Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score, presented by AARP: Flood of new campaign ads — Bredesen breaks with Schumer — Mixed news in wave of Florida polls
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
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Date: Wed, 26 Sep 2018 08:06:49 -0600
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By James Arkin | 09/26/2018 10:06 AM EDT

The following newsletter is an abridged version of Campaign Pro's Morning Score. For an earlier morning read on exponentially more races - and for a more comprehensive aggregation of the day's most important campaign news - sign up for Campaign Pro today. 
 
AD NAUSEAM - For the next six weeks TVs will be increasingly swamped with political ads (not that they weren't already). Just today, we saw more than a dozen new Senate ads, seven new gubernatorial ads and more than five dozen new House ads across the map. (If you want to watch them all, check out the Campaign Pro roundup here.) 
 
If you can't watch them all, here are some major themes: In the Senate, attack ads are beginning to take over. Majority Forward, a nonprofit aligned with Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer, released ads attacking Florida Gov. Rick Scott as a "shady millionaire" and going after Montana Republican Matt Rosendale as "all hat, no cattle." Not to be outdone, the GOP-aligned Senate Leadership Fund released ads attacking Democrats in Indiana, Nevada, Missouri, Tennessee and West Virginia. The top issues? Guns, health care and accusing Democrats of having gone Washington.
 
On the House side, the sheer number of ads shows just how large the playing field could be this fall. For Democrats, ads run the gamut: several attack Republicans for voting for the GOP's Obamacare repeal effort last year; several criticize Republican opponents for taking special interest money; a few ads tie Republican candidates to President Donald Trump. On the GOP side, there were several common themes: criticizing Democrats for backing the Iran nuclear deal and as supporting a government takeover of health care. Peppered in the mix were ads on local issues, and candidates defending themselves against attacks. 
 
There's been some House/Senate crossover: Three of the five Senate Leadership Fund attack ads tied Democratic senators to Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi. And a DCCC attack ad against New Jersey Republican Rep. Leonard Lance featured clips of Brett Kavanaugh, Trump's embattled Supreme Court nominee. 
 
Good Wednesday morning. Your usual host Zach Montellaro remains blissfully on vacation, so I'm still here filling in. Shoot me tips, notes, jokes or just say hello: [email-masked] /@JamesArkin. 
 
Email the great Campaign Pro team at [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked] and [email-masked]. Follow them on Twitter: @PoliticoScott, @ZachMontellaro, @ec_schneider, and @DanielStrauss4.
 
Days until the 2018 election: 41.
 
PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP SAYS A RED WAVE IS COMING ON ELECTION DAY. Is he right or will the tide turn blue? Compete against the nation's top political minds in the POLITICO Playbook Election Challenge, by correctly picking the winning candidates in some of the most competitive House, Senate and gubernatorial races in the country! Win awesome prizes and eternal bragging rights. Sign up today! Visit politico.com/playbookelectionchallenge to play. 
 
CRAMER ON KAVANAUGH, Pt. II - Republican Rep. Kevin Cramer questioned whether the allegation of sexual assault against Judge Brett Kavanaugh would be disqualifying for the Supreme Court, even if it were true. More from your Score author: "In an interview with a local TV station, Cramer said if Christine Blasey Ford's allegation that Kavanaugh sexually assaulted her three decades ago were true, it would be 'unfortunate' and 'terrible,' but should be weighed against his life and judicial record since that time. 'Even if it's all true, does it disqualify him? It certainly means that he did something really bad 36 years ago, but does it disqualify him from the Supreme Court?' Cramer asked."
 
SORRY, CHUCK - Tennessee Democrat Phil Bredesen said during a debate Tuesday that he wouldn't back Sen. Chuck Schumer as Democratic leader if elected to the Senate. Read more from me: "'We need to get new leadership. I can tell you right now that if I'm elected, and when I'm elected and go to Washington, I am not going to be voting for Chuck Schumer,' Bredesen said. It's the latest effort Bredesen has made to show independence from national Democrats while running in solid-red Tennessee, which President Donald Trump carried by 26 percentage points in 2016. Bredesen has also played down his party's chances of winning the Senate majority in the fall, to try to keep crossover voters in his
 camp."
 
