Subject: POLITICO Playbook: First look: ‘The Hill to Die On’
From: "Anna Palmer Jake Sherman Daniel Lippman" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 22 Oct 2018 04:27:16 -0600
List-Id: <1376319.xt.local>

Presented by Google: Playbook is POLITICO's must-read briefing on what's driving the day in Washington                Oct 22, 2018 View in browser                   
 By Jake Sherman, Anna Palmer and Daniel Lippman 
             
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Listen to today's Audio Briefing
              DRIVING THE DAY         

FIRST LOOK ... "THE HILL TO DIE ON" ... A note from Jake and Anna: Over the last 18 months, we've poured our hearts into reporting and writing a behind-the-scenes book about Congress in the era of Trump. "The Hill to Die On: The Battle for Congress and the Future of Trump's America" details the palace intrigue and the fight for power in Washington during Trump's presidency. Some of the most fascinating figures on Capitol Hill and in Washington have given us amazing access into their worlds -- and we hope to tell you the story about how D.C. and governing worked in these fascinating times.

WE LIKE TO SAY IT'S LIKE "HOUSE OF CARDS" but better, and real. Buy a book, come to a Playbook event and we'll be happy to sign it. Pre-order now ... Amazon ... Barnes and Noble 

AN INTERROGATION GONE WRONG? ... CNN: "Surveillance footage shows Saudi operative in Khashoggi's clothes after he was killed, Turkish source says"

Happy Monday. 15 DAYS until the election. Tennessee Democratic Senate candidate PHIL BREDESEN reported giving his own campaign $2 MILLION yesterday. 

COUNTER NARRATIVE -- NYT'S KEN VOGEL and RACHEL SHOREY: "Republicans Hold Cash Edge Heading Into Final Stretch of the Midterms": "Republicans entered the final month of the campaign with more money in the bank than the Democrats, providing them with vital ammunition as they wage a furious effort to hold on to control of Congress.

"The most recent round of campaign finance disclosures, filed Saturday, showed that Republican national party committees, candidates in key House and Senate races and their top unlimited-money outside groups, or 'super PACs,' had $337 million on hand as of Sept. 30. Their Democratic counterparts had $285 million in the bank on the same date.

"It was a rare bright spot for Republicans in a fund-raising picture otherwise dominated by Democrats on the strength of their breakneck small-donor fund-raising by candidates in key congressional races. By contrast, Republicans owe their cash-on-hand advantage to brisk major-donor fund-raising, and a slower pace of spending, by their party committees and super PACs." NYT

-- JAMES ARKIN in Indianapolis: "Dem Senate hopes shift from winning majority to limiting losses": "Democratic hopes of winning the Senate have faded in the final weeks of the 2018 election, with the party now needing to win every one of more than a half-dozen competitive races in order to capture control of the chamber. 

"It's a far cry from a month ago, when Democrats saw a path to the majority opening wider as several battleground races trended in their direction. But in recent weeks, Sen. Heidi Heitkamp's (D-N.D.) seat has slipped away and looks likely to be a Republican pickup, and Democrats have not opened advantages in any of the three GOP-held seats where they're on offense, instead trailing in public polling in Nevada and Tennessee." POLITICO

WHAT THE PRESIDENT IS THINKING -- GABBY ORR and DANIEL LIPPMAN: "Trump gets ready to play midterm blowout blame game": "At his rallies, President Donald Trump argues that the midterms are about one person - Donald Trump. 'Get out in 2018,' Trump told a crowd in Missouri last month, 'because you're voting for me!' Privately, the president says the exact opposite.

"According to two people familiar with the conversations, Trump is distancing himself from a potential Republican thumping on Election Day. He's telling confidantes that he doesn't see the midterms as a referendum on himself, describing his 2020 reelection bid as 'the real election.' And he says that he holds House Speaker Paul Ryan and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell responsible for protecting their congressional majorities.

"According to one person with knowledge of these talks, Trump has said of Ryan and McConnell: 'These are their elections ... and if they screw it up, it's not my fault.' Other sources said Trump is sure to lash out at perhaps his favorite bogeyman of all - the media - for allegedly opposing him." POLITICO

CHEAT SHEET: PELOSI, TRUMP KUMBAYA IN THE FUTURE? -- "Democrats as dealmakers? Where Pelosi might work with Trump," by Megan Cassella, Sarah Karlin-Smith, Elana Schor and Aaron Lorenzo: "NAFTA ... Drug pricing ... Criminal justice reform ... Tweaks to retirement savings, tax law." POLITICO
       
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THE LATEST ON KHASHOGGI ... 

