Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score: Brace for some monster third-quarter FEC reports — House GOP pulls back ad money from three districts — Recapping Trumps' W.Va. rally
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
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Date: Mon, 01 Oct 2018 08:02:53 -0600
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By Scott Bland | 10/01/2018 10:00 AM EDT

The following newsletter is an abridged version of Campaign Pro's Morning Score. For an earlier morning read on exponentially more races - and for a more comprehensive aggregation of the day's most important campaign news - sign up for Campaign Pro today. (http://www.politicopro.com/proinfo)
 
BIG QUARTERS COMING - In case you missed the hundreds of fundraising emails alerting you yesterday, the third quarter wrapped up Sunday night, and House and Senate FEC reports are due by Oct. 15. And we're going to see some enormous totals across the House landscape in the next two weeks, fueled by explosive online fundraising on the Democratic side and furious efforts to preserve the House majority on the GOP side.
 
We've been tracking House Democrats' online fundraising via ActBlue for months now, and it was higher than ever in August, giving many campaigns fuel to hit the airwaves before Republican outside group attacks started flying. Six Democratic challengers had raised over $1 million online in July and August alone: Danny O'Connor, who was in last month's Ohio special election, plus Andrew Janz (CA-22), Abigail Spanberger (VA-07), Harley Rouda (CA-48), Jared Golden (ME-02) and Josh Harder (CA-10). Many more were set to clear seven figures by the end of September, including another eight who raised at least $750,000 online in July and August and another seven who were over $600,000 online after
 two months.
 
Online fundraising typically accelerates as you get closer to Election Day. (Friday and Sunday were ActBlue's two biggest days ever, with over $15 million flowing through the Democratic donor platform on Sunday alone.) Plus, Democrats have been raising money offline, too - in just one big example, the House Victory Project was set to make contributions around a quarter-million dollars or more to 21 Democratic House candidates last quarter.
 
For context: In 2016, nine non-incumbent Democratic House candidates raised over $1 million in the third quarter, heading into the general election. (Two of them were self-funders.) Two self-funding Republican challengers also cleared seven figures, as did seven GOP incumbents. The 2018 field looks set to plow through those numbers.
 
Republicans know that Democrats have been piling up money, and battle-ready GOP incumbents spent the summer stockpiling cash, too. (Rep. Pete Sessions, the former NRCC chairman now in a tough race to keep TX-32, raised $217,000 in PAC money in July and August alone, for example, according to FEC data.) It's going to add up to a lot of record-breaking campaign finance reports around the map - and in some districts, a big imbalance in campaign resources could end up pushing a handful of races in one direction or the other in November.
 
As the immortal Ray Arnold said: "Hold onto your butts."
 
Good Monday morning. We hope you have enjoyed the last week out from under Zach Montellaro's thumb, Score readers. His reign of terror re-commences with the next edition. In the meantime, you can find me here: [email-masked]/@PoliticoScott.
 
Email the great Campaign Pro team at [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked] and [email-masked]. Follow them on Twitter:@ZachMontellaro, @ec_schneider, @JamesArkin and @DanielStrauss4.
 
Days until the 2018 election: 36.
 
MONEY MOVING - The NRCC cut its TV buy in GOP Rep. Kevin Yoder's KS-03, via my colleague Elena Schneider, pulling $1.2 million out of the district in a worrying sign for the Republican incumbent. Meanwhile, Congressional Leadership Fund cut off GOP Reps. Mike Coffman (CO-06) and Mike Bishop (MI-08) amid concerns that both districts have slipped beyond Republicans' grasp.
 
- BUT... there is disagreement about both of those moves: Bishop's campaign released an internal poll in response to CLF's move, showing him with a narrow edge in a 2-point race against Democrat Elissa Slotkin. The NRCC responded to CLF's cut in Colorado by upping its ad buy in Coffman's district.
 
FIRST IN SCORE - Majority Forward, the nonprofit organization aligned with Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, is running a new ad attacking Republican Mike Braun in Indiana. The ad criticizes Braun over the health care plan he offered employees at his business, and criticizes him on coverage for pre-existing conditions and charging higher health care rates for the elderly. Watch the ad here. 
 
TRUMP ON THE TRAIL - The president rallied supporters in Wheeling, W.Va. on Saturday, turning "embattled Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh into a rallying cry for Republicans to vote in November," the Associated Press reported. Trump also lit into Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) and other state Democrats and urged support for Attorney General Patrick Morrisey's campaign against Manchin. The Herald-Star has more of Trump's comments on the race: "A vote for Morrisey is a vote for me, and for our agenda to make America Great Again, and to keep America great again. This is a very important election that decides which party controls the U.S. Senate."
 
