Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score, presented by AARP: The state of the airwaves with 2 weeks remaining — Trump missing from Dems’ closing House message — Rare Mississippi poll puts Senate race on track to a runoff
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
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Date: Wed, 24 Oct 2018 08:02:13 -0600
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10/24/2018 10:00 AM EDT
        
By ZACH MONTELLARO ([email-masked]; @ZachMontellaro)

        
Editor's Note: This edition of Free Morning Score is published weekdays at 10 a.m. POLITICO Pro Campaigns subscribers hold exclusive early access to the newsletter each morning at 6 a.m. To learn more about POLITICO Pro's comprehensive policy intelligence coverage, policy tools and services, click here. 
          THE TOPLINES         
THE AIRWAVES, 2 WEEKS OUT - Campaigns and outside groups debuted more than 130 House, Senate and gubernatorial ads across the country on Tuesday, and I watched all of them (hold your applause, please). What emerges is fairly consistent messaging from Democrats and Republicans competing for both chambers.

In the Senate, expect to see ads that highlight state-specific issues much more frequently than in House races. Head on down to Florida: Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson deployed talking frogs to hit GOP Gov. Rick Scott over the state's algae crisis, while Scott's campaign released a Spanish-language ad highlighting Scott's response to help Puerto Rico following Hurricane Maria (notably, the ad says Scott confronted President Donald Trump). 

But when there's an unifying message across the states, Democrats hone in on health care (surprise surprise!). A sampling of ads released Tuesday show their closing message is all about improving the health system - from Democratic Sen. Amy Klobuchar pledging to fight high pharmaceutical costs in Minnesota to Senate Majority PAC dropping an ad in West Virginia tying Republican Patrick Morrisey to the opioid crisis.

Meanwhile, Republicans fighting for the Senate cast Democrats as too liberal and too extreme for the state they represent. "All the makeup in Montana can't hide Jon Tester's liberal record," declares an ad from Restoration PAC (which is largely funded by Richard Uihlein) in Montana. A Nevada ad from Senate Leadership Fund says Democratic Rep. Jacky Rosen is easily mistaken for House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, hitting her on taxes and immigration.

In the House, Republicans are invoking the past (and perhaps future) speaker across the map. "Stop the San Francisco liberals Harder and Pelosi from stealing our congressional seat," says an ad from GOP Rep. Jeff Denham in CA-10, targeting Democrat Josh Harder. Some ads go a step further, seeking to tie Democratic candidates and the Democratic Party to "mobs." Another theme is the GOP pushing back against health care messaging, like the new ad from GOP Rep. Dave Brat in VA-07, where he's being challenged by Democrat Abigail Spanberger. "What she's really doing is hiding from the failure of Obamacare and her own health care plan," Brat says in the ad.

And Democrats remain fairly unmoved in their health care messaging, hammering away at Republicans over pre-existing conditions, while saying the GOP is beholden to special interests. GOP Rep. Brian Mast "has taken drug and insurance money and voted to make your health care premiums higher," an ad from Lauren Baer in FL-18 said. GOP Rep. Claudia Tenney "stood with the corporate special interests ... voting to cut protections for pre-existing conditions," a LCV Victory Fund ad in NY-22 said. Underlining this is a promise they'll buck "special interests." "I'm running for Congress to serve you, no one else," Democrat Antonio Delgado in NY-19 said in his ad.

One theme you'll notice is missing from the ads, at least on the House Democratic side? President Donald Trump. Campaign Pro's Elena Schneider: "The president's policies and approval rating are still huge factors in the Democratic drive to retake the majority. But Trump is already so ingrained in voters' minds - and their impressions of their members of Congress - that Democrats aren't pummeling Republicans with the same quantity of ads linking them to Trump as they did in 2016. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and House Majority PAC, the biggest Democratic outside spenders in House races, aired 65 Trump-themed TV ads in more than 20 key districts in the final weeks of the
 2016 election, according to Advertising Analytics. So far in October 2018, the groups have aired just 14 Trump-themed ads in eight districts."

Some fun ads to close this out: Rep. Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn.) picks up the endorsement of racing legend Darrell Waltrip in her Senate race, Sen. Heidi Heitkamp (D-N.D.) features Kegger the dog (a great dog name) and Democrat MJ Hegar in TX-31 calls back to her viral ad.