-- WAPO'S TAMER EL GHOBASHY, KAREEM FAHIM, and CAROL MORELLO: "Saudi attempts to distance crown prince from Khashoggi killing haven't quieted uproar": "Saudi Arabia's foreign minister denied on Sunday that the nation's powerful young crown prince ordered Jamal Khashoggi's killing, but the attempt to distance Mohammed bin Salman from the journalist's demise did little to blunt an international uproar that could test Saudi Arabia's status as a regional power. 

"At the same time, Saudi officials have failed to answer questions about where Khashoggi's remains are and have offered inconsistent narratives for how he was killed, undermining the government's assertion that Khashoggi died after a fistfight broke out when he was confronted by agents seeking to bring him back to Riyadh while he was visiting the Saudi Consulate in Istanbul on Oct. 2.

"That explanation will face a fresh challenge on Tuesday when Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is expected to reveal details of his government's investigation into the killing of Khashoggi, a move that could directly contradict Saudi Arabia's official account of what happened inside its consulate.

"Erdogan said he would explain the episode 'in a very different way' when his ruling party meets, adding to the already intense global pressure Saudi leadership has faced to provide a full picture of how Khashoggi was killed. 'We seek justice and this will be revealed in all its naked truth, not through some ordinary steps but in all its naked truth,' Erdogan said on Sunday ... 'The incident will be revealed entirely.'" WaPo

-- MNUCHIN SPEAKS ... WSJ's IAN TALLEY in Jerusalem: "Mr. Mnuchin told a small group of reporters that the administration's relationship with Riyadh was critical to the U.S. campaign to counter Iran's bid to become the region's dominant power. 

"Mr. Mnuchin said it was too early in the investigations of Mr. Khashoggi's death to discuss sanctioning the kingdom. But he suggested the U.S. generally should punish gross human-rights abuses and target those responsible for them, leaving the door open for possible punitive action.

"He said his message in visiting Saudi Arabia - the primary challenger to Iranian power in the Middle East and a crucial oil supplier-was that the two countries 'have very important issues that we continue to focus on,' including combating terrorist financing and countering Iran. 'We will continue in that relationship, while we also simultaneously want to get to the bottom of what the facts are about the Khashoggi situation, which is obviously a terrible situation,' Mr. Mnuchin said after a meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. WSJ

-- NYT'S ALAN RAPPEPORT in Jerusalem and JIM TANKERSLEY: "Another Tax Cut? Trump and Republicans Offer a Midterm Pitch, if Not a Plan": "The 2017 Republican tax cuts have been a dud on the campaign trail ahead of the November midterm elections, so President Trump has come up with a new plan: more tax cuts.

"Steven Mnuchin, the Treasury secretary, said in an interview on Sunday that he had been working diligently with Representative Kevin Brady of Texas, the Republican chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee, to develop another tax plan that would be released 'shortly.' 

"'This is specifically focused on the middle class and not beyond that,' Mr. Mnuchin said in Jerusalem on the first stop of his six-country Middle East trip. Mr. Mnuchin said the president asked Treasury officials and Republican lawmakers to focus on developing a middle-class tax plan. But he could not offer details about which tax brackets might have lower rates or say if the package would include more generous deductions. Nor has anyone explained how - or whether - the plan would be financed or if it would again add to the nation's ballooning deficit." NYT

GUESS WHAT. There won't be a tax plan that passes before Election Day. Zero percent chance. Congress is gone!

MNUCHIN is slated to travel to Saudi Arabia today. 

-- WAPO'S TOM HAMBURGER, BETH REINHARD and JUSTIN WM. MOYER: "Inside the Saudis' Washington influence machine: How the kingdom gained power through fierce lobbying and charm offensives": "Earlier this year, Saudi officials even offered Super Bowl tickets and chartered flights to the event to media stars such as Jake Tapper of CNN and Bret Baier of Fox News, according to Tapper and a Fox News spokeswoman. (Both said they turned the offers down.) ... During the seven weeks leading up to the crown prince's visit and Yemen resolution vote, lobbyists reported 759 contacts with members of Congress, staffers, academics and reporters on behalf of the Saudi government, according to public records."
 WaPo

FOR YOUR RADAR -- REUTERS: "Trump says U.S. to exit landmark nuclear arms pact, Russia threatens retaliation": "Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said on Sunday that a unilateral withdrawal by the United States would be 'very dangerous' and lead to a 'military-technical' retaliation. [Mikhail] Gorbachev, now a frail 87-year-old, said it would be a mistake for Washington to quit the treaty, and it would undermine work he and U.S. counterparts did to end the Cold War Arms race. 'Do they really not understand in Washington what this could lead to?' Interfax news agency quoted Gorbachev as saying." Reuters 

-- TRUMP NATIONAL SECURITY ADVISER JOHN BOLTON is scheduled to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin later this week. 

