Subject: POLITICO Playbook: A potential GOP October surprise
From: "Anna Palmer Jake Sherman Daniel Lippman" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 20 Sep 2018 04:06:34 -0600
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Presented by UnitedHealth Group: Playbook is POLITICO's must-read briefing on what's driving the day in Washington                Sep 20, 2018 View in browser                   
 By Anna Palmer, Jake Sherman and Daniel Lippman 
         
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              DRIVING THE DAY      
IN TODAY'S NYT ... "SPECIAL REPORT" ... "THE PLOT TO SUBVERT AN ELECTION," by Scott Shane and Mark Mazzetti. The story ... The print cover

REPUBLICANS' OCTOBER SURPRISE? -- KYLE CHENEY: "Democratic operatives are growing anxious that Republicans working to undermine the FBI's Russia probe are teeing up a series of document dumps meant to gin up GOP voters ahead of the midterm elections.

"After weeks of hand-wringing, President Donald Trump on Monday ordered the declassification of a slew of documents related to the FBI's long-running investigation into the Trump campaign's potential connections to Russia. The move came on the heels of top House Republicans revealing that they may also release documents related to their probes into Trump-Russia ties, as well as anti-Trump bias at the FBI and Justice Department.

"The White House and GOP leaders have cited 'transparency' as their motive, and Trump has suggested the documents will show anti-Trump bias in the FBI led the bureau to supercharge its 2016 Russia probe based on flimsy evidence.

"But Democrats see a more sinister plan: to taint special counsel Robert Mueller's ongoing Russia probe, while simultaneously motivating Trump's political base on the precipice of an election in which Democrats are favored to make gains. To Democrats, the situation has eerie similarities to 2016, when WikiLeaks' slow-drip daily release of internal Clinton campaign emails hobbled Hillary Clinton's candidacy and offered regular fodder for Republicans." POLITICO

THE ATLANTIC'S ELAINA PLOTT: "A New Petition From House Democrats Could Complicate Nancy Pelosi's Future: Weeks before the midterms, lawmakers could be in the potentially awkward position of taking sides in the brewing leadership fight": "In a move described as a direct shot at Nancy Pelosi, some Democrats are trying to make it more difficult for one of their own to become speaker of the House. 

"At least 10 Democrats in the lower chamber have signed onto a letter to Caucus Chair Joe Crowley seeking a change to caucus rules that would raise the number of votes required to nominate a candidate for speaker. Current rules mandate that a nominee receive support from only a simple majority of caucus members before advancing to the floor for a vote. The letter requests that threshold be changed to 218, a majority of the House." The Atlantic

-- REALITY: THIS IS LIKELY to be defeated in the Democratic Caucus soundly. Five percent of Democrats signed this letter. This is a way for Democrats to let off steam, but it underscores, in part, that they have no one else to run against Pelosi -- for now. Pelosi supporters even have a mechanism to quash this before it comes up for a vote. In some ways, this could hurt the anti-Pelosi movement by showing that, at the moment, process is the only tool they have to go up against her.

IF THIS COMES TO A VOTE, it will be a secret ballot. 

HERE'S SOMETHING FEW PEOPLE KNOW. Rule 34 of the House Democratic rules says this: "With respect to voting in the House of Representatives for Speaker and other officers of the House, for each committee Chair, and for membership of committees, a majority vote of those present and voting at a Democratic Caucus shall bind all Members of the Caucus."

-- THAT MEANS every Democrat must vote for the candidate who emerges as the nominee from the caucus vote. That means if this does not pass, if the majority of the caucus nominates Pelosi, all Democrats must support her on the floor. In the past, Democrats haven't enforced this. But they can, and people could be out of committee assignments if they buck the nominee.

Good Thursday morning. JAKE and ANNA are in Columbus, Ohio, this morning to interview Democratic gubernatorial candidate RICHARD CORDRAY and REP. JIM RENACCI (R-OHIO), who is running for the Senate. Watch the livestream of the event starting at 8:45 a.m.

