Subject: Playbook PM: Trump vs. Ryan
From: "Anna Palmer Jake Sherman Daniel Lippman" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 31 Oct 2018 11:12:10 -0600
List-Id: <1376319.xt.local>

Presented by Charter: Playbook is POLITICO's must-read briefing on what's driving the day in Washington                Oct 31, 2018 View in browser                   
 By Anna Palmer, Jake Sherman, Daniel Lippman, Eli Okun and Garrett Ross 
             
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WHAT'S NEW IS OLD ... THE PRESIDENT at 12:43 p.m. (@realDonaldTrump): "Paul Ryan should be focusing on holding the Majority rather than giving his opinions on Birthright Citizenship, something he knows nothing about! Our new Republican Majority will work on this, Closing the Immigration Loopholes and Securing our Border!"

WELCOME TO TRUMP VERSUS RYAN, in the waning days of the Wisconsin Republican's speakership. To be sure, they're likely to patch up this mishap. The speaker and the president have been on good terms for years now. But it's poetic, in a sense, that we're right back to where we started in November 2016, with Ryan publicly battling Trump.

RYAN'S PUBLIC COMMENT YESTERDAY -- that, of course, the president could not undo birthright citizenship unilaterally -- tracks with what many Republicans believe. But Trump hates when there's sniping at him from inside the tent. He can't help but fire back.

THIS IS A SHIFT, OF SORTS, in Ryan's strategy in dealing with Trump. Right after he announced his retirement, Ryan said this, in an interview with Jake, WaPo's Paul Kane and CNN's Phil Mattingly: "It works better to have private conversations than public disputes. It's more effective ... with the president in particular. He appreciates that. He appreciates that when we have disputes or differences of opinions that we air them out privately, and what I've learned is, he learns and he responds and he respects." The interview

-- AND, BY THE WAY: The rich irony of this is that Ryan has been on the road non-stop for the last two years -- as have Kevin McCarthy and Steve Scalise. Don't cry for them -- it's their job! -- but to say that any of them aren't worried about the majority would be nonsense.

NEW ... RICK SCOTT gave his Senate campaign another $1.2 million today, per an FEC filing.

CNN'S BRIAN STELTER: "Megyn Kelly's camp calls out NBCUniversal CEO amid testy exit talks"

-- @megynkelly: "1 of 2: For a week paparazzi has been lurking outside my home day & nite. Finally today I took my kids to school. I went out alone 1st, offered them donuts &begged them to just take their pic of me & to leave my kids alone when they emerged. All were nice. Except the Dailymail..." 

-- MORE MEGYN: "2 of 2: The DailyMail 1st published photos of my husb IN OUR HOME & then *did* photog my kids, trailed us to my daughter's school, & secretly videotaped my 7-yr-old child (her classmates too) & posted it. THIS IS NOT RIGHT."

THE BIG PICTURE -- WAPO'S ASHLEY PARKER and PHIL RUCKER: "'Pushing every button': Trump mobilizes the government in campaign's final days": "President Trump is mobilizing the vast powers of the military and other parts of the federal government to help bolster Republican election efforts, using the office of the presidency in an attempt to dictate the campaigns' closing themes and stoke the fears and anxieties of his supporters ahead of Tuesday's midterm elections. ... 

"The cumulative acts reflect the extent to which Trump has transformed parts of the federal bureaucracy into a factory of threats, directives and actions - an outgrowth of a campaign strategy which the president and his political advisers settled on as their best chance to hold the Republican congressional majorities. ... But unlike in 2016, when the GOP was more divided over how closely to hew to Trump's immigration rhetoric and policies, the party largely has fallen in line behind the president." WaPo

Good Wednesday afternoon.
       
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AROUND THE MIDTERM HORN ...

-- BURGESS EVERETT in Butte, Mont.: "Tester in danger as Trump seeks vengeance": "Tester's down-home, informal style is his biggest strength as he barnstorms the state, trying to personally connect with just enough voters to send him back to the Senate for six more years. But Tester has long infuriated the GOP, which has tagged him as a liberal out of step with Montana. The difference now is that they have a president willing to go all out to defeat him.

"Trump is out for revenge after Tester helped derail his pick to run the Veterans Affairs department, Ronny Jackson, earlier this year. And now a deluge of money from outside groups and visits from anti-Tester surrogates, including Trump himself, threaten to tip a race that everyone agrees is tightening. ... Everyone agrees the race is likely to be so close that a winner won't be declared until Nov. 7." POLITICO

-- DANIEL STRAUSS: "Democrats make late bid for governorships in deep-red Great Plains: Democrats in Kansas, Oklahoma and South Dakota are within striking distance of shocking gubernatorial wins on Election Day." POLITICO

-- BLOOMBERG'S ELIZABETH DEXHEIMER: "Wall Street Tries to Shape Democratic Victory by Backing Moderates": "Wall Street is opening its checkbook to soften the blow from a blue wave. For the first time in a decade, the securities and investment industries are spending more on Democrats than Republicans ahead of the Nov. 6 midterm elections. Bankers are also giving to Democrats.

