Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score, presented by AARP: Raimondo, Fung win RI-GOV primaries — Previewing the New York state primaries — Fox News polls show handful of tight Senate races
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Date: Thu, 13 Sep 2018 08:03:03 -0600
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By Zach Montellaro | 09/13/2018 10:00 AM EDT

The following newsletter is an abridged version of Campaign Pro's Morning Score. For an earlier morning read on exponentially more races - and for a more comprehensive aggregation of the day's most important campaign news - sign up for Campaign Pro today. (http://www.politicopro.com/proinfo)
 
RHODE ISLAND RERUN - There were no upsets in Rhode Island last night. Democratic Gov. Gina Raimondo handily beat back a challenge from former Secretary of State Matt Brown, who ran to her left. On the other side, Cranston Mayor Allan Fung won the Republican primary over state Rep. Patricia Morgan. The results set up a rematch of the 2014 gubernatorial election, in which Raimondo beat Fung by 4 points, with a third-party candidate drawing about 20 percent of the vote.
 
THE LAST PRIMARY PREVIEW - We head back to New York today for the last primary of the season, where voters will pick nominees for state offices (yes, state and federal primaries are held on different days). The top of the ticket features Democratic Gov. Andrew Cuomo facing a primary challenge from actor Cynthia Nixon. Nixon has ran to Cuomo's left, bashing him on everything from the MTA to a culture of corruption she says he has fostered. Cuomo has moved left on some issues to try to cut off her attacks, and has presented himself as the nominee best prepared to combat President Donald Trump's policies within the borders of the Empire State. A recent poll from Siena College suggests a
 landslide, with Cuomo leading by 30 points. But Nixon has told supporters: "Don't believe the polls." And Cuomo has been hamstrung by a series of eleventh-hour self-inflicted wounds, "from the botched opening of the new Tappan Zee Bridge, which he had named for his father, to his campaign's involvement in the distribution of campaign literature implying, without evidence, that Nixon is anti-Semitic," reports POLITICO's Dana Rubinstein. The winner will face Republican Marcus Molinaro.
 
The state attorney general Democratic primary has also garnered attention for the diversity of candidates. Four have emerged to replace former state Attorney General Eric Schneiderman, who resigned following assault allegations: Letitia James, Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney, Leecia Eve and Zephyr Teachout. James has picked up the endorsement of the state party. James and Eve are African-American women, Maloney is New York's first openly gay congressman, and Teachout is a soon-to-be-mom. Whoever wins could be a thorn in the president's side: Much of Trump's business empire resides in the state, setting up the chance for potential investigations. The New York Times' Jeffrey Mays takes a deeper
 look at the race.
 
Good Thursday morning. A reminder: New York is the greatest state in the nation. As always email me at [email-masked] or DM me at @ZachMontellaro. 
 
Email the great Campaign Pro team at [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked] and [email-masked] and [email-masked]. Follow them on Twitter: @PoliticoScott, @ec_schneider, @DanielStrauss4, @JamesArkin and @MaggieSeverns.
 
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Join POLITICO for a special Playbook Elections event in Ohio on Sept. 20 to discuss how the 2018 midterm elections are shaping up. RSVP here.
 
Days until the 2018 election: 54.
 
POLLS POLLS POLLS - A handful of new polls from Fox News shows the Senate races in Arizona, Indiana, Missouri, North Dakota, and Tennessee are all close. In Arizona, Democratic Rep. Kyrsten Sinema leads Republican Rep. Martha McSally, 47 percent to 44 percent. In Indiana, Republican Mike Braun leads Democratic Sen. Joe Donnelly, 45 percent to 43 percent. In Missouri, Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill leads Republican Josh Hawley, 44 percent to 41 percent. In North Dakota, Republican Rep. Kevin Cramer leads Democratic Sen. Heidi Heitkamp, 48 percent to 44 percent. And, in Tennessee, Republican Rep. Marsha Blackburn leads former Democratic Gov. Phil Bredesen 47 percent to 44 percent (Click
 through for the toplines and some analysis from my colleague James Arkin).
 
- A new poll in New York's 19th District shows GOP Rep. John J. Faso and Democrat Antonio Delgado are locked in a tight race. The Monmouth University poll has three models: In the model using all potential voters, Delgado is up, 45 percent to 43 percent. In a historical midterm model, Delgado is up, 48 percent to 45 percent. And, in a Democratic turnout surge scenario, he's leading, 49 percent to 43 percent. The poll surveyed 401 likely voters in the district from Sept. 6-10.
 
