Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score, presented by AARP: IE expenditures show expanding House map — 2 tight races in Nevada — The Kavanaugh vote tea leaves
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
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Date: Wed, 10 Oct 2018 08:04:22 -0600
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10/10/2018 10:00 AM EDT
        
By ZACH MONTELLARO ([email-masked]; @ZachMontellaro)

        
Editor's Note: This edition of Free Morning Score is published weekdays at 10 a.m. POLITICO Pro Campaigns subscribers hold exclusive early access to the newsletter each morning at 6 a.m. To learn more about POLITICO Pro's comprehensive policy intelligence coverage, policy tools and services, click here. 

          THE TOPLINES         
THE EXPANDING MAP - How do you know the battle for the House is really wide? Just look at where the big four - The DCCC, NRCC, House Majority PAC and Congressional Leadership Fund - has made independent expenditures (this includes everything from mailers to online ads to big television buys). 

Since August, the number of districts that have seen independent expenditures from at least one of the four has increased nearly every week. Starting at 13 weeks out from the election, 13 districts saw some sort of expenditure. Last week, five weeks out, 57 districts saw at least one independent expenditure. In between, there's been a gradual climb, with just one slight dip 12 weeks out from Election Day.

Despite some high-profile triage efforts, the map overall has done nothing but grow in the eyes of the top spenders, pushing into more and more districts - largely, but not exclusively, Republican ones. Some districts that have come online just in the past month: PA-16 (which saw the DCCC spending to support Democrat Ron DiNicola in the past two weeks), NV-03 (where the DCCC, HMP and CLF have all dumped money into the race between Republican Danny Tarkanian and Democrat Susie Lee), NV-04 (which has seen both party committees spending) and WV-03 (where the DCCC spent for the first time against Republican Carol Miller last week).

And expenditures this week show no sign of the map shrinking. My colleague Elena Schneider reported that the CLF is jumping into UT-04 to back GOP Rep. Mia Love, placing a $1 million television ad buy starting today, the first independent expenditure from the group in the district this cycle. Here's that ad (first in Score) promoting Love as a champion of lower taxes and few regulations while calling Democrat Ben McAdams a "professional politician" who believes in "bigger government." My Playbook friends also reported that the DCCC launched a $250,000 television campaign (the ad) hitting GOP Rep. French Hill in AR-02, the first major IE TV expenditure from the group in the district (HMP ran
 a digital campaign in the district in August).

Good Wednesday morning. I wore a plain blue shirt yesterday and my first thought was "I look like Mike Braun!" Campaigns have ruined me. As always, email me at [email-masked] or DM me at @ZachMontellaro.

Email the great Campaign Pro team at [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked] and [email-masked]. Follow them on Twitter: @PoliticoScott @ec_schneider, @JamesArkin and @DanielStrauss4.

Days until the 2018 election: 27.

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PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP SAYS A RED WAVE IS COMING ON ELECTION DAY. Is he right, or will the tide turn blue? Compete against the nation's top political minds in the POLITICO Playbook Election Challenge, by correctly picking the winning candidates in some of the most competitive House, Senate and gubernatorial races in the country. Win awesome prizes and eternal bragging rights. Sign up today: Visit politico.com/playbookelectionchallenge to play.
          IN THE TRENCHES         
MORE Q3 NUMBERS - AZ-Sen: Democratic Rep. Kyrsten Sinema raised nearly $7 million.

- FL-26: Democrat Debbie Mucarsel-Powell raised over $1.6 million.

- GA-06: Democrat Lucy McBath raised $962,000, with $706,000 cash on hand.

- IL-14: Democrat Lauren Underwood raised over $2 million.

- TX-22: Democrat Sri Preston Kulkarni raised $575,000.

** Presented by AARP: There's only one true deciding factor in this year's elections: 50-plus voters. They won't be ignored and their votes are up for grabs. Medicare, Social Security, support for family caregivers, and prescription drug costs are all on the line-so you can be sure they'll be voting in record numbers. 
aarp.org/vote **

POLLS POLLS POLLS - Both the Nevada Senate and gubernatorial races are tight. In a new NBC News/Marist Poll, GOP Sen. Dean Heller leads Democratic Rep. Jacky Rosen, 44 percent to 42 percent, while the Libertarian candidate gets 8 percent. The gubernatorial race is similarly close: Republican Adam Laxalt leads Democrat Steve Sisolak, 44 percent to 40 percent, with the Libertarian candidate also pulling in 8 percent. The poll surveyed 574 likely voters between Sept. 30-Oct. 3.