DONNELLY TO VOTE NO - Sen. Joe Donnelly (D-Ind.) said Friday that he will oppose Brett Kavanaugh's Supreme Court nomination, though later in the day he left open the possibility that the pending FBI investigation into sexual assault allegations against Kavanaugh could give him information to change his mind (via the Chicago Tribune). From Donnelly's statement early Friday: "While I would gladly welcome the opportunity to work with President Trump on a new nominee for this critically important position, if Judge Kavanaugh's nomination comes before the full Senate for a vote under these circumstances, I will oppose it." Donnelly's Republican challenger Mike Braun called the decision a "grave
 mistake."
 
- Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.) also said Friday he'd vote no, though he was never viewed as likely to support Kavanaugh. The judge became a major contrast point in Saturday's Montana Senate debate between Tester and Republican Matt Rosendale, the Associated Press reported: "In taking the offensive on an issue that's sharply divided the nation, Rosendale was mirroring President Donald Trump, who urged Republicans at a rally in West Virginia Saturday to stand up against the 'ruthless and outrageous tactics' of Democrats in the confirmation fight. ... Tester said he was concerned about Kavanaugh's support of government surveillance, dark money in politics and government involvement in health
 care."
 
CROSS-PARTY - BuzzFeed News examined Rep. Mia Love's (R-Utah) close relationships with Democrats in the Congressional Black Caucus as she fights for reelection in one of the battleground districts that could help put Democrats in the House majority. "[Democrat Ben] McAdams has tried to characterize Love as a do-nothing member of Congress, especially on immigration. 'It's probably the wrong battle that he's picked with me, because I didn't need Ben to show up in a race to remind me that I am a daughter of immigrants,' she told the Salt Lake Tribune in July. In just that interview, Love's relationships inside the CBC paid dividends. Love suggested the reporter call [Democratic Rep. Marcia]
 Fudge to back her up in her squabble with McAdams over immigration, and the reporter obliged. Fudge told the Salt Lake Tribune in the interview that there was 'no question' Love had been a leader on immigration 'from the beginning' - especially in an effort to bring bipartisan immigration legislation to the floor. In response, McAdams' campaign manager told the paper Fudge is just another 'do-nothing' member of Congress. (Fudge and Richmond both declined to comment on that reaction.)"
 
AD WATCH - Rep. Pete Sessions' (R-Texas) first TV ad casts Democrat Colin Allred's campaign as a "revenge" mission from liberals angry that he "ran the campaign that removed Nancy Pelosi as speaker," referring to his chairmanship of the NRCC in 2010, the Dallas Morning News reported.
 
- The DCCC released its first ad against Rep. George Holding (R-N.C.) in a race that has rushed onto the radar in recent weeks. The spot hits Holding for accepting corporate PAC money after saying he wouldn't and for voting for Republican bills to repeal Obamacare. (Congressional Leadership Fund is also on the air in NC-02 with an ad calling Democrat Linda Coleman a tax-raiser.)
 
KEY VOTE - Puerto Rico Gov. Ricardo Rossell&oacute; is expected to endorse Sen. Bill Nelson (D-Fla.) and Florida Democratic gubernatorial nominee Andrew Gillum on Monday, POLITICO Florida's Marc Caputo reports. Florida Gov. Rick Scott, the GOP Senate nominee, "had hoped to score Rossell&oacute;'s endorsement. Florida's governor has flown to Puerto Rico eight times since the hurricane and stood side by side with Rossell&oacute;. Scott was also endorsed by allies of Rossell&oacute;'s."
 
AND HERE WE GO - 2020 watch: Sen. Elizabeth Warren told town hall attendees she will "take a hard look at running for president" after the 2018 election, her strongest statement to date about 2020 plans. The Boston Globe's Victoria McGrane: "Until now, Warren has responded to questions about her presidential ambitions by insisting she is focused on winning reelection to the Senate in November. On Saturday, she linked her potential interest in the nation's highest office to the damage she sees President Trump doing to the country and, more recently, to how Republicans have handled the sexual assault accusations against Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh."
 
CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "Wow. The Finance committee can do that?" - Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio), on the obscure law that would allow Democrats to obtain President Donald Trump's tax returns if they win back the House or Senate. "The nearly 100-year-old statute allows the chairmen of Congress' tax committees to look at anyone's returns," POLITICO's Brian Faler writes. Bonus fun fact: Richard Nixon's "I am not a crook" line was about the low tax rate he paid, not the Watergate scandal.
 
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