Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score, presented by Everytown for Gun Safety Action Fund: House Republicans try to hold back Democratic ‘green wave’ — Democrats struggle to excite Latino voters in battleground districts — O’Rourke’s massive fundraising haul
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 15 Oct 2018 08:01:57 -0600
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10/15/2018 10:00 AM EDT
        
By ZACH MONTELLARO ([email-masked]; @ZachMontellaro)

        
Editor's Note: This edition of Free Morning Score is published weekdays at 10 a.m. POLITICO Pro Campaigns subscribers hold exclusive early access to the newsletter each morning at 6 a.m. To learn more about POLITICO Pro's comprehensive policy intelligence coverage, policy tools and services, click here. 
          THE TOPLINES         
'THE GREEN WAVE' - Republicans, who are getting overwhelmed by Democrats' fundraising tsunami in the battle for the House, are making a last-ditch bid for more funds. POLITICO's Alex Isenstadt: The Congressional Leadership Fund's executive director Cory Bliss told a group of lobbyists that "Republicans are facing a 'green wave' and that he's trying to raise another $20 million. That would be in addition to [Sheldon] Adelson's latest contribution. ... The National Republican Congressional Committee is expected to secure a loan to help the party compete in the final weeks. 

"Party officials declined to divulge the size of the credit line, though in previous election years the committee has received loans of between $10 million and $20 million. NRCC Chairman Steve Stivers has also reached out to party leaders, including Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy and Majority Whip Steve Scalise, seeking financial help. ... Still, Republicans have hit roadblocks. House GOP aides had hoped to receive a late cash transfer from the Republican National Committee, but they now don't expect that to happen. The RNC, which is running an extensive national field campaign, has already allocated its remaining funds for the rest of the election season, according to two senior
 Republicans."

BASE PROBLEMS? - Latino voters in key battleground districts are less enthusiastic about voting in the midterms that other demographic groups, worrying Democrats. Campaign Pro's Elena Schneider: "Latinos make up at least 20 percent of the population in more than a dozen districts that top Democrats' House target list in 2018 - more than half of the 23 seats Democrats must flip to take over the House. But a POLITICO analysis of over 20,000 interviews conducted with battleground-district voters by Siena College and The New York Times shows that Latinos rated themselves less likely to vote than both white and black voters. ...

"The problem could be particularly acute in California, where Democrats 'should absolutely be worried about Latinos,' said Paul Mitchell, a nonpartisan data consultant. Latinos comprise at least 20 percent and up to two-thirds of the population in seven contested California seats, making them 'one of the most important factors for Democratic success,' Mitchell added."

Good Monday morning. Fall is in the air - kinda nice, right? As always, email me at [email-masked] or DM me at @ZachMontellaro.

Email the great Campaign Pro team at [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked] and [email-masked]. Follow them on Twitter: @PoliticoScott @ec_schneider, @JamesArkin and @DanielStrauss4.

Days until the 2018 election: 22
          IN THE TRENCHES         
MORE Q3 NUMBERS - Reminder that the FEC filing deadline is tonight! We'll have a lot more numbers to dig through tomorrow. Some notable filings over the weekend: LiUNA Building America, the political arm of the construction workers' union, gave $2 million to Senate Majority PAC - and also kicked $500,000 to Defending Main Street, the Republican super PAC. CHC BOLD PAC, the Congressional Hispanic Caucus' PAC, gave $650,000 to House Majority PAC and $500,000 to SMP. GOP Rep. Kevin Brady transferred $300,000 to both the NRCC and Protect the House, the joint fundraising committee started by Vice President Mike Pence and House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy. Sen. John Barrasso (R-Wyo.)
 transferred $500,000 to the NRSC.

- OH-Sen: Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown raised $3.75 million and has $8.2 million cash on hand.

- TN-Sen: GOP Rep. Marsha Blackburn raised $3.62 million and has over $5 million cash on hand.

- TX-Sen: Democratic Rep. Beto O'Rourke raised $38.1 million (I wrote more about his haul here).

- VA-Sen: Democratic Sen. Tim Kaine raised more than $2.4 million and has over $5 million cash on hand.

- FL-06: Democrat Nancy Soderberg raised over $1 million.

- NY-27: GOP Rep. Chris Collins raised under $33,000, spent $350,000 and has over $1 million on hand, per his FEC filing.

- FIRST IN SCORE - TX-32: Democrat Colin Allred raised $2.3 million.

