Subject: POLITICO Playbook: What if Republicans hold on
From: "Anna Palmer Jake Sherman Daniel Lippman" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 19 Oct 2018 04:22:08 -0600
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Presented by Salesforce: Playbook is POLITICO's must-read briefing on what's driving the day in Washington                Oct 19, 2018 View in browser                   
 By Anna Palmer, Jake Sherman and Daniel Lippman 
             
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              DRIVING THE DAY      
WHAT IF REPUBLICANS HOLD ON? ... RACHAEL BADE: "How Republicans could (barely) hang on to the House: Unlikely? Definitely. Impossible? No": "House Republicans - and privately, even a few Democrats - say the GOP could still hang on, if only by a few seats. The confirmation of Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court has given GOP voters a badly needed enthusiasm boost, they argue, and several races seen as unwinnable just weeks ago are suddenly back within reach for Republicans. ... 

"[R]epublicans say there's no question that their lot has improved in the past few weeks. Their internal polls show the president's approval ratings have increased by an average of 5 points in a handful of swing districts, giving Republicans who were underwater a fighting chance." POLITICO

-- THIS IS A SCENARIO, as Rachael notes, that Republicans find themselves thinking about out on the campaign trail. Internal polling shows many races within the margin of error, but nearly all of those contests would have to break for the GOP for them to keep the House.

-- WHAT MOST REPUBLICANS WILL TELL YOU: Even if the president had sky-scraping approval ratings, history dictates the House would still be gone. As a few Republicans recently reminded us: there are 41 GOP retirements. Seventeen Democrats retired in 2010, when Republicans won 63 seats.

BEHIND THE SCENES ... SOME HOPE ... CORRY BLISS, the executive director of the House GOP super PAC Congressional Leadership Fund, sent a memo to donors yesterday with the subject line "The Green Wave Grows and Political Environment Improves." The memo

-- KEY POINT: "With 19 days until the election, there are two competing factors at play: the green wave is growing, but the political environment continues to improve with new races coming on the map for Republicans and off the map for Democrats."

-- BLISS mentions Minnesota 8 and Nebraska 2 as seats Democrats are "abandoning." Nebraska 2 is Rep. Don Bacon's seat -- the more progressive candidate that the DCCC did not endorse won the primary, which operatives believe pushed the seat to the GOP. Minnesota's 8th district is a seat Trump won by double digits, but was represented by Democratic Rep. Rick Nolan, who served in Congress from 1975 to 1981, and returned in 2012.

-- THE MEMO says that Rep. Rod Blum is up four points in Iowa, which would be a hold for the GOP in a competitive seat. And in Florida 27, where Democratic candidate Donna Shalala is publicly flailing, Maria Elvira Salazar -- the Republican candidate -- is tied. That's a Clinton district formerly held by GOP Rep. Ileana Ros Lehtinen. 

-- 'THE LIBERAL MOB' ... CLF is running radio ads in 10 districts, calling Democrats and their candidates 'the liberal mob' that will 'stop at nothing.' The ad ... WAPO'S MICHAEL SCHERER: "GOP war room blasts endless stream of criticism at Democrats, with Warren its latest target"

FUTURE45 -- the group backed by the Ricketts family -- disclosed spending $4 million on ads against NANCY PELOSI, ALEXANDRIA OCASIO-CORTEZ, BERNIE SANDERS, MAXINE WATERS and ELIZABETH WARREN. 

-- ATTN. GOP GROUPS ... NEW ... AMERICA FIRST ACTION is upping ads in West Virginia's third district by a half-million dollars, Minnesota's first by $400,000 and North Carolina's 13th by $135,000 on behalf of incumbent Rep. Ted Budd. 

Happy Friday morning. 19 DAYS until Election Day. For context: 19 days ago, Sens. Jeff Flake (R-Ariz.) and Chris Coons (D-Del.) were on "60 Minutes," talking about the upcoming FBI background check of Brett Kavanaugh.

