Subject: POLITICO Playbook: Whose fault will it be?
From: "Anna Palmer Jake Sherman Daniel Lippman" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 17 Oct 2018 04:35:11 -0600
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Presented by Salesforce: Playbook is POLITICO's must-read briefing on what's driving the day in Washington                Oct 17, 2018 View in browser                   
 By Anna Palmer, Jake Sherman and Daniel Lippman 
             
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              DRIVING THE DAY      
WHEN WE ASK OUR REPUBLICAN SOURCES for predictions about what will happen if they lose the majority, many of them first scoff, and say they are still holding out hope in Hillary Clinton-won districts -- many races are within the margin of error, they say, and their base voters are energized after the Kavanaugh hearings. And how about educated women, we ask, many of whom were turned off by the confirmation process? Well, there's lots of noise, they say, so people forget.

BUT IF YOU CAN GET ELECTED REPUBLICANS and their aides to focus on losing the House, and ask them how their "vanguards" -- safe Republican members -- will react to losing the chamber, you'll get a shoulder shrug. Many will say it was because the leadership didn't support Trump enough. Others will say the party supported him too much, and didn't stand up to him when they should've. 

MANY WILL say it was because they did nothing on health care. Others will say they lost because of immigration -- the right will say because they didn't fight to build the wall, and there will be those who say the GOP needed to cut a middle-of-the-road immigration deal. Then a whole bunch of people will say it was because Republicans were swamped by Democratic cash from Mike Bloomberg and Tom Steyer. This kind of mess will seep into governing, and decision making.

TRUMP SAYS: IT'S WON'T BE MY FAULT! ... AP'S CATHERINE LUCEY, JONATHAN LEMIRE and ZEKE MILLER: "Facing the prospect of bruising electoral defeat in congressional elections, President Donald Trump said Tuesday that he won't accept the blame if his party loses control of the House in November, arguing his campaigning and endorsements have helped Republican candidates.

"In a wide-ranging interview three weeks before Election Day, Trump told The Associated Press he senses voter enthusiasm rivaling 2016 and he expressed cautious optimism that his most loyal supporters will vote even when he is not on the ballot. He dismissed suggestions that he might take responsibility, as his predecessor did, for midterm losses or view the outcome as a referendum on his presidency.

"'No, I think I'm helping people,' Trump said. 'I don't believe anybody's ever had this kind of an impact.'" AP ... The transcript of the entire interview

GOT IT! Good Wednesday morning. 20 DAYS until Election Day. NANCY PELOSI on PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP'S desire for a border wall (via WaPo's Mike DeBonis): "'It's immoral, expensive, ineffective and not something people do between countries,' she said. 'In any event, it happens to be like a manhood issue for the president, and I'm not interested in that.'"

MORE FROM THE AP'S TRUMP INTERVIEW: "Trump spoke on a range of subjects, defending Saudi Arabia from growing condemnation over the case of a missing journalist, accusing his longtime attorney Michael Cohen of lying under oath and flashing defiance when asked about the insult - 'Horseface' - he hurled at Stormy Daniels, the porn actress who accuses him of lying about an affair.

"Asked if it was appropriate to insult a woman's appearance, Trump responded, 'You can take it any way you want.' Throughout much of the nearly 40-minute interview, he sat, arms crossed, in the Oval Office behind the Resolute Desk, flanked by top aides, including White House press secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders and communications director Bill Shine. White House counselor Kellyanne Conway listened from a nearby sofa.

"The interview came as Trump's administration was being urged to pressure Saudi Arabia to account for the disappearance of journalist Jamal Khashoggi. Instead, Trump offered a defense for the U.S. ally, warning against a rush to judgment, like with what happened with his Supreme Court nominee, Brett Kavanaugh, who was accused of sexual assault.

"'Well, I think we have to find out what happened first,' Trump said. 'Here we go again with, you know, you're guilty until proven innocent. I don't like that. We just went through that with Justice Kavanaugh. And he was innocent all the way.'"

