Subject: POLITICO Playbook: 4 days out … No plans in the Capitol for Trump’s border wall
From: "Anna Palmer Jake Sherman Daniel Lippman" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 02 Nov 2018 04:25:19 -0600
List-Id: <1376319.xt.local>

Presented by Charter: Playbook is POLITICO's must-read briefing on what's driving the day in Washington                Nov 02, 2018 View in browser                   
 By Anna Palmer, Jake Sherman and Daniel Lippman 
             
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              DRIVING THE DAY      
FIRST IN PLAYBOOK: AL HUNT is leaving Bloomberg News in December after 14 years. He was most recently a columnist for Bloomberg, but also served as its D.C. bureau chief. Hunt, who will be 76 in December, will continue teaching a course on press and politics at the University of Pennsylvania's Annenberg School for Communications. He spent the bulk of his D.C. career -- 39 years -- at The Wall Street Journal as a reporter and bureau chief. 

WITH IMMIGRATION taking such a major role in the elections, we started wondering yesterday whether there was a plan in place to fund PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP'S border wall. Each person we spoke to in the Capitol said they had no idea how the fight would play out, and noted that there are NO serious talks underway yet. Republicans will look to wrap this up this year. It's going to be a long eight weeks.

ONE CONSTANT during Trump's presidency is that he's seemed surprised by the constraints of the office. He came in as the CEO of a family real estate empire, who had to learn to deal with Congress, congressional leaders and the guardrails around the executive branch. If Democrats take the House, Trump will be further shackled. The policy preferences he's enumerating at the moment -- new asylum policies, a militarized southern border and a new tax bill -- would likely go up in smoke in divided government. There are serious concerns at the top of the GOP food chain that the White House is not fully attuned to this reality.

EYE-POPPING ... ALASKA REP. DON YOUNG, the longest-serving member of the House, who first was elected to Congress in 1972, is down 1 point to Alyse Galvin, a Democrat and an Anchorage businesswoman. The poll ... An Anchorage Press story about the race

NYT'S DAVID BROOKS: "This is not a wave election; it's a realignment election. The results Tuesday will not be shaped by some crest of momentum behind the Democrats. They are going to be shaped by the fact that people are hardening into their categories, and those categories tend to produce a Democratic House and a Republican Senate." NYT

-- DATA DU JOUR: "More than 20 million early votes cast so far, as women, older voters lead the way," by CNN's Annie Grayer and Aaron Kessler: "So far, some emerging themes are clear: more women than men have voted. And the early vote is also predominantly older in the seven states, although a higher percentage of early voters are often older." CNN

IMPORTANT STORY ... JOHN BRESNAHAN and RACHAEL BADE: "Black Caucus chairman wants one of their own as speaker or majority leader": "The demand by Rep. Cedric Richmond (D-La.), the CBC's chairman, is seen as a potential threat to House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi of California and Minority Whip Steny Hoyer of Maryland who have been slotted to return as speaker and House majority leader, respectively, if Democrats gain the majority on Nov. 6.

"Hoyer, especially, could be the one to face a potential challenger if the CBC backs up Richmond's threat, according to Democratic insiders. Yet Rep. Jim Clyburn (S.C.), the highest-ranking black Democrat, said he has no intention of challenging Pelosi and Hoyer if they run for speaker and majority leader if they seek the top two posts in a Democratic majority. 

"All of the internal jockeying comes as Democrats from Pelosi on down believe they will win back the House next week and are trying to claim their respective leadership spots." POLITICO ... Richmond's letter to colleagues

MEANWHILE ... "'There's a charm offensive underway': Pelosi makes stealth play for speaker," by Rachael Bade and Elena Schneider: "House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi is quietly courting Democratic candidates who've kept her at arm's length throughout the campaign season, aiming to placate potential adversaries who could block her from the speakership.