WAR REPORT - "U.S. brigadier general wounded Thursday in Afghanistan attack," by CNN's Ryan Browne: "U.S. Army Brig. Gen. Jeffrey Smiley, who oversees the NATO military advisory mission in southern Afghanistan, was wounded in the Thursday insider attack that took place in Kandahar Province, Afghanistan. ... 

"Smiley, the commander of Train, Advise, Assist and Command -- South, is based in Kandahar. He is being treated for the wound and is still in charge of the command. Previously, the NATO-led coalition had identified the two Americans wounded in the attack as a military service member and a civilian government employee." CNN

THE INVESTIGATIONS -- "Special counsel examines conflicting accounts as scrutiny of Roger Stone and WikiLeaks deepens," by WaPo's Carol D. Leonnig, Manuel Roig-Franzia and Ros Helderman: "In recent weeks, a grand jury in Washington has listened to more than a dozen hours of testimony and FBI technicians have pored over gigabytes of electronic messages as part of the special counsel's quest to solve one burning mystery: Did longtime Trump adviser Roger Stone - or any other associate of the president - have advance knowledge of WikiLeaks' plans to release hacked Democratic emails in 2016?

"While outwardly quiet for the last month, Robert S. Mueller III's investigators have been aggressively pursuing leads behind the scenes about whether Stone was in communication with the online group, whose disclosures of emails believed to have been hacked by Russian operatives disrupted the 2016 presidential campaign, according to people familiar with the special counsel probe." WaPo

         
THE JUICE ... 

-- FIRST IN PLAYBOOK -- GIVEGREEN has raised $17 MILLION this cycle, more than doubling its 2016 haul of $8.4 million. GiveGreen is run by LCV Victory Fund in partnership with NextGen America and NRDC Action Fund PAC.

-- RICHARD HUDOCK is leaving CNN to be NBC's D.C.-based communications director. 

TRUMP'S MONDAY -- The president is having lunch with VP Mike Pence at 12:15. He will leave the White House at 2:30 p.m. en route to Houston, Texas. He will travel to the Houston Toyota Center where he will meet with supporters at 5:50 p.m. At 6:30 p.m. he will headline a fundraiser before returning to Washington.
                 PLAYBOOK READS         

PHOTO DU JOUR: Ron DeSantis and Andrew Gillum shake hands after a Florida gubernatorial debate on Sunday. | Chris O'Meara/AP Photo
   
WASHINGTON INC. -- MARIANNE LEVINE: "'Winter is coming': Companies brace for flurry of investigations": "Washington law firms are preparing for a boom in business from a projected Democratic takeover of the House in 2019, anticipating that pharmaceutical, tech, and oil and gas companies will need help navigating a flurry of oversight investigations. Law firms that specialize in helping businesses manage congressional investigations, including Covington & Burling and Akin Gump, have been tracking Democrats' criticisms of a host of corporations all year.

"Now, Washington lawyers are crafting memos for clients describing the inquiries they could face next year and which lawmakers might lead the relevant House committees. Others are reaching out to corporations they believe will need new representation, explaining how they would keep them out of the crosshairs of Democratic-led probes." POLITICO

GOLDEN STATE -- "In Orange County, 24 Vietnamese Americans are running for office. 13 share the same last name," by LA Times' Anh Do: "They are candidates for state senator, city council member, the California Assembly, sheriff and Westminster mayor. And they are part of a whopping 24 people of Vietnamese descent running for office in Orange County - their campaign signs dominating street corners in Little Saigon. 

