Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score: The runoff possibility in the Georgia gubernatorial race — The last round of battleground polling — Trump and Obama pitch opposing messages on closing weekend
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 05 Nov 2018 09:03:12 -0600
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11/05/2018 10:01 AM EDT
        
By ZACH MONTELLARO ([email-masked]; @ZachMontellaro)

        
Editor's Note: This edition of Free Morning Score is published weekdays at 10 a.m. POLITICO Pro Campaigns subscribers hold exclusive early access to the newsletter each morning at 6 a.m. To learn more about POLITICO Pro's comprehensive policy intelligence coverage, policy tools and services, click here.
          THE TOPLINES         
GEORGIA ON MY MIND - The Georgia gubernatorial race between Democrat Stacey Abrams and Republican Brian Kemp might not be over on Tuesday. If neither candidate breaks 50 percent, it'll go to a runoff - and both campaigns are already preparing for that possibility. Campaign Pro's Daniel Strauss from Atlanta: "[W]hile both Abrams and Kemp have stubbornly maintained that they are focused on winning outright on Tuesday, behind the scenes, their campaigns are already laying groundwork for an extra 28 days on the trail - assembling legal teams for potential legal fights over Tuesday's vote and stockpiling money to jumpstart a runoff campaign. ... Kemp, Georgia's sitting secretary of state, has
 raised nearly a quarter-million dollars since July in funds he can only use for a general election runoff. ... Abrams has raised less specifically for a runoff since July - less than 100,000 ... but her campaign has established a major online fundraising base ...

"Meanwhile, both campaigns have studied up on Georgia's runoff and recount rules and put together teams of lawyers to deal with any issues that come up in Tuesday's vote ahead of a possible runoff, according to multiple people in both parties who are familiar with the preparations."

- And in a frankly shocking charge, Kemp accused the state Democratic Party of trying to hack the state's voter registration system, without providing any evidence to back it up. The Atlanta Journal-Constitution's Mark Niesse: "Kemp's office launched an investigation Sunday into the Democratic Party after an alleged attempt to hack the state's voter registration system. ... The Democratic Party of Georgia called the allegation '100 percent false' and 'an abuse of power' by Kemp's office. ...

"The hacking allegation arose from concerns raised by a computing expert that anyone's voter registration information could be obtained from the state's My Voter Page and voter registration site. ... The website's vulnerability could allow someone to access personal information, such as their driver's license numbers and address, and potentially change voter registration information without permission, said Richard DeMillo, a computer scientist at Georgia Tech."

- 44 and 45 were also both in Georgia over the weekend to rally voters. Here's Daniel's dispatch from former President Barack Obama's rally on Friday, where he hammered Kemp on voting rights. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump touched down in the state on Sunday, where he praised Kemp as a "great leader" and went after Abrams, per the AJC's Tamar Hallerman and Greg Bluestein.

Happy Election Day eve. The next time you hear from me, it'll be the big day! As always, email me at [email-masked] or DM me at @ZachMontellaro.

Email the great Campaign Pro team at [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked] and [email-masked]. Follow them on Twitter: @PoliticoScott @ec_schneider, @JamesArkin and @DanielStrauss4.

Days until the 2018 election: 1
 
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          IN THE TRENCHES         
THE LAST POLITICO RACE RATINGS UPDATE - On the eve of the election, POLITICO's elections guru Steve Shepard has his last updates to our race ratings. You can check out his full breakdown, but some topline takeaways: Steve has 216 House seats in the Democratic column, 197 in the Republican column and 22 toss-ups. Nine gubernatorial races are toss-ups, and the Senate is likely to remain in GOP hands. There are five Senate seats in the toss-up category, and Sen. Heidi Heitkamp (D-N.D.) is the most endangered incumbent, with her race rated as "lean Republican."

POLLS POLLS POLLS - A whole bunch of new polls came out over the weekend, but remember: The only poll that matters is the one that comes on Election Day (I've always wanted to write that).

- A Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll by Selzer and Co. found Democrat Fred Hubbell with a narrow lead over Republican Gov. Kim Reynolds. He has 46 percent to her 44 percent, with the Libertarian at 2 percent (801 likely voters, Oct. 30-Nov. 2).