WASHINGTON POST'S JOHN HUDSON (@john_hudson): "Q&A with Pompeo after his meetings with Saudi officials: Q: Did they say if Khashoggi is alive or dead? Pompeo: 'I don't want to talk about any of the facts; they didn't want to, either' via pool."

CBS'S ERROL BARNETT (@errolbarnett): "Meanwhile: Ivanka Trump and Jared Kushner are on my flight from DC to NY, ushered on board by the secret service. If they answer any of my Q's, I'll let you know... Jared Kushner did not answer my question and the secret service informs me, while obscuring my phone, that despite identifying as WH press, there is a 'time and a place' for questions. It is unclear when and where that is." Video
       
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THE MIDTERMS ... 

-- SIREN: "'We're getting our asses kicked': Republicans massively out-raised in election homestretch," by Elena Schneider: "Democratic challengers outraised Republican House incumbents in 92 House districts in the last three months - a staggering mismatch that boosts the odds of a GOP washout in November.

"There is no historical precedent for financing this broad and deep for congressional challengers. About half of the 92 GOP incumbents are protecting battleground districts, and some of them posted personal-record fundraising totals in the third quarter of 2018 - but they still found themselves swamped by a combination of incandescent online fundraising for Democrats and bigger donors spreading money to challengers around the country, as 61 Democrats raised over $1 million. 

"Fifty-one House Republicans were outraised at least 2-to-1, according to POLITICO's analysis of the latest [FEC] filings, while 71 were outspent by their challenger. Only five Democratic House incumbents were outraised. Meanwhile, 33 GOP representatives have less cash on hand than their Democratic challengers, while no Democratic members lag their Republican opponents in cash. 

"That cash on hand gap has been a particularly dire historical indicator: In the last four elections, two-thirds of the House incumbents who ended September with less cash to spend than their opponents lost their seats weeks later." POLITICO

-- OOPS: "Heitkamp apologizes for ad that mistakenly identified some women as abuse survivors; misidentified others," by ABC News' Mariam Khan: "North Dakota Democrat Sen. Heidi Heitkamp is apologizing after a newspaper ad released by her campaign used the names of sexual assault survivors who did not give permission for their information to be used and incorrectly identified others. Heitkamp, who is facing a tough re-election bid in a state President Trump won by 36 points in the 2016 presidential election, said in a statement she recently learned that several women named in the ad hadn't authorized it or are not survivors of abuse." ABC News

-- "Suburban Women Are Fed Up With The Republican Party And Could Drive A Blue Wave," by BuzzFeed's Molly Hensley-Clancy: "Once reliably Republican-voting, college-educated white women - who make up a large portion of women voters in the suburbs - flipped from Mitt Romney to Hillary Clinton in 2016 by a narrow 6-point margin. That gap is now a chasm. In a poll of 59 battleground House races nationwide, college-educated white women now favor Democrats over Republicans by nearly 30 points." BuzzFeed

-- TEXAS TRIBUNE'S PATRICK SVITEK and MATT ZDUN in San Antonio: "Beto O'Rourke swings harder at Ted Cruz in second debate": "Over the hourlong event, the El Paso congressman took a series of harsher-than-usual swings at Cruz - including a couple of blows evocative of the senator's battle with Donald Trump in the 2016 presidential race.

"'He's dishonest,' O'Rourke said of Cruz at one point. 'That's why the president called him Lyin' Ted and it's why the nickname stuck because it's true.' ... Early on, O'Rourke accused Cruz of not being able to stand up to the president for Texans, while Cruz went on to dismiss the idea O'Rourke would be able to work with the president after expressing support for his impeachment. And 'Lyin' Ted' was not the only Trump-style insult aired in the debate, with O'Rourke telling Cruz multiple times that he was 'all talk and no action.'" Texas Trib

MARC CAPUTO, "Hurricane aftermath threatens to unleash Florida election chaos": "As tens of thousands of voters in Florida's storm-tossed Panhandle try to recover from the devastation of Hurricane Michael, their communities are grappling with yet another problem - an election season thrown into disarray. With power out in many areas and phone lines down, it's still not clear how many voters across the state have been affected. Nor is it clear which voter precincts were damaged, or what exactly the state should do to make voting easier for survivors and the displaced. 

