Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score, presented by AARP: Kelly, Pappas, Edwards win N.H. primaries — Rhode Island picks gubernatorial nominees tonight — McConnell lays out Senate battlefield
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Date: Wed, 12 Sep 2018 08:03:15 -0600
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By Zach Montellaro | 09/12/2018 10:00 AM EDT

The following newsletter is an abridged version of Campaign Pro's Morning Score. For an earlier morning read on exponentially more races - and for a more comprehensive aggregation of the day's most important campaign news - sign up for Campaign Pro today. (http://www.politicopro.com/proinfo)
 
NEW HAMPSHIRE PICKS ITS CANDIDATES - New Hampshire Democrats chose Molly Kelly to top their midterm ticket as the gubernatorial nominee. Kelly, a former state lawmaker, bested Steve Marchand, a former Portsmouth mayor who ran to her left, by a comfortable margin. Kelly had the backing of much of the state's political class, including both Democratic Sens. Maggie Hassan and Jeanne Shaheen. 
 
In the 1st District, Chris Pappas handily won the Democratic nomination over Maura Sullivan. Like Kelly, Pappas also had the backing of the state's Democratic establishment. Sullivan, who moved to the state in 2017 and was dogged by charges that she was a carpetbagger, lost despite outraising Pappas and picking up the endorsement of EMILY's List. 
 
On the other side, Republicans selected Eddie Edwards, a former police chief, over state Sen. Andy Sanborn. The primary turned nasty with the candidates hurling attacks at each other: Edwards called out alleged workplace harassment from Sanborn while Sanborn called Edwards the establishment pick. The district is rated "lean Democrat" in POLITICO's race ratings. You can see the full results from the state here.
 
ANOTHER PRIMARY PREVIEW - Voters are heading to the polls in Rhode Island today (that's right, a Wednesday primary), where the main attraction is the gubernatorial battle on both sides of the ticket. Democratic Gov. Gina Raimondo is facing a challenge from her left from former state Secretary of State Matt Brown. The Wall Street Journal's Jennifer Levitz on the race: "Polling is scarce, but recent negative advertising against Mr. Brown by the Raimondo campaign suggests the governor is taking her challenger seriously. Ms. Raimondo was viewed favorably by 50% of voters in a poll released in August. Her challenges have included the state's recent loss of the Red Sox AAA affiliate baseball team
 to Massachusetts. Mr. Brown, a Columbia University and Yale Law School graduate who made an aborted 2006 run for the Senate, is endorsed by Our Revolution, the political organization created by loyalists of Sen. Bernie Sanders (I., Vt.). The incumbent has been endorsed by Democratic heavy-hitters, such as former Vice President Joseph Biden."
 
On the Republican side, Allan Fung is seen as the favorite in a race that also includes Giovanni Feroce and Patricia Morgan. If both Raimondo and Fung win their respective primaries, the November election could be a hotly contested one. In a 2014 matchup, Raimondo beat Fung by just 4 points, with an independent candidate picking up 20 percent of the vote. POLITICO currently rates the race as leans Democratic.
 
Good Wednesday morning. As always email me at [email-masked] or DM me at @ZachMontellaro. 
 
Email the great Campaign Pro team at [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked] and [email-masked] and [email-masked]. Follow them on Twitter: @PoliticoScott, @ec_schneider, @DanielStrauss4, @JamesArkin and @MaggieSeverns.
 
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Days until the 2018 election: 55.
 
Upcoming election dates. - Sept. 13: New York (state-level) primaries.
 
MITCH'S BATTLEFIELD - Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell laid out what he saw as the Senate battlefield, less than two months from Election Day. NBC News' Frank Thorp V and Rebecca Shabad: "'We know this is going to be a very challenging election," he said. McConnell said Senate races were 'dead-even' in Arizona, Nevada, Tennessee, Montana, North Dakota, Missouri, Indiana, West Virginia and Florida. 'All of them too close to call and every one of them is like a knife fight in an alley,' he said. ... McConnell also acknowledged Tuesday that the Texas Senate race between incumbent Republican Ted Cruz and Democratic Rep. Beto O'Rourke has been tightening. ... 'I think Ted's got a
 competitive race, by all indications. We certainly expect to win in Texas, but I think he does have a competitive race,' he said."
 
- The super PAC aligned with McConnell, Senate Majority PAC, unleashed a major ad blitz in several of those states. USA Today's Fredreka Schouten: SLF "is unleashing a $6.4 million advertising onslaught on Tuesday as the fall midterm campaign begins in earnest. ... In all, the Senate Leadership Fund has budgeted $60 million for the midterms, according to figures provided first to USA TODAY. A nonprofit arm of the group, One Nation, already has spent $38 million. ... In addition to [$1.1 million in] Tennessee, the Senate Leadership Fund is targeting its TV, radio and digital ads in five other states this week, officials told USA TODAY. The group will spend $1.8 million in Missouri, $1.4
 million in Indiana, $1 million in Nevada, $800,000 in West Virginia and $350,000 in North Dakota."
 