THE KREMLIN says JOHN BOLTON is heading back to Moscow to meet with RUSSIAN PRESIDENT VLADIMIR PUTIN. Read more

TRUMP ON THE TRAIL -- "Trump on Gianforte: 'Any guy who can do a body slam is my kind of guy'," by Brent D. Griffiths: "President Donald Trump on Thursday praised Rep. Greg Gianforte's body slamming a reporter in 2017, saying that anyone who did such a thing was 'my kind of guy.' 'Never wrestle him, you understand that?' Trump said of the Montana Republican, eliciting loud cheers during a political rally in Missoula, Mont. 'Any guy who can do a body slam is my kind of guy.'

"'I was in Rome with a lot of the leaders from other countries talking about all sorts of things and I heard about it, and we endorsed Greg very early, but I heard that he had body slammed a reporter,' Trump continued, speaking about the assault on Guardian journalist Ben Jacobs. 'And he was way up, and he was up, and this was like the day of the election or just before, and I said, 'Oh, this is terrible, he is going to lose the election, and then I said, 'Well, wait a minute, I know Montana pretty well, I think it might help him. And it did.'" POLITICO

-- CHRIS CADELAGO in Missoula, Mont., and BRENT D. GRIFFITHS: "Trump, at rally, hints at conspiracy theories for migrant caravan": "President Donald Trump on Thursday amped up his focus on immigration ahead of the midterm elections by claiming, without evidence, that Democrats were behind a group of Central American migrants trying to reach the U.S. 'This will be an election of Kavanaugh, the caravan, law and order and common sense,' Trump said during a political rally in Missoula, Mont., referring to the nomination of Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court.

"Trump, flirting with conspiracy theories about the possibility that the migrants are being paid off, said money was being 'passed through' those very people.

"'Now we're starting to find out - and I won't say it 100 percent, I'll put it a little tiny question mark on the end, but we're not going to get it, but we have the fake news back there, fake news - a lot of money has been passing through people to try to get to the border by Election Day, because they think that is a negative for us,' the president told the crowd. 'Number one, they are being stopped and number two, regardless, that's our issue.'" POLITICO
       
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ANDREW RESTUCCIA: "Trump considering Richard Grenell for U.N. envoy": "President Donald Trump is now seriously considering Richard Grenell, the controversial U.S. ambassador to Germany, to replace Nikki Haley at the United Nations, according to three people familiar with the matter. ... [I]n recent days, several of Trump's closest advisers have put forward Grenell's name again, pointing to his seven-year stint as the United States' U.N. spokesman.

"Grenell met with officials at the White House last week to discuss the job, according to two administration officials. At a separate White House meeting on Thursday, several members of the president's national security team mentioned Grenell's name when asked to recommend their favored candidates for the U.N. ambassador position, two other administration officials said." POLITICO

-- HOT VIDEO - NIKKI HALEY joking about Trump, Elizabeth Warren and more last night at the Al Smith dinner. 16-min. video

THE LATEST ON KHASHOGGI ...

-- THE W.H. HARDLY KNOWS MBS! ... NYT'S MAGGIE HABERMAN, MARK LANDLER, MIKE SCHMIDT and ERIC SCHMITT: "In conversations with allies, the president has begun to distance himself from Prince Mohammed, 33, saying he barely knows him. And he has played down the relationship that Mr. Kushner has cultivated with the Saudi heir." 

-- ALSO FROM THE STORY: "President Trump said on Thursday that he believes the Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi is dead, and he expressed confidence in intelligence reports from multiple sources that strongly suggest a high-level Saudi role in Mr. Khashoggi's assassination. Mr. Trump stopped short of saying the Saudi crown prince, Mohammed bin Salman, was responsible for Mr. Khashoggi's death.

"But he acknowledged that the allegations that the prince ordered the killing raised hard questions about the American alliance with Saudi Arabia and had ignited one of the most serious foreign policy crises of his presidency. 'This one has caught the imagination of the world, unfortunately,' Mr. Trump said in a brief interview with The New York Times in the Oval Office. 'It's not a positive. Not a positive.' ... 