Good Wednesday morning. Elena talks to POLITICO's Eugene Daniels about the power of white suburban voters in the newest episode of our "Midterm View" video series. Check it out! As always, email me at [email-masked] or DM me at @ZachMontellaro.

Email the great Campaign Pro team at [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked] and [email-masked]. Follow them on Twitter: @PoliticoScott @ec_schneider, @JamesArkin and @DanielStrauss4.

Days until the 2018 election: 13

** Presented by AARP: Americans 50 and over are the most powerful voting bloc. Candidates should pay attention to them and the issues they care about. That's why POLITICO Focus and AARP brought together 50-plus voters in PA-18, the battleground Congressional district, to hear what's on their mind. Watch now. http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=3de70cc5136601e7b16a5152e609066800de9ea59ee11463b4fcbb44dd315f25257b1beebf6f035162c0dcc39c8a1e03 **

PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP SAYS A RED WAVE IS COMING ON ELECTION DAY. Is he right, or will the tide turn blue? Compete against the nation's top political minds in the POLITICO Playbook Election Challenge, by correctly picking the winning candidates in some of the most competitive House, Senate and gubernatorial races in the country. Win awesome prizes and eternal bragging rights. Sign up today: Visit politico.com/playbookelectionchallenge to play.
          IN THE TRENCHES         
POLLS POLLS POLLS - Democrat Andrew Gillum is up over former GOP Rep. Ron DeSantis in a new Florida gubernatorial poll. The Quinnipiac University poll had Gillum leading, 52 percent to 46 percent. The poll surveyed 1,161 likely voters from Oct. 17-21.

- A new CA-48 poll has the race between GOP Rep. Dana Rohrabacher and Democrat Harley Rouda very close. The Monmouth University poll has Rohrabacher up, 50 percent to 48 percent, in its standard midterm model. In a Democratic surge model, Rouda leads 50 percent to 48 percent and in a low turnout model, Rohrabacher is up 52 percent to 46 percent. The poll was conducted from Oct. 17-21 and surveyed 372 likely voters. 

- A new live caller poll in Indiana has Republican Mike Braun leading Democratic Sen. Joe Donnelly. The IndyPolitics/Mason Strategies poll has Braun leading, 47 percent to 43 percent. It was in the field from Oct. 15-20 and surveyed 600 likely voters.

- The rare Mississippi special election poll has the race angling toward a runoff. The NBC News/Marist poll finds Republican Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith leading Democrat Mike Espy and Republican Chris McDaniel, 38 percent to 29 percent to 15 percent in a three way race (a candidate must get 50 percent and one vote to avoid a runoff). In a runoff between Hyde-Smith and Espy, she leads 50 percent to 36 percent. Espy beats McDaniel in a theoretical runoff, 43 percent to 36 percent. The poll was in the field from Oct. 13-18 and surveyed 511 likely voters.

THE ROOM WHERE IT HAPPENED? - Gillum, the mayor of Tallahassee, reportedly accepted tickets to the popular Broadway show Hamilton from an undercover FBI agent who was probing Tallahassee's economic development agency, according to documents turned over to the state ethics commission. POLITICO Florida's Matt Dixon and Arek Sarkissian: "The records are from Adam Corey, a lobbyist and longtime ally of Gillum. The commission subpoenaed the documents as part of its investigation into trips Gillum and Corey took to New York and Costa Rica.

"Also on the August 2016 New York trip was a man identified as Mike Miller, a person now believed to be an FBI agent leading an investigation into Tallahassee's Community Redevelopment Agency. Gillum has not publicly been accused of wrongdoing as part of that probe, but the cloud of the investigation has hung over his campaign." Here's a timeline of events from Arek.

- Sticking with Florida: Scott has been trailing Nelson in recent public polls, but his team has been pushing back. POLITICO Florida's Marc Caputo: "His campaign excoriated Quinnipiac University's survey Monday showing Nelson with a large lead of 6 points, and argued instead that the governor is in fact leading by 5 points. The poll-truthing, however, revealed a deeper concern that's long gnawed at some Republicans - including GOP donors from Scott's well-heeled hometown of Naples: Scott should be doing far better given his cash advantage over Nelson."