YEAR OF THE WOMAN - With an increasing number of women running for office, candidates are feeling more comfortable with their children on the trail. The New York Times' Kate Zernike: "Female candidates with young children have traditionally faced skepticism: 'Who's going to take care of the kids?' voters ask. Women have tended to wait until children were out of the house to run, or, if they didn't wait, were advised to keep the kids out of the picture. ... This year, with a record number of women running for office and a surge of energy among female voters, candidates are pushing back on that bias, arguing that motherhood not only doesn't disqualify them, it makes them more qualified."
 
WEB WARS - Two major outside groups are going up with a major ad blitz. Campaign Pro's James Arkin: "Priorities USA and Senate Majority PAC, two top Democratic super PACs, are teaming up to spend $21 million on digital ads in nine battleground Senate races. ... The vast majority of the funds - $18 million - will be spent in five states: Florida, Indiana, Missouri and North Dakota, where Democrats are on defense, and Arizona, where Republicans are defending an open seat. The additional $3 million will go to four states: Montana and West Virginia, where Democratic incumbents are running, and Tennessee and Nevada, where Republicans are on defense."
 
REDISTRICTING BATTLE - For Our Future and the National Democratic Redistricting Committee are teaming up for a $750,000 voter contact program in "key legislative districts" in Michigan, Ohio and Wisconsin. The National Redistricting Action Fund, the 501(c)(4) affiliate of the NDRC, also announced a $250,000 investment in Voters Not Politicians, a group pushing for an independent citizens redistricting commission in Michigan. 
 
** Presented by AARP: There's only one true deciding factor in this year's elections: 50-plus voters. They won't be ignored and their votes are up for grabs. Medicare, Social Security, support for family caregivers, and prescription drug costs are all on the line-so you can be sure they'll be voting in record numbers. 
aarp.org/vote **
 
ON THE AIRWAVES - Democrats are still spending a lot of money on television. But after some primary upsets powered by online advertising, strategists are pushing for a larger focus on online advertising. The Daily Beast's Gideon Resnick and Sam Stein: "But not everyone is on board, raising the specter of bitter internal fights over strategic vision in the critical months before the midterm elections and into the 2020 presidential contest. ... 'Digital is not the future, it is the present and that's a major problem for us,' said Howard Dean, the former DNC chair whose 2004 campaign pioneered using the internet to raise large sums through small donations. 'It is a major problem because
 Republicans are still kicking our ass.'"
 
AD ROUNDUP - The airwaves are officially flooded, with dozens of new ads landing Wednesday. Some highlights (Pro subscribers, click through for all the ads): The NRCC released ads in 14 districts, the DCCC had a pair of ads spoofing Amazon's "Alexa" commercials in TX-07, and education took center stage in gubernatorial races.
 
- The NRCC is going in big for GOP Rep. Barbara Comstock. On top of the new ad it released in Virginia's 10th District, NBC News' Carrie Dann reported the group has placed $4.8 million in ad buys in the district.
 
- Two of those NRCC ads, in MI-08 and AZ-02, featured criticism the late Sen. John McCain had made of the Democratic candidates, which disappointed McCain's family. More from James and yours truly: "'The family is disappointed that John's image is being weaponized this election cycle so soon after his passing, and they had hoped there would be a more appropriate amount of time for people to think about his final message before they began to politicize him,' [family friend and former advisor to the senator Rick] Davis told POLITICO. ... A source close to McCain's family said the House Republican campaign committee did not reach out to McCain's family or associates of the senator to seek
 approval to use his comments. ...
 
"Democrat Tom Malinowski, who is running in a battleground New Jersey House district, is also running an ad featuring McCain. ... Malinowski reached out to aides close to McCain to seek permission to use his comments in his campaign, according to a person with knowledge of that conversation. The person said no objections were raised."
 
FIRST IN SCORE - ENDORSEMENT CORNER - Future Forum PAC, which was founded and chaired by Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-Calif.) and is focused on "millennial engagement," is endorsing the "Future 40," a group of Democratic candidates across the country. It has also contributed $50,000 to candidates. "In 2010 [the Republicans] had a 'Young Guns' program, but that was really young, white male guns," Swalwell told Morning Score. "We're very proud of the diversity [in this group], in every way: region, gender, religion, ethnicity. A group that looks like Americans."
 
