Subject: POLITICO Playbook: Where things stand on Kavanaugh
From: "Anna Palmer Jake Sherman Daniel Lippman" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 27 Sep 2018 04:21:20 -0600
List-Id: <1376319.xt.local>

Presented by Google: Playbook is POLITICO's must-read briefing on what's driving the day in Washington                Sep 27, 2018 View in browser                   
 By Jake Sherman, Anna Palmer and Daniel Lippman 
             
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              DRIVING THE DAY      
WE NEED TO SAY THIS FIRST. Based on our reporting, it seems slightly more likely than not that BRETT KAVANAUGH will be a Supreme Court justice. Not by that much, but by a smidge. 

SENIOR REPUBLICANS told us that a lot of attention is being paid to SENS. SUSAN COLLINS of Maine and LISA MURKOWSKI of Alaska, but there are other serious wild cards -- like JEFF FLAKE of Arizona -- and others, depending on how today's hearing goes. GOP leadership has good situational awareness on Collins and Murkowski -- less so on Flake and no ability to predict how this hearing will go, and how viscerally people will react. 

BUT TODAY, we find ourselves at a moment where culture is a much more powerful force than conventional politics. The vote counting and partisan messaging that is the normal stuff of Capitol Hill and Washington is almost irrelevant compared to the way this episode is exposing sharp differences among Americans, based on their own life experiences, the prevalence of sexual assault and the notions of fairness in society. 

OF COURSE, it's important that we know what happened with Kavanaugh and CHRISTINE BLASEY FORD in Bethesda, and allegedly with others in New Haven and D.C. -- but we have to be cognizant that we might never know with 100 percent certainty. And that Senate Republicans -- propelled by inertia, driven to win and very much in doubt of the allegations -- could confirm Kavanaugh to a lifetime seat on the Supreme Court. If Democrats win back power, they can try to impeach him. 

BUT WHAT MAKES THIS MOMENT even more poignant is that so many women identify with these allegations -- either specifically, or in broad brush.

WHAT CAN KAVANAUGH DO to change the political dynamic at this point? Probably nothing. Republicans in the House and Senate are scared out of their minds -- and if they tell you they're not, they're not being truthful, or they're politically tone-deaf. The visual -- a woman accusing a man of sexual misconduct, and the man denying it -- is exceedingly powerful. 

HERE'S WHERE WE DISAGREE (this disagreement came up in a late-afternoon phone call with John F. Harris, our boss). 

-- JAKE: Republicans have political objectives that are at odds. As much as they might like Kavanaugh on the court, their near-term political interest would probably be better served if he withdraws, and a seat on the court is again at issue in the midterm elections. 

-- ANNA: Republicans have already lost the women they are going to lose for backing Kavanaugh, and nothing can be done in the near term to change that. Even a narrow Kavanaugh victory puts a movement conservative on the bench in his early 50s, in position to shape the American life for the next two to three decades. The political system will move on from this scandal to the next scandal du jour in days.

WHAT WE LEARNED IN THE CAPITOL ...

-- MOST SENIOR REPUBLICANS think there is no win in this testimony for them. Period. They're going to cringe while they watch it, and can't wait until it's over.

-- NO MATTER WHAT HAPPENS, DEMS GOT WHAT THEY NEED. In the first two years of the Trump administration, we've seen the president stick by a Senate candidate accused of relationships with underage women and a Supreme Court nominee accused of multiple episodes of sexual misconduct. Politically, Democrats believe that's poignant. Some Democrats have been concerned about the party's scattershot approach to Kavanaugh -- injunctions, questioning his ties to PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP'S law firm -- but politically, this is a gift. And they've already begun to use it in Republican attack ads.

-- HOW KAVANAUGH WILL RESPOND: We saw a preview of this on Fox News the other night -- Kavanaugh will say that he does not doubt that Ford was sexually assaulted in her life, but it was not him. 

HOW TODAY WILL GO DOWN ... EACH SENATOR will have one five-minute round of questioning for each witness. Senators can opt to have counsel or another senator ask questions on their behalf. 

THE OPENING STATEMENTS ... Brett Kavanaugh ... Christine Blasey Ford

-- THE HEARING will be in Dirksen 226 at 10 a.m.

Good Thursday morning. SPOTTED: Robert Mueller Wednesday afternoon at the Apple Store in Georgetown. "He was in the back of the store and almost no one picked up that he was in there," according to our tipster. Pic

TRUMP will headline an NRCC dinner tonight, which will raise more than $15 million for Protect the House and the NRCC. The event was planned by House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) and has the backing of more than 115 of his GOP colleagues.
       
