Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score: The Senate map with 33 days to go — Public polls bring good news for GOP’s Senate hopes — Walker worries about the blue wave in Wisconsin
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 04 Oct 2018 08:01:13 -0600
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By Zach Montellaro | 10/04/2018 10:00 AM EDT

The following newsletter is an abridged version of Campaign Pro's Morning Score. For an earlier morning read on exponentially more races - and for a more comprehensive aggregation of the day's most important campaign news - sign up for Campaign Pro today. (http://www.politicopro.com/proinfo)
 
PROGRAMMING NOTE: Morning Score will not publish on Monday, Oct. 8. Our next newsletter will publish on Tuesday, Oct. 9. 
 
THE SENATE MAP, ONE MONTH OUT - If you can believe it, we're about a month out from Election Day. While the House increasingly looks like it will be the Democrats' to lose, the fate of the Senate is less clear. My Campaign Pro colleague James Arkin lays out the state of play: "At least six Senate races - three currently held by Democrats and three held by Republicans - are too close to call, according to a dozen senators, strategists and pollsters in both parties interviewed by POLITICO for this story. That means even a slight shift in the national political environment between now and Election Day could be the difference between a slim Democratic majority and firm Republican control. And
 another handful of races on both sides are not yet out of reach. ...
 
"Neither party is willing to concede that its most vulnerable incumbent - North Dakota Sen. Heidi Heitkamp for Democrats and Nevada Sen. Dean Heller for Republicans - is doomed, and both parties are still spending millions to keep those races in play and hope for a poll-defying victory.
 
"Republican operatives believe Judge Brett Kavanaugh's delayed Supreme Court nomination could be the thing that finally turns several key races against resilient red-state Democratic senators. ... But Democrats dispute any notion of a broader Republican boost from the Kavanaugh imbroglio, pointing out numerous polls that show majorities of independent voters and women oppose his nomination. In September, Democratic strategists were buoyed by public and private polls showing nearly all of their incumbents ahead or within striking distance, a prospect that seemed impossible at the start of this year ... . In particular, Democrats are upbeat about Florida, though they still see it as a tossup
 race."
 
HEITKAMP'S Q3 NUMBERS - Heitkamp raised $3.8 million in the previous three months, James scoops. He notes that this doubles her Q2 haul and is the "highest ever single-quarter haul for a North Dakota Senate candidate."
 
Good Thursday morning. Some good news from earlier in the week that I missed: Democrat David Trone, who is running in Maryland's 6th District, declared himself "cancer-free," via The Washington Post. As always, email me at [email-masked] or DM me at @ZachMontellaro.
 
Email the great Campaign Pro team at [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked] and [email-masked]. Follow them on Twitter: @PoliticoScott @ec_schneider, @JamesArkin and @DanielStrauss4.
 
Days until the 2018 election: 33.
 
YOUR 2018 MIDTERMS HQ: The countdown is on. Policy professionals know the 2018 midterms represent more than keeping track of winners and losers. The outcome of high-stake contests could dramatically alter the course of policymaking across the country. Go beyond election night with POLITICO Pro's 2018 Midterms HQ. Read More. 
 
PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP SAYS A RED WAVE IS COMING ON ELECTION DAY. Is he right or will the tide turn blue? Compete against the nation's top political minds in the POLITICO Playbook Election Challenge, by correctly picking the winning candidates in some of the most competitive House, Senate and gubernatorial races in the country! Win awesome prizes and eternal bragging rights. Sign up today! Visit politico.com/playbookelectionchallenge to play.
 
FOR YOUR RADAR - SCOTUS VOTE LIKELY COMING OVER THE WEEKEND - Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell moved to set up a key procedural vote for Kavanaugh's nomination for Friday, POLITICO's Congress team reported, setting up a possible confirmation vote for the weekend.
 
