Subject: Playbook PM: Kavanaugh clears key hurdle
From: "Anna Palmer Jake Sherman Daniel Lippman" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 05 Oct 2018 10:54:08 -0600
List-Id: <1376319.xt.local>

Presented by PhRMA: Playbook is POLITICO's must-read briefing on what's driving the day in Washington                Oct 05, 2018 View in browser                   
 By Anna Palmer, Jake Sherman, Daniel Lippman, Eli Okun and Garrett Ross 
         
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FROM THE SENATE CHAMBER ...  With a flash of a right-hand thumbs-up from SEN. JOE MANCHIN (D-W.VA.), BRETT KAVANAUGH cleared a key hurdle to put him one Supreme Court.

51-49 ... THAT WAS the count, with ALASKA GOP SEN. LISA MURKOWSKI a no, and Manchin, SEN. JEFF FLAKE (R-ARIZ.) and SEN. SUSAN COLLINS (R-MAINE) all voting yes.

-- THE NEXT TURN OF THE SCREW: COLLINS announced she will speak on the Senate floor at 3 p.m. today. ... 

THE ONLY WAY THIS NOMINATION GOES DOWN is if one of the yeses on the procedural vote flips to no. From a political point of view, it's tough to see how you gain anything from voting two different ways on the same nomination.

OUR BIG QUESTION ... SEN. STEVE DAINES (R-MONT.) is flying to Montana for his daughter's wedding. Assuming Collins sticks as a yes, Manchin could potentially be the 50th vote -- if Daines stays in the Big Sky State. Will Manchin be OK with being the 50th vote? Daines has said he's arranged transportation to get back to D.C. 

-- POLITICO LEDEALL ... BURGESS EVERETT, ELANA SCHOR, ANDREW RESTUCCIA and JOHN BRESNAHAN, "Flake indicates he'll back Kavanaugh in final vote": "Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) appeared emotionless during the vote, betraying nothing of his confidence level moving forward. 

"His deputies were cautiously optimistic but still uncertain and said Collins has not indicated how she will vote on the final roll call. She will announce her position on Friday afternoon; One GOP senator said 'it's possible' that Collins votes one way on Friday's procedural vote and another way on Kavanaugh's final confirmation.

"'We feel good about it. But every senator votes their [conscience] ... I think today was a pretty good indication of where folks are,' said Sen. John Thune (R-S.D.), the No. 3 GOP leader. And Democrats weren't yet willing to wave the white flag even after Kavanaugh's initial triumph. 'This was a mistake. I don't know. I think we're going to have to let this vote settle. I think there's going to be a lot of thought,' said Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.), who is relatively close to Murkowski and Collins." POLITICO

SOME DETAILS ... SENATE MAJORITY LEADER MITCH MCCONNELL (R-KY.) entered the chamber at 10:17 a.m. and spoke about the nomination - he decried Democrats' tactics and talked about Kavanaugh's qualifications. This came after SENATE MINORITY LEADER CHUCK SCHUMER (D-N.Y.) said Republicans have a chance to nominate someone better for the country.

AT 10:29 A.M. - before the vote - Collins and Murkowski huddled in their seats next to each other.

MANCHIN entered the floor at 10:35 a.m. from the Democratic cloakroom but didn't vote until the result was clear -- he actually left the room during thee roll call. When Murkowski cast her vote, she did it standing, with her eyes locked straight ahead.

AT 10:44 A.M., Manchin gave his thumbs-up, all but ensuring Kavanaugh's ascent to the highest court in the land.

THE FINAL VOTE will be at some point tomorrow afternoon.

Happy Friday. The afternoon edition is dark on Monday for Columbus Day. Playbook will come out, though. 

ATTN. PRESIDENT TRUMP ... SPOTTED: AL FRANKEN on the Metro in D.C. Pic

NEW POLL ... THE CONGRESSIONAL LEADERSHIP FUND, the House GOP super PAC, has Texas Rep. Will Hurd, who represents a border district, up 55 percent to 30 percent over Gina Ortiz-Jones. This poll was conducted among 400 likely voters with a margin of error of 4.9 percent. PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP has a 53 percent favorable rating in the district. Hurd outpaces him, with a 59 percent favorable rating.
       
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JOBS REPORT -- IAN KULLGREN, "Unemployment drops to lowest level since 1969": "Unemployment fell to its lowest level in nearly half a century in September even as job growth slowed, allowing President Donald Trump to present a mostly-favorable economic picture in the critical home stretch before the midterm elections.

