Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score, presented by AARP: The big super PAC donors — Alaska Gov. Walker drops reelection bid — Republicans eye 2 Democratic seats in Minnesota
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
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Date: Mon, 22 Oct 2018 08:03:01 -0600
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10/22/2018 10:00 AM EDT
        
By ZACH MONTELLARO ([email-masked]; @ZachMontellaro)

        
Editor's Note: This edition of Free Morning Score is published weekdays at 10 a.m. POLITICO Pro Campaigns subscribers hold exclusive early access to the newsletter each morning at 6 a.m. To learn more about POLITICO Pro's comprehensive policy intelligence coverage, policy tools and services, click here. 
          THE TOPLINES         
MORE FEC FILINGS - Saturday marked the FEC deadline for monthly filers, which included most of the committees and some major super PACs. The roundup, which includes fundraising and spending for the month of September:

- The Senate Leadership Fund brought in a bit under $37.6 million in September, included a combined $25 million from Sheldon and Miriam Adelson. One Nation kicked in $6.8 million, banker Andy Beal gave $1 million, businessman Robert Rowling gave $1 million while his company gave an additional $1 million, and Texas developer Hillwood also gave $1 million. SLF spent $31.3 million and has $46.8 million cash on hand.

- Senate Majority PAC raised $17.7 million in the month. That includes a $2 million donation from hedge fund manager James Simons, $1 million each from Democratic fundraiser Marsha Laufer and Facebook co-founder Dustin Moskovitz and $2 million from the union LIUNA's super PAC. The group spent a bit under $8 million and had $38.9 cash on hand.

- House Majority PAC brought in $14.9 million, which includes $2.7 million from Simons, $2 million from the Laborers' International Union PAC, and $2 million total from Deborah Simon and Cynthia Simon-Skjodt (a pair of sisters our own Maggie Severns profiled in September). HMP spent $12.5 million and has $34.6 million cash on hand.

- The DCCC raised $22.1 million in the month, spent $61.3 million and has $30.7 million.

- The NRCC raised $12.5 million, spent $33.1 million and has just under $44 million cash on hand, per its filing.

- The NRSC raised $23.4 million, spent $19.5 million and has $15.6 million cash on hand, per its filing. This includes $12 million in loans.

- The DSCC raised $10.6 million, spent $20.7 million and has $22.4 million cash on hand, per its filing.

- The RNC raised $26.2 million, spent $16.7 million and has $51.3 million cash on hand, per its filing.

- The DNC raised $9.8 million, spent $7.5 million and has $10.3 million cash on hand, per its filing.

Some donor nuggets:

- Former NYC Mayor Michael Bloomberg gave more than $5 million to his own Independence USA PAC and $1.5 million to Planned Parenthood Votes.

- Facebook's Sheryl Sandberg gave $100,000 to Women Vote!, EMILY's List's super PAC. Prominent computer scientist Scott Shenker and businesswoman and philanthropist Pat Stryker both gave $500,000. Filmmaker Steven Spielberg gave $50,000.

- Club for Growth Action got $1 million from venture capitalist Peter Thiel and just under $1 million from shipping magnate Richard Uihlein.

Good Monday morning. Two candidates competing for a Vermont state House seat performed a duet together. Can't wait for the ensemble performance from the 2020 Democratic presidential field. As always, email me at [email-masked] or DM me at @ZachMontellaro.

Email the great Campaign Pro team at [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked] and [email-masked]. Follow them on Twitter: @PoliticoScott @ec_schneider, @JamesArkin and @DanielStrauss4.

Days until the 2018 election: 15

** Presented by AARP: Americans 50 and over are the most powerful voting bloc. Candidates should pay attention to them and the issues they care about. That's why POLITICO Focus and AARP brought together 50-plus voters in PA-18, the battleground Congressional district, to hear what's on their mind. Watch now. http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=c8164aeabe06123c389f63243cc20b6c31df1ce40eabeb24681dc6768168941fe597dd30cc4ff4e40271ec7deff81bfe **

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          IN THE TRENCHES         
ALASKA SHAKEUP - Just days after his lieutenant governor abruptly resigned, Alaska's independent Gov. Bill Walker announced he would no longer seek re-election. The outgoing governor endorsed former Democratic Sen. Mark Begich in the now-two man race against Republican Mike Dunleavy. "The determination was made that, at this point, Begich has the better odds," Walker said, according to the the Anchorage Daily News' Tegan Hanlon and Annie Zak. One major holdup? Walker's ticket will remain on the ballot.