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MORE ON KAVANAUGH ... 

-- ELANA SCHOR and BURGESS EVERETT: "Senate asks Kavanaugh about fourth misconduct accusation"

-- BURGESS EVERETT and JOHN BRESNAHAN: "Kavanaugh's GOP defenders on the hot seat at hearing": "Lindsey Graham complained that Brett Kavanaugh's accusers are making him out to be 'Bill Cosby.' Orrin Hatch blasted 'phony' accusations in The New Yorker. And John Cornyn urged the Senate to get on with a confirmation vote before more 'reckless' allegations are lodged against the Supreme Court nominee. 

"All three Republicans will be on the dais Thursday when Ford appears before the Senate Judiciary Committee for a hearing that will determine whether Kavanaugh lands on the high court. They've been Kavanaugh's most aggressive defenders - and appear most at risk of appearing dismissive of Kavanaugh's initial accuser, Christine Blasey Ford. 

"The GOP has hired Rachel Mitchell, an experienced Arizona prosecutor, to head off ugly confrontations with Ford. But Graham, Hatch and Cornyn aren't ruling out asking their own questions on Thursday. 'The people who are criticizing us are hypocrites. We're not going to let a thousand accusations' stop him, said Graham, perhaps the most aggressive Kavanaugh defender. 'When a woman says something, she needs to be heard. But when you accuse someone of a crime, the accuser needs to be tested.'" POLITICO

-- WAPO'S ROS HELDERMAN, SEUNG MIN KIM, JOSH DAWSEY and NOORI FARZAN: "Career prosecutor brings wild-card element to Kavanaugh hearing": "One aspect of her background that could be key: Mitchell, who runs the special victims division of the Maricopa County Attorney's Office, championed a manual for local prosecutors that recommends questioning victims of sexual assault with a 'neutral, fact finding attitude,' placing the 'best interest of the victim' first. Republicans hope her presence will help bring credibility to the hearing. Judiciary Committee Chairman Charles E. Grassley (R-Iowa) said she will help 'depoliticize' the process. 

"But by choosing an unknown for the task, Republicans have taken a risk - gambling that Mitchell finds a way, in her first turn on the national stage, to successfully deliver tough but empathetic questions. If Mitchell turns out to be the fair and evenhanded questioner that Republicans said they want, there could be dangers for the embattled nominee: What if Ford appears credible in the face of such questioning? What if Kavanaugh struggles?" WaPo

-- CNN'S PHIL MATTINGLY and MANU RAJU: "Collins privately raises concerns about new allegations, lack of subpoena for Kavanaugh friend": "Sen. Susan Collins, who could determine whether Brett Kavanaugh gets a lifetime seat on the Supreme Court, raised serious concerns at a private meeting about the newest allegations of inappropriate behavior against the nominee -- and questioned why the Senate Judiciary Committee had not subpoenaed a close friend of the federal judge.

"Multiple sources familiar with the private Wednesday meeting told CNN that Collins appeared unnerved by the latest allegation, citing in particular that it was a sworn statement sent to the panel, which carries with it the possibility of perjury for lying to Congress.... 

"[I]t was made clear to senators inside the meeting that the most recent allegation had resonated with the Maine moderate in a way that others up to that point had not. ... Multiple senators in the room attempted to reassure Collins that the process in place -- with the Judiciary Committee investigators and staff looking into the multiple allegations, gathering evidence and attempting to interview all involved -- was the most efficient way to handle what had been brought to the forefront." CNN

PIC DU JOUR -- CBS' BO ERICKSON (@BoKnowsNews): "MURKOWSKI and FEINSTEIN huddling in Capitol basement. What are they talking about?" Pic

ONCE YOU LOSE NEW HAVEN ... "Yale turns on Kavanaugh: A school long known as a breeding ground for activists has emerged as the epicenter of the Kavanaugh resistance," by Eliana Johnson: "Allegations that another Yale Law School professor and Kavanaugh friend, Amy Chua, who ran Yale Law School's clerkship program for several years and recommended several clerks to Kavanaugh from that post, told students the judge preferred attractive clerks and advised women to dress in an 'outgoing' manner for their interviews with him ... 

"Chua, best known for her 2011 book 'Battle Hymn of the Tiger Mother,' has categorically denied the allegations against her. Law School Dean Heather Gerken in a memo told faculty members and students that the school is investigating 'allegations of faculty misconduct' raised by recent news reports." POLITICO

HMM -- "Two Men Told Senate Staffers They Had 'The Encounter' With Christine Blasey Ford, Not Brett Kavanaugh,"by BuzzFeed's Zoe Tillman: "Senate Judiciary Committee staff interviewed two men who said they believed that they, and not U.S. Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh, had 'the encounter' with the woman who accused Kavanaugh of sexually assaulting her when they were teenagers, according to new information released Wednesday night by the committee. 

