Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score, presented by AARP: Health care dominates as the clock ticks down to Election Day — GOP homes in on Heitkamp — SLF makes late buy in Montana
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
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Date: Thu, 11 Oct 2018 08:05:58 -0600
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10/11/2018 10:00 AM EDT
        
By ZACH MONTELLARO ([email-masked]; @ZachMontellaro)

        
Editor's Note: This edition of Free Morning Score is published weekdays at 10 a.m. POLITICO Pro Campaigns subscribers hold exclusive early access to the newsletter each morning at 6 a.m. To learn more about POLITICO Pro's comprehensive policy intelligence coverage, policy tools and services, click here. 
          THE TOPLINES         
Expect to hear about almost nothing except health care as we inch closer to Election Day. Republicans' messaging on health care was on full display in President Donald Trump's op-ed in USA Today, where he took aim at a "Medicare for All" plan back Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.). "The Democrats' plan means that after a life of hard work and sacrifice, seniors would no longer be able to depend on the benefits they were promised," the president wrote. "In practice, the Democratic Party's so-called Medicare for All would really be Medicare for None." And while the president's op-ed is loaded up with inaccuracies (The Washington Post Fact Checker's Glenn Kessler does a good job at detailing them,
 noting that "most every sentence contained a misleading statement or a falsehood"), a message similar to the president's is gaining steam in Republican ads across the country.

And that has Democrats hoppin' mad, because there is a fairly deep division among them about what their next move should be on health care. About half of current House Democrats have signed on to a Medicare for All bill, but the nonpartisan Kaiser Family Foundation tracks four broad legislative paths forward Democrats have pushed, a wide disagreement in the party. Battleground House Democratic hopefuls have been especially wary of tying themselves to Sanders' plan, but are still facing a barrage of ads my POLITICO colleague Adam Cancryn described as ranging "from misleading to outright false." The ads are an effort to shift the narrative to when Republican owned health care in elections,
 and attacks on the Affordable Care Act helped win the day. More from Adam on the GOP's strategy: 

"As for whether the ads are actually true? That's beside the point, Republicans say. They argue there's little difference between Medicare for All and other Democratic ideas for expanding coverage, because they all increase the government's role in health care. Ultimately, the goal is to make voters associate personally popular Democratic candidates with the broader party, viewed with more skepticism in these traditionally red districts."

Democrats have remained on offense, hammering away at Republicans for not protecting people with pre-existing conditions based on their efforts to repeal Obamacare (a true sign of the times). In an effort to cut off Democratic attacks, Republicans increasingly say in ads they'll protect people with pre-existing conditions and have introduced legislation promising to do so - though the measure is vague.

And Senate Democrats took another step to box in Republicans, forcing a vote on Wednesday on the Trump administration's expansion of short-term health plans that Republicans say offer more choice. Every Republican but Sen. Susan Collins voted to protect the plans, which Democrats decry as "junk" plans that offer minimal coverage and further undermine protections for pre-existing conditions.

Good Thursday morning. As always, email me at [email-masked] or DM me at @ZachMontellaro.

Email the great Campaign Pro team at [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked] and [email-masked]. Follow them on Twitter: @PoliticoScott @ec_schneider, @JamesArkin and @DanielStrauss4.

Days until the 2018 election: 26.

POLITICO IS PARTNERING WITH THE MILKEN INSTITUTE to bring a special edition of the POLITICO Pulse newsletter to the Milken Institute Future of Health Summit. Written by Dan Diamond, the newsletter will take readers inside one of the most influential gatherings of global health industry leaders and innovators as they tackle today's most pressing health challenges. The newsletter will run Oct. 23-24. Sign up today to begin receiving exclusive coverage on Day One of the summit. 

YOUR 2018 MIDTERMS HQ: The countdown is on. Policy professionals know the 2018 midterms represent more than keeping track of winners and losers. The outcome of high-stake contests could dramatically alter the course of policymaking across the country. Go beyond election night with POLITICO Pro's 2018 Midterms HQ. Read More.
          IN THE TRENCHES         
MORE Q3 NUMBERS - MI-Sen: Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow raised more than $1.8 million with about $3 million cash on hand, Campaign Pro's James Arkin scooped.

- CO-06: Democrat Jason Crow raised over $2.2 million and has about $1.2 million cash on hand.

- NJ-07: Democrat Tom Malinowski raised over $2.2 million and has over $900,000 cash on hand.