"A big part of that is anti-Trump, but a lot of the money is flowing to moderate Democrats, a sign Wall Street is seeking Washington allies to temper the impact of progressives such as Representative Maxine Waters and Senator Elizabeth Warren, who are poised to hit the industry with subpoenas and tougher oversight." Bloomberg 

-- ONE OF THE MOST ENDANGERED INCUMBENTS IN THE U.S. ... PHILADELPHIA INQUIRER'S AMY ROSENBERG: "His seat at risk, U.S. Rep. Tom MacArthur tries to thread the Trump needle in tense race vs. Democrat Andy Kim in N.J.": "MacArthur is going 'positive' - a sign that that the moderate and independent voters of suburban New Jersey might need some tending if MacArthur ... is going to keep his Washington job. ... In recent weeks, he's made sure to highlight the nuances of his positions. ... 

"Never mind that MacArthur and his allies have been pounding Kim, a Rhodes scholar who served as a national security officer under President Barack Obama, with negative ads for months: tax cheat, liar, carpetbagger, 'Real Fishy,' Nancy Pelosi liberal. ... Republican voters like Kathy McLean of Ocean County, which gave Trump the highest margin, 94,000 votes, of any county in New Jersey, say they never viewed MacArthur as a clone of the president." The Inquirer

-- WAPO'S SEUNG MIN KIM (@seungminkim): "Very interesting, per [Sen. Joe] Donnelly campaign: 'President Barack Obama to campaign for Indiana Democratic candidates at early vote rally in Gary on Sunday' (Obama won Indiana in '08, lost it in '12)".

-- BUZZFEED'S BIM ADEWUNMI: "Oprah Is Going To Georgia To Campaign With Stacey Abrams": "[Brian] Kemp is also taking no chances: on the same day as Oprah's door-knocking and town halls for Abrams, Vice President Mike Pence will be hosting events with Kemp in Dalton, Savannah and Grovetown. Pence's visit will be followed by a flying visit on Sunday from President Trump." BuzzFeed 

-- NYT'S ALEX BURNS: "How a Democratic Dark-Money Group Flooded the 2018 House Map": "[A]n opaquely named Democratic organization, the Hub Project ... is on track to spend nearly $30 million since 2017 pressuring members of Congress in their districts. ...

"Several Democratic operatives involved in the group likened its role to that of Americans for Prosperity, the conservative advocacy network funded by the billionaire Koch brothers, during the Obama administration, albeit on a significantly smaller scale. ... In some districts, the Hub Project's state affiliates were running paid advertising months before other outside groups got involved - and before members of Congress mobilized to defend themselves." NYT 

WHAT ELSE IS ON THE PRESIDENT'S MIND -- @realDonaldTrump at 8:38 a.m.: "The Caravans are made up of some very tough fighters and people. Fought back hard and viciously against Mexico at Northern Border before breaking through. Mexican soldiers hurt, were unable, or unwilling to stop Caravan. Should stop them before they reach our Border, but won't!"

... at 8:45 a.m.: "Our military is being mobilized at the Southern Border. Many more troops coming. We will NOT let these Caravans, which are also made up of some very bad thugs and gang members, into the U.S. Our Border is sacred, must come in legally. TURN AROUND!"

-- DAILY REMINDER: Seeking asylum at a U.S. port of entry is legal.

... at 9:04 a.m.: "Stock Market up more than 400 points yesterday. Today looks to be another good one. Companies earnings are great!"

... at 9:09 a.m.: "Melania and I were treated very nicely yesterday in Pittsburgh. The Office of the President was shown great respect on a very sad & solemn day. We were treated so warmly. Small protest was not seen by us, staged far away. The Fake News stories were just the opposite-Disgraceful!"

... at 9:25 a.m.: "So-called Birthright Citizenship, which costs our Country billions of dollars and is very unfair to our citizens, will be ended one way or the other. It is not covered by the 14th Amendment because of the words 'subject to the jurisdiction thereof.' Many legal scholars agree....." 

... at 10:17 a.m.: "....Harry Reid was right in 1993, before he and the Democrats went insane and started with the Open Borders (which brings massive Crime) 'stuff.' Don't forget the nasty term Anchor Babies. I will keep our Country safe. This case will be settled by the United States Supreme Court!"

NPR: "Fact Check: 14th Amendment On Citizenship Cannot Be Overwritten By Executive Order" ... BURGESS EVERETT: "Reid fires back at Trump over birthright citizenship stance" 

... at 10:19 a.m.: "The World is using our laws to our detriment. They laugh at the Stupidity they see!"

