Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score, presented by AARP: Cuomo sails to primary victory — Open seats exacerbate GOP’s House troubles — Obama rallies for Cordray in Ohio
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 14 Sep 2018 08:02:16 -0600
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By Zach Montellaro | 09/14/2018 10:00 AM EDT

The following newsletter is an abridged version of Campaign Pro's Morning Score. For an earlier morning read on exponentially more races - and for a more comprehensive aggregation of the day's most important campaign news - sign up for Campaign Pro today. (http://www.politicopro.com/proinfo)
 
CUOMO CRUISES - New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo cruised to a Democratic primary victory over actor Cynthia Nixon, dispatching her by about 30 points. POLITICO New York's Laura Nahmias: "Now as Cuomo positions himself for a possible 2020 presidential run, he'll do so as the head of New York's sizable Democratic majority in a state that fashions itself as a leader in challenging Trump's actions to push the country to the right. And unlike some Democrats, the primary showed Cuomo's willingness to move where the party is going.
 
"'Even though he's been a centrist moderate Clintonista he has shown that he can be pushed to the progressive wing of the party rather swiftly and easily,' Fordham political science professor Christina Greer told POLITICO. ... The governor's victory - buoyed by a $30 million war chest and the endorsements of virtually all of New York's labor unions, its highest-profile elected officials and newspapers - came after months of at times bitter and often personal battles with Nixon".
 
Downballot, Letitia James won the Democratic primary for state attorney general by a comfortable margin, beating out Zephyr Teachout and Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney (because New York had two primary days for federal and state offices, Maloney was able to run in the primary for his congressional seat and will still be on the ballot come November). The race was framed, in part, as one to become one of the president's chief antagonists.
 
BATTLE FOR THE HOUSE - The huge number of House GOP retirements is digging the party into an even deeper hole in a year they're trying to beat back a blue wave. Campaign Pro's Elena Schneider from Issaquah, Wash., one of the open seats: "Of the 44 districts left open by incumbents who are retiring, resigning or seeking higher office, Democrats are targeting almost half of them. They need to gain 23 seats to win the House. ... 'Retirements and open seats could be our biggest problem right now,' said Brian Walsh, a Republican consultant who leads the pro-Trump outside group America First, which will spend on a handful of House races in 2018. 'New candidates have to fight their way through a
 primary and don't have the same fundraising ability and built-in name recognition [as incumbents]. That's a huge challenge.'
 
"In Washington, the GOP landed candidate Dino Rossi, a former state senator and candidate for governor and Senate who billed himself in an interview with Politico as a bipartisan deal maker tired of 'all the yelling in Washington.' In three unsuccessful statewide campaigns, Rossi won Washington's 8th District each time, building his name recognition along the way. ... Rossi's pedigree has some Republicans believing [retiring GOP Rep. Dave] Reichert's district could still be a bright spot on the House map, despite the gloomy national historical record. But the August primary results offered a harsh corrective to any budding optimism. ... 
 
"For both parties, running without an incumbent is a perennial problem. Democrats, too, must defend upward of a dozen open, Democrat-controlled seats in 2018. Unlike the GOP, the wind remains at their back. "
 
Happy Friday! Since he won his primary, Cuomo will not be the next author of Score. As always email me at [email-masked] or DM me at @ZachMontellaro. 
 
Email the great Campaign Pro team at [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked] and [email-masked] and [email-masked]. Follow them on Twitter: @PoliticoScott, @ec_schneider, @DanielStrauss4, @JamesArkin and @MaggieSeverns.
 
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Days until the 2018 election: 52.
 
OBAMA ON THE TRAIL - Former president Barack Obama went to Ohio to rally for longtime ally Richard Cordray in the state's gubernatorial battle. Campaign Pro's Daniel Strauss from Cleveland: "Obama urged supporters here to not only back Cordray, the director of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau in his administration, but to also rally voters to back the nominee regardless of party. ... The former president also dinged Republicans in Congress for taking too much credit for the U.S. recovery, and for not changing their message after years of being angry and critical when they were out of power and the economy was growing."
 
- A prominent consulting firm that did work for the CFPB when Cordray was director is now doing work for his campaign. The AP's Julie Carr Smyth: "Records reviewed by The Associated Press show Washington-based GMMB recently has been making Ohio ad buys for Democrat Cordray's gubernatorial campaign ... GMMB's political work for Cordray, a Democrat who is a former director of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, follows Republican criticism that the bureau's decision to hire the firm under Cordray's watch was politically motivated. ... Cordray's campaign said there's nothing improper about the firm's work for the government or the campaign."
 