- But the Senate's schedule will do Democrats no favors, POLITICO's Burgess Everett reports: McConnell "is planning to keep the chamber in session for a significant portion of October if not four entire weeks, costing Democrats key campaign trail days and allowing the chamber to continue its work into the fall, according to five Republican officials." 
 
** Presented by AARP: There's only one true deciding factor in this year's elections: 50-plus voters. They won't be ignored and their votes are up for grabs. Medicare, Social Security, support for family caregivers, and prescription drug costs are all on the line-so you can be sure they'll be voting in record numbers. 
aarp.org/vote **
 
YOUNG GUN ADDS - The NRCC added AZ-01's Wendy Rogers and AZ-09's Steve Ferrara the final stage of its "Young Guns" program, its list of Republican candidates running in top battleground districts.
 
POLLS POLLS POLLS - A new poll in the Nevada Senate race has GOP Sen. Dean Heller virtually tied with GOP Rep. Jacky Rosen. The Suffolk University poll has Rosen at 42 percent among likely voters, with 41 percent backing Heller. It was conducted from Sept. 5-10 and surveyed 500 likely voters.
 
MIDTERM MESSAGING - Democrats and Republicans have both made the future of health care in the country central to their campaigns - with some Democrats promoting Medicare for All, and Republicans running against it. NBC News' Benjy Sarlin, Lauren Egan and Shabad: "The vast majority of the Republican attacks cite the $32 trillion cost estimate of a Bernie Sanders-backed proposal to cover all Americans with a more generous version of Medicare. Many Republicans ads also warn that new health care programs would harm traditional Medicare. A National Republican Congressional Committee website that compiles opposition research is currently dominated by 'Medicare for All' references. ...
 
"Taken together, the broadsides amount to the first sustained critique of single-payer health care from the right and a preview of the opposition it would face en route to passage. That makes November's elections an early test for the Democratic politicians, activists and voters who have made a transformative overhaul of the health care system their party's North Star."
 
- Another health care battle is giving Democrats a boost down the ballot. State attorney general candidates are seizing on a lawsuit looking to abolish the Affordable Care Act. Pro Health Care's Alice Miranda Ollstein: "Democratic challengers in battleground states like Florida, Wisconsin, Georgia and Arizona have attacked GOP incumbents for bringing the lawsuit - highlighting its threat to the health law's popular protections for people with pre-existing conditions. They've vowed to withdraw their states from the case or join with states defending Obamacare. The challengers are also going after GOP incumbents in Nevada, Ohio and other states who have not taken a side in the lawsuit,
 accusing them of 'staying silent' on the issue of pre-existing conditions and refusing to disclose 'where they stand.'"
 
STUCK ON THE BALLOT? - Rep. Chris Collins (R-N.Y.) sat for his first interview since he was indicted for alleged insider trading. Talking with WIVB's Dave Greber, Collins said he is supportive of the state party's effort to get him off the November ballot: "I've expressed to the county leaders, the eight county chairs, I will cooperate fully in deferring to them as they look for someone to replace me on the ballot. Other than that, I am not involved. The powers that be are working through that. I will leave that with them. And other than that, I'm going to be very supportive."
 
- But party officials are still not sure how they'll get him off the ballot, The New York Times' Lisa Foderaro reported.
 
FIRST IN SCORE - ON THE AIRWAVES - Sen. Deb Fischer (R-Neb.) released her first television ad, a bio spot that painted her as a D.C. outsider. "I'm not in D.C. to rub elbows with insiders, I'm there to get results for you," she says in the ad. There is a statewide buy of $300,000 backing the ad from Sept. 12-25.
 
- FIRST IN SCORE - House Majority PAC is going up with a pair of television ads hitting two Republicans in battleground districts over health care. The first ad in Virginia's 7th District says GOP Rep. Dave Brat has turned into a D.C. insider over his health care vote. "Dave Brat and Washington special interests play their game. We get shellacked," the ad's narrator said. The second ad - which was done in conjunction with Women Vote!, the independent expenditure arm of EMILY's List - criticizes Republican Dino Rossi in Washington's 8th District over taxes and health care, citing his career as a state lawmaker. "After doing so much damage in Olympia, why would we ever send him to Congress?"
 the ad's narrator asks.
 
- FIRST IN SCORE - VoteVets, a Democratic outside group, is going up with an ad in Minnesota's 1st District that targets Republican Jim Hagedorn. The ad calls him a "Washington insider" and hits Hagedorn for his support of Republicans' health care plan. The ad will begin airing today with a $662,000 buy backing it over the next four weeks.
 
- Democrat Abigail Spanberger is up with a pair of new ads in VA-07, directly responding to the kerfuffle surrounding the USPS incorrectly releasing her security clearance application to the Congressional Leadership Fund. The first ad hits Brat and "his allies" for "smearing" her, saying "they've crossed the line." The second ad features a retired CIA officer saying attempts to tie her to terrorism are "unpatriotic."
 