THE LATEST ON BRETT KAVANAUGH ... "'We're very confident:' Trump, GOP growing more bullish about Kavanaugh's survival," by Nancy Cook: "The White House and its allies have taken no steps to line up a new nominee, according to four people familiar with the confirmation process. 'We're very confident,' one Republican in touch with the White House said when asked whether Kavanaugh will survive the firestorm. Even so, Kavanaugh's Washington allies continue to hunt for evidence - scouring everything from high school yearbooks to real estate records - that might reveal Ford to be acting out of personal or political bias, or simply misrecalling a single night when they were in high school."
 POLITICO

-- @ABCPolitics: "Asked by @karentravers whether he feels anything for Kavanaugh accuser Christine Blasey Ford, Pres. Trump says, 'I'd have to see what she has to say. I've given her a lot of time, the Senate has given her a lot of time...we've held up the whole hearing.'" Video

TOP TALKER -- ELIANA JOHNSON: "Kavanaugh saga sets Washington rumor mill on fire"
       
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THE BACK STORY - "How 65 women came to Kavanaugh's defense in matter of hours," by AP's Jennifer Peltz and Michael Kunzelman: "It started as a series of phone calls among old high-school friends and ended up embroiling 65 women in the firestorm over a sexual assault allegation that could shape the Supreme Court. ... 

"Several said they interacted with him extensively through sporting events, dances, parties and other socializing or the phone calls that occupied teenage weeknights in the pre-texting era. .... At least one, though, hadn't spent time or talked one-on-one with him but still felt comfortable attaching her name based on the social situations they shared." AP

-- "'I told her that I believed her': Calif. lawmaker describes meeting with Kavanaugh accuser," by WaPo's Mike DeBonis: "Rep. Anna G. Eshoo (D-Calif.) met July 20 for roughly 90 minutes with Ford, who lives in her Bay Area district and is a professor of psychology at Palo Alto University, after Ford contacted Eshoo's office about Kavanaugh. 'It was more than obvious to me that she bore the scars of what she had been subjected to,' Eshoo said in an interview with The Washington Post on Wednesday. 

"'She doesn't have a political bone in her body. And she obviously was really terrified about what could become of her and her family.' 'At the end of the meeting, I told her that I believed her," she added. 'In telling her story, you know, there were details to it, and I believed her.'" WaPo

-- "Republicans on K Street rally to Kavanaugh's defense," by Theo Meyer: "The women rushing to Kavanaugh's defense include Candi Wolff, the top lobbyist for Citigroup; Sara Fagen, a consultant at DDC Public Affairs; and Laura Cox Kaplan, a former lobbyist for PricewaterhouseCoopers who now hosts the 'She Said/She Said' podcast.

"Many of them belong to a class of connected Washingtonians who typically try to avoid upsetting their corporate clients by weighing in on Beltway scandals. But they decided to speak because of their friendships with Kavanaugh, who's deeply integrated in the Republican social scene in Washington. Kaplan said in an interview that it was 'physically painful' to watch the scandal unfold." POLITICO

CLICKER -- Time's new cover has pictures of Kavanaugh and Clarence Thomas both swearing an oath to tell the truth about their respective personal controversies. The cover

KNOWING CHRISTINE BLASEY FORD -- "From the Anonymity of Academia to the Center of a Supreme Court Confirmation," by NYT's Elizabeth Williamson, Rebecca R. Ruiz, Emily Steel, Grace Ashford and Steve Eder: "When [Samantha] Guerry circulated the letter from the [Holton-Arms] class of 1984, she found that Dr. Blasey's story resonated deeply. 'I was very much surprised by how many of my classmates wrote back to say to say they had traumatic experiences in high school,' she said. 'When they heard Christine's story, it struck a chord for them.' Among them was Cheryl Amitay, a chief regulator at the Department of Veterans Affairs living in Washington.

"Ms. Amitay said she was leaving a house party during her sophomore year when two male teenagers who had been drinking pushed her up against a car and groped her. One reached under her skirt, she said, and tore off her underwear. 'I will never forget that,' she said. 'When my mom picked me up she knew something was wrong, but I didn't say anything.' 'You never say a thing,' she went on. 'You feel like a jerk.'" NYT

-- "Portrait of Kavanaugh Accuser Christine Blasey Ford: Thorough, Guarded, Accomplished Academic," by WSJ's Alexandra Berzon, Sadie Gurman and Zusha Elinson: WSJ

FACT CHECK -- "Trump claim that FBI can't probe Kavanaugh allegations is wrong, ex-officials say," by Josh Gerstein: "The White House could order the FBI to investigate the sexual assault allegation against Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh, several former senior White House and Justice Department officials from both parties said Wednesday, contradicting President Donald Trump's claims that doing so would exceed the FBI's mandate. ... [O]fficials who have had direct roles in the nomination and background check process said it's common, as part of the FBI's vetting of presidential nominees for judicial posts and executive branch jobs, to investigate matters that do not qualify as federal
 crimes.