"The California Democrat's efforts -- from nudging her donors toward candidates, to appearing at private fundraisers for House hopefuls who can't be seen with her publicly -- are focused on the Democrats in competitive races who are most likely to win. While it's too early to say whether she would have the 218 votes to claim the speaker's gavel should her party claim House majority, Pelosi has clearly made inroads.

"Of the 43 Democratic candidates in districts that POLITICO rates 'lean-Democrat,' 'likely-Democrat' or 'toss-up' - the swath of GOP-held seats most likely to flip - only 11 have said they would not back Pelosi for speaker. Of those 11, only four would confirm that they would vote against Pelosi on the House floor next year." POLITICO

Good Friday morning. FOUR days until the election. 

TRUMP ON THE TRAIL ... GABBY ORR: "Trump's immigration obsession could backfire, some Republicans fear": "President Donald Trump hammered his hard line on immigration again on Thursday, but some Republicans wish he would shift focus to the economy, lest he drive away suburban voters and mobilize Latino communities against the GOP.

"Several Republican operatives and officials described a growing sense of fear within the party over Trump's hardline rhetoric on border security, which he has repeated nearly every day for the past three weeks." POLITICO
       
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ON THE WORLD STAGE -- ELIANA JOHNSON: "GOP hawks to Trump: You're going soft on Iran": "Led by Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas), the lawmakers - who typically cheer Trump's foreign policy moves - expect that Trump will disappoint them when he rolls out new Iran sanctions Friday. The State Department has scheduled a Friday morning call on the subject. 

"Refusing to be associated with a policy he opposes, [John] Bolton dropped off the call, during which [Treasury Secretary Steven] Mnuchin and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo will brief reporters, according to two sources familiar with the conversations. An NSC spokesman declined to comment on internal deliberations.

"The legislation, which Cruz is expected to introduce in the weeks following the midterm election, and which is likely to be cosponsored by two other leading GOP foreign policy hawks - Sens. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) and Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) - will press Trump to cut off several Iranian banks from the global banking network known as SWIFT, an acronym for the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication, which banks worldwide use for international transactions. Rep. Mike Gallagher (R-Wisc.) is expected to drop a companion bill in the House." POLITICO

-- WSJ: "Trump and Xi Talk as U.S.-China Tech Fight Brews"

MARKET WATCH: REUTERS: "U.S. job growth seen accelerating; strong annual wage gain expected," by Lucia Mutikani: "U.S. job growth likely rebounded in October, with wages expected to have recorded their largest annual gain in 9-1/2 years, pointing to further labor market tightening that could encourage the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates again in December.

"The Labor Department's closely watched monthly employment report on Friday is also expected to show the unemployment rate steady at a 49-year low of 3.7 percent. Sustained labor market strength could ease fears about the economy's health following weak housing data and stalling business spending." Reuters

2018 WATCH -- ANDREW RESTUCCIA in Columbia, Mo.: "Name-calling Trump treads lightly with some female candidates": "He called Nancy Pelosi 'an MS-13 lover.' He deemed Maxine Waters a 'low IQ person.' He dubbed Elizabeth Warren 'Pocahontas.' President Donald Trump has never been shy about branding his female political enemies with personal and demeaning insults. 

"But here in Missouri, where Claire McCaskill is facing off against Josh Hawley in one of the closest Senate races in the country, Trump held his tongue. 'She's been saying such nice things about me, but you know what, she'll never vote for me,' Trump said, casting McCaskill as a 'far-left Democrat.'" POLITICO

-- ZACH MONTELLARO: "Steve King opponent gets last-second deluge of cash": "Democrat J.D. Scholten, the former baseball player challenging GOP Rep. Steve King in Iowa, has seen a last second wave of cash come his way as King has sparked new controversy this fall. Scholten raised over $641,000 on Tuesday and Wednesday alone, his campaign shared with POLITICO." POLITICO

-- @IAStartingLine: "Steve King blows up at questioner who pressed him on the Pittsburgh massacre #IA04" 1-min. video 