"The revelation - which came on the eve of much-anticipated public testimony from Kavanaugh and the woman who has accused him of assault, Christine Blasey Ford - included few details. The committee didn't identify the men, offer details about what they said, state whether committee staff found their accounts credible, or indicate whether there would be any further follow-up." BuzzFeed

-- "Ex-boyfriend filed restraining order against third Kavanaugh accuser," by Marc Caputo and Natasha Korecki: "Julie Swetnick, the woman who accused Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh and a friend of attending house parties where women - including herself - were sexually assaulted, had a restraining order filed against her years later in Miami by her former boyfriend. 

"A Miami-Dade County court docket shows a petition for injunction against Swetnick was filed March 1, 2001, by her former boyfriend, Richard Vinneccy, who told POLITICO Wednesday the two had dated for four years before they broke up. 

"Thirteen days later, the case was dismissed, not long after an affidavit of non-ability to advance fees was filed. According to Vinneccy, Swetnick threatened him after they broke up and even after he got married to his current wife and had a child. 'Right after I broke up with her, she was threatening my family, threatening my wife and threatening to do harm to my baby at that time,' Vinneccy said in a telephone interview with POLITICO. 'I know a lot about her.' 'She's not credible at all,' he said. 'Not at all.'" POLITICO

THE STEP BACK ... ANDREW RESTUCCIA, "How the Kavanaugh fiasco may change vetting forever: Potential nominees - especially older men - are likely to face scrutiny that goes even deeper and earlier into their lives, hunting for #MeToo problems that might previously have gone unnoticed": "The sexual misconduct allegations against Brett Kavanaugh may redefine high-level political background vetting for the #MeToo era, applying intense new scrutiny to even the teenage years of future Supreme Court picks and other top federal nominees. 

"High school keg parties, teenage love interests and college fraternities are all likely to be put under the microscope by government officials as a president weighs the next Supreme Court pick - especially when it comes to the dozens of well-credentialed middle-aged white males often touted as future justices who came of age before the #MeToo movement. 

"The same likely applies to would-be Cabinet officials and potential presidential running mates. The allegations against Kavanaugh could also force presidents to shy away from men with a history of heavy drinking or frat-house style antics, even if vetting teams don't find evidence of troubling inappropriate behavior, according to a half-dozen veterans of past Supreme Court battles. The charges against Kavanaugh, who had a sparkling image within Washington's conservative legal circles, surprised the White House and many of the judge's close friends." POLITICO

WAPO -- "'I remember thinking, ugh, this is bad': Scenes from teenage party life in the '80s"

AS IF WE NEEDED MORE NEWS ... THE HOUSE INTELLIGENCE COMMITTEE will vote to release 53 interview transcripts on Friday. Transcripts include two Steve Bannon interviews, James Clapper, Michael Cohen, Boris Epshteyn, two Corey Lewandowski sessions, Brad Parscale, Jared Kushner and Jeff Sessions. The full list

ABOUT THAT PRESS CONFERENCE ... 

-- NYT'S MIKE GRYNBAUM: "'I Could Be Doing This All Day.' Trump Delights in Sparring With the Press": "Sometime after he doubted the character of George Washington ('Didn't he have a couple things in his past?'), urged a wire-service reporter to ask a tough question ('Give it to me, Reuters!') and referred to a Kurdish correspondent as 'Mr. Kurd,' President Trump paused to directly address the dozens of journalists who had gathered for a rare solo news conference. 'Can you imagine,' he said, 'if you didn't have me?' Mr. Trump denounces news organizations as 'the enemy of the people.'" 

"His supporters turned 'fake news' into a political rallying cry. And the daily White House press briefing is all but a thing of the past. But in 80 minutes on Wednesday, Mr. Trump made clear that he is never more comfortable, never more engaged, than when he is sparring with the news media that he loves to say he hates. Back on his native turf - a hotel ballroom in Midtown Manhattan, five blocks from Trump Tower - the president strolled onto the stage like a prizefighter eager for the opening bell. An hour later, his enjoyment of the occasion had only increased." NYT

ROSENSTEIN WATCH -- DARREN SAMUELSOHN and JOSH GERSTEIN: "'Can you do this?': Russia probe conflicts rampant among Rosenstein replacements": "President Donald Trump may think he's getting rid of a problem if he pushes Rod Rosenstein out of the Justice Department. But cleaning house at DOJ will hardly end the president's headaches from special counsel Robert Mueller's investigation into Russian election meddling and whether the Trump campaign coordinated with Moscow on its efforts.

