Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score, presented by AARP: Republicans swoop in to defend incumbents — Polls show tight gubernatorial races in S.D., Ga. — GOP tries to flip script on health care, but claims ring hollow
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
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Date: Thu, 25 Oct 2018 08:02:18 -0600
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10/25/2018 10:00 AM EDT
        
By ZACH MONTELLARO ([email-masked]; @ZachMontellaro)

        
Editor's Note: This edition of Free Morning Score is published weekdays at 10 a.m. POLITICO Pro Campaigns subscribers hold exclusive early access to the newsletter each morning at 6 a.m. To learn more about POLITICO Pro's comprehensive policy intelligence coverage, policy tools and services, click here. 
          THE TOPLINES         
THE BATTLEGROUND - Republican outside groups, still solidly on the defensive in the battle for the House, have committed millions in the final two weeks to shore up members. POLITICO's Rachael Bade and Elena Schneider: "Two weeks out from Election Day, a constellation of groups ... are pouring millions of dollars into TV ads to help GOP members in Florida, Georgia, Michigan, New York, North Carolina and Virginia. It's a last-minute effort that Republican operatives say will shore up lawmakers in seats that once leaned Republican but have become increasingly competitive.

"It's also a troubling sign for the GOP's prospects of keeping the House. Most of Republicans' new defensive fortifications are coming in districts where the GOP has won easily in the past and has been expected to do so again in 2018, and Democrats have not considered them top targets or must-wins on their path to flip 23 seats and retake the House majority. ...

"The NRCC jumped into a trio of suburban seats this week where Democrats raised more money than Republican incumbents last quarter. The GOP House committee dumped $1.4 million into the northern Atlanta suburbs to support GOP Rep. Karen Handel. ... The NRCC also threw down $600,000 apiece to help Rep. Ted Budd (R-N.C.) on Wednesday and the same amount for Rep. Brian Mast (R-Fla.). [Congressional Leadership Fund] is simultaneously swooping in to another three districts, blitzing TV air waves with ads benefiting Reps. John Katko (R-N.Y) and Fred Upton (R-Mich.) and open-seat contender Denver Riggleman, the Republican running to replace retiring Rep. Tom Garrett (R-Va.). America First Action is
 also going up in Ohio's 12th District, the Republican-leaning seat narrowly won by GOP Rep. Troy Balderson in a closely watched August special election. ...

"CLF executive director Corry Bliss pushed back on that assertion and expressed confidence that all the incumbents in question would win. He downplayed the GOP's new ad buys as 'maintenance' - spending to counter liberal outside groups flooding the zone with their own money."

- America First Action also announced just over $3 million in new spending: $200,000 in ME-02, $650,000 in MI-08, $100,000 in MI-11, $400,000 in MN-01, $1 million in MN-08 and $700,000 in TX-32. The PAC has spent previously in all those districts.

Good Thursday morning. As always, email me at [email-masked] or DM me at @ZachMontellaro.

Email the great Campaign Pro team at [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked] and [email-masked]. Follow them on Twitter: @PoliticoScott @ec_schneider, @JamesArkin and @DanielStrauss4.

Days until the 2018 election: 12

** Presented by AARP: Americans 50 and over are the most powerful voting bloc. Candidates should pay attention to them and the issues they care about. That's why POLITICO Focus and AARP brought together 50-plus voters in PA-18, the battleground Congressional district, to hear what's on their mind. Watch now. http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=ed6a0fc3bc2909117d42979b34a27188f1482fc75505398760c87c55caaccf9318727a5575cb4e58223829c0c3d0f5d5 **

YOUR 2018 MIDTERMS HQ: The countdown is on. Policy professionals know the 2018 midterms represent more than keeping track of winners and losers. The outcome of high-stake contests could dramatically alter the course of policymaking across the country. Go beyond election night with POLITICO Pro's 2018 Midterms HQ. Read More.

PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP SAYS A RED WAVE IS COMING ON ELECTION DAY. Is he right, or will the tide turn blue? Compete against the nation's top political minds in the POLITICO Playbook Election Challenge, by correctly picking the winning candidates in some of the most competitive House, Senate and gubernatorial races in the country. Win awesome prizes and eternal bragging rights. Sign up today: Visit politico.com/playbookelectionchallenge to play.
          IN THE TRENCHES         
POLLS POLLS POLLS - Republican Brian Kemp and Democrat Stacey Abrams are statistically tied in the Georgia gubernatorial race. In a new NBC News/Marist poll, Kemp has 46 percent to Abrams' 45 percent, while Libertarian Ted Metz gets 4 percent. The poll surveyed 554 likely voters from Oct. 14-18.