-- In the fifth and final episode of POLITICO's "Midterm View" video series, Eugene Daniels and Mary Newman dig into the Senate race between Democrat Kyrsten Sinema and Republican Martha McSally. The video

-- MAGGIE SEVERNS in Phoenix: "Inside a secretive billionaire club's plan to help Democrats take Congress"

THE INVESTIGATIONS -- "Roger Stone Sold Himself to Trump's Campaign as a WikiLeaks Pipeline. Was He?" by NYT's Sharon LaFraniere, Mike Schmidt, Maggie Haberman and Danny Hakim: "When the WikiLeaks founder, Julian Assange, appeared on a video link from Europe a month before the 2016 presidential election and vaguely promised to release a flood of purloined documents related to the race, the head of Donald J. Trump's campaign, Stephen K. Bannon, was interested. 

"He emailed the political operative Roger J. Stone Jr., who had been trying to reach him for days about what Mr. Assange might have in store. 'What was that this morning???' Mr. Bannon asked on Oct. 4. 'A load every week going forward," Mr. Stone replied, echoing Mr. Assange's public vow to publish documents on a weekly basis until the Nov. 8 election.

"The email exchange, not previously reported, underscores how Mr. Stone presented himself to Trump campaign officials: as a conduit of inside information from WikiLeaks, Russia's chosen repository for documents hacked from Democratic computers. Mr. Bannon and two other former senior campaign officials have detailed to prosecutors for the special counsel, Robert S. Mueller III, how Mr. Stone created that impression, according to people familiar with their accounts. One of them told investigators that Mr. Stone not only seemed to predict WikiLeaks' actions, but that he also took credit afterward for the timing of its disclosures that damaged Hillary Clinton's candidacy." NYT

-- NYT: "Read the Emails: The Trump Campaign and Roger Stone"

TRUMP'S FRIDAY -- The president will leave the White House at 2:15 p.m. to head to Huntington, W.Va. He will headline a political rally at 4 p.m. Afterward, he will fly to Indianapolis. At 7:15 p.m., Trump will speak at a political rally at Southport High School. He's spending the night in Indianapolis.
       
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TAKE THE PLAYBOOK ELECTION CHALLENGE -- See if you can correctly pick the winning candidates in some of the most competitive House, Senate and gubernatorial races in the country. Sign up today!

SUNDAY SO FAR ... 
          
CBS
 
"Face the Nation": Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.) ... Ronna Romney McDaniel ... Ed O'Keefe and Anthony Salvanto. Panel: Shawna Thomas, Amy Walter, Nancy Cordes and Ben Domenech
   
ABC
 
"This Week": Panel: Jon Karl, Cecilia Vega, Matt Dowd, Chris Christie and Donna Brazile
   
CNN
 
"State of the Union": Ronna Romney McDaniel. Panel: Van Jones, Rick Santorum, Mary Katharine Ham and Jennifer Granholm
   
CNN
 
"Inside Politics": Michael Shear, Maeve Reston, Jeff Zeleny and Seung Min Kim
   
FOX
 
"Fox News Sunday": Rep. Steve Stivers (R-Ohio) ... Rep. Ben Ray Luj&aacute;n (D-N.M.). Panel: Jason Chaffetz, Jason Riley, Liz Marlantes and Mo Elleithee
   
NBC
 
"Meet the Press" live from NBC News election HQ in New York: new NBC News/Wall Street Journal Poll. Panel: Cornell Belcher, Tom Brokaw, Savannah Guthrie, Hugh Hewitt and Kasie Hunt
                         PLAYBOOK READS         

PHOTO DU JOUR: President Donald Trump arrives at a rally Thursday in Columbia, Mo. | Evan Vucci/AP Photo
   
SCOOP -- "The CIA's communications suffered a catastrophic compromise. It started in Iran," by Zach Dorfman and Jenna McLaughlin in Yahoo News: "From around 2009 to 2013, the U.S. intelligence community experienced crippling intelligence failures related to the secret internet-based communications system, a key means for remote messaging between CIA officers and their sources on the ground worldwide. The previously unreported global problem originated in Iran and spiderwebbed to other countries, and was left unrepaired - despite warnings about what was happening - until more than two dozen sources died in China in 2011 and 2012 as a result ...