** Presented by AARP: There's only one true deciding factor in this year's elections: 50-plus voters. They won't be ignored and their votes are up for grabs. Medicare, Social Security, support for family caregivers, and prescription drug costs are all on the line-so you can be sure they'll be voting in record numbers. 
aarp.org/vote **
 
POLLS, POLLS AND MORE POLLS - A new poll from Quinnipiac University showed Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson with a 7-point edge over Republican Gov. Rick Scott. An NBC News poll showed Nelson leading Scott by 3 points, and showed Democrat Andrew Gillum up over Republican Ron DeSantis in the governor's race by 5 points. But it's not all good news for Dems: Our POLITICO Florida colleague Marc Caputo reports that Scott has a double-digit lead over Nelson among Hispanic voters 50 and older, a critical constituency. 
 
- The American Nurses Association PAC endorsed 10 new House candidates: Democrats Madeleine Dean (PA-04); Josh Harder (CA-10); Democrat Steven Horsford (NV-04); Susie Lee (NV-03); Mike Levin (CA-49); Joe Morelle (NY-25); Joe Neguse (CO-2); Mikie Sherrill (NJ-11); Haley Stevens (MI-11); and Xochitl Torres Small (NM-2). 
 
FIRST IN SCORE - GOP super PAC Congressional Leadership Fund is going up with a new ad in Kansas' 2nd district accusing Democrat Paul Davis of being a "shady" lawyer who represented "sleazy clients." A narrator says Davis represented "a man accused of physically mistreating a mentally disabled patient" and a client who "was accused of battery against a uniformed police officer." The narrator also says Davis "was caught with a stripper during a drug bust at his client's strip club." The ad is running in the Topeka and Kansas City markets and on digital platforms. 
 
DEMS FOR KAVANAUGH? - Six Democratic senators are publicly undecided on Kavanaugh's Supreme Court nomination amid the sexual assault allegations against him, POLITICO's Burgess Everett and Elana Schor report: "Democratic insiders are feeling more bullish than ever that the party's 49 caucus members ultimately will oppose Kavanaugh. Yet the undeclared bloc of Democratic senators could be a problem for Democratic leaders, who want to put the weight of the nomination entirely on a handful of holdout Republicans."
 
ARIZONA HEATING UP - Democratic Rep. Kyrsten Sinema has a 3-point lead over Republican Rep. Martha McSally among likely voters in Arizona's Senate race, according to a new NBC News/Marist poll released Tuesday. More details from your Score author here. 
 
GIANT SLAYER? - Democrat Abigail Spanberger is tied with Republican Rep. Dave Brat in one turnout model and leading slightly in two turnout models, according to a new Monmouth University poll. More from Elena: "Spanberger takes 47 percent to Brat's 42 percent among 'all potential voters,' ... according to the polling memo. A historical midterm model shows Spanberger and Brat tied at 47 percent. Under a 'Democratic surge' model, a small Spanberger advantage returns, as she takes 48 percent to Brat's 45 percent."
 
SURVIVAL IN THE ROCKIES - Rep. Mike Coffman is a known survivor of tough elections, but he's facing the fight of his life, BuzzFeed's Alexis Levinson reports. "The Colorado Republican has been a top Democratic target - arguably the top Democratic target - for the past three election cycles, ever since redistricting put him into a congressional district that, by the numbers, ought to be in Democratic hands. And for the past three election cycles, Coffman has defied political gravity, in part on the strength of his relationships with his district's growing immigrant communities that might otherwise vote Democrat."
 
GOP ELECTION GIFTS - Some vulnerable Republicans are getting some last-minute legislative gifts before the chamber takes off for recess, per Roll Call's Lindsey McPherson. "Those gifts come in the form of floor votes on bills they have authored. By the end of the week, 28 of the 57 House Republicans whose seats are considered in play this cycle, according to Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales, are set to go home with the chamber having voted this month on at least one of their bills." 
 
CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "Didn't expect that reaction, but that's okay." - President Donald Trump during his U.N. speech, responding to laughter following his boast about his administration's accomplishments. 
 
** Presented by AARP: Americans 50 and over are the nation's most powerful voting bloc. In fact, more than 60 million of them voted in 2016-and this year, they're more motivated than ever to making sure that their voices are heard in Washington. 
They're frustrated with broken government. And they're fed up with politicians who'd rather get into fights than get results. The issues they care about most including Medicare, Social Security, support for family caregivers and prescription drug costs, are all on the line. America's 50-plus voters have put the candidates on notice. Anyone who ignores them will feel it on Election Day. aarp.org/vote **
 
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