Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score, presented by Everytown for Gun Safety Action Fund: GOP holds out hope for keeping the House — SLF posts massive September haul — Trump makes midterms about Trump
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 19 Oct 2018 08:03:08 -0600
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10/19/2018 10:00 AM EDT
        
By ZACH MONTELLARO ([email-masked]; @ZachMontellaro)

        
Editor's Note: This edition of Free Morning Score is published weekdays at 10 a.m. POLITICO Pro Campaigns subscribers hold exclusive early access to the newsletter each morning at 6 a.m. To learn more about POLITICO Pro's comprehensive policy intelligence coverage, policy tools and services, click here. 
          THE TOPLINES         
SO YOU'RE SAYING THERE'S A CHANCE - There are quiet rumblings that Republicans could barely, just barely, hang on to the House. POLITICO's Rachael Bade: "House Republicans - and privately, even a few Democrats - say the GOP could still hang on, if only by a few seats. The confirmation of Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court has given GOP voters a badly-needed enthusiasm boost, they argue, and several races seen as unwinnable just weeks ago are suddenly back within reach for Republicans. Democrats, meanwhile, have retreated from several battlegrounds once considered prime targets. They've also deserted a Democratic-controlled open seat in Minnesota, creating a new, rare pick-up opportunity
 for Republicans in a cycle where they've consistently been on defense.

"'The environment has significantly improved over the past few weeks,' said Corry Bliss, executive director of the GOP super PAC Congressional Leadership Fund. 'For the first time in months, we have the wind at our backs instead of in our face. Now it is incumbent upon Republicans to keep that up.' ... Nevertheless, it's indisputable Republicans are in a serious jam: Democrats have infinitely more paths to win the chamber than Republicans do of holding it."

BIG MONEY - Senate Leadership Fund brought in a massive $37.6 million haul in September, POLITICO's own Maggie Severns reported. "Donors got massively fired up after the Kavanaugh fight, including some who had gone dormant for years and others who just wanted to double down," Steven Law, the president and CEO of SLF, told Maggie. Side note: The deadline for SLF (and the other super PACs and committees that file monthly) is Saturday, so expect more fundraising details in Score on Monday.

- FIRST IN SCORE - And in small-dollar donations, the Democratic group End Citizens United said it has raised $7 million in such donations for its endorsed candidates. The group says it funneled $670,000 in donations to Sen. Heidi Heitkamp after her no vote during the Supreme Court battle and has directed more than $400,000 to Rep. Beto O'Rourke's Texas Senate bid.

Happy Friday! The biggest fear among Americans? Corruption of government officials, according to a study from Chapman University. As always, email me at [email-masked] or DM me at @ZachMontellaro.

Email the great Campaign Pro team at [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked] and [email-masked]. Follow them on Twitter: @PoliticoScott @ec_schneider, @JamesArkin and @DanielStrauss4.

Days until the 2018 election: 18

** Presented by Everytown for Gun Safety Action Fund: Every day, gun violence kills 96 Americans, and wounds hundreds more. Everytown is galvanizing Americans to send the NRA - and the politicians in its pocket - a message: Not One More. In November, we'll elect leaders who will put gun safety first. NotOneMore.com **

POLITICO IS PARTNERING WITH THE MILKEN INSTITUTE to bring a special edition of the POLITICO Pulse newsletter to the Milken Institute Future of Health Summit. Written by Dan Diamond, the newsletter will take readers inside one of the most influential gatherings of global health industry leaders and innovators as they tackle today's most pressing health challenges. The newsletter will run Oct. 23-24. Sign up today to begin receiving exclusive coverage on Day One of the summit. 

PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP SAYS A RED WAVE IS COMING ON ELECTION DAY. Is he right, or will the tide turn blue? Compete against the nation's top political minds in the POLITICO Playbook Election Challenge, by correctly picking the winning candidates in some of the most competitive House, Senate and gubernatorial races in the country. Win awesome prizes and eternal bragging rights. Sign up today: Visit politico.com/playbookelectionchallenge to play.
          IN THE TRENCHES         
THE CLOSING MESSAGE - President Donald Trump has told voters that he might as well be on the ballot, even if some of his fellow Republicans don't want him to. The Washington Post's Ashley Parker and Josh Dawsey: "Bill Stepien, the White House political director, said the strategy is an acknowledgment that Trump's policies are already on the ballot this November, so he might as well use his personal appeal to try to move 'the Trump coalition' to vote for Republican candidates who will support his agenda if elected. 'He's the leader of the party, and he's willing to put his own political capital on the line for the benefit of his party,' Stepien said. 'The president knows how to fire up his
 base, he knows the DNA of his voters, and that's what he's responding to.'