"Then there are the more crass political considerations. The state's Senate and gubernatorial races are virtually tied at the moment - and 8 of the 11 counties without power, an area affecting 135,000 customers, are Republican-performing counties." POLITICO

SCOOP -- "State Department spokeswoman Nauert in the mix for U.N. ambassador," by Eliana Johnson: "Outgoing United Nations ambassador Nikki Haley made clear her value as an advocate for the administration on television-and the White House is looking for somebody telegenic to replace her. Among the candidates President Donald Trump is considering, according to three people close to the president: former Fox News host Heather Nauert, who currently serves as the State Department's spokeswoman and acting Under Secretary for Public Diplomacy and Public Affairs." POLITICO

WHAT'S ON PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP'S MIND -- @realDonaldTrump at 9:19 p.m.: "We have today informed the countries of Honduras, Guatemala and El Salvador that if they allow their citizens, or others, to journey through their borders and up to the United States, with the intention of entering our country illegally, all payments made to them will STOP (END)!"

... at 9:24 p.m.: "Anybody entering the United States illegally will be arrested and detained, prior to being sent back to their country!"

... at 10:36 p.m.: "Elizabeth Warren is being hammered, even by the Left. Her false claim of Indian heritage is only selling to VERY LOW I.Q. individuals!"

THE LATEST ON KHASHOGGI ... 

-- THE GORY BACKSTORY: "Turkey Details Alleged Killing of Saudi Journalist," by WSJ's David Gauthier-Villars, Jessica Donati and Summer Said in Istanbul: "Saudi operatives beat, drugged, killed and dismembered a dissident Saudi journalist in the presence of the kingdom's top diplomat in Istanbul, Turkish officials said Tuesday, as Washington urged Riyadh to provide answers. ... 

"Turkish officials said they shared evidence in recent days, including the details of an audio recording, with both the U.S. and Saudi Arabia to support their conclusion that Mr. Khashoggi was killed at the hand of Saudi operatives. It wasn't clear how Turkish officials had an audio recording. The recording indicates how Mr. Khashoggi was killed in the office of the Saudi consul general, Mohammad al-Otaibi, minutes after he walked into the consulate building on Oct. 2, said people familiar with the matter.

"Mr. Khashoggi wasn't interrogated, the people said. Instead, he was beaten up, drugged and killed by Saudi operatives who had flown in from Riyadh earlier in the day ... Then, on the recording, a voice can be heard inviting the consul to leave the room ... The voice of a man Turkish authorities identified as Saudi forensic specialist Salah Al Tabiqi can be heard recommending other people present to listen to some music while he dismembered Mr. Khashoggi's body ...

"Turkish investigators spent nine hours searching for clues inside the Saudi diplomatic premises on Monday and early Tuesday. Complicating the search, said Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, was the fact that some rooms had been freshly repainted." WSJ

-- A FRIEND OF A FRIEND OF JARED'S ... NYT's David D. Kirkpatrick, Malachy Browne, Ben Hubbard and David Botti in Istanbul: "One of the suspects identified by Turkey in the disappearance of the Saudi dissident Jamal Khashoggi was a frequent companion of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman - seen disembarking from airplanes with him in Paris and Madrid and photographed standing guard during his visits this year to Houston, Boston and the United Nations.

"Three others are linked by witnesses and other records to the Saudi crown prince's security detail. A fifth is a forensic doctor who holds senior positions in the Saudi Interior Ministry and medical establishment, a figure of such stature that he could be directed only by a high-ranking Saudi authority.