POLLS POLLS POLLS - A fleet of polls from Fox News brings good news for Republicans' hopes of holding the Senate. The breakdown of the polls, from James (click through for the methodologies): "Republican Rep. Kevin Cramer has a double digit lead over Democratic Sen. Heidi Heitkamp in the North Dakota poll, with 53 percent of likely voters picking the Republican and 41 percent supporting the Democrat. ... In the Tennessee poll, Republican Rep. Marsha Blackburn leads former Democratic Gov. Phil Bredesen 48 percent to 43 percent. ... The poll of Arizona showed Democratic Rep. Kyrsten Sinema with 47 percent to 45 percent for GOP Rep. Martha McSally. ... 
 
"In Indiana, Democratic Sen. Joe Donnelly had the same narrow edge over Republican Mike Braun, 43 percent to 41 percent among likely voters, with Libertarian candidate Lucy Brenton getting 6 percent of the vote and 8 percent saying they were undecided. ... In Missouri, Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill and Republican Attorney General Josh Hawley are tied at 43 percent among likely voters, with 8 percent preferring another candidate. In a hypothetical two-way matchup, McCaskill and Hawley are tied at 46 percent among likely voters."
 
- A second Arizona Senate poll is also close. In a new poll from The Arizona Republic/Suffolk University, Sinema narrowly leads McSally, 45 percent to 42 percent. Additionally, Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey has a big lead over Democrat David Garcia in the poll, 50 percent to 38 percent. The poll was in the field from Sept. 27-30 and surveyed 500 likely voters.
 
- The Florida Senate race is (surprise!) also tight. In a new Mason-Dixon poll, Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson leads GOP Gov. Rick Scott 47 percent to 46 percent. The poll was conducted Sept. 24-27 and surveyed 815 likely voters.
 
- A new poll in PA-01 gives GOP Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick a narrow lead over Democrat Scott Wallace. In all three models in the Monmouth University survey, Fitzpatrick is ahead. In a standard midterm turnout model, Fitzpatrick is up 50 percent to 46 percent. In a low turnout model, he leads, 52 percent to 45 percent. In a Democratic turnout surge model, Fitzpatrick holds a 1-point advantage, 49 percent to 48 percent. The poll was in the field from Sept. 27-Oct. 1 and surveyed 353 likely voters. The poll was in the field from Sept. 27-Oct. 1 and surveyed 353 likely voters. 
 
- A pair of polls in the New Jersey Senate race both have Democratic Sen. Bob Menendez up but differ on the margin. A new Quinnipiac University poll shows Menendez leading Republican challenger Bob Hugin comfortably, 53 percent to 42 percent. One interesting dynamic highlighted by James: "More than half of voters, 59 percent, do not view Menendez as honest. Nearly two-thirds said Congress should be more of a check on President Trump, while only 28 percent said Congress is doing enough to check the president." The poll surveyed 1,058 likely voters from Sept. 25-Oct. 2. A second poll from Fairleigh Dickinson University has Menendez leading 43 percent to 37 percent. The poll surveyed 508
 likely voters from Sept. 26-30.
 
AD ROUNDUP - James and I watched more ads for you, with over 50 new ones released Wednesday. Some highlights: House Majority PAC is going into NY-24 and targeting GOP Rep. John Katko with a $1 million buy focused on health care. Even in a potential wave year, Katko has been seen as relatively safe. Two different ads that highlight Republicans' messaging strategy: tie Democrats to national figures. An NRSC ad hitting Democrat Phil Bredesen in Tennessee fires through a half-dozen Democratic senators, while an ad from GOP Rep. Devin Nunes in CA-22 namedrops Michael Avenatti. And one bonus ad, because I am an on-again, off-again wrestling fan ... Republican Carol Miller channels Stone Cold
 Steve Austin in an ad attacking Democrat Richard Ojeda in WV-03.
 
- FIRST IN SCORE - Nevada Democratic gubernatorial nominee Steve Sisolak released a hockey-themed ad promoting his record and his work to bring the Golden Knights to Las Vegas. "My slapshot could use a little work," he says, while wobbling on an ice rink. "But when it comes to bringing people together, to get things done, I'm basically a hall of famer." 
 