"The risk, however, is that in energizing his base, Trump could also fire up the Democratic side while alienating moderate suburban voters, who may be looking to Congress to serve as a check on the president. 'The fatal flaw' in Trump's strategy, said Guy Cecil, chairman of Priorities USA, a Democratic super PAC, 'is that one, it motivates our side; and two, it makes the assumption that all previous Trump voters are still voting Republican, which, especially in House and governor races, we see is not the case.'"

- At a rally in Montana, Trump praised Rep. Greg Gianforte (R-Mont.) for assaulting a reporter in the runup to the 2016 election. The Guardian's Ed Pilkington: "Trump described in glowing terms the physical assault that occurred [in May 2017] when Ben Jacobs, the Guardian's political correspondent, was asking Gianforte a question about health care policy in the course of a special congressional election in Bozeman, Montana. The US president incited cheers and chants from a crowd of about 8,000 supporters on Thursday night when he said: 'Greg is smart. And by the way, never wrestle him. You understand. Never.' As the cheers rang out across an aircraft hangar in Missoula, Trump went on to
 say: 'Any guy that can do a body slam ... he's my guy.'"

- The president's campaign announced his rally for Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) has been moved to a larger arena, per POLITICO's Mary Lee (someone ask GOP Rep. John Culberson what he thinks about Trump hosting a rally near his home turf).

POLLS POLLS POLLS - Sen. Bob Menendez (D-N.J.) has his second comfortable lead in as many days. In a new Monmouth University poll, he's ahead of Republican Bob Hugin, 49 percent to 40 percent, in their standard midterm model. In a Democratic surge model, he's up 50 percent to 39 percent, and in a low turnout model he leads 51 percent to 39 percent. Monmouth made it a point to say this will be the only time it polls the state. The poll surveyed 527 likely voters from Oct. 11-15.

THE DEBATE STAGE - Sen. Heidi Heitkamp (D-N.D.) opened up a debate with Rep. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.) Thursday night by apologizing again for an open letter that identified women as victims of sexual assault without their permission. "I always want to be a senator that North Dakota can be proud of," she said. "Unfortunately this week I not only disappointed many North Dakotans, I disappointed myself." The pair then sparred over health care, voter ID in the state, immigration and more, per Inforum's John Hageman.

- Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-Mo.) and Republican Josh Hawley also clashed over health care, guns and entitlement programs, via the St. Louis Post-Dispatch's Kurt Erickson.

PLAYER/REF - In three separate elections, a Republican secretary of state (who oversees state elections) is on the ballot for another office. McClatchy's Tim Johnson: "Elected secretaries of state in Georgia and Kansas - who in their official capacities oversee the elections in their states - are running for governor. Ohio's secretary of state is running for lieutenant governor. ... They have faced scattered calls to resign but have refused to do so. Election reformers say the situation underscores the conflict of interest when an official has responsibilities for an election while also running as a candidate."

STEYER WATCH - Billionaire megadonor Tom Steyer is kicking in more money to back Florida Democratic gubernatorial nominee Andrew Gillum, giving $2 million to his political action committee, CNN's Ryan Nobles reported.

TRIAGE ALERT - Gubernatorial edition! The RGA has axed its remaining buys in Minnesota, a sign that the election is slipping away from the GOP. Campaign Pro's Daniel Strauss reported the group "cut $1.1 million from its ad reservations in Minneapolis between Oct. 24 and Nov. 6, according to Advertising Analytics - its only remaining spending in the race" between Democratic Rep. Tim Walz and Republican Jeff Johnson.

- The NRCC has canceled a buy in Nevada's 4th District, where former GOP Rep. Cresent Hardy is facing former Democratic Rep. Steven Horsford, per The Hill's Reid Wilson. The buy was reportedly $1.2 million.

AD ROUNDUP - James and I rounded up Thursday's ad releases for your viewing pleasure - coming in at just a hair under 50 ads. This edition's highlighted ad comes from Sen. Joe Donnelly (D-Ind.), which has him chopping logs and making various wood-cutting related puns. It got everyone's attention, arguably for the the wrong reason: It drew comparisons to a campaign ad from HBO comedy show "Veep."