"If, as the Turkish authorities say, these men were present at the Saudi Consulate in Istanbul where Mr. Khashoggi disappeared on Oct. 2, they might provide a direct link between what happened and Prince Mohammed. That would undercut any suggestion that Mr. Khashoggi died in a rogue operation unsanctioned by the crown prince. Their connection to him could also make it more difficult for the White House and Congress to accept such an explanation." NYT ... Photo of a suspect with MBS nearby, from the NYT 

-- AP'S SUZAN FRASER in Ankara and JON GAMBRELL in Dubai: "Pompeo lands in Turkey as probe into Khashoggi case heats up": "The Yeni Safak report cited what it described as an audio recording of Khashoggi's slaying, which it said showed the writer was tortured. The newspaper said Saudi Consul General Mohammed al-Otaibi could be heard on the tape, telling those allegedly torturing Khashoggi: 'Do this outside; you're going to get me in trouble.'

"The newspaper said one of the Saudis torturing Khashoggi replied: 'Shut up if you want to live when you return to (Saudi) Arabia.' ... Al-Otaibi left Turkey on Tuesday afternoon." AP

-- THE IMPACT ... "Khashoggi Disappearance May Disrupt Trump Administration's Plans to Squeeze Iran," by NYT's David E. Sanger: "Officials said the dilemma comes at a fraught moment for the Trump administration, which is expected to reimpose harsh sanctions against Iran on Nov. 5, with the intent of cutting off all Iranian oil exports.

"But to make the strategy work, the administration is counting on its relationship with the Saudis to keep global oil flowing without spiking prices, and to work together on a new policy to contain Iran in the Persian Gulf." NYT

-- THEO MEYER: "Washington Post told lobbyist: Quit working for Saudis or stop writing for us": "The Washington Post told a prominent Republican lobbyist he'd lose his gig as a contributing opinion writer unless he stopped lobbying for Saudi Arabia, a spokesperson for the newspaper confirmed Tuesday. ...

"The lobbyist, Ed Rogers, the chairman of the BGR Group, writes for the newspaper's PostPartisan blog. Kristine Coratti Kelly, a spokeswoman for the Post, confirmed that the newspaper told Rogers he'd no longer be able to contribute if he continued to lobby for Saudi Arabia. She declined to comment further." POLITICO

-- THEO MEYER, LORRAINE WOELLERT and MARIANNE LEVINE: "Diplomatic crisis spotlights Saudi Arabia's spending in Washington"

2020 WATCH -- DAVID SIDERS: "Harris advisers plot 2020 strategy: 'The SEC primary meets the West Coast offense'": "Sen. Kamala Harris' advisers are privately discussing a rough Democratic primary strategy that would focus heavily on Iowa, but with an eye toward high-value nominating contests coming later in Nevada, South Carolina and California - more diverse states where her candidacy might resonate with larger minority communities.

"Harris, a first-term senator, would still face significant obstacles in each of those states. But as a black woman who has also won statewide elections in California - where the black proportion of the electorate is relatively small - Harris could be well positioned to compete in both the Southeast and the West.

"If she runs, she will attempt to stitch together a coalition of Democrats in those swaths of the country - what one adviser described to POLITICO as 'the SEC primary meets the West Coast offense.'" POLITICO

AT THE COURT ... "Roberts vows independence following Kavanaugh nomination fight," by Josh Gerstein: "Chief Justice John Roberts is vowing to keep the Supreme Court out of the political fray despite the intense and divisive fight over the nomination of the court's newest member, Justice Brett Kavanaugh.

"At the outset of an appearance at the University of Minnesota on Tuesday, Roberts said he wanted to make some comments prompted by what he euphemistically called 'the contentious events in Washington in recent weeks.' 'I will not criticize the political branches. We do that often enough in our opinions,' the chief justice said. 'What I would like to do is emphasize how the judicial branch is and must be very different.'" POLITICO

THE INVESTIGATIONS -- "Mueller ready to deliver key findings in his Trump probe, sources say," by Bloomberg's Chris Strohm, Greg Farrell and Shannon Pettypiece: "Special Counsel Robert Mueller is expected to issue findings on core aspects of his Russia probe soon after the November midterm elections as he faces intensifying pressure to produce more indictments or shut down his investigation, according to two U.S. officials.

