Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score, presented by Everytown for Gun Safety Action Fund: How McConnell’s comments will shape the last 3 weeks — 5 gubernatorial races shift in POLITICO’s race ratings — Romney goes national
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
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Date: Thu, 18 Oct 2018 08:03:59 -0600
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10/18/2018 10:00 AM EDT
        
By ZACH MONTELLARO ([email-masked]; @ZachMontellaro)

        
Editor's Note: This edition of Free Morning Score is published weekdays at 10 a.m. POLITICO Pro Campaigns subscribers hold exclusive early access to the newsletter each morning at 6 a.m. To learn more about POLITICO Pro's comprehensive policy intelligence coverage, policy tools and services, click here. 
          THE TOPLINES         
A TALE OF TWO MCCONNELLS - Take a look at recent comments from Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell to see how both parties will focus their messaging as we close out the battle for the Senate. 

The themes Senate Republicans will highlight shone through in an op-ed McConnell wrote on Wednesday for The Washington Post, saying he's proud of the vote to confirm Brett Kavanaugh, "whose commitment to the Constitution and the rule of law is exactly what the American people deserve on their Supreme Court."

The Supreme Court has popped up in recent Republican ads across the country. The NRSC has gone up with ads hitting vulnerable Democrats on the vote, which followed a brutal confirmation fight. "Even when the time came to confirm Justice Brett Kavanaugh, Joe voted no," Vice President Mike Pence said in a direct-to-camera ad hitting Sen. Joe Donnelly in Indiana. "Jon Tester voted against Montana" on the Supreme Court, a second Senate ad declares. In the past week, other ads in Missouri, Tennessee and more have mentioned the Supreme Court fight.

And that carries on past the Supreme Court to the judiciary at large. POLITICO's Burgess Everett and Elana Schor: "For Republicans, there's nothing that matters more. They aren't pitching a big visionary agenda to persuade voters to return them to power next year - there's only passing mention in the midterms of repealing Obamacare, and little talk of making Trump's border wall a reality. It's all about the judiciary. ...

"'I love the tax bill and a lot of the other things we did. But I think lifetime appointments - not only to the Supreme Court but to the circuit courts - are the way you have the longest lasting impact on the country,' McConnell said in an interview this month."

Meanwhile, Democrats are homing in on McConnell's comments on (you guessed it) health care. Expect this Reuters headline to make an appearance on the campaign trail: "McConnell says Senate Republicans might revisit Obamacare repeal".

"If we had the votes to completely start over, we'd do it," the majority leader said to Reuters' David Morgan. "But that depends on what happens in a couple weeks ... We're not satisfied with the way Obamacare is working." Also drawing Democrats' ire are comments McConnell has repeated in the past couple days on entitlement programs like Social Security and Medicare, saying they "the real driver of the debt" and should be reformed. Democrats argue this is setting the table for cuts (McConnell said repeatedly that overhauling entitlement programs would need to be a bipartisan push).

"Make no mistake: Republican Senators and Senate candidates have made their priorities clear: a vote for them is a vote against your health care, your Social Security and your Medicare," DSCC comms director Lauren Passalacqua said in a statement.

Good Thursday morning. Another big datapoint: Congressional Democratic candidates have raised more than $1 billion, a new record for a single party in a cycle via The Washington Post's Michelle Ye Hee Lee and Anu Narayanswamy. As always, email me at [email-masked] or DM me at @ZachMontellaro.

Email the great Campaign Pro team at [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked] and [email-masked]. Follow them on Twitter: @PoliticoScott @ec_schneider, @JamesArkin and @DanielStrauss4.

Days until the 2018 election: 19

** Presented by Everytown for Gun Safety Action Fund: Every day, gun violence kills 96 Americans, and wounds hundreds more. Everytown is galvanizing Americans to send the NRA - and the politicians in its pocket - a message: Not One More. In November, we'll elect leaders who will put gun safety first. NotOneMore.com **

POLITICO IS PARTNERING WITH THE MILKEN INSTITUTE to bring a special edition of the POLITICO Pulse newsletter to the Milken Institute Future of Health Summit. Written by Dan Diamond, the newsletter will take readers inside one of the most influential gatherings of global health industry leaders and innovators as they tackle today's most pressing health challenges. The newsletter will run Oct. 23-24. Sign up today to begin receiving exclusive coverage on Day One of the summit. 