"'What happened here is actually not unusual,' said John Yoo, a senior Justice Department official under President George W. Bush. 'The Judiciary Committee will often say to the Justice Department: "Can you send the agents back out and find out if this is true, find out what happened with this?" ... The normal procedure for this would have been to send the FBI out,' Yoo added." POLITICO

THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION -- "FEMA chief considered quitting as feud with Homeland Security secretary boiled over," by WaPo's Frances Stead Sellers, William Wan, Josh Dawsey and Nick Miroff: "With his home state flooded and the death toll rising, FEMA Administrator William 'Brock' Long was on the verge of quitting this week. On Sunday, his bitter feud with Homeland Security Secretary Kirstjen Nielsen seemed as though it would abate. 

"The two agreed to a truce so that the Trump administration's response to Hurricane Florence would not be further overshadowed by the deepening acrimony between them since the disclosure of an internal investigation into Long's use of government vehicles to travel between Washington and his home in North Carolina. Nothing would happen to Long in the near term, Nielsen assured him, according to three senior government officials familiar with the conversation.

"Let's just get through the storm, she said. About 24 hours later, as Long's plane landed in North Carolina, he learned that the DHS Office of Inspector General had referred his case to federal prosecutors for a possible criminal investigation. He felt devastated and betrayed, according to the three government officials, who had knowledge of Long's reaction. 'It was FEMA personnel who convinced him not to quit,' said one congressional aide briefed on the matter." WaPo

2018 WATCH -- NYT'S JONATHAN MARTIN: "Once '99 Percent Against Trump,' Dean Heller Calls Him 'Great Leader'": "Senator Dean Heller on Wednesday called President Trump 'a great leader' who had revived Nevada's economy, a striking departure from the arm's-length approach Mr. Heller took with Mr. Trump in the 2016 campaign and in the first months of his presidency.

"In a private conference call with White House aides, other Nevada Republican officials and local activists, Mr. Heller - the most endangered Senate Republican up for re-election this November - offered an unqualified embrace of the president.

"'Our arms are wide open,' Mr. Heller said on the call, held to drum up interest in Mr. Trump's campaign rally scheduled for Thursday in Las Vegas. 'We're so thrilled to have the president.' Mr. Heller has steadily moved closer to Mr. Trump, finally acknowledging last year that he voted for the president, but the senator has not gone as far in public as he did Wednesday. Mr. Heller memorably said in October 2016, weeks before the presidential election, that he was '100 percent against Clinton, 99 percent against Trump.'" NYT

-- "Tightening Texas race boosts Democrats' hopes of taking Senate: Reuters poll," by Reuters' Chris Kahn: "Among the bright spots for Democrats: U.S. Representative Beto O'Rourke of Texas had a 2-percentage-point lead over Cruz among likely voters in the state and U.S. Representative Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona had a 3-point lead over Republican congresswoman Martha McSally in the race to succeed U.S. Senator Jeff Flake, one of Trump's most vocal critics from within his own party. Both leads are within the poll's 4-percentage-point credibility intervals, a measure of precision, meaning the candidates are drawing about the same level of support." Reuters

MAGGIE SEVERNS -- "Democratic lawmakers launch PAC to elect more women to Congress": "A group of female Democratic members of Congress wants to be a 'major player' in closing the stubborn gender gap on Capitol Hill. Seven Democratic representatives are forming Elect Democratic Women, a new PAC aiming to elect women to Congress, where today only 20 percent of members are women. The organization will make donations to female candidates and hopes in the future to spend money in their races as well." POLITICO

-- NYT's Astead W. Herndon: "Utah Group Files Complaint Against Mia Love Over Fund-Raising"

THE INVESTIGATIONS -- "Michael Flynn to be sentenced Dec. 18," by Brent D. Griffiths: "Michael Flynn, President Donald Trump's former national security adviser, is set to be sentenced on Dec. 18, following months of delay after he pleaded guilty to lying to the FBI about his contacts with Russian officials during the transition." POLITICO 
           
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THE JUICE ... 