"The Labor Department reported 134,000 new jobs in September, down from 270,000 in August. Wage growth dipped, with average hourly earnings up 2.8 percent over the previous year, down from 2.9 percent in August ... But unemployment was 3.7 percent, down from 3.9 percent in August and its lowest level since December 1969." POLITICO

WHAT'S ON THE PRESIDENT'S MIND -- @realDonaldTrump at 9:03 a.m.: "The very rude elevator screamers are paid professionals only looking to make Senators look bad. Don't fall for it! Also, look at all of the professionally made identical signs. Paid for by Soros and others. These are not signs made in the basement from love! #Troublemakers"

-- FACT CHECK: This is a conspiracy theory without evidence, to which Senate Judiciary Chairman Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) also lent credence on TV this morning. The video

... at 9:06 a.m.: "Just out: 3.7% Unemployment is the lowest number since 1969!"

... at 10:59 a.m.: "Very proud of the U.S. Senate for voting 'YES' to advance the nomination of Judge Brett Kavanaugh!"

VALLEY TALK -- "Facebook's Hyperpartisan Publishers Are Deepening Divisions About Brett Kavanaugh's Confirmation," by BuzzFeed's Craig Silverman: "Earlier this year, Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg said the company would focus on reducing polarization and helping people find 'common ground.' ... 

"A divisive issue like the Kavanaugh confirmation, however, has been a boon for hyperpartisan publishers who've otherwise struggled thanks to Facebook's algorithm tweaks announced earlier this year. Powerful networks of conservative pages have mounted broad campaigns to support Kavanaugh's confirmation, while on the left the pages controlled by Occupy Democrats are pumping out pro-Ford content. But in spite of accusations of conservative bias leveled against Facebook, the right seems to be dominating." BuzzFeed

NYT'S SYDNEY EMBER in Las Vegas: "Jacky Rosen Wants to Flip Nevada for Democrats. But First, Kavanaugh": "It's a political moment that requires deft skills on the campaign trail - but Ms. Rosen is still a newcomer to politics, neither cagey nor glossy nor particularly electrifying. In a campaign season filled with rising Democratic stars ... she is not a phenomenon.

"Perhaps more significantly, Nevada is Nevada. ... Neither quite red nor quite blue, it may be receptive to a fiery takedown of [Sen. Dean] Heller over Judge Kavanaugh. Or it may not be. ... Even Ms. Rosen isn't sure. In an interview, she did not criticize Judge Kavanaugh nearly as much as some other Democrats have, and added that she would hit Mr. Heller over the confirmation process but also talk plenty about health care, education and immigration." NYT

2018 WATCH -- ALICE MIRANDA OLLSTEIN, "'It was not real insurance'": "Republican businessman Mike Braun says he wants all Americans to have health insurance just like his own workers - a pillar of his campaign to unseat Democratic Sen. Joe Donnelly in Indiana's exceedingly tight Senate race. ... 

"But while he may have kept premiums stable for a decade for his roughly 900 workers, deductibles are sky-high - meaning big out-of-pocket costs for anyone who gets sick. Employees of his company, Meyer Distributing, must spend $5,000 a year on health care before their bills are covered, and families pay double that, or $10,000 a year." POLITICO

-- AP'S GARY FINEOUT in Tallahassee, Fla.: "Questions of conflict mount over Florida governor's finances": "Florida Gov. Rick Scott's blind trust might not be so blind. Shortly after the multimillionaire governor took office in 2011, he established the trust - which is supposed to keep his investments secret from him - to shield him from potential conflicts of interest in his duties as governor.

"During his nearly eight years in office, Scott was required to file forms disclosing his investments. Now that he is running for U.S. Senate, however, his wife is also required to reveal her own investments - and they seem to mirror those in Scott's trust. ... The documents also show that Scott's investment portfolio has at times included holdings in companies with ties to Florida's government ... Scott says during his time in office he has had no knowledge of any of his investments, or those involving his family members." AP

-- WSJ'S REID EPSTEIN in Austin, Texas: "Beto O'Rourke Draws Big Crowds in Texas. But His Voters Tend Not to Vote": "Mr. O'Rourke remains dogged by questions that he can turn out the legions of young and Hispanic voters any Democrat will need to win an election in Texas. He has refused to employ a pollster or air negative TV ads. The latest Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll rated young people and Hispanics as the Democrats least interested in voting in the Nov. 6 midterm elections." WSJ

ON THE WORLD STAGE -- "North Korea looks to get China, Russia on side before denuclearization talks with U.S.," by South China Morning Post's Lee Jeong-ho: "Choe Son-hui, North Korea's vice-foreign minister who is responsible for handling negotiations with the U.S. on denuclearization, left Pyongyang on Thursday, according to a report by the Korean Central News Agency.

"She was expected to hold talks with officials in Beijing before heading to Moscow for more of the same, the report said, adding that representatives of all three countries would then sit down together. ... China and Russia were at odds with the U.S. during a UN Security Council meeting on the sanctions last month, at which Washington insisted they remain fully in place until there has been a 'complete and irreversible' denuclearization in North Korea." SCMP 

ANECDOTE DU JOUR -- BEN TERRIS in WaPo, "Why is Lindsey Graham acting like this?": "Shortly after Trump was elected, he invited Graham to the White House for a chat. They ate lunch with Chief of Staff Reince Priebus and national security adviser H.R. McMaster, beside a flat-screen television tuned to Fox News. Graham said the president had wanted to get his thoughts on national security, the subject that Graham considers his specialty. 

