Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score, presented by AARP: The pre-general election numbers — White House plans Florida rescue plan — Illinois’ Pritzker becomes biggest self-funder ever
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
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Date: Fri, 26 Oct 2018 08:02:10 -0600
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10/26/2018 10:00 AM EDT
        
By ZACH MONTELLARO ([email-masked]; @ZachMontellaro)

        
Editor's Note: This edition of Free Morning Score is published weekdays at 10 a.m. POLITICO Pro Campaigns subscribers hold exclusive early access to the newsletter each morning at 6 a.m. To learn more about POLITICO Pro's comprehensive policy intelligence coverage, policy tools and services, click here. 
          THE TOPLINES         
PRE-GENERAL FILINGS ARE HERE! - Thursday was the deadline for everyone's pre-general election filings, giving us a peek at what campaigns, committees and PACs (super and anotherwise) brought in. Pre-general election reports cover Oct. 1-17 - and keep in mind that campaigns, super PACs and committees are also filing 48-hour reports now as well.

- The DNC raised $15.3 million per its filing, which includes a $2 million loan. It spent $11.1 million and has $14.5 million cash on hand.

- The RNC raised $13.7 million (with no loans), per its filing. It spent $30.8 million and has $34.2 million cash on hand.

- The DCCC raised $21.8 million, per its filing. It includes a $5 million loan. The committee spent $35.7 million in that timeframe and has $16.8 million cash on hand going into the final stretch of the election.

- The NRCC raised $11.1 million (with no loans) per its filing. The group spent $22 million in that time period and has just under $33 million cash on hand.

- The Democratic Governors Association brought in $17.8 million across all of its groups, my Campaign Pro colleague Daniel Strauss scooped.

- The NRSC raised $15.1 million (including a $5 million loan), spent $16.3 million and has $14.3 million cash on hand, per its FEC filing.

- The DSCC raised $26.5 million (including a $20 million loan), per its FEC filing. It spent $27.5 million and has $21.4 million cash on hand.

- The Senate Leadership Fund raised just under $22 million, per its FEC filing. It spent $34.4 million and has $34.4 million cash on hand. It got $6 million from One Nation and $3 million from businessman Stephen Schwarzman.

- Senate Majority PAC raised $36.4 million, per its FEC filing. It spent $38.3 million and has just under $37 million cash on hand. This includes $20 million from former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg.

- House Majority PAC raised $9.5 million, per its FEC filing. It spent $26 million and has $18.2 million cash on hand.

- The Congressional Leadership Fund raised $17.1 million, per its FEC filing. It spent $28.9 million and has $23.9 million cash on hand. This includes $3 million each from Charles and Helen Schwab. 

- Independence USA PAC (Bloomberg's super PAC) raised $23.1 million, all from Bloomberg per its FEC filing. It spent $7.5 million and has $18.2 million cash on hand.

- America First Action, the pro-Trump super PAC, raised $2.9 million, per its FEC filing. The group spent $14.1 million and has $6.9 million cash on hand.

- NextGen Climate Action Committee brought in $9.1 million, almost exclusively from Tom Steyer, per its FEC filing. It spent $8 million and has $1.6 million cash on hand.

- One notable candidate: Sen. Heidi Heitkamp (D-N.D) raised $12.6 million in a little over two weeks (POLITICO's Maggie Severns has more).

Happy Friday! The latest video in our "Midterm View" series takes a look at if red-state Democrats can survive 2018. Give it a watch! As always, email me at [email-masked] or DM me at @ZachMontellaro.

Email the great Campaign Pro team at [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked] and [email-masked]. Follow them on Twitter: @PoliticoScott @ec_schneider, @JamesArkin and @DanielStrauss4.

Days until the 2018 election: 11

** Presented by AARP: Americans 50 and over are the most powerful voting bloc. Candidates should pay attention to them and the issues they care about. That's why POLITICO Focus and AARP brought together 50-plus voters in PA-18, the battleground Congressional district, to hear what's on their mind. Watch now. http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=d61735003b16b365a2e2566aad8528066042053de7fc6a1ae0b9705656a82ed3175af049509711fffbf98b7a3c3904ff **

Join POLITICO Playbook Co-Authors Anna Palmer and Jake Sherman for a special Playbook Elections event in Pennsylvania to discuss the 2018 midterm cycle and issues shaping the races. This event, part of the POLITICO-AARP Deciders series, will feature an exclusive conversation with elected officials, addressing issues that matter most to voters. 

President Donald Trump says a red wave is coming on Election Day. Is he right, or will the tide turn blue? Compete against the nation's top political minds in the POLITICO Playbook Election Challenge, by correctly picking the winning candidates in some of the most competitive House, Senate and gubernatorial races in the country. Win awesome prizes and eternal bragging rights. Sign up today: Visit politico.com/playbookelectionchallenge to play.
          IN THE TRENCHES         
NEW POLITICO RACE RATINGS - Our race ratings guru Steve Shepard has shifted eight House races a week and a half out from election day. Six moved in Democrats' favor and two moved toward Republicans. AK-AL, FL-06, FL-15 and VA-05 all moved from likely Republican to lean Republican, while FL-26 and IL-14 moved from lean Republican to toss up. MN-08 moved from toss-up to lean Republican, and WA-08 moved from lean Democrat to toss-up.