PLAYING OFFENSE - Republicans have turned to two Minnesota districts as potential pickups, as whispers of the party keeping the House pick up. Campaign Pro's Elena Schneider from Mankato, Minn.: "Winning those districts would mean that Democrats have to beat another couple of incumbent Republicans elsewhere in the country, potentially making the difference on a close election night. And even as many of those Republicans try to stem shrinking GOP support in the suburbs in the Trump era, [Republican Jim] Hagedorn is hoping that he can build on the president's supercharged rural appeal in 2016, when Trump carried Minnesota's 1st District by double-digits while Democratic Rep. Tim Walz narrowly
 won reelection. 'This is a miniature national election,' Hagedorn said in an interview with POLITICO before the debate. 'We've approached it this way the entire time ... we're running on national issues.'"

DAMAGE CONTROL - Democrats' slim chances of taking the Senate have become even slimmer. Campaign Pro's James Arkin's dispatch on the state of the map: "It's a far cry from a month ago, when Democrats saw a path to the majority opening wider as several battleground races trended in their direction. But in recent weeks, Sen. Heidi Heitkamp's (D-N.D.) seat has slipped away and looks likely to be a Republican pickup, and Democrats have not opened advantages in any of the three GOP-held seats where they're on offense, instead trailing in public polling in Nevada and Tennessee. Democrats would have to turn around both of those races, carry Arizona, and then sweep largely conservative battleground
 races featuring incumbent Democrats - Missouri, Florida, Indiana, Montana and West Virginia - to win the majority, a prospect several party strategists referred to as picking up an 'inside straight' - a low-odds poker hand."

DEEP DIVES - Republican Josh Hawley's tenure as Missouri's attorney general was under the microscope in a pair of stories. The St. Louis Post-Dispatch's Jack Suntrup writes that "critics say Hawley's administration bled staffers and dedicated limited resources to firing salvos toward the federal government. They say he carried a lighter load than his predecessors," noting that "in 2017, Hawley's first year, 98 employees left the attorney general's office, according to state data obtained by the Post-Dispatch. The rate of departures has not slowed since then." Meanwhile, The New York Times' Danny Hakim reported that "a review of public records and internal documents, as well as interviews
 with current and former employees, reveals a chaotic tenure as attorney general that has been costly for state taxpayers. Judges have criticized the office over its slow pace of discovery, and Mr. Hawley's staff had to renege on a settlement in a high-profile civil case."

- Hawley, who has criticized Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill for using a private plane, has also flown on a private plane during the campaign, POLITICO's Burgess Everett and Elana Schor reported.

VIVA LAS VEGAS - Nevada was once seen as one of the best Senate pickup opportunities for Democrats. Now, the party is putting all its cards on the table to try to beat Republican Sen. Dean Heller. James' dispatch from Las Vegas: "Republicans are increasingly bullish about his chances to pull out a win - even as Democrats nationally challenge for control of the House. 

"National Democrats are flocking to Nevada to prevent a massive disappointment in a state that has gone blue in three successive presidential elections - but proven tougher for the party in midterm years. Former President Barack Obama is headlining a rally for [Democratic Rep. Jacky] Rosen and the entire Democratic ticket Monday afternoon, just after ex-Vice President Joe Biden rallied at the local Culinary Union headquarters on Saturday, the first day of early voting. Sen. Bernie Sanders will campaign for the congresswoman later this week. 

"Republicans countered with a visit this weekend from President Donald Trump, who blistered Rosen and Democrats in the remote northern city of Elko, a rural area where high Republican turnout could be a major boost for Heller."

- Rosen raised nearly $5.1 million from Oct. 1-17, The Hill's Max Greenwood reported (reminder that the pre-general election filing deadline is Thursday).

IN KIND DONATION - Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) and other red-state Democrats believe they were handed a gift from Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell. POLITICO's Burgess Everett from Martinsburg, W.Va.: "In a triumphant post-Kavanaugh media tour last week, the Kentucky Republican waxed about his regret over the missed opportunity to repeal Obamacare and the need to reform entitlement programs to rein in the federal deficit. Social Security, Medicaid and Medicare are vital to West Virginia. And in an interview on Saturday as he prepared for the annual Apple Harvest Parade, Manchin called McConnell's comments 'absolutely ridiculous' and said his Republican opponent, Attorney General Patrick
 Morrisey, would vote to curtail benefits 'in a heartbeat.'"

POLLS POLLS POLLS - In Arizona, GOP Rep. Martha McSally narrowly leads Democratic Rep. Kyrsten Sinema in a poll from Sienna/NYT Upshot. In the poll, McSally is up 48 percent to 46 percent. The poll surveyed 606 likely voters from Oct. 15-19.