-- REP. DARRELL ISSA (R-CALIF.), who has been banging on the door trying to get an administration job for months, got nominated to head the U.S. Trade and Development Agency. 

-- GAVIN NEWSOM is going up with his first general-election ad this morning. His campaign is spending more than $1 million on the "California Dream" which focuses on his plan for children's education. The ad

TRUMP'S THURSDAY -- The president is flying to Las Vegas this afternoon to headline a 7 p.m. (PDT) political rally at the Las Vegas Convention Center. He's staying in Vegas tonight and will also sit down with Sean Hannity for his Fox News show.
                 PLAYBOOK READS         

PHOTO DU JOUR: President Donald Trump gives out packaged meals in New Bern, N.C., on Wednesday while visiting areas hit hard by Hurricane Florence. | Evan Vucci/AP Photo
   
HOT AT FOGGY BOTTOM -- "Pompeo cracks down, on improper use, of commas at State Department," by CNN's Michelle Kosinski and Jennifer Hansler: "Iran, North Korea, Syria and ... commas. While Mike Pompeo is focused on a number of key geopolitical concerns, an email obtained by CNN suggests that the secretary of state also appears to have had it, up to, here, with, the rampant, improper use of commas by State Department staff. In the last few months, two emails have gone out from Pompeo's top staff to employees throughout the State Department giving careful, meticulous instructions on comma usage. The latest email, sent in early September and obtained by CNN, gives 'updated guidance ...
 regarding correct use of commas in paper for Department principals.'

"'The Secretary has underscored the need for appropriate use of commas in his paper (both their inclusion and omission),' the email declares. It also notes that Pompeo prefers adherence to the Chicago Manual of Style, which states 'effective use of the comma involves good judgment, with the goal being ease of reading.' The email includes a long string of examples, including many from the Chicago Manual of Style, outlining when a comma should be added and when it should be excluded, and providing detailed explanations for both -- along with color-coded highlighting." CNN
           
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PLAYBOOK METRO SECTION -- "Jogger fatally stabbed in D.C.'s Logan Circle neighborhood in what police think was a random attack," by WaPo's Michael Brice-Saddler and Dana Hedgpeth: Wendy "Martinez graduated from Georgetown University with a master of arts in Latin American studies in 2012, according to a university spokesman. ... She earned an internship on Capitol Hill with Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart (R-Fla.) after graduating from Florida Atlantic University in 2006, her mother said. 

"From there, Martinez worked at the Nicaraguan Embassy, the Organization of American States and the Inter-American Development Bank before joining FiscalNote - a District-based management and technology company - two years ago. She was promoted at FiscalNote last year and most recently held a position as its chief of staff." WaPo

VALLEY TALK -- "Inside Facebook's Election 'War Room,'" by NYT's Sheera Frenkel and Mike Isaac in Menlo Park, Calif.: "On one wall, a half-dozen televisions will be tuned to CNN, MSNBC, Fox News and other major networks. A small paper sign with orange lettering taped to the glass door describes what's being built: 'War Room.' 

"Although it is not much to look at now, as of next week the space will be Facebook's headquarters for safeguarding elections. More than 300 people across the company are working on the initiative, but the War Room will house a team of about 20 focused on rooting out disinformation, monitoring false news and deleting fake accounts that may be trying to influence voters before elections in the United States, Brazil and other countries." NYT

MEDIAWATCH -- "Ian Buruma Is Out At The New York Review Of Books After Justifying The Decision To Publish Jian Ghomeshi's Essay," by BuzzFeed's Tasneem Nashrulla: "Ian Buruma, the editor of the New York Review of Books who sparked outrage after publishing an essay by Jian Ghomeshi, no longer works at the magazine, an NYRB spokesperson told BuzzFeed News on Wednesday. Buruma had defended his decision to publish Ghomeshi's essay in a widely criticized interview with Slate just five days before his ouster at the literary magazine." BuzzFeed
                 PLAYBOOKERS      
SPOTTED: Alex Ovechkin having a birthday party on Tuesday night with 30 people in the Glass House at Penn Quarter restaurant Dirty Habit. They dined on a custom burrata display, leg of lamb and truffle pasta after the team's preseason game against the Boston Bruins. "Party guests presented an oversized cake to the hockey star and sang happy birthday before wrapping up the event," per our tipster.

