Subject: Playbook PM: Forecasters lay out final predictions
From: "Anna Palmer Jake Sherman Daniel Lippman" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 05 Nov 2018 12:05:00 -0600
List-Id: <1376319.xt.local>

Presented by BP: Playbook is POLITICO's must-read briefing on what's driving the day in Washington                Nov 05, 2018 View in browser                   
 By Jake Sherman, Anna Palmer, Daniel Lippman, Garrett Ross and Eli Okun 
             
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NEW ... ANNA and JAKE are sitting down with top Republican and Democratic operatives for a "PLAYBOOK ELECTIONS: WHAT'S NEXT?" event to make sense of the 2018 midterms and what the takeaways are going forward. Speakers to be announced soon. DETAILS: Nov. 15 at 5:30 p.m. at The Showroom. RSVP

FOR THE RECORD ... SEAN HANNITY says he's not campaigning with PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP.

-- HANNITY (@seanhannity): "In spite of reports, I will be doing a live show from Cape Girardeau and interviewing President Trump before the rally. To be clear, I will not be on stage campaigning with the President. I am covering final rally for my show. Something I have done in every election in the past."

THE FINAL PREDICTIONS ... 

-- COOK POLITICAL REPORT'S DAVID WASSERMAN: "Final House Ratings: 75 Competitive Races, Ten Rating Changes" 

-- LARRY SABATO and KYLE KONDIK: Dems will pick up 34 House seats.

REMEMBER THESE GUYS?! ... FIVETHIRTYEIGHT gives Dems an 87.3 percent chance of winning the House -- their highest all cycle -- and a 16.7 percent chance of winning the Senate.

WE HAVE BECOME so accustomed to Republican control of the House the last few years that it got us thinking of all that might change if Democrats take control... 

-- WILL TRUMP get the invite to House Democratic Caucus meeting? Former President Barack Obama attended some closed GOP sessions during Republicans' control of Congress.

-- WILL DEMOCRATS ditch plastic in the Capitol cafeterias, again? 

-- WHO gets what offices? Being in the majority is powerful because the speaker can dole out space in the building. Who will get prized office space?

-- WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE SCHEDULE? The last time Democrats had the majority in the House, NANCY PELOSI and STENY HOYER had lawmakers regularly in Washington voting five days a week. Will they go back to Monday night and Friday morning votes?

Good Monday afternoon. THE PRESIDENT TWEETED support for John James, Ron DeSantis, Josh Hawley, Claudia Tenney and Rick Scott this morning.
       
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AROUND THE MIDTERM HORN ... 

-- CHRISTIAN VASQUEZ and MATTHEW CHOI: "Voting machine errors already roil Texas and Georgia races": "The errors - which experts have blamed on outdated software and old machines - would appear to work to the advantage of Republican Texas Sen. Ted Cruz over Democratic challenger Beto O'Rourke, and that of Georgia GOP gubernatorial candidate Brian Kemp over Democrat Stacey Abrams. ... [T]he latest episodes come after at least a decade and a half of warnings from election security groups about the dangers of relying on voting machines that don't produce a paper trail." POLITICO

-- NYT'S MAGGIE HABERMAN: "Donald Trump Jr. Emerges as the G.O.P. 'Relief Pitcher' of 2018": "Visits from President Trump have been a double-edged sword for Republican candidates in certain states, who want his backing but who fear blanket media coverage of his controversial statements.

"A guest appearance by Donald Trump Jr. has become the next best thing for several candidates, some of whom he's campaigned for repeatedly in states like Montana (where his father holds a grudge against Senator Jon Tester, who is up for re-election), Ohio (a key part of the Trump 2016 victory), Nevada (a purple state that Mr. Trump would like to add to his column in 2020) and North Dakota and West Virginia (which, like the others, have high-profile Senate races this year). He is scheduled to headline six rallies in five states on Monday." NYT 

-- NANCY SCOLA: "Experts warn the social media threat this election is homegrown": "In many cases, the people are adopting the same tactics that Russian operatives used in 2016 to disrupt the U.S. presidential election. ... 

