Subject: POLITICO Huddle: VIOLENCE UNSETTLES ELECTORATE -- House GOP eyes mid-November for leadership elections -- MAXINE WATERS, THE DEAL-MAKER? -- McCaskill sides with Trump on caravan
From: "POLITICO Huddle" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 30 Oct 2018 06:02:06 -0600
List-Id: <1376319.xt.local>

10/30/2018 08:00 AM EDT

By Nolan D. McCaskill ([email-masked] or @NolanDMcCaskill)
 
DEMS REGAIN MOMENTUM -- Republicans are on track to lose the House next week, despite a burst of enthusiasm from GOP voters over the confirmation process for Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh. "Some Republicans deep in Trump country have regained ground," Elena Schneider reports. "But the handful of bright spots have been outweighed by a tidal wave of Democratic spending and voter support in the closing weeks of the midterm election." The Kavanaugh confirmation "benefits the Senate," according to GOP consultant Rob Stutzman, but "leaves suburban members of Congress stranded."
 
"Meanwhile, a pair of crises just a week out from Election Day -- the massacre of 11 people in a Pittsburgh synagogue and the arrest of a suspect for mailing pipe bombs to a number of prominent Democratic politicians -- have further unsettled the electorate just before the midterm vote," she writes. "The tumult of October has hit two North Carolina races, where the parties are tracking a pair of competitive races in the suburbs of Charlotte and Raleigh, both in districts Trump carried by double-digits in 2016. It's been a decade since Democrats have gained a congressional seat in North Carolina." More: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=9996f9a2f3219c16887eb16235cb9b2e2d7a210c82eb1aff27e37e0b6c7541ad7b173e66150b259dcf76c6c5510ce718 
 
Related: "GOP scrambles to save suddenly vulnerable House candidates in Trump districts," by The Washington Post's Sean Sullivan and David Weigel: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=9996f9a2f3219c16ba768115775fd1558dcaf60da4a430edcd5069a3b5b9b9c8333d72d38cf380831808300b04ff74dd and "Fearing loss of the House, Republicans blame each other," from USA Today's Eliza Collins: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=9996f9a2f3219c16522cee9ae40e5c62ca47c94804890fea8515be8f47d614a6fbe237cbac270c4685d82a7f40c8d8f0 
 
INSIDE TRUMP'S CAMPAIGN CRASH COURSE -- The president had an early interest in failed GOP Senate candidate Kelli Ward. Political advisers and Senate officials warned him Ward would lose, so he let the primary play out and endorsed the winner, Rep. Martha McSally (R-Ariz.), after the election. "It was one of several cases in which Bill Stepien, the White House's political director, was able to help guide the president -- with polling numbers and a deep knowledge of national campaigns -- in ways that don't always match Trump's shoot-from-the hip style," Christopher Cadelago reports. "Aides say Trump ... has been willing to listen, absorbing poll data and forgiving past grudges as he works to
 limit Democratic midterm gains."
 
Stepien goes through more than 70 races each morning, analyzing polling and intelligence and shifting contests. Some days he sees a narrow path to retaining control of the House. "Regardless of the outcome, much of the attention on Nov. 7 will turn to Stepien, who works behind the scenes," he adds. "Besides Trump himself, the political director is poised to get notable credit if Republicans have a better-than-expected showing, but he is also on the hook if the GOP takes a drubbing." History shows the president's party has lost an average of 25 House seats since 1946. Much more: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=9996f9a2f3219c16321e6f518f98772560ede1966105b688aa2fae6ffd587fe10fc2d8e4bc6267c6c0f6978e22d65ac0 
 
COMING SOON -- House Republicans are planning to hold their leadership elections on Nov. 14, the week after the midterms. House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) and Freedom Caucus founder Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) are the only declared candidates for speaker or minority leader. McCarthy's "path to become speaker would be difficult, given that Republicans are likely to have a smaller, more conservative conference next year," Rachael and Bres write. "But most Republicans think McCarthy would easily win the votes to be minority leader, should the party lose power." Majority Whip Steve Scalise (R-La.) is poised to become majority leader or minority whip.
 
Multiple lawmakers are privately considering a challenge against House GOP Conference Chairwoman Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R-Wash.), and it's unclear whether NRCC Chairman Steve Stivers (R-Ohio) will seek another term. The GOP leadership elections, however, could be pushed back. "Multiple conservatives have discussed demanding the vote be pushed until after a looming December fiscal fight. The Department of Homeland Security and several other agencies run out of money on Dec. 7, at which time Republicans promised President Donald Trump that they would fight for his border wall with Mexico," they report. "Conservatives want to see how McCarthy handles the fiscal showdown before they vote on
 next leaders." More: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=9996f9a2f3219c166adb62c2509d918eca9a1668a5c7cdce37ec2fb27db744ff1fc0cbf523d0131c8e1f3c1156dc3f95 
 
GOOD MORNING! Thanks for reading Huddle, the play-by-play guide to all things Capitol Hill, on this Tuesday, Oct. 30.
 
MONDAY'S MOST CLICKED: Axios' report on the president's final campaign road trip was the winner.
 