OUT AND ABOUT ... SPOTTED at Cafe Milano's Domingo Room on Wednesday: Shannon Bream speaking about SCOTUS at an Institute for Education program; Jennifer Griffin, Coach Kathy Kemper, Ambassador of Oman Hunaina Al-Mughairy, Ambassador of Kosovo Vlora Citaku, Joanne Ke Edelman, Abderrahim Foukara, Jeanine Hayden, Kristen Honey, Ambassador of Finland Kirsti Kauppi, Ambassador of Jordan Dina Kawar, Ambassador of Belgium Dirk Wouters, Ambassador of Estonia Jonatan Vseviov and Ambassador of Ireland Dan Mulhall.

-- SPOTTED at a book party on Monday night for "The Last Palace: Europe's Turbulent Century in Five Lives and One Legendary House" by former U.S. Ambassador to the Czech Republic Norm Eisen ($18.30 on Amazon): Hynek Kmonicek, Patrick Steel, Jim Fallows, David Corn, Karen Kornbluh, David Makovsky, Tom Hamburger, Alice Crites, Mike Abramowitz, Mark Mellman, Perry Apelbaum, Rebecca Kutler, Danielle Brian, Fred Wertheimer, Noah Bookbinder, Craig Holman, Darrell West, Bill Daroff, Robbie Diamond, Tom Dine, Jeff Gedmin, Jamie Kirchick, Matt Nosanchuk, Mark Zaid and Rabbi Hyim Shafner.

BIRTHDAY OF THE DAY: NPR correspondent Neda Ulaby. How she's celebrating: "I'm lucky enough to be starting a Knight-Wallace fellowship at the University of Michigan this year, so probably grabbing drinks with a group of fantastic journalists from all over the world." Playbook Plus Q&A

BIRTHDAYS: Ainsley Earhardt, co-host of "Fox & Friends" ... Keith Mason ... Joe Mansour, partner/digital at FP1 Strategies (hat tip: Chandler Hudson Bair) ... Henry Samueli is 64 ... CSIS alum Emily Grunewald ... Peter Flaherty ... Carter Lavin is 3-0 ... CNN's Cathy Straight and Kristen Holmes ... Deborah Roberts is 58 ... Crystal Wallingford ... Alejandra Campoverdi ... Moira Bagley Smith ... The Washington Times' Rowan Scarborough ... Shaun Waterman ... Margaret Burge ... NPR's Lauren Hodges ... Bloomberg's Drew Singer ... Douglas Sellers ... Aniello Alioto ... Dan Henning, producer for Sirius XM Radio ... POLITICO's Reena Flores ... Alicia D'Angelo ... Sophie Buzzell, senior manager at
 Everfi (h/t Lily Lancaster) ... Lucy Vernasco ... Ali Bogdonoff (h/t Stephanie Benedict) ... Brent Perrin of America Rising ... 

... Francesca Craig, director of special events at the MPAA (h/ts Ben Chang and Chris Ortman) ... Governing's Graham Vyse ... CNN commentator Van Jones is 5-0 ... Marty Tolchin is 9-0 ... Melissa Jane Kronfeld ... Edelman's Tracy Sarria ... Asher Allen ... Maureen Shanahan, head of corporate communications at Coinbase ... Valerie Lapinski, managing producer for video at Vox ... Damien Scott ... Greg Nantz ... Adam Howard ... Caroline Kitchener, associate editor of The Atlantic ... Terry Gilfillan ... Max Root ... Mark Mullery ... Kenneth Maresco ... Ashley O'Connor ... Caitlin Blair ... Nancy Bocskor ... Sarah Hawkins Warren ... Riyad Hammad ... Carl Zichella ... John Judge ... Mardi
 O'Shaughnessy ... Vanessa Kirsch ... Nancy Godfrey ... Angie Schiavoni ... Sara O'Keefe ... Clay McClure (h/ts Teresa Vilmain)
       
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