Subject: Playbook PM: Trump takes (early) victory lap on new trade deal
From: "Anna Palmer Jake Sherman Daniel Lippman" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 01 Oct 2018 11:14:57 -0600
List-Id: <1376319.xt.local>

Presented by PhRMA: Playbook is POLITICO's must-read briefing on what's driving the day in Washington                Oct 01, 2018 View in browser                   
 By Anna Palmer, Jake Sherman, Daniel Lippman, Eli Okun and Garrett Ross 
         
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NEW FROM THE ROSE GARDEN ... PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP touted the new U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement as a "landmark agreement [that] will send cash and jobs pouring into the United States." He praised his erstwhile adversaries on trade, CANADIAN PRIME MINISTER JUSTIN TRUDEAU and MEXICAN PRESIDENT ENRIQUE PENA NIETO: "They love their countries, they want to do right by their countries, and that's what they've done."

-- AGAIN: This is exceedingly unlikely to be ratified this Congress. That's what every senior Republican and Democratic aide on Capitol Hill says. It's going to require a massive whip effort, and the House is out until after the election. If Republicans lose the House, there will be an effort to jam this through in the lame-duck. That will be really tough.

-- YEP! TRUMP on Congress: "Anything you submit to Congress is trouble -- no matter what." ... TRUMP on whether his deal will get through Congress: "If it's fair, it will pass. I think it will pass easily. ... If it doesn't, we have lots of other alternatives." Later: "Not at all confident."

-- TRUMP ON CHINA trade negotiations: "Frankly, it's too early to talk. ... If politically people force it too quickly, you're not going to make the right deal for our workers and for our country." He added later, "I don't blame China. I blame our [previous] leadership."

-- ON TENSIONS WITH TRUDEAU: "It's all worked out. You know when it ended? About 12 o'clock last night."

-- HE CALLED PEOPLE WORRIED about tariffs "babies."

-- TRUMP'S MIDTERM MESSAGE TO HIS BASE, ON THE GOP: "Think of it as the same thing as me."

-- TRUMP on the BRETT KAVANAUGH probe: "I want them to do a very comprehensive investigation." He indicated he supported the FBI interviewing Kavanaugh and multiple accusers.

-- TRUMP also said that he has seen a Democratic senator in a compromising situation.

-- LINE OF THE DAY: "I can honestly say I've never had a beer in my life, OK? It's one of my only good traits. ... Can you imagine if I had, what a mess I'd be? I'd be the world's worst."

Good Monday afternoon. SIREN -- NEW JERSEY GLOBE'S DAVID WILDSTEIN (@wildstein): "Menendez +2 in Stockton Poll just released, 45%-43%. Murray Sabrin at 3%." The poll

WHAT'S ON THE PRESIDENT'S MIND -- @realDonaldTrump at 6:30 a.m.: "Late last night, our deadline, we reached a wonderful new Trade Deal with Canada, to be added into the deal already reached with Mexico. The new name will be The United States Mexico Canada Agreement, or USMCA. It is a great deal for all three countries, solves the many......" ... at 6:53 a.m.: "....deficiencies and mistakes in NAFTA, greatly opens markets to our Farmers and Manufacturers, reduces Trade Barriers to the U.S. and will bring all three Great Nations together in competition with the rest of the world. The USMCA is a historic transaction!"

... at 6:56 a.m.: "Congratulations to Mexico and Canada!"

ILLINOIS DEMOCRATIC REP. CHERI BUSTOS announced she would run for assistant Democratic leader if her party wins the majority. Her letter
       
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SCOTUS WATCH -- "Supreme Court begins new term in shadow of Kavanaugh fight," by CNN's Ariane de Vogue: Chief Justice John Roberts "will proceed gingerly, perhaps delaying some pending petitions to hear cases, examining existing cases to see if more narrow avenues of agreement are available and hoping that some cases currently in the lower courts on divisive issues continue to percolate below before reaching the high court. ... 