FIRST IN SCORE - POLLS POLLS POLLS - An internal poll from the DCCC has a tight race in New Jersey's 3rd District. The poll has Democrat Andy Kim leading GOP Rep. Tom MacArthur, 47 percent to 45 percent. The poll surveyed 523 likely voters from Sept. 4-5.
 
- The race in Pennsylvania's 7th District between Democrat Susan Wild and Republican Marty Nothstein is close. In a Monmouth University poll, Wild leads Nothstein, 46 percent to 40 percent, in an all potential voters model. In a historical midterm model, Wild is up 47 percent to 45 percent. And in a Democratic turnout surge model, she leads 48 percent to 44 percent. The poll was in the field September 5-9 and surveyed 401 voters.
 
CAMPAIGN FINANCE PROBLEMS - Republican Matt Rosendale, who is running for Senate in Montana, apparently had prior knowledge that the NRA would intervene in his race. The Daily Beast's Lachlan Markay (who authors the great newsletter Pay Dirt, which you should also read): "Chris Cox, the top political strategist for the NRA's Institute for Legislative Action (NRA-ILA), assured Montana Republican Matt Rosendale that the group would spend heavily to support his bid to unseat Sen. Jon Tester, Rosendale told attendees at a July event in Washington. ... 
 
"'I fully expect the NRA is going to come in ... in August sometime,' Rosendale said in response to a question about independent political spenders in the race. 'The Supreme Court confirmations are big. That's what sent the NRA over the line. Because in '12, with [Republican Senate nominee Denny Rehberg] they stayed out, they stayed out of Montana. But Chris Cox told me, he's like, 'We're going to be in this race.'' ... Neither the Rosendale campaign nor the NRA-ILA responded to requests for comment.' An audio recording of Rosendale's comments.
 
- Steny Hoyer, the second-ranking Democrat in the House, unveiled a government reform policy package that includes campaign finance changes he would push Democrats to pursue if they win the House. The Washington Post's Mike DeBonis: "On the campaign finance front, Hoyer said Democrats would move to increase disclosure requirements for 'dark money' nonprofit groups that can currently hide their donors, propose a new 48-hour disclosure requirement for independent political groups - matching the standard for candidates themselves - and create a new 'nondisclosure penalty' for super PACs that take steps to hide their donors. Hoyer also endorsed a system of public campaign financing for
 Congress, akin to the current system in presidential races."
 
CONSPIRACY THEORY - After President Donald Trump tweeted this morning that the death count in Puerto Rico from Hurricane Maria was inflated, Florida Republicans lined up to distance themselves from his lie. POLITICO Florida's Marc Caputo: "Even Trump's two top Florida allies, Gov. Rick Scott and GOP gubernatorial candidate Ron DeSantis, disagreed with his insensitive comments. Exploding on Twitter two months before Election Day, Trump's comments have the potential to intensify Boricua voter registration efforts and perhaps election turnout."
 
NOT SO BLIND? - Republican Gov. Rick Scott, who is running for the Senate in Florida, has set up a blind trust to handle his vast wealth. But it may not be totally blind. POLITICO Florida's Matt Dixon and Alexandra Glorioso: The trust "includes tens of millions of dollars in investments in the exact same companies as his wife, Ann. The holdings give the appearance of what one ethics attorney calls a 'common investment strategy' that could undercut the intended independence of Scott's trust, a POLITICO analysis of financial disclosure reports filed as part of Scott's Senate campaign shows. ... Scott campaign spokesman Chris Hartline said Scott does not talk with Ann about her investments. ...
 
"[U]p to $200 million in family investments are in the name of Ann Scott and were not put in the trust. Those investments could be viewed while Scott was making decisions as governor and were not required to be disclosed because Florida does not require elected officials to disclose investments held by spouses or other family members. The new federal disclosure forms, filed as part of Scott's Senate race, also show a pattern of Scott and his wife both investing hundreds of millions of dollars in the same companies, raising questions about how shielded Scott was from the contents of the trust."
 