"Yahoo News' reporting on this global communications failure is based on conversations with eleven former U.S. intelligence and government officials directly familiar with the matter who requested anonymity to discuss sensitive operations. Multiple former intelligence officials said that the damage from the potential global compromise was serious - even catastrophic - and will persist for years." Yahoo

FOR YOUR RADAR -- "Trump Finds Support After the Pittsburgh Massacre, From the Israeli Government," by NYT's Mark Landler: "When President Trump arrived Tuesday at the Tree of Life synagogue in Pittsburgh to pay his respects to the 11 victims of a mass shooting three days earlier, the only public official standing there to greet him was Israel's ambassador to the United States, Ron Dermer. 

"The symbolism was stark, and it didn't end there. A few hours later, another prominent Israeli official, Naftali Bennett, took to Twitter to defend Mr. Trump from critics, including some in the American Jewish community, who said the president's divisive, inflammatory language sowed the seeds for the deadliest anti-Semitic attack in the United States in recent memory." NYT

         
THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION -- "White House concerned Interior Secretary Ryan Zinke violated federal rules," by WaPo's Juliet Eilperin, Josh Dawsey and Lisa Rein: "The White House is growing increasingly concerned about allegations of misconduct against Interior Secretary Ryan Zinke, according to two senior administration officials, and President Trump has asked aides for more information about a Montana land deal under scrutiny by the Justice Department. 

"Trump told his aides that he is afraid Zinke has broken rules while serving as the interior secretary and is concerned about the Justice Department referral, according to the officials ...

"But the president has not indicated whether he will fire the former Navy SEAL and congressman and has asked for more information, the officials said.This week, Interior's Office of Inspector General referred the inquiry - one of several probes into the secretary's conduct - to the Justice Department to determine whether a criminal investigation is warranted. That referral concerns Zinke's involvement in a Whitefish, Mont., land development deal backed by David J. Lesar, chairman of the oil services firm Halliburton." WaPo

THE LATEST ON JAMAL KHASHOGGI -- "Despite Stigma of Khashoggi Killing, Crown Prince Is Seen as Retaining Power," by NYT's David Kirkpatrick and Ben Hubbard in London: "A month after the killing of the Saudi dissident Jamal Khashoggi, the growing international consensus that Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman was behind it has done almost nothing to weaken his grip on power over the kingdom. The crown prince owes his apparent impunity partly to the nature of power in Saudi Arabia's absolute monarchy and to his own proven ruthlessness.

"But he also owes it to the Trump administration. It has decided to stand by him, according to three people familiar with the White House deliberations. Barring a surprise intervention by his aging father, King Salman, there is every expectation that Prince Mohammed, 33, will succeed him and dominate Saudi Arabia for a half-century to come." NYT

WHAT WALL STREET IS READING -- "Goldman Sachs Is Drawn Into Prosecution of Vast Financial Fraud," by NYT's Matthew Goldstein, Alexandra Stevenson and Emily Flitter: "Goldman Sachs is facing one of the most significant scandals in its history, a multibillion-dollar international fraud that investigators say was masterminded by a flamboyant financier with a taste for Hollywood and carried out with help from the Wall Street firm's bankers. 