"Several controversial issues could make their way in some form to the justices in the coming weeks and months. Those include challenges to the Affordable Care Act, the Trump administration's decision to phase out the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program and cases concerning LGBT rights and sanctuary cities. ... Tuesday, justices will hear a case involving the death penalty that will be closely watched to see how divided the eight justices are." CNN

KNOWING JULIE SWETNICK -- "Who is Julie Swetnick, the third Kavanaugh accuser?" by WaPo's Michael E. Miller, Steve Hendrix, Jessica Contrera and Ian Shapira: "Her experience has included work for U.S. embassies, Customs and Border Protection and the Internal Revenue Service. She has held security clearances at the Departments of State, Justice, Treasury and Homeland Security, according to her r&eacute;sum&eacute;. ... As she moved among government contracting jobs, Swetnick has repeatedly encountered trouble paying her taxes. ...

"Swetnick, through her attorney Michael Avenatti, has been asking for days to talk with the FBI as well. But Avenatti, a possible 2020 presidential candidate who has battled Trump on behalf of adult film star Stormy Daniels, tweeted on Sunday that neither he nor Swetnick had heard from the bureau." WaPo 

ON THE WORLD STAGE -- "On Iran, White House Criticism Grows, but U.S. Military Posture Recedes," by WSJ's Nancy A. Youssef and Gordon Lubold: "The apparent mismatch between estimates of the Iranian threat and the military's posture in the region stems from factors that include U.S. strategic shifts and equipment limitations. The 2018 U.S. national security strategy deems big powers like China and Russia-not Iran-to be the greatest threats.

"At the same time, schedules for maintenance and upkeep have affected the availability of U.S. aircraft carriers, and the military lacks the ships and other equipment to thoroughly address every security threat." WSJ

BLOOMBERG'S GREG GIROUX (@greggiroux): "Ex-U.S. Rep. Evan Jenkins (R-WV) sworn in as a justice on the West Virginia Supreme Court of Appeals. Resigned from Congress yesterday."

WHAT ELAINE CHAO IS UP TO -- "Where is Elaine Chao? 'Private' time fills long stretches of the Transportation secretary's daily calendar, according to POLITICO's review of 14 months of records," by Tanya Snyder, Kathryn A. Wolfe and Beatrice Jin: "In total, Chao clocked more than 290 hours of appointments labeled private - the equivalent of about seven weeks' vacation - during her first 14 months in President Donald Trump's Cabinet ...

"[S]ix former DOT officials who worked closely with previous Transportation secretaries told POLITICO that the amount of private time during work hours delineated on Chao's calendar is atypical." POLITICO

2018 WATCH -- "Texas Rep. Pete Sessions, Long Dominant, Faces One of Nation's Toughest House Races," by WSJ's Dan Frosch in Dallas: "Mr. Sessions said Mr. Trump's presidency had 'driven the opposition.' But he said the [Colin] Allred campaign was betting on support from recent transplants to the Dallas area, which wouldn't pan out because voters in this booming region would continue to back his low tax, pro-business policies. ... 

"The district, which encompasses communities from moneyed Dallas enclaves to parts of Richardson, a suburb with a sizeable Asian population, is changing. Between 2007 and 2017, the number of Hispanics increased to 25.5% from 12.5%, while the Asian population jumped to 9.2% from just under 1%." WSJ

2020 WATCH -- ALEX ISENSTADT, "GOP to hold 2020 convention more than a month after Dems": "The Republican National Convention will be held Aug. 24 to 27, 2020 in Charlotte, North Carolina." POLITICO

PROPUBLICA'S JESSE EISINGER and PAUL KIEL: "After Budget Cuts, the IRS's Work Against Tax Cheats is Facing 'Collapse'": "The IRS pursues fewer cases of tax evasion than it did less than 10 years ago. Provided you're not a close associate of President Donald Trump, there may never be a better time to be a tax cheat. Last year, the IRS's criminal division brought 795 cases in which tax fraud was the primary crime, a decline of almost a quarter since 2010. ... 