- Democrats are up in two Florida statewide races. In a new CNN/SSRS poll, Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson leads GOP Gov. Rick Scott, 50 percent to 45 percent. In the gubernatorial race, Democrat Andrew Gillum led former GOP Rep. Ron DeSantis, 54 percent to 42 percent (Gillum and DeSantis also met for a contentious CNN debate Sunday night). The survey polled 759 likely voters from Oct. 16-20. (A note of caution: This poll has had larger leads for both Democrats than other recent public polling.)

- In the Minnesota gubernatorial race, Democratic Rep. Tim Walz is up over Jeff Johnson. The MPR/Star Tribune poll conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling has Walz leading, 45 percent to 39 percent. The poll surveyed 800 likely voters from Oct. 15-17.

TRIAGE ALERT - The NRCC's IE arm is abandoning GOP Rep. Mike Coffman in CO-06, Elena reported. The committee pulled about $1 million from the district. A hint for where the money could be going? "The NRCC, meanwhile, is adding about $1.5 million in broadcast and cable TV ads in Miami to boost Republican Maria Elvira Salazar".

- The RGA's Rhode Island affiliate has started canceling reservations in the state, WPRI's Ted Nesi reported: "A source familiar with media buying orders said Rhode Island Forward had canceled its ad buys for the second-to-last week of the race but still had time reserved for the final week in case the situation changes." 

OBAMA ON THE TRAIL - Former President Barack Obama will host a rally on Friday in Wisconsin, the state Democratic Party announced. He'll be joined by Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin, gubernatorial candidate Tony Evers, Rep. Gwen Moore and congressional candidates Randy Bryce and Dan Kohl. 

TRUMP ON THE TRAIL - More rallies on President Donald Trump's extensive schedule ahead of the midterms: The president will be in Charlotte, N.C., for a rally Friday supporting Mark Harris in NC-09, via WECT. Meanwhile, the Belleville News-Democrat reported that the president will rally in Murphysboro, Ill., for GOP Rep. Mike Bost on Saturday.

- Skipping Trump's rally tonight in Houston? GOP Rep. John Culberson, who said he will be at a pre-scheduled "neighborhood meeting," The Washington Examiner's Al Weaver reported.

FIRST IN SCORE - ON THE AIRWAVES - The Congressional Leadership Fund is going up with a new ad in ME-02, a rare purely positive spot from the group. The ad praises GOP Rep. Bruce Poliquin. "Bruce Poliquin breaks ranks with his own party in order to get legislation passed to benefit Maine," the ad says, referring to Poliquin's efforts to kill an amendment that would've allowed the military to purchase clothing and shoes made outside of the U.S. "Poliquin worked across the aisle to make sure sneakers for our troops are American-made."

COALITION BUILDING - In Florida, Democrats are trying to turn out black voters to win in the swing state now and start making plans for 2020. NBC News' Benjy Sarlin: "If a spike in black turnout, which typically tails off in midterm elections, powers Gillum, Sen. Bill Nelson and down-ballot Democrats to victory in Florida in just over two weeks, the impact will resonate beyond the state. The results could be proof-of-concept for a 2020 presidential campaign that tacks left on policy and inspires young and minority voters versus a centrist approach aimed more at wooing older whites away from President Donald Trump. ... Returning to 2012 levels of black support would turn Florida blue in 2020
 - along with Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina and Georgia - even if Trump maintained similar margins with all other voting groups, according to an analysis by demographic experts Robert Griffin, Ruy Teixeira and William H. Frey."

- BlackPAC will spend $8 million to mobilize black voters in Tennessee, Missouri, Florida, Indiana, Nevada and Georgia, The Washington Post's Vanessa Williams reported.

2020 WATCH - Add another name to the big board: Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (D-Hawaii) is mulling a run for president, POLITICO's Alex Thompson reported. Alex wrote than an adviser to Gabbard has been putting out feelers for staffers.

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "Well I would amend that now - I would vote to convict," Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) on his past comments on Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) to The Washington Post, where he said "If you killed Ted Cruz on the floor of the Senate, and the trial was in the Senate, nobody would convict you."

** Presented by AARP: If candidates want to win in November they need to listen to 50-plus voters. More Americans 50 and over vote than any other voting bloc and the issues they care about including Medicare, Social Security, support for family caregivers and prescription drug costs, are all on the line. They're frustrated with broken government, fed up with politicians who would rather fight than get results, and are planning to turn out on election day. That's why POLITICO Focus and AARP brought together 50-plus voters in PA-18, the battleground Congressional district, to hear what's on their mind. Watch now and see it for yourself. http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=c8164aeabe06123c389f63243cc20b6c31df1ce40eabeb24681dc6768168941fe597dd30cc4ff4e40271ec7deff81bfe **
    
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