"Federal prosecutors on Thursday unveiled a guilty plea from one former Goldman Sachs banker and announced bribery and money laundering charges against a second banker, as part of an investigation into the alleged embezzlement of billions of dollars from a state-run investment fund in Malaysia." NYT

MEDIAWATCH -- per Morning Media: "Bill Keller, the founding editor-in-chief of the Marshall Project, plans to retire next year. Keller spent more than three decades at the New York Times, rising to executive editor, before helping launch the nonprofit criminal justice newsroom in 2014. He'll remain on the job until a successor is appointed."
                 PLAYBOOKERS      
REMEMBERING DAN BEST -- Per POLITICO Pulse: "The agency's top drug pricing adviser has passed away, HHS announced on Thursday. Best was previously an executive at CVS Caremark and Pfizer before joining HHS in March. Best 'joined me here at HHS out of a desire to serve the American people by making health care more affordable,' HHS Secretary Alex Azar said in a statement. 

"'He brought his deep expertise and passion to this task with great humility and collegiality. All of us who served with Dan at HHS and in the administration mourn his passing and extend our thoughts and prayers to his wife Lisa and the entire Best family at this difficult time.' Best was closely involved in HHS' recent flurry of drug pricing moves."

ENGAGED -- Brianna Ehley, health reporter for POLITICO, got engaged to Matthew Allen, legislative staffer for Rep. Diana DeGette (D-Colo.). "He proposed on top of a mountain in Shenandoah National Park, where we were hiking to celebrate our 3-year-anniversary." Pic ... The ring

BOOK WATCH -- FRED HOCHBERG, former chairman of the Ex-Im Bank, has signed a book deal with Simon & Schuster to write "Trade is NOT a Four Letter Word." It is expected to be published before the 2020 election.

TRANSITION -- FIRST IN PLAYBOOK: Republican Carolyn Coda, former head of global reinsurance company Swiss Re, is joining Invariant. She will focus on financial services and tax issues for the firm.

BIRTHDAY OF THE DAY: Roger Dow, president and CEO of U.S. Travel Association. How he got his start in his career: "Summer job, while in college, as lifeguard at Marriott's 6th hotel in Saddle Brook, N.J. ... I spent 34 years at Marriott -- last decade as SVP of global sales. I knew the industry, but not GR. I then quickly realized the GR is really all about 'sales' -- you have a position that you need to share with elected officials and clearly/succinctly explain the benefits for them and their constituents. So, GR is really all about sales." Playbook Plus Q&A

BIRTHDAYS: David Sirota is 43 ... Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker is 51 ... Pat Buchanan is 8-0 ... Dougie Simmons (hat tips: Gillum Ferguson and Alexandra Hudson) ... Katie Hogan ... Alan Abbey ... Jonathan Stahler, COS for Sen. Chris Coons (D-Del.) ... POLITICO's Eli Okun and Emily Davol ... Alex Markowits is 45 ... AARP's Bill Walsh is 54 ... Christopher Graves ... John Sampson, managing director of gov't affairs for Microsoft Azure ... WaPo Outlook editor Adam Kushner ... Celeste Lavin of Getty Images ... Victoria Barton ... Melanie Tiano, director of cybersecurity and privacy at CTIA ... Anthony Zurcher, senior North America reporter for BBC News (h/t Ashley Gold) ... EPA alum Sarah
 Greenwalt ... 

... Jay Solomon, senior director for global solutions at APCO Worldwide ... Adam Froemming with the Washington Nationals ... Daniela Pierre-Bravo (h/t Jesse Rodriguez) ... Tony Fazio is 71 ... Sheyla Asencios ... Natalie Johnson of the Washington Free Beacon ... Bush alum William Haldeman ... Monique Jenkins ... Barbara Surk ... Catherine Lyons ... Caitlin Heising ... Steven Capozzola ... Kayla Benker of Civis Analytics ... Clint Nichols ... Aaryn Kopp ... Sarah Smith Elliott, chear of Republicans Overseas UK ... Bloomberg reporter Jen Dlouhy ... Warren Hoemann ... Hastings Woolston ... Mark Benjamin is 48 ... Raynel Knight ... Judy Vale ... Travis Hill ... Mike Vilmain ... Paula Zellner
 ... Anna Landmark ... Patty Judge (h/ts Teresa Vilmain)
       
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