 "Specifically, Mueller is close to rendering judgement on two of the most explosive aspects of his inquiry: whether there were clear incidents of collusion between Russia and Donald Trump's 2016 campaign, and whether the president took any actions that constitute obstruction of justice, according to one of the officials, who asked not to be identified speaking about the investigation.

 "That doesn't necessarily mean Mueller's findings would be made public if he doesn't secure unsealed indictments. The regulations governing Mueller's probe stipulate that he can present his findings only to his boss, who is currently Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein. The regulations give a special counsel's supervisor some discretion in deciding what is relayed to Congress and what is publicly released." Bloomberg

WHAT THE ... "Senior FBI official improperly accepted gifts from reporter - report," by Reuters' Sarah N. Lynch: "An unnamed senior official at the FBI improperly accepted tickets to professional sporting events from a reporter and later misled investigators when confronted about it, the Justice Department's internal watchdog said on Tuesday. 

"The FBI official, who resigned from the agency during the probe, initially told the inspector general's office under oath that the official had paid for the tickets, but later admitted that was not so. The reporter who gave the tickets to the FBI official is a television news correspondent who covers the Justice Department and the FBI." Reuters
       
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TRUMP'S WEDNESDAY -- The president is meeting with workers on "Cutting the Red Tape, Unleashing Economic Freedom" in the Oval Office at 11 a.m. At 11:30 p.m., Trump will host a cabinet meeting. The president will also present the medal of honor in the East Room at 4 p.m.

SIGN UP FOR THE PLAYBOOK ELECTION CHALLENGE -- Pick who will win the most hotly contested House, Senate and gubernatorial races across the country. The challenge

JOIN US! ANNA and JAKE are heading out to Philadelphia for our last Playbook Elections event Oct. 29 at the Ritz Carlton. We'll be talking with REPS. BRENDAN BOYLE (D-PA.) and RYAN COSTELLO (R-PA.) about what's happening on the ground in Pennsylvania and across the country in the lead-up to the election. Doors open at 8 a.m. RSVP
                 PLAYBOOK READS         

PHOTO DU JOUR: Rep. Beto O'Rourke (D-Texas) came out swinging against incumbent Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) in a debate Tuesday night. | Tom Reel/San Antonio Express-News via AP, Pool
   
RACHAEL BADE: "The other spending war: Appropriations race gets ugly"

SPORTS BLINK ... FORMER CONGRESSWOMAN ALERT ... "USA Gymnastics Interim CEO Mary Bono Resigns," by WSJ's Rachel Bachman: "Four days after being named interim president and CEO of the embattled USA Gymnastics federation, Mary Bono resigned after a recent tweet surfaced in which she criticized U.S. Olympic Committee sponsor Nike. Ms. Bono's tweet showed someone blacking out the Nike swoosh on a pair of shoes, and appeared days after the shoe company launched an ad campaign featuring football player Colin Kaepernick." WSJ

         
THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION -- "HUD political appointee to lead probes of Zinke," by Ben Lefebvre: "A political appointee from the Department of Housing and Urban Development is replacing the Interior Department's top internal watchdog, according to an email from HUD Secretary Ben Carson - an unusual arrangement that has ethics watchdogs worried about the fate of several investigations into Interior Secretary Ryan Zinke.

"Suzanne Israel Tufts, now HUD's assistant secretary for administration, will become Interior's acting inspector general, Carson announced in a Friday email obtained by POLITICO. Interior's IG office has until now been helmed by Deputy Inspector General Mary Kendall, who has led probes of Zinke and his wife as well as accusations that the secretary censored climate change reports." POLITICO

VALLEY TALK -- "Uber Proposals Value Company at $120 Billion in a Possible IPO," by WSJ's Liz Hoffman, Greg Bensinger and Maureen Farrell: "Uber Technologies Inc. recently received proposals from Wall Street banks valuing the ride-hailing company at as much as $120 billion in an initial public offering that could take place early next year, according to people familiar with the matter. That eye-popping figure is nearly double Uber's valuation in a fundraising round two months ago and more than General Motors Co., Ford Motor Co. and Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV are worth combined." WSJ
                 PLAYBOOKERS      
SPOTTED: Barry Switzer having dinner last night at the Trump Hotel BLT. Pic ... Gabby Giffords and her husband yesterday at LAX.