"'Unless the miracle of all miracles happens, I would acknowledge that he's dead,' Mr. Trump said. 'That's based on everything - intelligence coming from every side.' Later, before leaving on a trip to Montana, he was asked what the consequences would be if Saudi Arabia's culpability was established. 'Well, it'll have to be very severe,' he said. 'I mean, it's bad, bad stuff.'" NYT 

-- NYT'S DAVID KIRKPATRICK in Istanbul and BEN HUBBARD in Beirut: "Saudis May Blame Intelligence Official for Killing Jamal Khashoggi": "The rulers of Saudi Arabia are considering blaming a top intelligence official close to Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman for the killing of Jamal Khashoggi, three people with knowledge of the Saudi plans said Thursday. The plan to assign blame to Maj. Gen. Ahmed al-Assiri, a high-ranking adviser to the crown prince, would be an extraordinary recognition of the magnitude of international backlash to hit the kingdom since the disappearance of Mr. Khashoggi, a prominent Saudi dissident." NYT

-- NBC NEWS' JOSH LEDERMAN, KEN DILANIAN, CAROL LEE and COURTNEY KUBE: "U.S. intel officials: Inconceivable Saudi prince had no link to Khashoggi death" NBC

-- BURGESS EVERETT: "Corker rails against White House's intel 'clampdown' on Khashoggi": "The Tennessee Republican said in an interview he sought to view recent U.S. intelligence on Monday and Tuesday regarding Khashoggi's disappearance and likely murder in Turkey this month but was told by U.S. officials that he could not do so. Corker suggested that the administration's current opaque position on who may have killed Khashoggi and whether Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is responsible may be untenable. 

"'This is going to come to a head in a very short amount of time. This isn't getting better over time. It seems to me over the next week or so people are going to know more about what happened,' Corker said. 'There has been a clampdown on any further intelligence updates to senators ... it can't go on that long, they need to come out and share their views of what happened and share with us.'" POLITICO

-- WAPO'S BOB COSTA and KAROUN DEMIRJIAN: "Conservatives mount a whisper campaign smearing Khashoggi in defense of Trump": "In recent days, a cadre of conservative House Republicans allied with Trump has been privately exchanging articles from right-wing outlets that fuel suspicion of Khashoggi, highlighting his association with the Muslim Brotherhood during his youth and raising conspiratorial questions about his work decades ago as an embedded reporter covering Osama bin Laden, according to four GOP officials involved in the discussions who were not authorized to speak publicly." WaPo

-- "Saudi Lobbying in the U.S. Has Tripled Since Trump Took Office," by Time's Alana Abramson: "According to data compiled by the Center for International Policy, a foreign policy think tank ... the Saudi government spent $10 million on lobbying in 2016. By 2017, that number had nearly tripled, increasing to almost $27 million." Time

BLOOMBERG: "President Emmanuel Macron said France has suspended political visits to Saudi Arabia in coordination with Germany, the U.K. and the Netherlands as he awaits 'clarifications' on the disappearance of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi." Bloomberg

THE INVESTIGATIONS -- "Mueller report PSA: Prepare for disappointment," by Darren Samuelsohn: "President Donald Trump's critics have spent the past 17 months anticipating what some expect will be among the most thrilling events of their lives: special counsel Robert Mueller's final report on Russian 2016 election interference. They may be in for a disappointment.

"That's the word POLITICO got from defense lawyers working on the Russia probe and more than 15 former government officials with investigation experience spanning Watergate to the 2016 election case. The public, they say, shouldn't expect a comprehensive and presidency-wrecking account of Kremlin meddling and alleged obstruction of justice by Trump - not to mention an explanation of the myriad subplots that have bedeviled lawmakers, journalists and amateur Mueller sleuths.

"Perhaps most unsatisfying: Mueller's findings may never even see the light of day." POLITICO

NEW: EUGENE DANIELS and MARY NEWMAN kick off POLITICO's video series "The Midterm View" hitting the road to explore some of the biggest themes of the midterms. In episode one, they look at the battleground as it stands now and what's at stake for each party. POLITICO

WAPO'S PAUL KANE: "Republican candidates rely on stealth campaigner George W. Bush": "Republican Rep. Martha McSally will spend Friday with President Trump, trying to rally conservative support for her Senate bid in Arizona.