"Several Trump administration appointees in line for Rosenstein's role overseeing Mueller's probe come with their own baggage, from direct involvement in the probe to recent work at law firms with clients mired in the investigation." POLITICO

NYT'S KATIE BENNER and MAGGIE HABERMAN, "Sessions Aide, a Trump Loyalist, Is Seen as Ascendant Amid Rosenstein Chaos": "Convinced that the deputy attorney general, Rod J. Rosenstein, was ready to resign after the revelation that he suggested President Trump was unfit for the job, senior White House aides got to work last weekend installing a replacement. Matthew G. Whitaker, the chief of staff to Attorney General Jeff Sessions, would become the acting No. 2 official at the Justice Department, his White House counterpart, John F. Kelly, told him over the phone on Saturday morning, according to two people briefed on the call. 

"To the White House, he was an obvious choice: a confident former college football player and United States attorney whom Mr. Kelly has privately described as the West Wing's 'eyes and ears' in a department the president has long considered at war with him.

"By late Monday morning, the plan was moot. Mr. Rosenstein was no longer committed to resigning, at least without assurances he was doing so on amicable terms with the president. Mr. Trump told reporters on Wednesday that he was open to keeping Mr. Rosenstein in place, and two White House officials said they believed he was likely to remain in his job at least through the midterm elections." NYT

         
THE JUICE ...

-- ABC'S ROBIN ROBERTS will have the first interview with MICHELLE OBAMA before the release of her book. The interview will air Nov. 13 in a primetime special.

TRUMP'S WEDNESDAY -- The president will meet with the United States Mission to the United Nations at 9:25 this morning. He will then return to Washington -- his arrival at the White House is around noon. In the evening, he will headline the NRCC dinner.
                 PLAYBOOK READS         

PHOTO DU JOUR: Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) addresses a rally hosted by FreedomWorks on Wednesday to bolster his run for House speaker. | Alex Wong/Getty Images
   
SCOOP -- "Trump anti-discrimination official once called most hate crimes hoaxes," by WaPo's Robert O'Harrow Jr., Shawn Boburg and Renae Merle: "A senior Trump appointee responsible for enforcing laws against financial discrimination once questioned in blog posts written under a pen name if using the n-word was inherently racist and claimed that the great majority of hate crimes were hoaxes. Eric Blankenstein, a policy director at the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, expressed those and other controversial views more than a decade ago on a political blog he co-authored with two other anonymous contributors.

"In a 2004 post, Blankenstein wrote that a proposal at the University of Virginia to impose harsher academic penalties for acts of intolerance was 'racial idiocy.' He questioned how authorities could know the motivation of someone using a racial slur. 'Fine . . . let's say they called him n----- ,' he wrote, spelling out the slur. '. . . would that make them racists, or just a-------?' Blankenstein also wrote that 'hate-crime hoaxes are about three times as prevalent as actual hate crimes.'" WaPo

         
WHITE HOUSE DEPARTURE LOUNGE - "Top White House policy aide Bremberg to leave," by Adam Cancryn, Sarah Karlin-Smith and Eliana Johnson: "Domestic Policy Council Director Andrew Bremberg is leaving the White House at the end of the year, three sources familiar with his plans told POLITICO. Bremberg, who has been with the administration since President Donald Trump's election, will be nominated as the next ambassador to the United Nations Mission in Geneva, the White House confirmed in a notice published [Wednesday] afternoon. The organization represents the U.S. on a range of international issues including public health, trade and economic development. It does not currently have a permanent
 ambassador." POLITICO

DEM LEADERSHIP WATCH -- Rep. Matt Cartwright (D-Pa.) is running for co-chair of the Democratic Policy and Communications Committee. His take in a "Dear Colleague" letter: There should be someone on DPCC leadership who represents "working-class families with rust belt economic challenges whose faith we must regain." The letter 

TRADE WARS -- "Farmers Say Aid Won't Cover Tariff Damage," by WSJ's Jesse Newman: "U.S. farm income is expected to drop 13% this year to $66 billion, according to the Department of Agriculture, extending a yearslong slump in the agricultural economy. The USDA in August said it would pay farmers nearly $5 billion to offset losses from global trade disputes. 