Election Day is almost here. Have you made your POLITICO Playbook Election Challenge picks yet? Don't miss your chance to compete against the nation's top political minds by correctly picking the winning candidates in some of the most competitive House, Senate and gubernatorial races in the country. Win awesome prizes and eternal bragging rights. The contest closes at 6 a.m. on Nov. 6. Sign up today. 
 
POLITICO Pro announces dedicated California coverage: On Nov. 7, there will be a new authority on California politics and policy. Just in time to help policy professionals and business leaders in the Golden State navigate the twists and turns of a new administration, POLITICO California Pro is the only tool that will arm you with a team of state-level experts. Learn more.
 
REPUBLICANS ACTUALLY LIKE MAXINE WATERS -- There's no love lost between the president and Rep. Maxine Waters (D-Calif.). Waters has repeatedly called for Trump's impeachment, and Trump has questioned her intelligence and called her "crazy." "But Republicans who work with the California Democrat on the House Financial Services Committee see something different: a rare deal-maker in a polarized Congress," Zachary Warmbrodt writes. "Waters, who would chair the committee if Democrats win the House, has shown a surprising willingness to work across the aisle and with industry groups, even helping to deliver White House-backed legislation to ease regulations and crack down on China." Much more: 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=9996f9a2f3219c16c3e14481ba788c55dfc8fe1d5adc1c30f18c2a2240945620d469bb1bcf95e5bf76f5c06484a54a6a 
 
Related: "Meet the Would-Be House Committee Leaders Who Could Torment Trump," by The New York Times' Nicholas Fandos, Sheryl Gay Stolberg and Catie Edmondson: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=9996f9a2f3219c1636830a7dfec83b08aaf27a6cfb58e36b390eb31ef7c06ddffada3abda65bf76d7258a77db6d00965 
 
SIDESTEPPING TRUMP -- The way Rep. Tom MacArthur (R-N.J.) is tiptoeing around the president in the closing days of the election, he could almost be mistaken for a member of the resistance. "The Republican congressman has done more than anyone in New Jersey to help Trump," The Associated Press' Steve Peoples and Thomas Beaumont report. "He was the only member of his delegation to vote for Trump's tax cuts. And he personally authored a provision that briefly resurrected Trump's health care plan." Yet he addressed hundreds of veterans at an event without mentioning Trump's name. He also said he's worked with Democrats and isn't afraid to push back against Trump when necessary.
 
"In an election that hinges on Trump's standing, candidates from both parties are struggling to find the right balance when it comes to Trump," they write. "While liberals demand Trump's impeachment, many Democratic candidates are focused on health care. Republicans in Washington, meanwhile, are all in for Trump, but the party's most important House candidates are spending their final days attacking Democrats for resisting -- without saying much about the president who's being resisted." RNC Chairwoman Ronna Romney McDaniel insists the midterms aren't about Trump. "The candidates that we have that are doing better are the candidates that are focused on district specific issues and not
 nationalizing the race," she said. More: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=9996f9a2f3219c16c686298933778882f90e2e8587e54cba6c8cd2ced9f5fea53334c69c4cfeb34cf06b08303cf171c0 
 
TRUMP CAMPAIGN RELEASES 2018 AD -- The president's reelection campaign has paid for and produced a 2018 ad for the closing week of the election. Notably, it doesn't feature Trump. The 60-second spot is a $6 million TV and digital ad buy focused on the economy. "The move is unprecedented, considering the President is not actually on the ballot November 6. But then again, so was formally filing for re-election on inauguration day January 20, 2017," CNN's Dana Bash writes. Trump campaign manager Brad Parscale told CNN the ad shows "things are getting better." "We need to continue to vote Republican and to continue to move forward with the president's agenda," he said. More: 
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=9996f9a2f3219c16ad3122c37dd53a2a7f497bde0a90cc2b1c60526a3072dfbf256c74c17cb5f07ed583a29c3f1736ee and the ad: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=9996f9a2f3219c16558af3a88e74dcf2329443c44a8fd51ed104aaf665a49d21de5dd80ca9ebe32f23d6ffd4c919e277 
 
MCCASKILL MAKES HER CASE ON FOX -- Vulnerable Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-Mo.) name-dropped Sens. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) and Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) in a Fox News interview when asked about "crazy Democrats." "The crazy Democrats are people who walk in restaurants and scream in elected officials' faces," McCaskill explained. She referenced a state senator in Missouri who called for the president's assassination. "That's a crazy Democrat," she said. McCaskill declined to acknowledge any of her Senate colleagues as "crazy" but said, "Elizabeth Warren sure went after me when I advocated tooling back some of the regulations for small banks and credit unions."
 