BATTLE FOR THE SENATE - All eyes are on North Dakota. If Republican Rep. Kevin Cramer successfully knocks off Democratic Sen. Heidi Heitkamp, basically any hopes the Democrats had for taking back the Senate are gone. And despite big leads in public polling for Cramer and prognosticators predicting doom for Heitkamp, she isn't ready to throw in the towel quite yet. POLITICO's Burgess Everett: "In an interview on Wednesday, Heitkamp acknowledged she's facing an uphill battle but hinted that she believes Cramer could still self-immolate, pointing to his comments on sexual harassment and a new trade deal with Canada. ...

"'There's a level of arrogance and rash statements that doesn't reflect the typical North Dakota, common-sense contemplative, work-together kind of attitude,' Heitkamp said. 'You can say all these crazy things, but sometimes the crazy things you say and how you behave has real consequences here.' And her allies assert that Heitkamp is far from done. They point to her universal name ID, retail campaign skills and her surprise win in 2012 despite being down in the polls. In a state of just 750,000 people, and where perhaps 150,000 votes could win the race, winning over even 15,000 voters in the next month could make the difference, they argue."

LATE ENTRY - The Senate Leadership Fund is making a late buy in Montana, a sign that the race there could be tightening, James reported. SLF "will spend its $1 million the week of October 23, two weeks before Election Day, a spokesman confirmed to POLITICO. The ad campaign will be the group's first spending in the race."

** Presented by AARP: There's only one true deciding factor in this year's elections: 50-plus voters. They won't be ignored and their votes are up for grabs. Medicare, Social Security, support for family caregivers, and prescription drug costs are all on the line-so you can be sure they'll be voting in record numbers. 
aarp.org/vote **

POLLS POLLS POLLS - Wisconsin Republican Gov. Scott Walker has the narrowest of leads against Democrat Tony Evers in the gubernatorial race. In a Marquette University Law School poll, Walker is up over Evers by 1 point, 47 percent to 46 percent. The Senate race is much less close: Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin leads Republican Leah Vukmir, 53 percent to 43 percent. The poll surveyed 799 likely voters from Oct. 3-7.

- Minnesota DFLers are leading in three statewide races in a new NBC News/Marist poll. In the gubernatorial race, Democratic Rep. Tim Walz leads Republican Jeff Johnson, 51 percent to 36 percent, while the Libertarian gets 6 percent. In the Senate special election, Democratic Sen. Tina Smith leads Republican Karin Housley, 54 percent to 38 percent. In the Senate election, Democratic Sen. Amy Klobuchar leads Republican Jim Newberger, 60 percent to 32 percent, while the Green candidate gets 4 percent. The poll surveyed 637 likely voters from Sept. 30-Oct. 4.

- Democratic Rep. Conor Lamb is leading GOP Rep. Keith Rothfus in PA-17, the only member-on-member election this cycle. In a new Monmouth University poll, he's up across all three of the group's models: Lamb leads 54 percent to 42 percent in the standard model. In a Democratic turnout surge model, Lamb is up 55 percent to 41 percent. In a low-turnout model, it is 54 percent to 42 percent. The poll surveyed 354 likely voters from Oct. 5-8.

- Democrat Ned Lamont has a comfortable lead over Republican Bob Stefanowski in the Connecticut gubernatorial race. In a new Quinnipiac University poll, Lamont leads, 47 percent to 39 percent. The survey polled 767 likely voters from Oct. 3-8 (here's more details from Campaign Pro's Daniel Strauss).

- Republican Dino Rossi has a big lead over Democrat Kim Schrier in a new WA-08 poll. The poll from Crosscut conducted by Elway found him up, 49 percent to 39 percent. The poll surveyed 400 registered voters from Oct. 4-9. 

TRUMP ON THE TRAIL - Fox News has increasingly begun to cut away from (or not air) Trump campaign rallies live. POLITICO's Jason Schwartz and Gabby Orr (in her first POLITICO byline): "During three Trump rallies last week, Fox News showed clips and highlights from his speeches but stuck largely with its normal weekday primetime programming. ... Fox still provides livestreams of the campaign events online, but in a crucial period with the midterms less than a month away, some in the White House are worried that the president is losing a prime-time megaphone to his base."

 - At a Pennsylvania rally Wednesday night, Trump mocked the #MeToo movement, POLITICO's Brent Griffiths reported.

TRIAGE - The NRCC is cutting of Republican Lea Marquez Peterson in AZ-02, a source familiar with the buy told Campaign Pro's Elena Schneider (CNN's Dan Merica first reported the news). She's running against former Democratic Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick.