DOWN IN MISSISSIPPI - Democrat Mike Espy is hoping the three-way Senate race will work in his favor, but it doesn't seem to be a clear path to victory. McClatchy's William Douglas: "Epsy ... is counting on Mississippi's runoff election system in his bid to become the ruby red state's first African American U.S. senator since Reconstruction and its first Democratic senator in nearly four decades. ... The runoff is baked into Espy's campaign strategy against Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith and conservative firebrand Chris McDaniel, Republicans who he'll face in a so-called 'jungle' primary special election Nov. 6. ...
 
But "some African American lawmakers and civil rights leaders have long been wary of runoffs, claiming the system diminishes the chances of African American candidates winning elections."
 
AWKWARD - The Ohio Democratic party is at war with an unlikely adversary: a labor union, made up of its own employees. Pro Employment & Immigration's Ian Kullgren: "In bruising negotiations over the past several weeks, party leaders have resisted pay increases and other union demands and hired a management-side law firm to push back. One of the party's negotiators is even a registered Republican. ... Campaign workers, well aware of the leverage that the election deadline gives them, are beginning to whisper about a strike if party leaders don't come around soon. The parties are scheduled to meet today for another round of negotiations. ...
 
"The dispute tests the practicality of allowing unions to organize political campaigns. In July the Ohio Democrats became the first state party to recognize a chapter of the Campaign Workers Guild, which seeks to organize campaign workers nationwide."
 
PRESIDENTIAL ADVICE - Another former president is weighing in ahead of the midterms: Jimmy Carter is warning Democrats to not veer too far to the left, lest they lose centrists. The AP's Bill Barrow: "'Independents need to know they can invest their vote in the Democratic Party,' Carter said Tuesday during his annual report at his post-presidential center and library in Atlanta, where he offered caution about the political consequences should Democrats 'move to a very liberal program, like universal health care.'"
 
2020 WATCH - To get a good preview of the 2020 president election, look at the 2018 early-state primaries. POLITICO's Natasha Korecki: "Democrats are sick of losing. In statewide contests, they didn't back hard-line Bernie Sanders or Hillary Clinton-aligned candidates so much as candidates who had a message they care about and a solid campaign operation. Even typically left-leaning Iowa Democrats ushered in a more centrist candidate who seemed best positioned to win in a general election. And in each of the gubernatorial contests in these states, old-school campaign tactics still seemed to work - the Democrat who spent the most on TV messaging was the victor."
 
- JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon, whose name is one of the what feels like hundreds kicked around as a potential 2020 candidate, took a swing at Trump ("I'm smarter than he is") and said he thinks he could beat him, before quickly walking it back and saying he won't run, via CNBC's Hugh Son. 
 
THE GREEN TEAM - The League of Conservation Voters plans on spending $60 million by the end of the cycle backing Democrats. The Washington Post's Dino Grandoni: "In total, LCV plans to spend over $25 million on House and Senate races, hoping to help Democrats keep Senate seats in Montana and Ohio and to flip them in Arizona and Nevada. Another $25 million will go to governor, state legislator and other down-ballot races." The memo from LCV.
 
TALKING TAXES - Both Missouri Senate candidates published their tax returns Wednesday after the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reported that neither had released them. The Kansas City Star's Steve Vockrodt on the releases: "McCaskill and her husband [Joseph Shepard] file their tax returns separately. McCaskill's campaign provided The Star with her full 2017 tax return Wednesday afternoon. It showed that she made $266,096 in 2017, the bulk of it coming from her $174,000 Senate salary and $85,521 from pensions and annuities. Shepard, a businessman, accounts for much of the couple's net worth. Hawley's returns show that he and his wife made $323,620 in 2017, mostly from earnings, business income and
 capital gains."
 
CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "I think I'll be 184 before I'm in range of being Financial Services chairman," Rep. Jim Himes (D-Conn.) to The New York Times on the Democratic Party's seniority system keeping younger members out of leadership roles.
 
** Presented by AARP: Americans 50 and over are the nation's most powerful voting bloc. In fact, more than 60 million of them voted in 2016-and this year, they're more motivated than ever to making sure that their voices are heard in Washington. 
They're frustrated with broken government. And they're fed up with politicians who'd rather get into fights than get results. The issues they care about most including Medicare, Social Security, support for family caregivers and prescription drug costs, are all on the line. America's 50-plus voters have put the candidates on notice. Anyone who ignores them will feel it on Election Day. aarp.org/vote **
 
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