"McCaskill went on to float Sanders' name, although she didn't specify exactly why," Fox News' Gregg Re adds. On the migrant caravan the president has seized on in the closing weeks of the election, McCaskill said Trump "has to use every tool he has at his disposal," and she backs him on that "100 percent." "I do not want our borders overrun," she continued. "And I support the president's efforts to make sure they're not." McCaskill has consistently led state Attorney General Josh Hawley in polling, but she currently trails by 2 percentage points in RealClearPolitics' average of recent polls. More: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=9996f9a2f3219c16e81090158a3d45be37797da83ef70565fe715853a523485c99f222e0719ba7a09eaebed5059eacb3 
 
Related read: "Will Democrats blow it with black voters again?" from James Arkin and Alex Thompson: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=9996f9a2f3219c16c7027655b79d265ecd7e86583fb3dc1cc4ec9907d98b685d7e2a7c90fd2408ab565ddc5e7df316e4 
 
MISSION IMPOSSIBLE? -- Even a Senate Democratic candidate says Democrats won't win the majority in the upper chamber next week. "I've never thought it was likely," Phil Bredesen said of a Democratic majority in the Senate, "and I think in the past month or two it's become impossible." But that "actually helps me tremendously," said Bredesen, the former governor who is running against Rep. Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn.) to succeed retiring Sen. Bob Corker (R-Tenn.). Blackburn is running "explicitly as a proxy for President Donald Trump," BuzzFeed News' Henry J. Gomez writes. "The way Blackburn frames it, the only thing standing between her party and political catastrophe is this race."
 
Bredesen, meanwhile, is running a hyperlocal campaign. He hardly mentions Trump, except to say he would find ways to work with the president. He hinted that he isn't surprised that Blackburn is seeking to nationalize the race because his polling shows his "biggest negative" is the fact he's a Democrat. "He is trying to turn back the clock, to a time when a pragmatic, mild-mannered Democrat could win statewide office (Bredesen was the last, 12 years ago)," Gomez notes. "Blackburn, 66, is trying to plunge Tennessee deeper and irrevocably into Trumpism." More: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=9996f9a2f3219c165889dce8fcb070e72a000ef18e95e8b6c2e1243f2b97a79407773188227762a40aef148b4900b555 
 
MUTED MENENDEZ ENDORSEMENT -- The Newark Star-Ledger editorial board issued a tepid endorsement for Sen. Bob Menendez (D-N.J.) over GOP candidate Bob Hugin. "This year's U.S. Senate race presents the most depressing choice for New Jersey voters in a generation, with two awful candidates whose most convincing argument is that the other guy is unfit to serve," the editorial begins. "Why no joy? Because both candidates are slippery characters, even by Washington standards." The editorial board called it a "miracle" that Menendez wasn't convicted for accepting expensive gifts and using his office "to promote the personal and business interests of the man who paid the bills."
 
Hugin, however, "is no better," it writes. "He's using the closing weeks of his campaign to spread the most vicious lie of this election season in New Jersey -- the suggestion that Menendez patronized child prostitutes in the Dominican Republic." Hugin also lacks public policy knowledge, the editorial board added, and likely wouldn't stand up to the president. "Our hope is that voters remember that Trump is on the ballot, that they choke down their reluctance and vote for Menendez," it concludes. "He's no gem, but he's better than Hugin." More: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=9996f9a2f3219c1673ff582ae608025d397d04d5bff4809eaec8cc13405a84cfd1a95f5b38357847ca94623a5a776fa5 
 
TRANSITIONS -- Amanda Crane is a principal media adviser for Joe Hockey, the Australian ambassador to the U.S. Crane was previously press secretary for Rep. Joaquin Castro (D-Texas).
 
TODAY IN CONGRESS -- The House and Senate are out.
 
MONDAY'S TRIVIA WINNER -- Will Estes was first to correctly guess that Franklin D. Roosevelt was the longest-serving president. He won four consecutive presidential elections but served only 12 years. 
 
TODAY'S TRIVIA -- From Will: Who was the last former foreign head of state to serve in the U.S. Congress? The first person to correctly guess gets a mention in the next edition of Huddle. Send your best guess my way: [email-masked].
 
GET HUDDLE emailed to your phone each morning.
 
To view online:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=9996f9a2f3219c16808d51f06b045cc73b13f28a036b1a496509b0cef692297ae8153d699bf537a3a986efbb177bc22d
 To change your alert settings, please go to http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=9996f9a2f3219c1674a668bc91d71d82ea4c23cbda36a28f385788e9b0909db18f1814cebe990beeab80d9fbebc3b543 or http://click.politicoemail.com/profile_center.aspx?qs=c1c81b2ef644fde1dd3c1f6178ef6a8ea3ee660992025bd4e76d9e7d7a7bb6b7edad509759c9840acf674bdf600fa5e9f8ede6a0ddbc7bfffeab4a14093b714f
This email was sent to [email-masked] by: POLITICO, LLC 1000 Wilson Blvd. Arlington, VA, 22209, USA

To unsubscribe,https://www.politico.com/_unsubscribe?e=00000166-c4d8-d3c2-affe-d4dc595b0000&u=0000014e-f0fe-dd93-ad7f-f8fffbc40000&s=570c8bc170a78f002b1cbbec6f75cd067671302ad823c5cd4e448a3f578446f0d5c4ff70a6b55a3ddfcbd25e94b4741e703d0bdba9ccac0a8f21839b9edd7bb0