Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score, presented by AARP: Kavanaugh vote jolts midterms one month out — Wall Street sends cash to Democrats — More big Q3 numbers for House hopefuls
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
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Date: Tue, 09 Oct 2018 08:03:20 -0600
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10/09/2018 10:00 AM EDT
        
By ZACH MONTELLARO ([email-masked]; @ZachMontellaro)

        
Editor's Note: This edition of Free Morning Score is published weekdays at 10 a.m. POLITICO Pro Campaigns subscribers hold exclusive early access to the newsletter each morning at 6 a.m. To learn more about POLITICO Pro's comprehensive policy intelligence coverage, policy tools and services, click here. 
          THE TOPLINES         
JUSTICE BRETT KAVANAUGH - Republicans are convinced that Brett Kavanaugh's successful Supreme Court nomination is just what they need to help them keep hold of the Senate. "It's been a great political gift for us. The tactics have energized our base," Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell told The Washington Post's Seung Min Kim. "I want to thank the mob, because they've done the one thing we were having trouble doing, which was energizing our base." Republicans also teed off on embattled Democratic senators who voted against Kavanaugh, most notably North Dakota's Heidi Heitkamp. In response, Heitkamp released an ad explaining her vote, citing her support for Justice Neil Gorsuch during
 his confirmation battle. West Virginia's Joe Manchin, the lone Democrat to back the judge's confirmation, is also taking fire from all sides. Republicans are calling it too little, too late, while the AP's Steve Peoples reported that the state's Democratic base is furious with him. 

Meanwhile, Democrats are apoplectic over the confirmation, equally convinced that the vote will galvanize their base. To wit: NARAL launched a $1 million campaign targeting House Republicans saying "women are under attack." March On and Swing Left announced a series of marches across the country to drive early voters to the polls.

But who will be energized the most, come November? My Campaign Pro colleague James Arkin: "'Anger always lasts longer than happiness,' said Celinda Lake, a veteran Democratic pollster. 'Our side is going to be angry. We know anger lasts. What we don't know is, does winning lead to energy or does it lead to complacency? That's going to be the challenge they're going to face.' ...

"Alex Conant, a former top aide to Sen. Marco Rubio, pointed out that a little more than a month ago, the investigations into [President Donald] Trump's former campaign chairman Paul Manafort and lawyer Michael Cohen were headline news. The four weeks between Kavanaugh's confirmation vote and Election Day is a political eternity, Conant said. Republicans need to run TV ads on Kavanaugh to continue to stoke their voters' anger and avoid distractions."

On the fundraising front, just about everyone is opening up their wallets. MSNBC's Kasie Hunt reported that one fundraising email from Democratic Sen. Kamala Harris on behalf of Heitkamp raised $400,000 in 24 hours. James also reported that the Senate Leadership Fund received "millions of dollars in new commitments" during the past week. It is even trickling down to House races:The NRCC's Matt Gorman tweeted that the group's low-dollar fundraising spiked last week (though, as usual, the NRCC did not reveal dollar amounts), while the DCCC also touted massive fundraising hauls.

And if you're itching to look past the midterms: The president dialed up The Washington Post's Philip Rucker to say Alaska GOP Sen. Lisa Murkowski will "never recover" from her no vote, with former vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin hinting she might challenge Murkowski in 2022. Meanwhile, the ire of the Democratic Party came down on Maine Republican Sen. Susan Collins, who backed Kavanaugh. A crowdfunding campaign to back Collins' eventual 2020 Maine Senate challenger has raised over $3.6 million, while former Obama national security adviser Susan Rice indicated she was mulling a bid.

Good Tuesday morning and welcome to the new look Score. Everything's cleaner! As always, email me at [email-masked] or DM me at @ZachMontellaro.

Email the great Campaign Pro team at [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked] and [email-masked]. Follow them on Twitter: @PoliticoScott @ec_schneider, @JamesArkin and @DanielStrauss4.

Days until the 2018 election: 28.

PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP SAYS A RED WAVE IS COMING ON ELECTION DAY. Is he right, or will the tide turn blue? Compete against the nation's top political minds in the POLITICO Playbook Election Challenge, by correctly picking the winning candidates in some of the most competitive House, Senate and gubernatorial races in the country. Win awesome prizes and eternal bragging rights. Sign up today: Visit politico.com/playbookelectionchallenge to play.
          IN THE TRENCHES         
Q3 NUMBERS - Stop me if you've heard this one before: Democrats are raising buckets of cash.

- FIRST IN SCORE - National: The Democratic PAC End Citizens United raised $5 million. The group had 110,000 donors this cycle, with 91 percent of donations being $25 or less.

- NV-Sen: Democratic Rep. Jacky Rosen raised more than $7 million, with $2.5 million cash on hand.

- WI-Sen: Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin raised $6 million, with $5 million cash on hand.

- AZ-08: Democrat Hiral Tipirneni raised $916,000 and has $469,000 cash on hand. 

- MN-08: Democrat Joe Radinovich announced he raised over $1.25 million.

- NJ-11: Democrat Mikie Sherrill raised $2.7 million, with $2.6 million cash on hand.

- NY-02: Democrat Liuba Grechen Shirley raised $715,000, per Spectrum News.

- NY-27: Democrat Nate McMurray announced he raised $475,000, with the "vast majority" in the seven weeks since GOP Rep. Chris Collins was indicted.

WHAT'S IN AN AD? - In a bid to maintain control of the House, an increasing number of Republican ads have stretched or otherwise distorted the truth. POLITICO's Rachael Bade: "In several ads, military vets - who count as some of Democrats' best recruits to defeat sitting Republicans this year - have had their patriotism called into question. ... Democrats say the spots, aired mostly by the outside GOP super PAC Congressional Leadership Fund and the National Republican Congressional Committee, smack of desperation. In some cases, local Republicans, religious leaders and newspaper editorial boards have have denounced the attacks. The aggressive tactics highlight a party grappling to save its
 majority. 

"Democrats who've come under attack have short or nonexistent records in political office, leaving Republicans to pick over their personal lives for any scraps to use against them. ... Targets of the ads have called for them to be taken down, and spent time and resources trying to rebut the claims. Republicans involved in making the ads say that's exactly their intention: to keep Democrats on the defensive. They also argue that Democrats would be doing the same thing if the roles were reversed."

** Presented by AARP: There's only one true deciding factor in this year's elections: 50-plus voters. They won't be ignored and their votes are up for grabs. Medicare, Social Security, support for family caregivers, and prescription drug costs are all on the line-so you can be sure they'll be voting in record numbers. 
aarp.org/vote **

POLITICO RACE RATINGS CHANGES - With four weeks to go until Election Day, the latest shift in POLITICO's race ratings brings good news for the Democrats' chances to retake the House. Ratings guru Steve Shepard explains his changes, but here's the big takeaways: Of the 14 House changes, 13 shift toward the Democrats. With these changes, 209 seats are at least leaning towards team blue - only 9 shy of the majority. The lone Senate shift moves Sen. Bob Menendez's (D-N.J.) seat towards Republicans, to lean Democratic.

BENEFICIAL HEADLINES - After Phil Bredesen, the Democratic Senate nominee in Tennessee, said he would have voted for Kavanaugh if he was in Congress, Priorities USA Action, one of the top Democratic super PACs, said it won't back him (it also said it won't support West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin), the Daily Beast's Lachlan Markay and Sam Stein reported. You can probably classify this one as a headline Bredesen and Manchin ultimately enjoy: Priorities hadn't actually spent in either race yet, while they also now have a talking point to highlight their independence from the Democratic establishment. The other pillars of the Democratic Senate establishment, Senate Majority PAC and the DSCC,
 said they are not abandoning the pair, per the Washington Examiner's Al Weaver.

POLLS POLLS POLLS - A new poll shows a tight race in the Florida gubernatorial and Senate races. The Florida Southern University poll gives Democrat Andrew Gillum 47 percent compared to former GOP Rep. Ron DeSantis' 44 percent in the gubernatorial race, while GOP Gov. Rick Scott leads Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson, 46 percent to 44 percent. The poll surveyed 476 likely voters from Oct. 1-5.