- An Albuquerque Journal poll conducted by Research & Polling found a tight race in NM-02 between Republican Yvette Herrell and Democrat Xochitl Torres Small. Herrell leads Torres Small, 46 percent to 45 percent (413 likely voters, Oct. 26-Nov. 1).

- Sienna/NYT Upshot wrapped up live polling with new results in a slew of districts (click through for the methodology), all of which are fairly close. In CA-48, Democrat Harley Rouda leads GOP Rep. Dana Rohrabacher, 46 percent to 45 percent. In IL-14, Democrat Lauren Underwood is ahead of GOP Rep. Randy Hultgren, 49 percent to 43 percent. In VA-07, GOP Rep. Dave Brat leads Democrat Abigail Spanberger 46 percent to 44 percent. In NY-19, Democrat Antonio Delgado leads GOP Rep. John Faso, 43 percent to 42 percent. In NY-22, GOP Rep. Claudia Tenney is up on Democrat Anthony Brindisi, 46 percent to 45 percent.

 In IA-04, GOP Rep. Steve King leads Democrat J.D. Scholten, 47 percent to 42 percent. In GA-06, Democrat Lucy McBath leads GOP Rep. Karen Handel, 46 percent to 44 percent. In MI-08, Democrat Elissa Slotkin is ahead of GOP Rep. Mike Bishop, 49 percent to 42 percent. In TX-32, Democrat Colin Allred is ahead of GOP Rep. Pete Sessions, 46 percent to 42 percent. In WA-08, Democrat Kim Schrier is leading Republican Dino Rossi, 48 percent to 45 percent.

THE BATTLE FOR THE HOUSE - With a day to go, House Republicans are worried that the president's immigration rhetoric could cost them in the lower chamber. POLITICO's Rachael Bade, Carla Marinucci and Elana Schor: "[T]hey now fear Trump went overboard - and that it could cost them dearly in key suburban districts, from Illinois to Texas. Many of them have cringed at Trump's threats to unilaterally end birthright citizenship, as well as his recent racially-tinged ad suggesting that immigrants are police killers. The president's drumbeat, they say, is drowning out news any incumbent president would be negligent not to dwell on: that the economy added a quarter-million jobs last quarter, and
 unemployment is below 4 percent. ...

"Indeed, some House Republicans say privately that they feel abandoned, as if Trump has given up on them - the likely losers - in order to focus on the Senate. Rubbing salt in the wound, they feel Trump's message to help Senate Republicans in rural, red states is a direct threat to the House GOP's cause in suburban areas."

NOT WELCOME - Conspicuously missing from the trail this year? Former President Bill Clinton, who's persona non grata among Democrats in the #MeToo era. The New York Times' Lisa Lerer: "The former president, once such a popular political draw that he was nicknamed his party's 'explainer-in-chief,' has only appeared at a handful of private fund-raisers to benefit midterm candidates, according to people close to him. ... Mr. Clinton finds his legacy tarnished by what some in the party see as his inability to reckon with his sexual indiscretions as president with a White House intern, Monica Lewinsky, as well as with past allegations of sexual assault. (Mr. Clinton has denied those
 allegations.) Younger and more liberal voters find little appeal in Mr. Clinton's reputation for ideological centrism on issues like financial regulation and crime."

TRUMPS ON THE TRAIL - The president's eldest son is hitting up six rallies for House candidates today. More from James: Donald Trump Jr. "will campaign in West Virginia, Kentucky, North Carolina, South Carolina and New York on Monday, boosting six House candidates and Patrick Morrisey, the party's nominee in the West Virginia Senate race."

44 VS. 45 - Trump, who has three rallies scheduled for today in Ohio, Indiana and Missouri, will be joined by Sean Hannity, Rush Limbaugh and country music artist Lee Greenwood at the final rally in Missouri, his campaign announced. Besides the aforementioned Georgia rally, Trump also held five other rallies over the weekend (click through for local coverage) in West Virginia, Indiana, Montana, Florida and Tennessee.