POLLS POLLS POLLS - A new survey shows Democrats leading Michigan's major statewide races by single digits - and smaller margins than other polls have shown. In a poll from the Detroit Free Press/WLNS/WOOD/WJRT by EPIC-MRA, Democrat Gretchen Whitmer leads Republican Bill Schuette, 46 percent to 41 percent, in the gubernatorial race. In the Senate race, Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow leads Republican John James, 49 percent to 42 percent. The poll was in the field Oct. 18-23 and surveyed 600 likely voters.

- The race in NJ-03 is functionally tied. In a Monmouth University poll, Democrat Andy Kim leads GOP Rep. Tom MacArthur, 48 percent to 46 percent, in the standard midterm model. In a Democratic surge model, Kim leads 50 percent to 44 percent. A low turnout model has Kim up 49 percent to 46 percent. The poll was in the field Oct. 18-22 and surveyed 363 likely voters.

TRUMP TO THE RESCUE - The White House has turned its attention to Florida, where Republicans are worried they could be headed for a wipeout. POLITICO's Alex Isenstadt: "Trump is expected to visit the state at least twice, according to two people familiar with the plans. Visits from several cabinet members are likely. Presidential text messages are being sent to Floridians who still haven't cast their absentee ballots. And discussions are underway about blanketing the state with robocalls from Trump. ... Behind the scenes, Trump aides have been in contact with top Florida Republicans on a near day-to-day basis. Private polling out of the state they've viewed in recent days has left them
 worried. ...

"Aides to [gubernatorial candidate and former Rep. Ron] DeSantis and [GOP Gov. Rick Scott, who is running for Senate,] insist they're ahead and point out that early vote numbers are favorable. But they concede the races are close. On Tuesday, Blaise Hazelwood, the top strategist for a pro-Scott super PAC, sent a memo to donors warning them that the contest was tight and pleading with them for additional financial help."

BATTLEGROUND WATCH - The NRCC and CLF are jumping into two Republican-held districts, Elena reported. The NRCC is adding $800,000 in spending in WA-03, where GOP Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler is being challenged by Democrat Carolyn Long. CLF is going into FL-15 with a $500,000 buy backing Republican Ross Spano, who's facing Democrat Kristen Carlson.

- SMP dropped just over $3 million on a buy in New Jersey backing Democratic Sen. Bob Menendez. The buy started Thursday and runs through the end of the month.

ON THE AIRWAVES - FIRST IN SCORE - CLF is going up with three new ads. The group is going up for the first time this cycle in WA-03, hitting Democrat Carolyn Long, who is challenging GOP Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler. "Jaime Herrera Beutler cut middle-class taxes, saving Washington families twenty-three hundred dollars," the ad says. "Liberal Long is part of the resistance, joining Pelosi to oppose your tax cut." A source with knowledge of the buy said the television component is $200,000. 

- The group is also releasing two ads in districts it has already spent money in. In CA-10, the ad ties Democrat Josh Harder to Pelosi. "Harder shares Nancy Pelosi's liberal San Francisco values," it says. The third ad strikes a similar tone in NC-02, hitting Democrat Linda Coleman. "Nancy Pelosi's liberal allies are funding Linda Coleman's campaign. Why?" the ad says. "Because Coleman would be another vote for Pelosi's tax-raising agenda."

- House Majority PAC is also launching two new ads. In CA-21, the ad hits GOP Rep. David Valadao over health care. "Here in the Valley, we have the highest child asthma rate in the nation," the ad says. "But in Congress, David Valadao voted to let insurance companies deny coverage to people with pre-existing conditions like asthma." A second ad in OH-01 targets GOP Rep. Steve Chabot over health care. "Steve Chabot voted to cut health care for kids," the ad says, referring to Medicaid cuts in last year's GOP health care bill.

THE DEM RAIN MAKER - ActBlue has become one of the most important pieces of infrastructure in the Democratic campaign world. And in a year where Democrats have tapped into small-dollar enthusiasm, the majority of it flows through ActBlue. The Center for Public Integrity's Carrie Levine and Chris Zubak-Skees: "Between January 2017 and Sept. 30, 2018 - the most recent date for which Federal Election Commission data is available - nearly $564 million, or about 55 percent of all contributions from individual donors to Democratic congressional candidates, passed through the platform, compared to about 19 percent at this point in the 2014 election. ... Donors in California and New York combined
 to contribute roughly one-third of the dollars that have flowed through ActBlue to House and Senate candidates since the beginning of 2017. ... Fifty-seven percent of dollars directed to congressional candidates via ActBlue went to out-of-state races."