COALITION BUILDING - Democrats are leaning heavily on veteran candidates in their bid to take back the House. But party bigwigs are not reaching out specifically to veterans, The New York Times' Jasper Craven reported. "Top Democratic Party leadership 'doesn't call us for anything,' says Terron Sims II, an Iraq War veteran and vice chair for recruitment on the D.N.C.'s Veterans and Military Families Council. Working as an unpaid volunteer, Sims connects campaigns with organizers of veterans across the country. Sims and at least one other council member have sought a formal meeting with [DNC chief Tom] Perez for more than a year to highlight their organizing potential and warn of Republican
 efforts to mobilize veterans. He says their requests have been ignored."

THE GOP'S SAVING GRACE? - California Republicans are banking on a campaign against the state's gas tax to help tilt close House seats. The Wall Street Journal's Alejandro Lazo: "National Republicans, including House Speaker Paul Ryan, Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy and Majority Whip Steve Scalise, contributed to the effort to gather enough signatures to put Proposition 6 on the ballot. Now, the party's congressional candidates are making the repeal a focus of their campaigns, particularly in districts where races are tight and long drives are a way of life."

AD ROUNDUP - Another day, another Campaign Pro roundup of 70-plus ads that strike exactly the themes you think they do. Getting on my soapbox for a moment: It really is cruel irony that when I go home to watch TV, I get hit with ads for both Virginia and Maryland races, despite the fact I live in D.C. and can vote for neither (and yes, I understand media markets). One ad from Republican Josh Hawley criticizes Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill in Missouri. "I can give up a few votes in the bootheel," McCaskill says in the ad, which goes on to say she votes against gun rights and agriculture. Today's bonus ad comes from Democratic Rep. Brad Schneider, who is running in the safe blue IL-10. In
 the ad, he's kind of jump-scaring his constituents while talking about the work he does for them. I laughed!

- FIRST IN SCORE - Senate Majority PAC released two new ads hitting Republican Mike Braun on his business record. The first ad features a testimonial saying "Braun is lying about his own company" and that it makes products in China. The second ad strikes a similar tone, saying "Braun can't stop lying about his Chinese imports" and that his "company's website has a button that translates to Chinese" (it also has buttons for Spanish, German, Italian, French and Japanese). Another new ad from SMP targets Republican Sen. Dean Heller in Nevada over health care. "When Donald Trump threatened Dean Heller, he caved," the ad said, before showing Nevadans criticizing him on health care.

- In Florida, the state Republican party and a Democratic super PAC both broke with tradition and ran negative television ads as Hurricane Michael hit the state, POLITICO Florida's Marc Caputo reported.

BALLOT ACCESS - Georgia Secretary of State Brian Kemp, who is running for governor, has held up tens of thousands of voter registration applications. The AP's Ben Nadler: "[M]any people on that list - which is predominantly black, according to an analysis by The Associated Press - may not even know their voter registration has been held up. His Democratic opponent, former state Rep. Stacey Abrams, and voting rights advocacy groups charge that Kemp is systematically using his office to suppress votes and tilt the election, and that his policies disproportionately affect black and minority voters."

- FIRST IN SCORE - NARAL Pro-Choice Georgia, Planned Parenthood Votes and Georgia Equality launched a new $120,000 digital campaign promoting Abrams. The campaign criticizes Kemp on health care, LGBTQ rights and defunding Planned Parenthood and will also promote state Senate candidates.

FOR YOUR LISTENING - Democrat Lauren Underwood talked to my colleague Dan Diamond on POLITICO's "Pulse Check" podcast about her decision to challenge GOP Rep. Randy Hultgren in IL-14 after Hultgren voted to repeal the Affordable Care Act.

2020 WATCH - Because of an earlier primary date, California is becoming a new hotspot for Democratic presidential contenders. From POLITICO's David Siders: "The significance of the calendar change is becoming increasingly apparent, with [Sen. Bernie] Sanders recently scheduling a campaign appearance in an non-competitive House district in Oakland in late October, Joe Biden rallying Democrats in Orange County last week, and Kamala Harris, California's junior senator, likely to conduct a swing through her home state just before Election Day. Numerous other potential candidates have visited privately with donors in the Los Angeles and San Francisco areas."

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "When I got elected - I haven't been to Washington my whole life, very rarely, probably never slept over. All of a sudden, I'm president of the United States," Trump told New York Magazine.

** Presented by AARP: Americans 50 and over are the nation's most powerful voting bloc. In fact, more than 60 million of them voted in 2016-and this year, they're more motivated than ever to making sure that their voices are heard in Washington. 
They're frustrated with broken government. And they're fed up with politicians who'd rather get into fights than get results. The issues they care about most including Medicare, Social Security, support for family caregivers and prescription drug costs, are all on the line. America's 50-plus voters have put the candidates on notice. Anyone who ignores them will feel it on Election Day. aarp.org/vote **
    
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