"But Thursday evening, McSally is hosting another big name in GOP politics who, these days, prefers to do his work behind closed doors: George W. Bush. ... At a time when Trump rules the Republican Party, practically choosing winners and losers through his endorsements in the primaries, Bush is in high demand on the campaign trail." WaPo

NYT'S CARL HULSE ... ON WASHINGTON, on page A15: "Seeking Work After Congress? Sharp Partisans Need Not Apply": "Dozens of soon-to-be former lawmakers will be looking for work come mid-November, but big K Street trade associations might not be the best place for them to send a r&eacute;sum&eacute;.

"Once a comfortable landing spot for retiring and defeated members of Congress seeking to keep their hand in federal affairs and be paid well to do so, the trade groups that represent the nation's businesses, industries and professions in the nation's capital are, as they say, moving in a different direction.

"'The model has changed,' said Michael Sommers, who served as chief of staff to John A. Boehner when he was House speaker. After a stint at one trade group, Mr. Sommers was in May named head of the American Petroleum Institute, one of the country's largest and most powerful industry organizations." NYT
       
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TRUMP'S FRIDAY -- The president is in Scottsdale, Arizona, where he will participate in a roundtable with supporters, deliver remarks at a fundraiser lunch and sign a presidential memorandum. He will then travel to Luke Air Force Base where he will get a tour and hold a roundtable. Trump will then fly to Mesa, Arizona, where he will headline a political rally. 

SIGN UP FOR THE PLAYBOOK ELECTION CHALLENGE -- Pick who will win the most hotly contested House, Senate and gubernatorial races across the country. The challenge

JOIN US! ANNA and JAKE are heading out to Philadelphia for our last Playbook Elections event Oct. 29 at the Ritz Carlton. We'll be talking with REPS. BRENDAN BOYLE (D-PA.) and RYAN COSTELLO (R-PA.) about what's happening on the ground in Pennsylvania and across the country in the lead-up to the election. Doors open at 8 a.m. RSVP
                 PLAYBOOK READS         

PHOTO DU JOUR: President Donald Trump arrives to a campaign rally in Missoula, Mont., on Thursday. | Carolyn Kaster/AP Photo
   
SUNDAY SO FAR ...
          
NBC
 
"Meet The Press": Anthony Scaramucci ... Panel: David Brody, Peggy Noonan, Eugene Robinson and Katy Tur
   
CNN
 
"State of the Union" (live from Tampa): Sen. Ben Sasse (R-Neb.) ... Panel: Pam Bondi, Rep. Ted Deutch (D-Fla.), Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) and Symone Sanders
   
CNN
 
"Inside Politics": Julie Hirschfeld Davis, Jonathan Martin, Kaitlan Collins and Sahil Kapur
   
FOX
 
"Fox News Sunday": Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) ... Panel: Newt Gingrich, Jane Harman, Marc Short and Charles Lane. Power Player: Jose Andres
        
THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION -- "Senior Energy Dept. aide moving to Veterans Affairs," by Andrew Restuccia and Ted Hesson: "John Mashburn, a former Trump White House official, is leaving the Energy Department for a senior position at the Department of Veterans Affairs, according to three people familiar with the move. 

"Mashburn, a senior adviser to Energy Secretary Rick Perry, is stepping down after six months on the job. One of the people said he's joining the VA in a high-level role advising the head of the department, Robert Wilkie. 

"Mashburn, a veteran of conservative policy circles, served as the policy director of Donald Trump's presidential campaign. He then worked on Trump's presidential transition team and subsequently became deputy cabinet secretary when Trump ascended to the White House." POLITICO

-- "Acting leader removed from agency the White House has used to provide jobs to Trump supporters," by WaPo's Robert O'Harrow Jr.: "The White House has removed the acting chief of a small foreign aid office less than two months after he was put in place to quell controversy over the Trump administration's use of the agency as a source of jobs for political supporters, according to interviews and an internal email obtained by The Washington Post. 