OUT AND ABOUT -- Forbes Tate hosted more than 300 people at their office to spend time with the Stanley Cup. Pic SPOTTED: Nick Lewis, Kim Davis, Kelley Williams, Jessica Hogle, Jason Mahler, Ed Hill, Henry Ristuccia, Rob Hall, Dave Oxner, Rob Wooley, Lori Riley, Anne Holmes, Don Calloway, Shannon Clark, Laura McPherson, Anne Devlin, Lindsey Dickinson and Stacey Sprinkle. 

-- SPOTTED at Bobby Van's last night for a party hosted by Ron Bonjean and ROKK Solutions to celebrate the release of Fox News' Chris Stirewalt's new book, "Every Man a King: A Short Colorful History of America's Populists" ($18.30 on Amazon): Interior Secretary Ryan Zinke, Bill Sammon, Shannon and Sheldon Bream, Leland Vittert, Marie Harf, Matt Continetti, Stephen Hayes, Charlie Hurt, Jonah Goldberg, Antonia Ferrier, Mike Dubke, Matt Gorman, Jesse Hunt, Liz Johnson, Doug Heye, Caitlin Carroll, Brad Dayspring, Brad Rateike, Tyler Ross, former Rep. Robert Hurt, Artur Orkisz, Matt Lloyd, Sara Bonjean, Katy Summerlin, Matt Wolking, Mark Paustenbach, Charlie Spies, Eliana Johnson, Alex Conant,
 Alex Finland, Paul Kane and Dan Ronayne.

BIRTHWEEK (was Monday): Casey Harper of Definers Public Affairs (hat tip: Colin Reed)

BIRTHDAY OF THE DAY: Julie Rovner, chief Washington correspondent at Kaiser Health News. How she got her start in journalism: "I got my start in journalism at my mom's knee - she worked for the Washington Post for 25 years and I grew up in the newsroom. I cut my journalism teeth at the Michigan Daily, Legal Times, and CQ." Playbook Plus Q&A

BIRTHDAYS: Maria Trabocchi ... former North Carolina Gov. Pat McCrory is 62 ... Michael Beckerman, president and CEO of the Internet Association ... Bloomberg LP Chairman Peter Grauer is 73 ... POLITICO's Angela Greiling Keane and Martin Matishak ... Marcus Gadson ... Sen. Martin Heinrich (D-N.M.) is 47 ... Rep. Cheri Bustos (D-Ill.) is 57 ... Rep. Gene Green (D-Tex.) is 71 ... former Rep. Virgil Goode (R-Va.) is 72 ... Rep. Mike Quigley (D-Ill.) is 6-0 ... William Haseltine ... Sean Harrison ... Bo Erickson, a CBS News Capitol Hill producer (h/t Mary Hager) ... Clay Robinson (h/t Claude Marx) ... Colleen King (h/t Tim Burger) ... Jared Edy ... Ken Baer, founder of Crosscut Strategies and
 co-founder of Democracy Journal ... Morgan O'Brien of the State Department and a Tar Heels fan (h/ts Ben Chang) ... 

... MSNBC's Rob Rivas ... Briggs DeLoach ... John Monsif, VP of gov't relations at First Focus (h/t Jon Haber) ... Adrienne Petz ... Rich Thomas, partner at Monument Policy Group ... Adam Greenspan of NGP VAN ... Katey McGettrick ... Clay Robinson ... Robert Schwartz ... Jethro Ward ... Diana Gourlay Hamilton ... Pikria Saliashvili ... Bill Steiger ... Alex Youn ... Matthew Hennessy, managing partner at Tremont Public Advisors ... Jacquie Brown ... Scott McCabe ... Google's Michael Shayan and Sean Harrison ... Chicago movie critic Richard Roeper is 59 ... Scott Darling ... Fred Yang
       
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