- GOP Rep. Claudia Tenney and Democrat Anthony Brindisi are neck-and-neck in a new NY-22 poll. The Spectrum News/Syracuse.com/Siena College poll had Brindisi at 46 percent, to Tenney's 45 percent. The poll surveyed 501 likely voters from Oct. 15-18.

- A new poll in South Dakota has the gubernatorial race between GOP Rep. Kristi Noem and Democrat Billie Sutton all tied up. The Argus Leader/KELO poll conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling has each candidate with 45 percent. It surveyed 500 likely voters from Oct. 18-22.

- Democratic Sen. Bob Menendez remains ahead of his Republican challenger Bob Hugin in New Jersey. In a Rutgers-Eagleton poll, Menendez leads, 51 percent to 46 percent. The poll surveyed 496 likely voters from Oct. 12-19.

CLOSING MESSAGE - The president has tried to turn health care against Democrats, tweeting, "Republicans will totally protect people with Pre-Existing Conditions, Democrats will not!" However, it's his own administration that's been chipping away at the Affordable Care Act, which guaranteed protections for pre-existing conditions. POLITICO's Dan Diamond: "Public health experts say his claims are inaccurate, given his administration's moves to roll back the Affordable Care Act's safeguards for people for pre-existing conditions. The administration has taken steps to promote the sale of skinnier health coverage that doesn't comply with Obamacare's requirements and could lack protections for
 sick people and has joined a lawsuit seeking to abolish the health care law."

- House Republicans are also worried that the effort to repeal Obamacare may cost them in November. POLITICO's Rachael Bade and Elana Schor: "[O]n a conference call with GOP leaders last week, [GOP Rep. Glenn] Grothman pleaded with party leaders to invest in a nationwide TV ad that could run in competitive districts like his, defending the House GOP's Obamacare repeal bill that passed the chamber last year, according to three sources on the call. You're on your own, was the response. It would be too expensive, Republican leaders told Grothman.

"Republicans have tried to fend off the attacks by accusing Democrats of lying. ... But those claims ring hollow given what Republicans voted for last year. The House bill allowed states to opt out of provisions protecting the elderly and the sick from higher premiums in hopes of lowering costs for everyone else."

NOT THAT KIND! - Missouri Sen. Claire McCaskill is a Democrat. But she's not one of "those crazy Democrats," according to a radio ad from her campaign, spotted by CNN's Rebecca Berg. "The ad features two middle-aged men discussing the Senate race between McCaskill and state Attorney General Josh Hawley, a Republican, whom the narrators describe as 'a man in a hurry,'" Berg writes. "'Yep,' the second man chimes in, 'and Claire's not one of those crazy Democrats. She works right in the middle and finds compromise.'" Here's the ad, which was circulated by the NRSC.

ALASKA SHAKEUP - Now that independent Gov. Bill Walker has dropped out, how is the two-man race between Republican Mike Dunleavy, who was the presumed front-runner, and former Democratic Sen. Mark Begich shaping up? Campaign Pro's Daniel Strauss: "Republicans hope that once the chaos dies down, Dunleavy will regain full command of the race. ... Begich still faces an 'uphill battle, but it was a little more climbable than it was a week ago,' said Andrew Halcro, a former state lawmaker who ran for governor in 2006. ...

"With the incumbent governor out of the race, Begich has quickly consolidated establishment support on the left, after facing initial criticism for running against Walker. The Alaska AFL-CIO, the state's largest union, jumped onboard Begich's campaign, as has the state chapter of the National Education Association. ... The campaign is turning on funding for state programs, especially Medicaid. When Walker announced he was suspending his campaign, he specifically cited protecting the expansion of Medicaid as a reason he wanted to see votes against Dunleavy combined under one banner in the election."

FEC FILING FUN - Some quick notes from recent FEC filings: 

- Club for Growth Action reported raising $2.2 million in its pre-general election filing, including $1.3 million from Jeff Yass. It has $3.4 million cash on hand. (Reminder: The deadline is today for pre-general election filings.)

- Women Vote!, the super PAC affiliated with EMILY's List, raised $11.2 million - about half of which came from EMILY's List - and spent almost all of it, per its pre-general. It has $1.5 million on hand.

- VoteVets raised about $7 million, including $1.35 million from former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg, per its pre-general. It has $1.8 million cash on hand.

- Hugin gave $2.5 million to his campaign, per a 48-hour report.

- Democrat Angie Craig in MN-02 gave $200,000 to herself, per a 48-hour report, while Democrat Dan McCready in NC-09 loaned his campaign $500,000, per a 48-hour report.