YOUR 2018 MIDTERMS HQ: The countdown is on. Policy professionals know the 2018 midterms represent more than keeping track of winners and losers. The outcome of high-stakes contests could dramatically alter the course of policymaking across the country. Go beyond election night with POLITICO Pro's 2018 Midterms HQ. Read more.
          IN THE TRENCHES         
RACE RATINGS CHANGE - POLITICO's Steve Shepard is out with his update to POLITICO's race ratings, shifting five gubernatorial races. South Dakota is the sole race to become more competitive, moving from likely Republican to lean Republican. Steve shifted four other races closer to one party or another: Arizona went from lean to likely Republican, Idaho went from likely to solid Republican, Michigan went from lean to likely Democratic and Hawaii went from likely to solid Democratic. You can check out his detailed breakdown here.

ROMNEY GOES NATIONAL - Mitt Romney will almost assuredly be the next junior senator from the state of Utah. But he already has a much higher profile than any freshman senator-to-be. POLITICO's Alex Isenstadt: "After spending most of the past year quietly tending to his own race, Romney is using his formidable national profile and expansive political network to elect embattled Republicans across the country. Weeks before his virtually assured election to the Senate, the 2012 Republican standard-bearer is issuing endorsements, appearing in TV ads and fundraising for hopefuls up and down the ballot. ...

"With Democrats flooding congressional races with cash, Romney, who remains close with many Republican givers, has worked to motivate GOP financiers who the party is relying on to level the playing field. In late August, he made an appearance at a donor retreat in Jackson Hole, Wyo., hosted by House Speaker Paul Ryan. Much of Romney's focus, though, has been on electing candidates running at the state level in Utah."

ON THE AIRWAVES - Democratic Rep. Beto O'Rourke's latest television ads criticized Texas Republican Sen. Ted Cruz directly, a change in tone. Campaign Pro's James Arkin: "O'Rourke's new ads are all direct-to-camera appeals from the Democrat, highlighting issue contrasts with Cruz in three areas: health care, education and immigration. They aren't typical attack ad fare replete with grainy footage of Cruz or narrator voice-overs - but each of them directly attacks Cruz's policies. 'Ted Cruz has voted to take away health care from millions of American families. He's tried repeatedly to roll back protections for pre-existing conditions,' O'Rourke said in one ad."

POLLS POLLS POLLS - In New Jersey, Democratic Sen. Bob Menendez has a comfortable lead over Republican Bob Hugin. In a poll from Quinnipiac University, Menendez leads 51 percent to 44 percent. The poll surveyed 873 likely voters from Oct. 10-16.

FLUSH WITH CASH - Democrats, fresh off their massive quarterly reports, are still poised to raise piles of money - pushing their campaigns into hyperdrive with less than three weeks to go. The Wall Street Journal's Julie Bykowicz: Kentucky 6th's Amy McGrath, "whose campaign says it raised almost $1 million in the first 15 days of October, is one of dozens of Democratic candidates who seem to be minting money ... 'What this allows us to do is to step up our game in every way,' [McGrath campaign manager Mark Nickolas] said, noting the campaign has offices in all 19 counties in the district and its headquarters. 'We don't have to choose between A or B. We can do both. My field team came to me
 with their bronze, silver and gold requests for how to spend money getting out the vote. It's easy to say yes to the gold plan.'"

HEITKAMP FALLOUT - An unnamed campaign staffer for Sen. Heidi Heitkamp resigned after an ad named several women as sexual assault victims without their permission. More from James: "Julia Kreiger, a spokeswoman for Heitkamp's campaign, confirmed the senator requested and received the resignation of a campaign staff member following the mistake. ... The senator declined on [a] radio show to name anyone from the campaign who was involved in the ad, and she said she took personal responsibility for the incident."

FIRED - A staffer for American Bridge has been fired after he was arrested in Las Vegas for allegedly attacking Republican gubernatorial nominee Adam Laxalt's campaign manager. Campaign Pro's Daniel Strauss: "Kristin Davison, Laxalt's campaign manager, told police that Mike Stark, the activist, hurt her as he tried to question Laxalt at an event at the East Las Vegas Community Center. In a statement to police that was provided to POLITICO by Laxalt's campaign, Davison said Stark 'physically pushed his body on me multiple times. I asked him to stop and to back away and he did not.' American Bridge said in a statement on Wednesday that Stark had been fired."

RED TO BLUE ADDS - The DCCC added a handful of candidates to its Red to Blue program, its top battleground targets list: Alyse Galvin (AK-AL), Hiral Tipirneni (AZ-08), Mel Hall (IN-02), Tedra Cobb (NY-21), Nate McMurray (NY-27), Jana Lynne Sanchez (TX-06), Sri Preston Kulkarni (TX-22) and Leslie Cockburn (VA-05).

AD ROUNDUP - The whole campaign team rounded up the 50-plus ads published Wednesday, all here. In news that will not shock you, many of them focused on health care. Today's bonus ad: A digital ad from the Montana Democratic party featuring ... puppies!