"Brock Bierman has served as part-time leader of the Millennium Challenge Corporation since Aug. 21, while also juggling responsibilities as an assistant administrator at the U.S. Agency for International Development." WaPo

         
THE LATEST ON ZINKE -- "Interior Dept. probe faults Zinke for travels with wife," by Ben Lefebvre, Anthony Adragna and Zack Colman: "Interior Secretary Ryan Zinke sought to skirt or alter department policies to justify his taxpayer-funded trips with his wife, the agency's inspector general said in the latest critical report on travel practices by President Donald Trump's Cabinet members. 

"Zinke's maneuvers included pressing Interior staffers to research whether his wife, Lola, could become a volunteer at the agency, a move the employees said was designed to enable her to travel with him at taxpayer expense, according to a report obtained by POLITICO that the inspector general's office will release next week.

"It said he also violated Interior policy by have her travel with him in federal vehicles. The report addresses several allegations of the Zinkes' travel practices, and it lands amid a controversy about an announced move to place a political appointee from the Department of Housing and Urban Development in charge of the Interior IG's office. HUD Secretary Ben Carson announced the move in a staff email last week, but an Interior spokeswoman said Thursday that the news was 'false information.'" POLITICO
                 PLAYBOOKERS      
BIRTHWEEK (was Sunday): John Dean turned 8-0 (hat tip: James Rosen)

BIRTHDAY OF THE DAY: journalist Steven Greenhouse, who recently finished writing a book for Knopf that will be called: "Beaten Down, Worked Up: The Past, Present, and Future of American Labor". A fun fact about Steven: "I grew up in Massapequa on Long Island - same town as Alec Baldwin and Jerry Seinfeld (and Peggy Noonan). I actually went to Woodstock, and once even went to an amazing concert in Flushing Meadow where the two performers were Jimi Hendrix and Janis Joplin." Playbook Plus Q&A

BIRTHDAYS: Grover Norquist, president of Americans for Tax Reform, is 62 ... Carl Hulse ... Marvin Nicholson ... Steve Doocy is 62 ... Holly Fine, documentarian and former 60 Minutes producer (h/t Tammy Haddad) ... Megan Powers ... Maggie Steenland, student at Duke Fuqua and NBC News alum (h/t Rachel Zuckerman) ... BuzzFeed comms manager Katie Rayford is 28 (h/t Ben Smith) ... Winston Lord (h/t Tim Burger)... Amy Carter ... Dale Brown, founding president and CEO of the Financial Services Institute, is 56 ... WaPo's Anthony Faiola ... Politico Europe's Sarah Wheaton ... Rep. Kurt Schrader (D-Ore.) is 67 ... Amy Walter ... Becca Herries ... Politico's Kyle Cheney is 33 ... Edelman's Jeremy
 Gosbee and Amy Hemingway ... Brett Pinto ... Nicole Pavia ... Marsha Mercer ... Kevin Keane of the American Beverage Association ... Kathryn Fanlund, comms manager for Legal Services Corporation ... JC Sherman ... Samantha Schwab ...

... former RNC Chairman Michael Steele is 6-0 ... Lauren Crawford Shaver, partner at Forbes Tate Partners ... Julia Schechter, senior associate at SKDKnickerbocker ... Jay Footlik is 53 ... Kelley Anne Carney (h/t Anna Epstein) ... Rob Feiler ... Tajha Chappellet-Lanier ... Ray Day, chief comms officer at IBM ... Rex Smith ... WNYC's Andrea Bernstein ... Gareth Danker is 4-0 ... Hailey Crust ... Sean Smith, EVP at Porter Novelli ... Sam Heitner ... Elie Litvin ... Camille Solberg ... Austin Hansen ... Lindsay Applebaum ... David Worcester ... Shelby Coffey ... Josh Alexander ... Brandon Webb ... Richard Fife ... Sarah Rojas ... Johnnetta Cole ... Dana Brown Ritter ... Jerusalem Mayor Nir
 Barkat is 59 ... Yoram Ettinger ... Michelle Fischler ... Philip Minardi ... Eileen Zimmerman ... Michael Paul Carey ... former Rep. Patrick Murphy (D-Pa.) is 45 ... Robin Smith ... Katie Belanger ... Monica Vernon (h/ts Teresa Vilmain)
       
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