- ActBlue announced that it has raised $1.5 million for Democratic campaigns and causes this cycle.

SELF FUNDING MACHINES - Democrat J.B. Pritzker, who is challenging incumbent Illinois Republican Gov. Bruce Rauner, has become the biggest self-funder ever. NPR's Tony Arnold: "An heir to the Hyatt franchise, Pritzker has now given his campaign $161.5 million. This is not adjusted for inflation, but he is closing in on that, too. The previous record for self-financing a campaign was set by Meg Whitman in her failed 2010 bid for California governor, who gave her campaign $144 million of her own money."

- Republican Gov. Rick Scott has kicked in at least $54 million of his own money to fund his Senate campaign. His pre-general election filing reported him giving $51 million of his own money, while a new 48-hour report filed Thursday added another $3.8 million.

- Republican Bob Hugin has also filled his campaign coffers with his own money. His pre-general report had $27.5 million in loans from Hugin to his campaign, while two additional 48-hour reports tallied an additional $3.5 million.

AD ROUNDUP - Daniel and I watched about 70 ads (we're in the home stretch, everyone!) released on Thursday. The Montana Senate race was hit with a bunch of new ads, with the Republican ads arguing Democratic Sen. Jon Tester doesn't side with the president and the Democratic ads saying Republican Matt Rosendale isn't really from the state. Another interesting ad comes from GOP Rep. Carlos Curbelo in FL-26. The Spanish-language ad features a Dreamer saying Curbelo is fighting for them.

THE SWING VOTE - The common refrain about this year's election is that suburban women will be the key swing vote. POLITICO Magazine's Michael Kruse went to NC-09 to try to find them: "In the end, I talked to just one such woman-and she didn't want me to use her name. And what I heard from this woman, who works in the health care industry and lives in an upper-end neighborhood in south Charlotte and has college-age daughters, was not gung-ho in her support but rather some mixture of fatigue, resignation and even anguish. Two years ago, she told me, she was more against Hillary Clinton than she was for Trump. She likes what Trump's done with the economy and his stance on immigration but
 loathes the way he behaves. ... But she worries. What if her vote is the vote that swings this district? And what if this is the district that swings the House?"

PARTING SHOT - Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill and Republican Josh Hawley took a few parting shots at each other in their final debate. Our own James Arkin from Kansas City, Mo.: "Hawley pejoratively called McCaskill a 'liberal Democrat' at least ten times during the debate, underlining his key campaign message that she is out of step with Missouri voters. McCaskill countered by criticizing Hawley for attempting to climb the political ladder after only two years in the attorney general's office, and she accused him of making up attacks against her."

ELECTION SECURITY - With the midterms just over a week away, the U.S. election system is still vulnerable to cyberattacks. Vox's Benjamin Wofford: "Vox spent six months speaking with more than 100 people in the world of elections - officials in the federal government, the intelligence community, election advocacy, state and local election offices, private vendors, academic researchers, and campaigns. Their verdict is sobering: Since 2016, the country's election infrastructure has improved, but not by much, and things are going to get worse before they get better. ... From now on, these officials say, each aspect of elections is a national security target - and they will be for the next few
 decades, so we'd better get used to it now."

2020 WATCH - Probably not the bumper sticker slogan you're looking for ... Michael Avenatti told TIME's Molly Ball and Alana Abramson that he thinks the Democratic nominee should be a white man: "[W]hen it comes to the party's presidential nominee in 2020, Avenatti thinks in different terms. 'I think it better be a white male,' he says. He hastens to add that he wishes it weren't so, but it's undeniable that people listen to white men more than they do others; it's why he's been successful representing Daniels and immigrant mothers, he says. 'When you have a white male making the arguments, they carry more weight,' he says. 'Should they carry more weight? Absolutely not. But do they? Yes.'"
 He denied ever saying that to The Daily Caller's Joe Simonson, but the magazine said it stands behind its reporting.

- Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.) pledged to serve out a six-year term if re-elected, in a debate. Here's the footage from Republican oppo researchers America Rising.

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "I'd give you a kidney, but I'd never vote for you," Frank Grandson, the cousin of Virginia Republican Senate candidate Corey Stewart, relaying what he told Stewart to The Washington Post.

** Presented by AARP: If candidates want to win in November they need to listen to 50-plus voters. More Americans 50 and over vote than any other voting bloc and the issues they care about including Medicare, Social Security, support for family caregivers and prescription drug costs, are all on the line. They're frustrated with broken government, fed up with politicians who would rather fight than get results, and are planning to turn out on election day. That's why POLITICO Focus and AARP brought together 50-plus voters in PA-18, the battleground Congressional district, to hear what's on their mind. Watch now and see it for yourself. http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=d61735003b16b365a2e2566aad8528066042053de7fc6a1ae0b9705656a82ed3175af049509711fffbf98b7a3c3904ff **
    
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