THE LATEST ON THE MAIL BOMBS SUSPECT -- "Bomb Suspect Planned His Campaign for More Than Three Months, Court Papers Say," by NYT's Alan Feuer, William Rashbaum and Benjamin Weiser: "Describing the bomb spree as 'a domestic terrorist attack,' prosecutors gave a glimpse into its origins. They wrote in the court papers that the laptop of the suspect, Cesar A. Sayoc Jr., had been used, as early as July, to draft a list of targets and scour the internet for information on some of them and their families." NYT 

USA TODAY'S BRAD HEATH, MATT WYNN and JESSICA GUYNN: "How a lie about George Soros and the migrant caravan multiplied online": "The Soros theory was not new - it had made the rounds during previous caravans in the spring and again in August. In fact, one Facebook user posting in October provided as evidence a video of Glenn Beck discussing the spring caravan's alleged connections to Soros. This time, though, the theory snowballed, gaining political purchase as the caravan became a flashpoint in the final weeks of a contentious midterm campaign." USA Today 

THE STEP BACK ... ERIC GELLER: "Inside the Trump administration's rudderless fight to counter election propaganda" 

BEN SCHRECKINGER: "How an internet meme became a Trump campaign slogan": "On a Thursday morning earlier this month, a Twitter user in Georgia with 500 followers responded to a video of Trump touting the economy and denouncing Democrats by tweeting the hashtag '#JobsNotMobs.' ... Within a week, Trump had begun incorporating a variation of the concept - 'Democrats produce mobs, Republicans produce jobs' - into his stump speech, and his campaign began printing up signs to distribute at rallies with the slogan 'Jobs vs. Mobs.'

"The line's journey from a stray thought on social media to the heart of Trump's closing midterms argument offers a case study in the free-wheeling approach to messaging that has enabled the brander-in-chief to thrive in a fast-moving information environment even while relying less than his recent predecessors did on consultants, focus groups and other tools of modern political messaging." POLITICO 

KHASHOGGI INVESTIGATION UPDATE ... 

-- WAPO'S LOUISA LOVELUCK and KAREEM FAHIM in Istanbul: "Turkish prosecutor says Khashoggi was strangled and dismembered in Saudi Consulate": "Turkey's public prosecutor said Wednesday that Jamal Khashoggi was strangled and dismembered upon arrival at the Saudi Consulate in Istanbul earlier this month as part of a premeditated plan to kill the prominent Saudi journalist and dispose of his body. ...

"Since the [Saudi] prosecutor arrived in Turkey on Monday, 'Saudi officials seemed primarily interested in finding out what evidence the Turkish authorities had against the perpetrators' in Khashoggi's killing, said [a Turkish] official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss private law enforcement contacts. 'We did not get the impression that they were keen on genuinely cooperating with the investigation,' the official said of the Saudi delegation." WaPo 

-- CNN'S ELISE LABOTT (@eliselabottcnn): "After #JamalKhasoggi murder @marcorubio @CoryGardner @RandPaul @DeanHeller urge POTUS to suspend talks for US-#Saudi civil nuclear agreement."

WAR REPORT -- "New U.S. commander in Afghanistan says he's going on offense against the Taliban," by NBC's Courtney Kube in Kabul: "'This is not going to be won militarily, this is going to a political solution,' said Miller. 'My assessment is the Taliban also realizes they cannot win militarily.' ... Speaking from the Resolute Support headquarters building in Kabul, Miller said he knew early on that he needed to turn the tables on the Taliban and go after them." NBC

NPR'S NINA TOTENBERG: "A Supreme Marriage Proposal": "When [Bill] Rehnquist graduated a semester early and went off to Washington, D.C., for a Supreme Court clerkship, Sandra [Day] wrote to her parents that school 'does not seem the same' without him. ... By then, Sandra, the only woman in her class, was dating John O'Connor ... [J]ust about the time that the pair were going out on their 40th date in 40 days, Sandra got a letter from Rehnquist, telling her he wanted to see her to talk about 'important things.' 

"And in a March 29 letter, he popped the question. 'To be specific, Sandy, will you marry me this summer?' The future chief justice of the United States was proposing to the woman who years later would become the first woman to serve on the nation's highest court. ... The reveal comes in a new book entitled 'First' by author Evan Thomas, set to be published in March 2019." NPR ... Pre-order -- $19.49 on Amazon

REMEMBERING MICHAEL ROBERTSON -- BARACK OBAMA on Facebook: "Michael stayed with me in the Senate, and on the campaign trail, and in the White House, never losing that fundamental decency and optimism - even after he was diagnosed with stage IV cancer at just 35 years old. ... He ultimately got well, and returned to our team at the White House, as determined as ever.

"In 2015, his cancer returned. Last night, we lost Michael after another long battle. But what we remember today is the way he lived his extraordinary life. A life of meaning, purpose, and service. A life lived to make this country better for all of us." The post

TRANSITION -- HHS ARRIVAL LOUNGE -- Michael Pratt is now director of strategic communications and campaigns in the office of the assistant secretary for public affairs at HHS. He previously was director of media relations and marketing at AEI.

WEEKEND WEDDING -- Bobby McMillin, general counsel for the Senate HELP Committee, recently married Virginia Heppner, health policy adviser for HELP Chairman Lamar Alexander (R-Tenn.). The couple got married at James Monroe's Ash Lawn-Highland home in Charlottesville, Va. Pic by Anna Kardos ... Another pic

                        
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