DEBATE FIREWORKS - The final Florida gubernatorial debate between former GOP Rep. Ron DeSantis and Democrat Andrew Gillum was pure fireworks. Our own Marc Caputo probably summed it up best in a tweet: "If these two guys had this debate at a bar, fists would've flown." More from Marc: "Coming in the wake of new revelations about an FBI probe that has haunted Gillum's campaign - and a series of racial controversies and racist robocalls to which Gillum has sought to tie DeSantis - the debate spoke volumes about the state of the intense campaign for Florida governor less than two weeks before Election Day. For an hour, the candidates sparred over virtually every topic, from school spending to
 taxes to health care to immigration to gun control. But it was all overshadowed by charges and counter-charges over radical associations, neo-Nazis and misuse of tax money."

ON THE AIRWAVES - FIRST IN SCORE - Senate Majority PAC is going up with three new ads. The first ad lands in New Jersey, tying Hugin to the president. "The deciding vote for Donald Trump's agenda? That's big pharma executie Bob Hugin," the ad says. "Hugin even said he'd vote for right-wing judge Brett Kavanaugh." The second ad in Indiana features a cartoon of Democratic Sen. Joe Donnelly and Republican Mike Braun, focusing on outsourcing and taxes. "Mike imported Chinese autoparts and got really rich," the ad says. "Joe voted to penalize China." A third ad in Tennessee hits GOP Rep. Marsha Blackburn for missing votes. "Blackburn skipped more votes than 97 percent of Congress," the ad says.
 "Skipping critical votes to fight opioids and the war on terror while collecting her full salary and voting herself seven pay raises."

TRUMP ON THE TRAIL - At a Wisconsin rally, the president took no blame for the toxicity of politics after a series of explosive devices was sent to prominent Democrats and CNN's New York office on Wednesday, but he did place some blame on the media. He also praised Republican Senate candidate Leah Vukmir and GOP Gov. Scott Walker, the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel's Patrick Marley, Bill Glauber and Haley BeMiller reported.

AD ROUNDUP - James, Daniel and I watched Wednesday's ad releases (just about 60, so a slow day). Two ads to call out: the first from Democrat Gil Cisneros in CA-39, which featured former President Barack Obama praising him at a rally, showing just how far public opinion on the former commander in chief has moved. The second, from the NRSC, criticizes Donnelly for speaking out at an airport against the president's travel ban - one of the few mentions we can recall on that specific fight.

- Priorities USA launched its first TV buy of the cycle, a $2 million national buy hitting Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell over comments he made on entitlement programs, NBC News Heidi Przybyla reported.

THE TENNESSEE BATTLE - An interesting detail in the battle between former Democratic Gov. Phil Bredesen and GOP Rep. Marsha Blackburn to succeed Sen. Bob Corker (R-Tenn.) in The New York Times' Jonathan Martin's great piece: Corker reportedly "originally felt [Bredesen] out about running as an independent to avoid the party-label stigma".

CAMPAIGN TECH - The Trump campaign is leaning into text messages to contact supporters, as our own Alex Thompson reported yesterday. Some Democrats are embracing the practice too. Numbers from TIME's Katy Steinmetz: The app "Hustle, a trailblazer in the field, worked with about 100 campaigns in 2016. This year the number 'will be in the thousands' by Nov. 6, says CEO Roddy Lindsay, who once worked as a data scientist at Facebook. By 2020, other insiders predict, texting may be one of the main ways campaigns reach out to voters. The databases are already being built. Among Hustle's clients are most Democratic state parties. As is the Democratic National Committee, which earlier this year
 purchased the cellphone numbers of 94 million registered voters."

TURNOUT GAME - Planned Parenthood Votes, NextGen America and the Alliance for Youth Action announced they'll spend "six figures" to distribute a guide targeted to young voters in 18 states: Arizona, California, Colorado, Florida (an example targeted to voters in FL-26), Georgia, Iowa, Illinois, Michigan, Minnesota, Montana, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas, Virginia and Wisconsin. 

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "It's mostly the loss of the friendship, not what he did. Evidently he feels that he won't be calling anymore," Rep. Pete Sessions (R-Texas) reacting to Dallas Mayor Mike Rawlings (a Democrat) endorsing his opponent, via The Dallas Morning News.

** Presented by AARP: If candidates want to win in November they need to listen to 50-plus voters. More Americans 50 and over vote than any other voting bloc and the issues they care about including Medicare, Social Security, support for family caregivers and prescription drug costs, are all on the line. They're frustrated with broken government, fed up with politicians who would rather fight than get results, and are planning to turn out on election day. That's why POLITICO Focus and AARP brought together 50-plus voters in PA-18, the battleground Congressional district, to hear what's on their mind. Watch now and see it for yourself. http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=ed6a0fc3bc2909117d42979b34a27188f1482fc75505398760c87c55caaccf9318727a5575cb4e58223829c0c3d0f5d5 **
    
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