"In this part of the traditionally Republican county, it is open to debate whether a much-touted Democratic 'blue wave' will sweep through the midterm elections. But it's indisputable that there will be a Nguyen wave. Thirteen of the candidates share that last name - just like the 38-year-old business consultant from Garden Grove ogling their campaign signs and snapping photos." LAT

         
VALLEY TALK -- "Uber Ambitiously Eyes 2021 For Food-Delivery Drones Launch," by WSJ's Greg Bensinger and Andy Pasztor: "Uber Technologies Inc. envisions taking to the skies with a fleet of food-delivery drones in as little as three years, an ambitious timeline for a ride-hailing company that would face numerous technical challenges and regulatory hurdles.

"The San Francisco company is seeking an operations executive who can help make delivery drones functional as soon as next year and commercially operational in multiple markets by 2021, according to a job posting that appeared on Uber's website." WSJ

MEDIAWATCH -- "Richard Parsons Steps Down From CBS Board," by WSJ's Joe Flint: "CBS Corp. interim chairman Richard Parsons is resigning because of health issues. ... In a statement Sunday, Mr. Parsons said he has been fighting multiple myeloma and complications have now arisen that has led his doctors to advise reducing his workload. Mr. Parsons had only joined the CBS board about six weeks ago. ... A former chief executive of Time Warner Inc., Mr. Parsons was brought in to lend a steady hand to CBS in the wake of [Les] Moonves' departure." WSJ
                 PLAYBOOKERS      
WELCOME TO THE WORLD -- KYLE CHENEY, a Congress reporter for POLITICO, and HANNAH CHENEY, a travel editor at U.S. News and World Report, on Saturday welcomed Clara Josephine Cheney, who came in at 6lb 6oz "with a wisp of blond hair and is already a swaddle escape artist. Mom and baby are doing great." Pic ... Another pic

BIRTHDAY OF THE DAY: Chris Licht, executive producer/showrunner of "The Late Show with Stephen Colbert" and EVP of special programming at CBS Corp. A fun fact about Chris: "I was born in Switzerland, spoke only French until I was 5. Then, failed French in 7th grade." Playbook Plus Q&A

BIRTHDAYS: Hilary Rosen (hat tip: Tammy Haddad) ... Stephanie Cutter, co-founder and partner at Precision Strategies and an Obama alum ... former Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour is 71 ... Guy Harrison, partner at OnMessage Inc. (h/t birthday boy Kurt Bardella) ... Brett O'Donnell ... Jonathan Prince, policy and strategy at Spotify, is 51 (h/t Patrick Steel) ... Jerry Zremski (h/ts Tim Burger) ... Jon Reedy ... WSJ's Warren Strobel is 56 ... House Chief Deputy Whip Patrick McHenry (R-N.C.) is 44 ... Billy Oorbeek is 43 ... Adam Parkhomenko (h/t Bert Kaufman) ... Casey Phillips ... Helen Milby ... NAM's Chris Moore ... Microsoft's Trey Herr ... former Rep. John Shadegg (R-Ariz.) is 69 ...
 Politico Europe's Delcker Janosch ... James Walkinshaw ... Patrick Dolan ... Jeff Grappone (h/t Liz Johnson) ... FiscalNote's Mallory Howe (h/t David Molina) ... CPI's Michael Beckel (h/t Dave Levinthal) ... Allen Fagin is 69 ... Anne Heiligenstein ... 

... Kurt Bardella (h/t Monica Medina) ... Geoffrey Baum ... Rebecca Chatterjee ... Martha-Elena Lopez ... Sandy Smith is 6-0 (h/t Curtis Tate) ... former Rep. Ed Feighan (D-Ohio) is 71 (h/t Paul Equale) ... Jethro Lloyd ... Jennie Bragg of USGLC ... Z&eacute;lie Kasten ... Ross Barkan ... Donovan Harrell ... Harrison Price ... Miriam Calderone (hubby tip: Michael) ... Samantha (Friedman) Kupferman ... Raphael Shepard ... Ferdous Al-Faruque ... Mike Ceraso ... Scott Price ... Tom Basile ... Chavia Groveman ... McClatchy's Jessica Huff, who recently got married -- pic ... Amy McCorquodale ... Soner Olmezyaşar ... Lindsay Kalter ... Jenna Lamond ... Rachel Petri ... Marilyn Machlowitz ...
 Alice Henriques ... Bill Farrar ... Clint Tanner ... Cheryl Clark DeHaan ... Christopher Gable ... Tim Murphy ... Scott Hennen ... Brian Dodge ... Kris Pratt ... Phoebe Kilgour ... John Norquist ... Christopher Mills ... Grace Sandretti ... Sarah Scanlon (h/ts Teresa Vilmain)
       
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