- FIRST IN SCORE - Senate Majority PAC is launching a pair of ads in two hotly contested Senate races. The first ad targets Republican Mike Braun in Indiana over his business practices. "Drivers say Mike Braun continued to force employees to drive [trucks] more hours than the law allowed," the ad says. "His company risked lives." The second ad goes after Missouri's Hawley, hitting him over special interests and health care, citing a lawsuit to gut the Affordable Care Act. "The secret dark money candidate, Josh Hawley. He's never been for us," the ad says.

FRIENDLY FIRE - GOP Rep. George Holding criticized an ad from an outside group as an "example of broken politics" ... even though it was from the Congressional Leadership Fund, which backs him. "It's an example of an outside group spending money and not knowing what is going on in North Carolina," Holding said to The News & Observer's Brian Murphy, talking about a CLF ad that says Democrat Linda Coleman didn't pay her taxes on time. "Everyone waits until the last minute. Why should you give the government money before you have to?"

SWITCHING JERSEYS - A pair of former Republican officials endorsed a Democrat. In Kansas, former Gov. Mike Hayden backed Democrat Laura Kelly over Republican Kris Kobach. "After eight years of crisis, we cannot elect someone who wants to repeat the disasters of the past," Hayden said in a statement, according to The Kansas City Star's Hunter Woodall. He joins former Gov. Bill Graves and former Sen. Nancy Kassebaum as Kansas Republican bigwigs who have backed Kelly. The second is former Republican Rep. Richard Hanna, who backed Democrat Anthony Brindisi over his successor, GOP Rep. Claudia Tenney, in NY-22, the Auburn Citizen's Robert Harding reported. This is probably less of a surprise,
 because Hanna endorsed Hillary Clinton in 2016 and didn't back Tenney in 2016 after she tried to primary him in 2014.

THE PATH TO THE MIDTERMS - POLITICO is launching "The Midterm View," a new video series hosted by our own Eugene Daniels. Eugene hit the road to talk to voters on the trade war, the power of suburbia and everything in between in the runup to the midterms. The first video in the series features Campaign Pro chief Scott Bland talking about why the map favored Democrats in the House, but Republicans in the Senate.

PLAGIARISM PROBLEMS - Wisconsin GOP Gov. Scott Walker accused his opponent, Democrat Tony Evers of plagiarism. POLITICO Pro's Caitlin Emma and Daniel Strauss: Walkers said Evers plagiarized "parts of an education budget plan that Evers submitted as state schools chief, just hours before Walker and Evers clash in their first debate in the hotly contested race. Four passages in the budget document released last month by Evers - and shared with POLITICO by the Walker campaign - were taken from other sources without any attribution, the Department of Public Instruction acknowledged in a statement. Evers told POLITICO that the lack of citations for the material shouldn't distract from his
 'proactive, positive vision' for Wisconsin students, and agency procedures will be changed to prevent a recurrence.

"A spokesman for Evers' agency, Thomas McCarthy, said the lack of attribution was the result of 'an oversight by staff when drafting the paper.' ... Walker's campaign argued that Evers' primary job as the state's top elected schools official is preparing an education budget and the final product contains 'stolen ideas.'"

JOCKEYING FOR POWER - Don't call it a move with an eye on the looming leadership battle, but... Democratic Rep. Seth Moulton and his Serve America PAC are launching staffers to battleground races across the country and kicking money to state parties. "Seth is deploying 16 members of his team to 13 races for the final push, in states including Colorado, Illinois, Kentucky, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, New Jersey, Ohio, Texas, and Virginia," a memo from the group read. Moulton "will also be traveling to stump for candidates in Kentucky, New Jersey, Ohio, and Pennsylvania."

CODA - HEADLINE OF THE DAY: "Nevada's famous pimp expected to win election despite death," from the AP.

** Presented by Everytown for Gun Safety Action Fund: Americans want stronger, not weaker, gun laws - and elected officials are getting the message. No more school shootings with just "thoughts and prayers." No more preventable tragedies without action. This year, Democratic and Republican candidates are running away from the NRA and its dangerous, out-of-touch agenda.

Everytown is all-in on electing leaders who stand up for our communities by supporting common-sense gun safety measures. We're knocking on doors, making calls, turning out the vote, and spending $30 million to elect leaders who will put our safety first. On November 6, we will demonstrate that the NRA is out of touch - and out of time. NotOneMore.com **
    
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