- Democrat Mikie Sherrill is leading Republican Jay Webber in a new poll in New Jersey's 11th District. The Monmouth University poll had Sherrill leading among all three of their models: In the traditional model she's up 48 percent to 44 percent. In a Democratic turnout surge model she leads 50 percent to 43 percent, while in a low turnout model she is up 48 percent to 45 percent. The poll surveyed 356 likely voters from Oct. 3-7.

- Democrat Jennifer Wexton is leading GOP Rep. Barbara Comstock in a new VA-10 poll. In the poll from The Washington Post/Schar School, Wexton is up 55 percent to 43 percent. The poll surveyed 866 likely voters and was in the field from Sept. 19-Oct. 5.

- A new Maryland gubernatorial poll has GOP Gov. Larry Hogan sailing to reelection. In a poll from The Washington Post/University of Maryland, he's leading Democrat Ben Jealous 58 percent to 38 percent. The poll was in the field from Oct. 4-7 and surveyed 648 likely voters.

- Two polls in Arizona found the Republican candidate leading in both the Senate and gubernatorial races. The poll from the Republican firm OH Predictive Insights for ABC15 Arizona found GOP Rep. Martha McSally leading Democratic Rep. Kyrsten Sinema, 47 percent to 41 percent. The poll surveyed 600 likely voters Oct. 1-2. The gubernatorial race poll, conducted by OH Predictive Insights for the Arizona Capitol Times, found GOP Gov. Doug Ducey leading Democrat David Garcia, 54 percent to 37 percent. The poll surveyed 600 likely voters on Oct. 3.

- Democratic Gov. Gina Raimondo has a lead over Republican Allan Fung in a new Rhode Island gubernatorial poll. In a Providence Journal/Rhode Island Public Radio/ABC6 poll conducted by the University of New Hampshire, Raimondo has 48 percent to Fung's 34 percent, with Independent Joseph Trillo at 5 percent. The poll surveyed 503 likely voters from Sept. 27-Oct. 6.

THE KAVANAUGH TEA LEAVES - Democrats are lining up to challenge Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) in 2020, fresh off her vote to confirm Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court. From my Campaign Pro colleague James Arkin: "There's no consensus candidate waiting in the wings to take on Collins, though some Democrats are already buzzing about Jared Golden, the Marine veteran and state representative running against GOP Rep. Bruce Poliquin in the northern half of the state. Democratic Rep. Chellie Pingree is also seen as a potential top challenger, though she lost badly to Collins in 2002.

"Several other Democrats have publicly expressed interest. In addition to [state House speaker Sara] Gideon, who told POLITICO she would think about it over the next month or two, Emily Cain, the executive director of EMILY's List and a two-time congressional candidate in Maine, told the Portland Press Herald she would consider a bid. Adam Cote, the runner-up in this year's Democratic gubernatorial primary, told POLITICO he had received messages from people encouraging him to run and that he would consider a campaign after this year's midterms."

- Meanwhile, Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) is facing pressure from conservatives over her no vote. POLITICO's Burgess Everett: "Murkowski brushed off the idea that her vote could cost her with the GOP, either in elections or within the Senate itself. 'I took the vote that I took, and I'm good with it. I'm moving forward. I think we all need to be. I'm not going to dwell on the what-ifs,' she said Tuesday evening. ...

"[But] the conservative Club for Growth dispatched a staffer to Alaska over the weekend to begin scouting a challenger, and a spokeswoman said, 'It's clear that voters weren't happy about what Murkowski did.' And the Alaska GOP is weighing whether to issue a statement condemning Murkowski's vote, withdraw its support for her or even find challengers to her reelection campaign, according to The Associated Press."

ON THE AIRWAVES - An analysis from The Campaign Finance Institute found that independent expenditures in House races are outpacing IE spending in the 2016 election. So far, spending on the House through Oct. 7 totaled $200 million (up from $102 million in 2016), while spending on the Senate has dipped to $227 million, down from $299 million at the same point in 2016. The biggest spender has been the CLF, which has dropped over $62 million. SMP/Majority Forward comes in second at $53 million, and the DCCC takes third with $41 million.