HURRICANE PREP? - More campaigns have booked airtime on The Weather Channel as Hurricane Florence nears. The Hill's Reid Wilson: "The Washington-based NCC Media found 83 political advertisers are purchasing airtime on the channel, up from 59 last week. ... On the candidate side, Ohio Attorney General and gubernatorial candidate Mike DeWine's (R) campaign, Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Wolf's (D) campaign and Connecticut gubernatorial candidate Ned Lamont (D) are all running advertising on The Weather Channel. The Senate Leadership Fund, which has spent more than $19 million on advertisements for Republican candidates, is the largest outside group buying Weather Channel time."
 
FIRST IN SCORE - ON THE AIRWAVES - Majority Forward is going up with two ads hitting Republican Senate nominees in Missouri and West Virginia. The first ad accuses Missouri nominee Josh Hawley of "climbing the ladder on your back" and being a career politician. The West Virginia ad hits Republican Patrick Morrisey, saying he has "forgotten his roots," citing his failed 2000 New Jersey House campaign and lobbying.
 
- Republicans candidates, both men and women, have largely embraced Trump in their ads. In ads from Aug. 1 to Sept. 3, "26 percent of Republican ads aired in congressional races since August 1 mentioned Trump in a positive light," according to new data from the Wesleyan Media Project. Another interesting tidbit: Democratic women candidates are more likely to mention health care in their ads than Democratic men.
 
** Presented by AARP: There's only one true deciding factor in this year's elections: 50-plus voters. They won't be ignored and their votes are up for grabs. Medicare, Social Security, support for family caregivers, and prescription drug costs are all on the line-so you can be sure they'll be voting in record numbers. 
aarp.org/vote **
 
MIDTERM MESSAGING - DCCC chair Ben Ray Luj&aacute;n is telling Democrats to not talk about Trump. His comments to reporters, via my colleague Isaac Dovere in Playbook: "Our candidates don't have to talk about him because he's going to talk about himself for us. President Trump is going to bring more attention to himself than anyone: He'll remind the American people of every investigation he's involved with, every disgusting tweet that is out there, of all the positions that the Trump administration has taken that is making it harder for the American people." His NRCC counterpart Steve Stivers is telling Republicans that they "they need to 'motivate Trump voters,' 'win married women,'
 'compete among suburban voters' and 'win or tie independents'," also via Playbook.
 
- Outgoing House Speaker Paul Ryan is urging his colleagues to focus on one thing: the economy. POLITICO's Rachel Bade: "In a closed-door meeting Thursday morning - House Republicans' last political conference before Election Day - the retiring speaker told members to spend the final sprint of the midterm elections tuning out the drama of Washington and preaching economic gains. ... Ryan vowed to help them, promising that 'I am going to spend the next 54 days ... spend[ing] time in almost every battleground district until the last vote is counted.'"
 
TRUMP (JR) ON THE TRAIL - Donald Trump Jr. headlined a fundraiser for GOP Rep. Jim Renacci's Ohio Senate campaign Thursday.
 
- Trump Jr. will also head to Maine to raise money for the state party and Republican Eric Brakey, the Senate nominee, the Bangor Daily News' Jake Bleiberg reported.
 
2020 WATCH - But not the presidential race! The Latino Victory Fund is launching an effort to draft Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego to run in 2020 in the Arizona Senate special election. Campaign Pro's James Arkin: "'It is time that Arizona is represented by a Latino in the U.S. Senate,' [LVF president Crist&oacute;bal] Alex told POLITICO. 'Congressman Gallego is a combat veteran, a Harvard graduate, a community leader and a progressive champion. Latino Victory believes that he is the most qualified person to represent Arizonans in the Senate, and we will do everything possible to ensure that our community is represented.'"
 
CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "You know what my goal would be if I decided to run for Senate? To qualify in the 33 states," perennial candidate Rocky de la Fuente on his 2020 plans to Vice News.
 
** Presented by AARP: Americans 50 and over are the nation's most powerful voting bloc. In fact, more than 60 million of them voted in 2016-and this year, they're more motivated than ever to making sure that their voices are heard in Washington. 
They're frustrated with broken government. And they're fed up with politicians who'd rather get into fights than get results. The issues they care about most including Medicare, Social Security, support for family caregivers and prescription drug costs, are all on the line. America's 50-plus voters have put the candidates on notice. Anyone who ignores them will feel it on Election Day. aarp.org/vote **
 
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