- Another recent trend in Republican ads: Defending Kavanaugh. In an ad from Hawley in Missouri, he says to the camera that Democratic senators "don't want the truth" and that he "will fight for the Supreme Court." A second ad from Republican Matt Rosendale in Montana strikes a similar tone. This television ad accuses Democratic Sen. Jon Tester of leading a "smear" on former White House doctor Ronny Jackson, tying it to Kavanaugh's nomination.
 
WHAT CHANGED? - The NRCC reserved $600,000 in airtime to back up GOP Rep. Mimi Walters in California's 45th District, according to The Hill's Reid Wilson - despite Walters reportedly saying last month that she didn't want the committee's help. At the time, NRCC chairman Steve Stivers didn't rule out spending in the district. 
 
WISCONSIN PANIC - Republican Gov. Scott Walker has long been sounding the alarm, telling supporters that the blue wave was real. He might be right, per BuzzFeed News' Henry Gomez (and please, click through to read his masterful opening): "Cautioning against complacency is common in political campaigns. Often it's a fundraising tactic to keep the cash coming. Maybe it started that way for Walker, but the poll numbers - and the fusion of an anti-Trump, anti-incumbent climate - have elevated the threat. The threat isn't only to Walker. It's also a referendum on Wisconsin's status as an epicenter of the conservative movement."
 
- And a different type of gubernatorial panic: Democrats are worried about Oregon Gov. Kate Brown. Willamette Week's Nigel Jaquiss: "Brown's path to re-election should be easy. She's running in one of the bluest states in the country. The economy is strong and unemployment remains at record lows. A volcanic hatred of President Donald Trump energizes her Democratic backers. ...The state's largest company, Nike, is a big supporter. She's been free from personal scandal. And her temperament is ideally suited to retail politics. Just one problem: Despite all the advantages Brown possesses, Oregonians don't much like her."
 
FACE OF THE PARTY - Republican gubernatorial nominees are largely white this cycle. The New York Times' Astead Herndon: "[I]n the first midterm elections under Donald J. Trump, whose campaign and presidency included strong appeals to white voters, Republicans have no black or Hispanic nominees for governor in 2018, and few from other racial minorities, in the 36 states holding elections for the position. The overwhelming majority are white men. ... Democrats this year, by contrast, have nominated black, Hispanic and Native American candidates for governor in Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Maryland and elsewhere. This lineup comes after years when Democrats were weak on diversity in
 governors' races."
 
MAYOR MIKE WATCH - Former New York City Mayor Mike Bloomberg is hosting a fundraiser at his Manhattan home to benefit Tennessee Democratic Senate nominee Phil Bredesen, CNBC's Brian Schwartz reported.
 
EARLY WARNING SIGNS - If you're looking for signs on Election Day on whether the blue wave is real,  plenty of districts on the East Coast will serve as early bellwethers.  Bloomberg's Sahil Kapur lists several regions to watch: the New Jersey suburbs, upstate New York, Syracuse and Staten Island, all over Pennsylvania, Virginia's D.C. suburbs, Charlotte suburbs and the Miami area.
 
TOGETHER AGAIN - President Donald Trump will speak to the International Association of Chiefs of Police in Orlando on Monday, where he'll be joined by Gov. Rick Scott, the Tampa Bay Times' Steve Contorno reported. Scott has at times kept the president at arm's length.
 
- Kansas GOP Rep. Kevin Yoder said he'd skip the president's rally in the state on Saturday, citing a scheduling conflict, The Kansas City Star's Allison Kite reported.
 
CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "People kept saying (to me), 'signs don't vote.' I don't give a (hoot) - he's outnumbering me!" Clinton, Wis., resident Barbara Bushue talking about her and her husband's lawn full of dueling political signs to the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel.
 
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