TRUMP ON THE TRAIL - The president's campaign schedule is in hyperdrive as he seeks to turn the midterms into a referendum on himself (relatedly, here's the Des Moines Register readout of the president's rally in Council Bluff, Iowa, Tuesday night). POLITICO's Christopher Cadelago: "Presidents seldom lean in so far ahead of their first midterm election, fearing that an embarrassing rebuke could weaken their public esteem and presage disaster for their reelection bids. But Trump often personalizes events and tends to approach issues through the lens of his own experiences. He's also shown little concern for shifting responsibility when the situation deteriorates.

"Trump is expected to continue the 'me-centric' strategy at rallies in Erie, Pa., on Wednesday, Lebanon, Ohio, on Friday and Richmond, Ky., on Saturday - giving voice to what White House officials and Republicans close to the president believe is their best hope to counteract a Democratic wave, based on polling, but one opponents and some in the GOP contend could backfire by alienating middle-of-road and marginal district voters."

AD ROUNDUP - The Campaign Pro team watched over 120 ads released Monday (there was no Indiana Jones Ark of the Covenant-style face melting, but we came close) and rounded them up for your perusal. The NRCC and House Majority PAC both released a barrage of ads in battleground districts across the country. And one bonus ad: Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown went up with an ad with his dog Franklin, talking about how he worked to protect animals from tainted pet treats (cute pets is a quick way to get earned media, folks).

- FIRST IN SCORE - The League of Conservation Voters Victory Fund is launching a digital campaign targeting GOP Rep. Peter Roskam in IL-06 over the environment. The $291,000 campaign features two ads saying "polluters heart Peter Roskam" and that the "polluter in chief" Donald Trump can count on Roskam's vote.

- FIRST IN SCORE - CLF is going after Democrat Xochitl Torres Small in NM-02 for the first time, launching a digital and television campaign. "You know [House Minority Leader Nancy] Pelosi's priorities," the ad says. "Higher taxes, more spending, job-killing regulations and Xochitl Torres Small," before hitting her over taxes and health care. "Xochitl Torres Small: liberal like Pelosi, a big mistake for New Mexico."

MIDTERM MESSAGING - Republicans have long tried to repeal the Affordable Care Act. But on the trail, many are saying they back a key provision - insurance coverage for those with preexisting conditions. Bloomberg's Sahil Kapur: "The issue illustrates the shift in health-care politics since Republicans exploited antipathy to the 2010 law to win subsequent elections. This year is different, as numerous polls show health-care as the No. 1 issue for voters in the 2018 midterm elections and that protecting those with pre-existing conditions is overwhelmingly popular across party lines. 'It's remarkable how much the ACA and the efforts to repeal it have made protections for people with
 pre-existing conditions something of a political third rail,' said Larry Levitt, senior vice president for health reform at the nonpartisan Kaiser Family Foundation."

DELAYED DISCLOSURE - Super PACs are increasingly adopting a (legal) strategy to delay revealing their donors, by starting a PAC after a reporting deadline and raising and spending money before the next. Great reporting by our own Maggie Severns and ProPublica's Derek Willis tallied at least $21.6 million in spending that used this strategy, split roughly evenly among Democrats and Republicans. 

THE PIGGY BANK - The RNC saw a huge spike in fundraising last week timed to the fight over Kavanaugh's nomination. The RNC told Fox News' Brooke Singman that it raised $5.7 million from Sept. 30-Oct. 5, including $2.2 million online just on Sept. 30.

2020 WATCH - United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley is resigning from her post at the end of the year. And in what is surely an attempt to quell any rumors (not that that's ever stopped Twitter), Haley wrote in her resignation letter obtained by The Washington Post that "I will surely not be a candidate for any office in 2020." In the Oval Office, Haley told reporters that "I can promise you what I'll be doing is campaigning for this one [while gesturing to the president], so I look forward to supporting the president in the next election."

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "[W]hat goes on in Bill Kristol's head day to day is a lot different than what goes on on the road in Iowa and New Hampshire," Former Haley aide Rob Godfrey dismissing the idea that she would try to primary the president in 2020, to BuzzFeed News.

** Presented by AARP: Americans 50 and over are the nation's most powerful voting bloc. In fact, more than 60 million of them voted in 2016-and this year, they're more motivated than ever to making sure that their voices are heard in Washington. 
They're frustrated with broken government. And they're fed up with politicians who'd rather get into fights than get results. The issues they care about most including Medicare, Social Security, support for family caregivers and prescription drug costs, are all on the line. America's 50-plus voters have put the candidates on notice. Anyone who ignores them will feel it on Election Day. aarp.org/vote **
    
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