"So, he told the president his two biggest concerns were Iran and North Korea, at which point, the television started showing archived footage of North Korean missile launches. The president, Graham said, worried that this was happening in real time. 'That's old footage, old footage!' Graham said he told him, laughing now at the memory." WaPo

HMM ... SOUTH CHINA MORNING POST'S LAURIE CHEN and CATHERINE WONG: "Missing Interpol president Meng Hongwei 'under investigation' in China"

AFTERNOON READ -- "The Worst Job in American Politics: Why does J.B. Pritzker, or anyone, want to be governor of Illinois?" by Theo Meyer in POLITICO Magazine's Friday cover: "Illinois - the sixth-biggest state, by population - has seen its credit rating cut to near-junk status in the decade since the financial crisis. Its bonds are now considered as risky as those of Russia and Romania. Its pension system is in worse shape than that of almost any other state. Springfield, the state capital, has grown so paralyzed that Illinois' own governor compared the state to 'a banana republic.'

"And a bitter standoff between [Gov. Bruce] Rauner, a Republican, and Democrats in the state Legislature has left Illinois more than $7 billion in unpaid bills and a sense among the state's residents and creditors that Illinois might not be governable anymore. ... Looming over the campaign is not just the question of whether either candidate has a real plan to fix the state, but whether anyone can." POLITICO Magazine

HEADLINES THE PRESIDENT WILL LIKE -- "Auto Makers Consider Shifting More Manufacturing to North America," by WSJ's Chester Dawson and William Boston: "Within days of the U.S. and Canada reaching a pact to replace the roughly 25-year-old North American Free Trade Agreement, executives at several foreign car makers said they are considering changes to their supply chains that would shift more auto-parts manufacturing work to the U.S., Canada and Mexico." WSJ

-- WSJ'S SCOTT CALVERT: "Food Banks Reap Unexpected Bounty From Trade Disputes": "Food banks across the U.S. are gearing up for an influx of pork, apples and cheese when trucks begin delivering $1.2 billion of agricultural products the government agreed to buy from farmers to ease the pain of tariffs. ... 

"Food bank executives say they welcome the chance to feed more hungry Americans, but they also worry about the cost and logistical challenges of handling the unexpected bounty." WSJ

MEDIAWATCH -- "Hong Kong Plans to Expel a Financial Times Editor," by NYT's Austin Ramzy in Hong Kong: "The Hong Kong government has declined to renew the visa of a journalist for The Financial Times, a move that would result in his de facto expulsion and deepen concerns about the deterioration of media freedom ... 

"[Victor] Mallet is first vice president of the Hong Kong Foreign Correspondent's Club, and was the organization's main spokesman in August, when it hosted a talk by a Hong Kong independence advocate that was harshly criticized by the local government and mainland Chinese officials." NYT 

-- "This should be a column by Jamal Khashoggi," a space left blank by the WaPo's opinion section in protest of the disappearance of contributor Jamal Khashoggi: WaPo

-- Margot Roosevelt is now an L.A. Times reporter on the California economy beat. She previously worked at the Orange County Register and is an alum of Reuters, Time and WaPo.

TV TONIGHT -- Bob Costa sits down with NYT's Carl Hulse, CNN's Abby Phillip, WaPo's Ashley Parker and NBC's Kelly O'Donnell on PBS' "Washington Week" at 8 p.m.

SPOTTED: David Limbaugh at Union Station. Pic 

SPOTTED at a screening of "First Man" at the National Air and Space Museum on Thursday (trailer): Ryan Gosling, Jeff Shell, Ron Meyer, Hallie Jackson, Marty Bowen, Claire Foy, Pablo Schreiber, Lukas Haas, Olivia Hamilton, Anna Chazelle, Charles Rivkin and Susan Tolson, Phil Tahtakran, Mitch Rose, Cindy Gardner, David Green, Mike Rose, Mark Armstrong, Melissa Fitzgerald, Eric Fanning and Ben Masri-Cohen, Marty Baron, Ann Hornaday and Bob Costa.

BONUS BIRTHDAY (was yesterday): Small Business Administration head Linda McMahon, who celebrated turning 70 by skydiving in upstate New York. Video 

WELCOME TO THE WORLD -- Jess Nigro, general manager and head of tech and innovation policy at Daimler, and Nick Nigro, founder of Atlas Public Policy, welcomed Nata Zinn Nigro, whose middle name is inspired by Howard Zinn. Pic ... Another pic
           
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