WALL STREET BLUES - The economy is booming, but those on Wall Street who are benefitting the most from the "Trump bump" are increasingly backing Democrats. The New York Times' Shane Goldmacher: "Four years ago, in the last congressional midterm, Republican incumbents and candidates outraised Democratic counterparts by more than $50 million in direct donations from the broader finance, insurance and real estate industries, according to the Center for Responsive Politics. ... That figure will shift, possibly substantially, when candidates reveal their latest fund-raising hauls later this month. But Democrats have already surpassed their 2012 and 2014 totals, and most Republicans with ties to
 Wall Street described a grim political outlook ... ".

FIRST IN SCORE - ON THE AIRWAVES - The Democratic outside group VoteVets is going up with a new ad in Colorado's 6th District, promoting Democrat Jason Crow's military record and his work with veterans. "Jason Crow is the new generation of leadership we need," a veteran said in the ad. The ad will run for 10 days starting today, with a $609,000 television buy and a $75,000 digital buy. VoteVets also extended two ads: One in MI-08 promoting Democrat Elissa Slotkin ($538,000 in TV and $75,000 in digital over two weeks) and an ad in MI-01 hitting Republican Jim Hagedorn ($310,000 on television in the next week). 

- FIRST IN SCORE - Senate Majority PAC released a new ad in West Virginia, hitting Republican Patrick Morrisey over his lobbying career and tying his work for drug firms to the opioid crisis. Watch the ad here.

- FIRST IN SCORE - House Majority PAC is also hitting the airwaves with three new ads. The first ad in NV-04 hits former GOP Rep. Cresent Hardy as "an example of everything that's wrong with Nevada politics," backed by a buy of $1 million. The second ad in NJ-07 goes after GOP Rep. Leonard Lance for his long political career and votes for the GOP health care and tax plans, with a $1 million buy behind it. The last ad targets GOP Rep. Pete Sessions in TX-32, saying he has "forgotten about Texas," citing his vote on the GOP health care plan. This ad is backed by a $2.3 million buy.

- Meanwhile, GOP Rep. Mike Coffman's latest ad paints him as a different kind of Republican ("one of us," the tagline at the end of the ad reads) on immigration, telling the story of his intervention to help a family protect their adopted daughter from potential deportation. Watch the ad here.

CRAMER QUESTIONS #METOO - North Dakota GOP Rep. Kevin Cramer, who is challenging Heitkamp, questioned the veracity of the #MeToo movement in an interview with The New York Times' Jonathan Martin. Cramer said that North Dakotans appreciated people saying what they thought, even if others won't say it. "That you're just supposed to believe somebody because they said it happened," he said, when asked for an example. "They cannot understand this movement toward victimization. They are pioneers of the prairie. These are tough people whose grandparents were tough and great-grandparents were tough," he continued, talking about women in his family. 

MAYOR MIKE WATCH - Former New York City Mayor Mike Bloomberg cut a $250,000 check to Gillum's gubernatorial political committee, the Miami Herald's David Smiley reported.

- Everytown for Gun Safety, which Bloomberg co-founded, has committed to spending $2 million in Florida, via the Miami Herald. The group backs Gillum and Nelson, but also some state Republicans. The group will spend an additional $3 million total in Pennsylvania, Minnesota and Colorado. It will back Democratic Gov. Tom Wolf in Pennsylvania and Democratic Rep. Tim Walz' Minnesota gubernatorial bid, along with statehouse candidates in Minnesota and Colorado.

FIRST IN SCORE - FIELD WORK - For Our Future, a project between labor groups and Next Gen America, announced it will expand its direct voter canvass program to 7.5 million doors, up 2 million from the original goal. They're knocking in doors in Florida, Michigan, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin.

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "Let's say that I like Taylor's music about 25% less now, OK?" Trump reacting on Monday to Taylor Swift's endorsement of Bredesen.

** Presented by AARP: Americans 50 and over are the nation's most powerful voting bloc. In fact, more than 60 million of them voted in 2016-and this year, they're more motivated than ever to making sure that their voices are heard in Washington. 
They're frustrated with broken government. And they're fed up with politicians who'd rather get into fights than get results. The issues they care about most including Medicare, Social Security, support for family caregivers and prescription drug costs, are all on the line. America's 50-plus voters have put the candidates on notice. Anyone who ignores them will feel it on Election Day. aarp.org/vote **
    
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