43 ON THE TRAIL - Former President George W. Bush is fundraising for a handful of Republican House and Senate candidates. POLITICO's Alex Isenstadt: "Bush's tour will begin [this] morning, when he holds a closed-door event in Fort Worth for GOP Rep. Will Hurd. ... Then, on Friday, Bush will travel to Florida to hold a pair of events for Florida Gov. Rick Scott, who is in a pitched battle for a Senate seat. One of the fundraisers will benefit New Republican, a pro-Scott super PAC. Bush will return to the circuit next week, when he headlines a Sept. 19 fundraiser in Fort Worth for North Dakota Senate hopeful Kevin Cramer. The following day, Bush will hold a Dallas fundraiser for Texas Rep.
 Pete Sessions. ... Then, next month, Bush will host fundraisers for two Senate hopefuls: Josh Hawley of Missouri and Mike Braun of Indiana."
 
YIKES - A new attack ad from a GOP super PAC hammers Democratic Rep. Kyrsten Sinema, the party's Arizona Senate nominee, over comments she made about child prostitution when she was a state legislator. CNN's Manu Raju: "In a February 2007 state House hearing when she was an Arizona legislator, Sinema raised concerns about a bill that toughened penalties against individuals soliciting prostitutes, saying, 'I don't think that's fair.' As a former social worker at an elementary school, she said there were 'children at my school who were 12, 13 years old and some of these children looked older than me.' ...
 
"According to video of her remarks reviewed by CNN, Sinema did speak out against child trafficking in that hearing, and she eventually voted for the bill -- despite raising concerns about the measure. Sinema's campaign called the ad deeply misleading and said it obscured her record combating child trafficking. Campaign aides argued that Sinema has a history of seeking to stop child trafficking, pointing to several bills she worked to pass to address the matter while serving in the state Legislature." The ad from Defend Arizona.
 
KOCH WORLD - The Americans for Prosperity Foundation lost a court battle Tuesday to prevent the disclosure of its largest donors to California authorities. POLITICO's Josh Gerstein: "The Americans for Prosperity Foundation had argued that the state's rules requiring filing of the donor list violate the First Amendment by discouraging individuals from giving and by exposing them to threats and harassment. ... [A] three-judge panel of the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals unanimously reversed [a previous] ruling Tuesday, holding that the state had a legitimate need for the data and that the Koch-founded group had not shown a significant burden on donors. ... The groups on the losing side of the
 ruling could ask for review by a larger, 11-judge 9th Circuit panel or by the U.S. Supreme Court."
 
- Concerned Veterans for America, one of the groups in the Koch network, is backing a handful of Republican incumbents: Reps. David Young (IA-03), Rod Blum (IA-01), Brat, Hurd (TX-23), and Steve Chabot (OH-01).
 
WITH FRIENDS LIKE THESE... Democratic Rep. Henry Cuellar attended a fundraiser and invited his supporters to do the same for fellow Texan and GOP Rep. John Carter. My POLITICO Playbook colleagues: "It's incredibly rare for any lawmaker to help raise money for someone of the other party. But Cuellar raising money for Carter is even more shocking considering the Texas Republican is in a surprisingly tight race against Democratic standout candidate MJ Hegar. Adding to the drama: Hegar has been endorsed by the Blue Dog Coalition, of which Cuellar is a co-chair!"
 
- In Arizona, Democratic gubernatorial candidate David Garcia has not yet endorsed Sinema and vice versa, KPHO reported.
 
SUPREME COURT BATTLE - Activists have pledged over $1 million to Maine GOP Sen. Susan Collins' future opponent if she does not vote against Brett Kavanaugh's Supreme Court nomination. Collins is pushing back, telling The Wall Street Journal editorial board that "I have had three attorneys tell me that they think it is a clear violation of the federal law on bribery. ... Actually, two told me that; one told me it's extortion," while noting she has not made up her mind on Kavanaugh yet. The Washington Post's Eli Rosenberg reported that the director of the nonpartisan Campaign Legal Center said he thought it was illegal, while a spokesperson for Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in
 Washington called it "icky" but that it "doesn't rise to the level of bribery."
 
TRUMP OFF THE TRAIL - The president canceled a second rally this week due to Hurricane Florence. A rally in Missouri scheduled for Thursday has been axed, POLITICO's Matthew Choi reported.
 
CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "You see anything that's traditional these days? ... They don't need more than a couple of weeks to campaign," Sen. Richard Burr (R-N.C.) on McConnell's plan to keep the Senate in session for much of October.
 
** Presented by AARP: Americans 50 and over are the nation's most powerful voting bloc. In fact, more than 60 million of them voted in 2016-and this year, they're more motivated than ever to making sure that their voices are heard in Washington. 
They're frustrated with broken government. And they're fed up with politicians who'd rather get into fights than get results. The issues they care about most including Medicare, Social Security, support for family caregivers and prescription drug costs, are all on the line. America's 50-plus voters have put the candidates on notice. Anyone who ignores them will feel it on Election Day. aarp.org/vote **
 
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