"Major U.S. trade partners including China, Canada and Mexico have applied tariffs to billions of dollars' worth of U.S. agricultural exports in retaliation for tariffs imposed by Washington. The U.S. and China vowed last week to put more tariffs on each other's goods. The USDA said it has paid $35 million to farmers so far, especially in Iowa, Kansas, Illinois, Indiana and Wisconsin. Nearly 49,000 farmers have applied for the aid." WSJ

WHAT KEVIN MCCARTHY IS SMILING ABOUT ... "Four Democratic candidates are turning against their own party over California's gas tax," by L.A. Times' Pat McGreevy: "Democratic leaders are facing a mutiny by four of the party's congressional candidates who are opposing a recent increase in the California gas tax that has proved unpopular with many voters.

"The defections could bolster Proposition 6, a Republican-led initiative on the November ballot that would repeal a 2017 law that increased the state's gas tax and vehicle fees to fix roads and improve mass transit. Six Republican congressional candidates helped fund the ballot measure in hopes of boosting conservative voter turnout and changing the outcome in some close races." LAT
                 PLAYBOOKERS      
SPOTTED -- Bryce Harper and his wife last night at the Trump Hotel ... Jeb Bush yesterday at LaGuardia ... Venus Williams and her older sister Isha Price having lunch in the main dining room at downtown restaurant Pennsylvania 6 -- they ordered scallop crudo, and a gluten free chicken sandwich ... Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) eating with Byron York at Capital Grille ... Chuck Todd at DCA waiting out weather delays. Pic

OUT AND ABOUT -- House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) was the featured speaker at the DCCC's LGBT Equality Council fundraiser held annually at the Capitol Hill home of her deputy chief of staff and longtime spokesman Drew Hammill, and his husband, Jason Mida. Rainbow cookies were served at the event, which raised $175,000 for the DCCC. 

SPOTTED: Rep. Joe Kennedy (D-Mass.), Rep. Mark Takano (D-Calif.), Rep. Katherine Clark (D-Mass.), Helena Berger, Nadeam Elshami, Jorge Aguilar, Steve Elmendorf, Emily Berret, Ben Needham and Winnie Stachelberg.

BIRTHDAY OF THE DAY: Anne-Marie Slaughter, CEO of New America Foundation. How she's celebrating: "I'm having a few dinners with family members and my husband is planning a surprise trip for me in October (to celebrate my 60th birthday and our 25th anniversary). I have no idea where we are going; he keeps dropping hints about Antarctica...." Playbook Plus Q&A

BIRTHDAYS: Jeff Birnbaum, president of BGR Public Relations, is 62 ... Jenny Burke of FEMA (hat tip: Lauren Claffey) ... Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-Fla.) is 52 ... Rep. Adriano Espaillat (D-N.Y.) is 64 ... WaPo's Tony Romm ... Megan Grant, VP for strategic comms at Glover Park Group ... Brian Killheffer is 37 ... Christina DiPasquale ... LaVerne Alexander ... David Ratcliff ... Kristin Sosanie ... Brendan Dunn (h/t Erica Suares and the McTeam) ... Meridith McGraw of ABC News (h/ts Arlette Saenz and Natalie Boyse) ... Will Bredderman ... Brendan Dunn, partner at Akin Gump ... AP's Pablo Gorondi ... LCV's Sara Chieffo ... Concetta Cantelmo ... Juleanna Glover (h/t sister Becca) ...
 Martin D. Franks ... Laura Whitefield (h/t sister Trice Jacobson) ... Lucy McCalmont ... Carl Woog, lead for policy communications at WhatsApp (h/t Ben Chang, filing from Princeton) ... Marty Franks (h/t Dan Harrison) ... Alison Weiss, VP of government relations at MassMutual ... Francisco Urena (h/ts Ed Cash) ... 

... Christian Hertenstein, VP at Definers Public Affairs, is 33 (h/t Colin Reed) ... Marcus Sebastian Mason, senior partner at the Madison Group (h/t Robb Watters) ... Caitlyn Schneeweiss ... Ed Niles ... Deloitte's Alexa Wertman Brown is 28 ... Bryce Hallowell ... POLITICO Europe's Nick Vinocur ... Saraid Donnelly ... Sam Raskin ... Tim Traylor ... POLITICO's Steven Overly and Jonathan McClure ... Charles Percy ... Meg (Jones) Margiotta ... Rene Carbone Bardorf ... Earl Plante is 46 ... NBC News' Matthew Vann ... PwC's Scott Moshier is 33 ... former Rep. Ed Case (D-Hawaii) is 66 ... Geoff Burgan, comms director for Andrew Gillum's Florida gubernatorial campaign ... Kathy Heinan ... Shaun
 Cassidy is 6-0 ... Michelle Carrier ... Lee Wasserman ... John Loredo ... Abby Curran (h/ts Teresa Vilmain)
       
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