WITH FRIENDS LIKE THESE - Democrat Donna Shalala, who is running in a tight race in FL-27 even though Democrats expected it to be an easy pickup, stumbled by choosing the wrong guest for a campaign event. POLITICO Florida's Marc Caputo: "There's a simple rule in running for Congress in Miami: Don't campaign with someone who praised Fidel Castro and fought sanctions against Venezuela's dictatorial regime. But Donna Shalala didn't figure it out until it was too late."

Her campaign posted "an announcement that she would hold a campaign event Wednesday with House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi and her fellow Californian, Rep. Barbara Lee. In 2016, Lee had said Castro's death should be mourned. Lee's visit was ultimately canceled, but not before Shalala was savaged in a debate by her Republican opponent."

FIELD WORK - A broad coalition is working overtime to push Democrats to the polls. The AP's Juana Summers: "They're asking pastors to text their congregants about the importance of voting. They're connecting with thousands of Puerto Ricans displaced by Hurricane Maria. And they're relying on groups like the NAACP, which has tripled its spending from 2016 to energize black voters. Less than three weeks before Election Day, Democrats are sparing nothing to make sure their voters head to the polls."

- The RNC is touting its strong field program, too. It says it has made 52 million volunteer-to-voter contacts this cycle, and 4 million within the past week.

MURKY DISCLOSURE - Online platforms often allow political advertisers to offer up murky or incomplete disclosures on who is actually paying for an ad, as exemplified with a Facebook page targeting Virginia's 10th District. The New York Times' Kevin Roose: "The ads, which appeared on a Facebook page called 'Wacky Wexton Not,' were purchased by a critic of Jennifer Wexton, a Democrat trying to unseat Representative Barbara Comstock, a Republican. ... The person or group behind the ads is known to Facebook, but a mystery to the public. The funding disclaimer attached to the ads reads, simply, 'Paid for by a freedom loving American Citizen exercising my natural law right, protected by the 1st
 Amendment and protected by the 2nd Amendment.' There is no other identifying information on the page." Comstock's campaign denied any involvement with the page "in any way, shape or form."

CAMPAIGN IN-FIGHTING - A group of campaign workers for Democrat J.B. Pritzker, who is running against Illinois Republican Gov. Bruce Rauner, filed a lawsuit alleging racial discrimination. The Chicago Tribune's Mike Riopell and Rick Pearson: "The lawsuit filed Tuesday alleges that African-American and Latino campaign staffers 'are herded into race-specific positions where they are expected to interact with the public, offered no meaningful chance for advancement, and receive less favorable treatment than their white counterparts.' Of the 10 campaign staffers named as plaintiffs in the suit, nine are black and one is a Latina. ... 'To be clear, this is just not true,' Pritzker said in a
 statement."

FIRST IN SCORE - ENDORSEMENT CORNER - The pro-gun control group Giffords, co-founded by former Rep. Gabrielle Giffords, endorsed Democratic Rep. Tim Walz's bid for Minnesota governor. "He understands what it means to stand up for the Second Amendment while fighting to keep Minnesotan families safe," the former congresswoman said in a statement. "He will support life-saving policies like stronger background checks, gun violence restraining orders, and keeping guns out of the hands of dangerous individuals"

2020 WATCH - Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) is routinely mentioned as a top tier presidential contender. But if he chooses to run again, he has one major immediate roadblock: some of his staffers have moved on. POLITICO's Alex Thompson: "Many of them are looking for a different progressive champion to finish what Sanders started, according to interviews with more than a dozen former Sanders staffers. ... 'I've had a few people reach out and be like, 'How do I reach out to Warren?' said one former Sanders staffer. 'Some of the Sanders stalwarts, not just staff but high-profile supporters, aren't necessarily in the bag for 2020.'"

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "I was proud of myself - and then she pulls in $2.6 million, and it blows your doors off, because you just can't believe that anybody could find that much money," GOP Rep. Mike Bishop talking about his Democratic challenger Elissa Slotkin's fundraising haul to the Washington Examiner.

** Presented by Everytown for Gun Safety Action Fund: Americans want stronger, not weaker, gun laws - and elected officials are getting the message. No more school shootings with just "thoughts and prayers." No more preventable tragedies without action. This year, Democratic and Republican candidates are running away from the NRA and its dangerous, out-of-touch agenda.

Everytown is all-in on electing leaders who stand up for our communities by supporting common-sense gun safety measures. We're knocking on doors, making calls, turning out the vote, and spending $30 million to elect leaders who will put our safety first. On November 6, we will demonstrate that the NRA is out of touch - and out of time. NotOneMore.com **
    
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