"Starting in 2011, Republicans in Congress repeatedly cut the IRS's budget, forcing the agency to reduce its enforcement staff by a third. But that drop doesn't entirely explain the reduction in tax fraud cases. Over time, crimes only tangentially related to taxes, such as drug trafficking and money laundering, have come to account for most of the agency's cases. ... The result is huge losses for the government. Business owners don't pay $125 billion in taxes each year that they owe." ProPublica

NICE NEWS ... the (Jackson, Miss.) CLARION-LEDGER'S BRACEY HARRIS: "Gov. Bryant's lost wedding band found almost 30 years later": "Twenty-two years in statewide office and two grandchildren later, Gov. Phil Bryant's original wedding ring is now back in his possession thanks to a stroke of good luck.

"Bryant tweeted Friday: 'My friend Jeff Maher found my original wedding ring from 1976 in an old couch. It had been lost since 1989. Thanks, Jeff.'" Clarion-Ledger

DEEP DIVE -- RYAN LIZZA in Esquire, "Devin Nunes's Family Farm is Hiding a Politically Explosive Secret": Rep. Devin Nunes is head of the House Intelligence Committee and one of President Trump's biggest defenders. For years, he's spun himself as a straight talker whose no-BS values are rooted in his family's California dairy farm. So why did his parents and brother cover their tracks after quietly moving the farm to Iowa? Are they hiding something politically explosive? On the ground in Iowa, Esquire searched for the truth-and discovered a lot of paranoia and hypocrisy." Esquire

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK -- Weston Loyd is now a regional communications director at the White House. He most recently was communications and public affairs adviser for the Office of Science and Technology Policy.

FROM CALIFORNIA PLAYBOOK -- "ISSA'S SPLIT -- As he prepares to leave the House and take on the Trump administration trade post, Rep. Darrell Issa is filing for divorce from his wife of 38 years, Kathy. POLITICO reported earlier this year that Issa was drawn into the ugly divorce of Rep. Mike Turner (R-Ohio) after he was deposed as part of Turner's divorce proceedings. 

"Issa dismissed any suggestion that he had been romantically involved with Turner's wife ... The acrimonious Turner divorce was settled without an Issa deposition in March. Issa and his wife have one son. ... A source close to the Issa family told POLITICO Friday: 'It's sad news. Darrell and Kathy were married for many years. They are loving parents and grandparents, and they will always share a very strong bond.'"

FOR YOUR RADAR -- @MeghanMcCain: "I will be getting back on the horse ⁦@TheView⁩ Monday October 8th. Thank you all for your patience & understanding ~ 'It's not about how hard you hit. It's about how hard can you get hit and keep moving forward.'"

MEDIAWATCH -- Harrison Cramer will be a national security correspondent at National Journal. He is currently an editorial fellow. ... Jemele Hill is joining The Atlantic as a staff writer. She was previously a senior correspondent and columnist at ESPN.

TRANSITIONS -- John Sandell is now an SVP at Cornerstone Government Affairs. He previously was a tax counsel for the House Ways and Means Committee. ... Jennie Westbrook Courts is now VP of external affairs at ITI. She previously worked in strategic comms for tech clients at Precision Strategies.

WELCOME TO THE WORLD -- OBAMA ALUMNI -- Sarah Heck, head of entrepreneurship at Stripe and an Obama NSC and State alum, and Andrew Heck, VP at Morgan Stanley Investment Banking, on Thursday welcomed Phillip Reed Heck, who came in at 6 pounds, 15 ounces. Pic ... Another pic

-- Joel Graves, who manages digital communications for the Washington Roundtable and is an alum of the House GOP Conference and Team Jeb, and Caitlin Graves, marketing events manager at Insitu, welcomed Joy Elizabeth Graves. Pic ... Another pic (Photo credit: @modernfarmhousefamily)

ENGAGED -- Samantha Tartas, North America media relations lead at Boston Consulting Group and a CFR alum, got engaged to Devon Seitz, a director of data science and analytics at MDLIVE. Instapics

WEEKEND WEDDING -- Jessica Jensen, former media relations manager at Fox News who is now corporate comms lead at Honda Aircraft, married Andrew Ketner, a financial adviser at UBS. The couple met in Wrightsville Beach, N.C., during a summer break in college. Pic
           
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