ON THE AIRWAVES - FIRST IN SCORE - The Congressional Leadership Fund is going up with three new ads. The first ad hits Democrat Xochitl Torres Small in NM-02, tying her to Pelosi. "Delivering for Pelosi, a disaster for New Mexico," the ad says. The second ad hits Democrat Gina Ortiz Jones in TX-23 over taxes. "Liberal Gina Jones opposes middle-class tax cuts that save $2,000 a year for Texas families," the ad says. "But Jones got caught taking a big tax break on her Washington, D.C. home." The third ad, in OH-01, contrasts GOP Rep. Steve Chabot to Democrat Aftab Pureval. "Steve Chabot cut middle-class taxes, saving Ohio families twenty-five hundred dollars," the ad says. "Pureval joined
 Nancy Pelosi to oppose the middle-class tax cut."

- CLF added $180,000 to NY-24 for the last week of the campaign, a source familiar with the buy tells Elena. CLF also reserved TV ads for the final two weeks in Virginia's 5th District, according to another source.

THE CASH DASH - The RNC is sending a last-minute cash infusion of $3.5 million each to the NRCC and NRSC, POLITICO's Alex Isenstadt reported. 

- Two Senate candidates recently kicked in millions to fuel their bid. Florida's Scott gave almost $7.5 million to his campaign per a Tuesday filing, while former Democratic Gov. Phil Bredesen gave himself $2 million for his Tennessee bid per a Sunday filing.

VOTER REGISTRATION - Snapchat helped register 418,000 people to vote, The New York Times' Cecilia Kang reported. That includes about 79,000 in Texas, 29,000 in Florida, 23,000 in Georgia and 18,000 in Ohio.

STARS OF THE SHOW - Top White House staffers are a big draw for Republicans on the trail. POLITICO's Annie Karni: "The West Wing has been flooded with requests from campaigns and from the National Republican Congressional Committee for some of its most well-known staffers - along with the president's daughter, Ivanka - to host closed-door fundraisers, headline rallies, make appearances at donor retreats, and record robocalls in the Republican effort to hold onto the House and statehouses across the country, White House officials said. 'Republicans love the most visible people who are constantly doing battle with the people they hate the most, which is the media,' said Kentucky Republican
 strategist Scott Jennings ... ."

OBAMA ON THE TRAIL - Former President Barack Obama will headline a rally in Detroit on Friday. Obama-era AG Eric Holder will also attend, along with Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow, gubernatorial candidate Gretchen Whitmer and congressional candidates.

GEORGIA ON HIS MIND - Republican Brian Kemp, who is running for governor and is currently state secretary of state, said the amount of absentee ballots from Democrats "continues to concern us, especially if everybody uses and exercises their right to vote - which they absolutely can - and mail those ballots in, we gotta have heavy turnout to offset that," in a recording leaked from a private donor event, Rolling Stone's Jamil Smith reported. The Atlanta Journal-Constitution reported that Democrats renewed their calls for him to step down as secretary of state while running for governor, and his campaign had no comment on the recording to the AJC.

- Kemp and Democrat Stacey Abrams also met for their first televised debate, where voting rights took center stage, Campaign Pro's Daniel Strauss reported.

FAMILY FEUD - In what's now a trend this cycle, families don't always get along. Twelve members of Republican Adam Laxalt's extended family penned a Reno Gazette Journal op-ed saying voters shouldn't back him for Nevada governor. Twenty-two members of the extended Laxalt clan then wrote an RGJ op-ed supporting him.

2020 WATCH - Trump has railed against SIlicon Valley. And for his re-election, he's planning to avoid the tech giants as much as possible. POLITICO's Alex Thompson: "The emerging tech strategy, according to four officials involved in Trump's reelection campaign, will reduce its reliance on Big Tech platforms - which were the dominant messaging channels in 2016 - to get the president's message out. The president's team instead is planning to go around the platforms as much as possible and reach supporters directly, making use of old-school text messaging."

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "'Do you know how many arenas I've beaten Elton John's record?'" Rep. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.) recalling what Trump said about crowd sizes for his rallies, via The New York Times.

** Presented by AARP: If candidates want to win in November they need to listen to 50-plus voters. More Americans 50 and over vote than any other voting bloc and the issues they care about including Medicare, Social Security, support for family caregivers and prescription drug costs, are all on the line. They're frustrated with broken government, fed up with politicians who would rather fight than get results, and are planning to turn out on election day. That's why POLITICO Focus and AARP brought together 50-plus voters in PA-18, the battleground Congressional district, to hear what's on their mind. Watch now and see it for yourself. http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=3de70cc5136601e7b16a5152e609066800de9ea59ee11463b4fcbb44dd315f25257b1beebf6f035162c0dcc39c8a1e03 **
    
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