- Obama also had a robust rally schedule. He was in Florida, Indiana and Illinois over the weekend. 

EXPANDED BATTLEGROUND - The Congressional Leadership Fund launched a weekend phone-based GOTV campaign in Alaska's at-large district to bolster GOP Rep. Don Young, who is facing a lively challenge from independent Alyse Galvin. POLITICO's Alex Isenstadt reported the effort was backed by six figures. 

- And New Jersey Democrats are still fretting about Sen. Bob Menendez. POLITICO New Jersey's Ryan Hutchins and Matt Friedman: "Democratic strategists working on races across the state said in interviews that they have seen a remarkable decline in support for Menendez as his Republican opponent - former pharmaceutical executive Bob Hugin - poured $36 million of his own wealth into his campaign. Hugin has used much of the money to run a seemingly endless stream of negative campaign ads. Even as public opinion polls show the senator up by double digits, some insiders say a post-summer boost, hoped for by team Menendez, never arrived."

STORM'S A BREWIN' - We could be due for some extreme weather on Election Day. The Washington Post's Ian Livingston: "The storm is set to rapidly develop Monday into Tuesday as it travels from the Southern Plains to the Great Lakes region. Numerous states could be hit by heavy rain and even some tornadoes. ... The Monday night into Tuesday morning time frame could be particularly troublesome in south central United States, as this will be another storm system capable of delivering strong tornadoes, even at night."

MEGABUCKS - GOP megadonors Sheldon and Miriam Adelson have cut huge checks to the super PACs backing House and Senate Republicans this year, and they're closing out the election cycle by writing some smaller ones directly to a collection of endangered House Republicans. Reps. Troy Balderson (OH-12), Rod Blum (IA-01), Claudia Tenney (NY-22), Mike Coffman (CO-06), Jeff Denham (CA-10), John Faso (NY-19), Dave Brat (VA-07), Greg Gianforte (MT-AL), Bruce Poliquin (ME-02), Rodney Davis (IL-13), Peter Roskam (IL-06), Steve Knight (CA-25), Fred Upton (MI-06), David Valadao (CA-21), Kevin Yoder (KS-03) and David Young (IA-03) all got max donations from at least one of the Adelsons in the first days
 of November, as did a handful of non-incumbent GOP House candidates. 

FUTURE OF THE PARTY - For hints on how the Democratic party will look after this election, look at how Kara Eastman does in NE-02. POLITICO's Charlie Mahtesian from Omaha: "[A]n Eastman victory would provide a validation of what the left has long insisted about how the Democratic Party needs to approach elections. The party, the argument goes, has been consigned to a minority in the House for much of the past quarter-century - and has withered at the statehouse level in many states - in no small part because it has been plagued by uninspiring, milquetoast centrists who fail to embrace bold, liberal positions that voters would respond to if given the chance. If Democrats made a habit of
 running authentically liberal candidates who speak from the heart, such as Eastman, progressives contend, they could win almost anywhere. Yet if Eastman loses, her campaign becomes Exhibit A in the Democratic establishment's case against the party's truest believers."

TIME FOR SOME GAME THEORY - Sen. Joe Donnelly and other Indiana Democrats are trying to siphon off support from Republican Mike Braun by boosting the Libertarian candidate. The Daily Beast's Lachlan Markay: "The state Democratic Party began purchasing Facebook ads on Thursday questioning the conservative bona fides of Republican challenger Mike Braun by, among other things, suggesting he backed Hillary Clinton in 2016. The ads, which encouraged voters to back Libertarian Party candidate Lucy Brenton, say they are 'authorized by Donnelly for Indiana,' the campaign of incumbent Democrat Sen. Joe Donnelly. ... That ad and half a dozen like it are being run on two pages titled Tax Hike Mike
 Braun and Hoosier Conservatives. Both pages were created on Wednesday and appear to be nothing but platforms for the Democratic ads they're hosting, though neither says that it's a project of state Democrats."

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "Sometimes I hit up people in the lobby, and I fundraise from that," Republican Omar Navarro, who is running a longshot campaign in CA-43, on campaigning at Trump properties (including the Trump hotel in D.C.), via The Washington Post.
    
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