 - More TX-32: GOP Rep. Pete Sessions raised $1.3 million, spent $555,000 and has $2.6 million cash on hand, per his FEC filing.

- VA-07: Democrat Abigail Spanberger raised just under $3.6 million.

** Presented by Everytown for Gun Safety Action Fund: Every day, gun violence kills 96 Americans, and wounds hundreds more. Everytown is galvanizing Americans to send the NRA - and the politicians in its pocket - a message: Not One More. In November, we'll elect leaders who will put gun safety first. NotOneMore.com **

CRUZ CONTROL - The Sen. Ted Cruz of 2018 has been singing a different song on the campaign trail this year than the one in 2012. Campaign Pro's James Arkin: "Cruz's TV ads have touted his record bringing home billions in federal relief spending after Hurricane Harvey, highlighting 'bipartisan' tax relief for those affected by the storm. Cruz's Texas colleague, Sen. John Cornyn - whom Cruz declined to endorse in 2014 when Cornyn, the No. 2 Republican in the Senate, faced a primary challenge - headlined a six-figure fundraiser for Cruz in Washington. And Cruz has leaned on help from the highest echelons of the Republican Party, campaigning with Vice President Mike Pence and Donald Trump Jr.
 in Texas recently and getting a commitment from President Donald Trump for a future event.

"Cruz remains as conservative as ever, but he sanded down some of the sharp edges on his personality and political strategy in the Senate last year, working within his party on Obamacare repeal and other legislative efforts instead of from the outside as he had in 2013. Now, Cruz's insider connections are powering his effort to return for a second term."

POLITICO is partnering with the Milken Institute to bring a special edition of the POLITICO Pulse newsletter to the Milken Institute Future of Health Summit. Written by Dan Diamond, the newsletter will take readers inside one of the most influential gatherings of global health industry leaders and innovators as they tackle today's most pressing health challenges. The newsletter will run Oct. 23-24. Sign up today to begin receiving exclusive coverage on Day One of the summit.

President Donald Trump says a red wave is coming on Election Day. Is he right, or will the tide turn blue? Compete against the nation's top political minds in the POLITICO Playbook Election Challenge, by correctly picking the winning candidates in some of the most competitive House, Senate and gubernatorial races in the country. Win awesome prizes and eternal bragging rights. Sign up today! Visit politico.com/playbookelectionchallenge to play.

LIST BUILDING - President Donald Trump's extensive supporter list could soon come into play ahead of the midterms. The New York Times' Ken Vogel and Maggie Haberman: "Now, consultants close to the Trump campaign are ramping up efforts to put that database - by far the most sought-after in Republican politics - to use, offering it for rent to candidates, conservative groups and even businesses. It is an arrangement that has the potential to help the Republican Party in key midterm races, while providing a source of revenue for President Trump's campaign and the consultants involved. ... So far, parts of the list have been rented to a number of Republican candidates - including the
 gubernatorial campaign of Ron DeSantis in Florida and the Senate campaign of Josh Hawley in Missouri - as well as nonprofit groups advocating the confirmation of Brett M. Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court".

THE NEW TYPE OF CANDIDATE - Women are jumping into the political fray earlier in their lives. The Wall Street Journal's Janet Hook: "One-fifth of the female Democratic House candidates are under 40. A third of them are women of color. Hundreds more are running for state legislature. The diverse crop of young candidates marks a departure from an older generation of women with ambition who tended to postpone political careers until their families were established. ... Of the 88 candidates Democrats consider top contenders-candidates on the party's 'Red to Blue' list-44 are women, and 10 are women under 40. Ten years ago, the 66-candidate 'Red to Blue' list included 19 women, only one under
 40."

BATTLE OF THE VEEPS - Former Vice President Joe Biden was in Indiana this weekend, rallying the troops for Democratic Sen. Joe Donnelly. James' dispatch from Hammond, Ind.: "Biden peppered his speech here Friday night with red-meat applause lines for the hundreds of enthusiastic Democrats in the crowd: he talked of protecting health care and coverage for pre-existing conditions, gave shout-outs to union and middle-class households and criticized the current administration. ... Biden's visit was a split screen with Vice President Mike Pence, the former governor of Indiana, who was in Indianapolis on Friday to headline the state party's annual dinner ... . 'I have a message for my fellow
 Hoosiers: on behalf of myself, the president and conservatives everywhere, it's time to vote no on Joe Donnelly,' Pence said."

TRIAGE WATCH - California Republican Reps. Dana Rohrabacher and Mimi Walters were left out of a big ad push from the Congressional Leadership Fund. The Los Angeles Times' Michael Finnegan and Mark Z. Barabak: "[T]he fund's opening broadcast ads support only two of the four Republican candidates in the Southland's hardest-fought races: Rep. Steve Knight of Palmdale and Young Kim of Fullerton, relegating its Rohrabacher and Walters ads to cable channels with fewer viewers. Courtney Alexander, the super PAC's communications director, declined to comment on its advertising maneuvers. 'If the election were held today, we believe that both Mimi Walters and Dana Rohrabacher would win their
 reelection,' she said." CLF did report $282,000 in spending in Walters' district on Sunday.

FIRST IN SCORE - ON THE AIRWAVES - CLF is going up with a new ad in TX-07 hitting Democrat Lizzie Pannill Fletcher, tying her to House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi. "Fletcher's agenda is Pelosi's agenda," the ad says, criticizing her on health care and taxes. "That's why Pelosi's committee is spending $2 million to back Lizzie Fletcher's campaign."

- FIRST IN SCORE - Democratic Sen. Bob Casey is going up with a trio of new ads focused on health care. "If [GOP Rep.] Lou Barletta has his way, kids like mine could be denied the care they need," Stacie Ritter, a mother whose twin daughters had cancer, said in one of the ads. A second ad criticized Barletta for taking money from the insurance industry. "For me, it's personal," the narrator of the third ad, a cancer survivor, says while criticizing Barletta on pre-existing conditions.

ELECTION SECURITY - West Virginia will allow military and overseas voters to cast their ballot with a mobile app, which worries some cybersecurity experts. POLITICO's Christian Vasquez: "[T]he app will rely on blockchain, the same buzzy technology that underpins Bitcoin, in yet another Election Day first. 'Especially for people who are serving the country, I think we should find ways to make it easier for them to vote without compromising on the security,' said Nimit Sawhney, co-founder of Voatz, the company that created the app of the same name that West Virginia is using. ... But cybersecurity and election integrity advocates say West Virginia is setting an example of all the things
 states shouldn't do when it comes to securing their elections".

2020 WATCH - Ready for a 2020 Democratic presidential primary national poll? No? Too bad, because CNN is out with one. Former Vice President Joe Biden leads the pack with 33 percent, followed by Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) with 13 percent, Sen. Kamala Harris (D-Calif.) with 9 percent and Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) with 8 percent. The poll was in the field from Oct. 4-7 and surveyed 464 Democrats or independents who lean Democrat.

- She's (probably) running. Warren has been building out a "shadow war room" and has worked with campaigns across the country, in a move that almost mirrors a party committee. The Washington Post's Matt Viser: "Warren's midterm operation is housed in a back office of her Senate reelection headquarters here [in Boston]. Every day, about a half dozen staffers report to work, picking at salads and pecking away on laptops, sending messages to the campaigns around the country to which they are assigned. Whiteboards on the wall list the various races they are tracking, a map shows the places Warren has visited or where staffers were currently based, and there's a list of candidates Warren needs
 to follow up with personally. ... 

"Warren deliberately stayed out of almost every Democratic primary. But shortly after a winner was declared, Warren placed a congratulatory call - something she did for 172 candidates, by her staff's tally - and offered campaign assistance. Someone from her staff was then assigned to the candidate to provide help or solicit requests."

- In other 2020 news, the president asked Ronna McDaniel to stay on for a second term as RNC chief, Axios' Mike Allen reported.

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "I'm a public servant so there wasn't much money in my wallet." - Democrat Greg Stanton, who is running in AZ-09, talking about being robbed over the weekend to the Arizona Republic.

** Presented by Everytown for Gun Safety Action Fund: Americans want stronger, not weaker, gun laws - and elected officials are getting the message. No more school shootings with just "thoughts and prayers." No more preventable tragedies without action. This year, Democratic and Republican candidates are running away from the NRA and its dangerous, out-of-touch agenda.

Everytown is all-in on electing leaders who stand up for our communities by supporting common-sense gun safety measures. We're knocking on doors, making calls, turning out the vote, and spending $30 million to elect leaders who will put our safety first. On November 6, we will demonstrate that the NRA is out of touch - and out of time. NotOneMore.com **
    
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