"[A] bigger worry is that more targeted disruption or suppression efforts will appear on Election Day, such as posts that mislead about polling place closing times or discourage people from voting via fake pictures of people being bused into the wrong district. The perpetrators, say experts, range from bored pranksters to partisans executing dirty tricks. ... Election watchdogs say the country isn't well prepared to separate true and false claims." POLITICO

-- "Women Candidates Are Breaking Records And EMILY's List Expects 2020 To Be Even Bigger," by BuzzFeed's Ema O'Connor: "EMILY's List, a major PAC that helps 'pro-choice, Democratic women' run for office, has raised and spent a record-breaking $110 million on the midterm elections." BuzzFeed

-- MEDIUM BUYING (@MediumBuying): "MS-Sen: Cindy Hyde-Smith is placing a new TV buy. Start date is Wednesday, 11/7."

HOW TO THINK ABOUT THE RESULTS ... 

-- NBC'S HEIDI PRZYBYLA in Richmond: "Gauging the wave: Look to Virginia for early signs of 'suburban revolt'": "The [Dave Brat] race is seen as a bellwether for whether college-educated suburban voters - especially so-called 'Panera moms' who traditionally vote Republican - will repudiate Trump and his brand of politics by voting Democratic or staying home.

"David Wasserman, House race analyst for the Cook Political Report, says it will be among the first races he'll be watching on Election Night, with polls closing in the state at 7 p.m. EST." NBC

-- KEVIN YAMAMURA from POLITICO's new Sacramento office: "If the House comes down to California, get ready to wait"

ON THE WORLD STAGE -- AS SANCTIONS TAKE EFFECT ... NAHAL TOOSI: "Memes, hashtags and 'hypocritical holy men': Trump's information war on Iran": "The information campaign is arguably the most comprehensive the U.S. has ever run against Iran ... Even some critics of Trump's overarching Iran policy concede the messaging element is surprisingly creative and intense. ... 

"In addition to predictable denunciations of Iran's military and terrorist actions, the U.S. has highlighted Iran's water shortages and smog-filled air, detailed the financial corruption of the country's leaders and told the gut-wrenching stories of individual Iranian prisoners. ... The Iranian government has punched back with its own messaging offensive." POLITICO

-- CAITLIN OPRYSKO and NAHAL TOOSI: "Iranian president vows he will defy new U.S. sanctions" 

NANCY COOK: "'King of the world': Trump to ditch D.C. for Paris days after midterms": "Trump may meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin, who will also attend the celebration at Paris's Arc de Triomphe. French President Emmanuel Macron will likely want to discuss fresh U.S. sanctions Trump has slapped on Iran which Paris and other Western European allies strongly oppose. ...

"Foreign policy experts predict he'll use his bully pulpit to shift the conversation to foreign policy and national security, especially if Republicans lose the House as many Republicans expect and suffer loses at the state level. This will give the chance to remind the world he's commander-in-chief regardless of any election results." POLITICO 

         
THE INVESTIGATIONS ... NYT'S ANDREW HIGGINS and KEN VOGEL: "Two Capitals, One Russian Oligarch: How Oleg Deripaska Is Trying to Escape U.S. Sanctions": "[S]idestepping the business sanctions is not Mr. Deripaska's only goal. ... Removing the personal sanctions would eliminate substantial barriers to his doing business in the United States and around the world, and could be a requirement for him to get his hands on the money - potentially billions of dollars - resulting from any sale of part of his stake in the companies. ...

"The elaborate influence operation highlights one of the fastest-growing elements of the lobbying business: helping deep-pocketed foreign interests massage the sanctions, tariffs and other tools deployed by Mr. Trump against foreign governments, individuals and industries." NYT 

COMING ATTRACTIONS? -- ADAM CANCRYN: "Would Republicans take another shot at Obamacare?": "If an election-night shocker keeps Republicans in power - rebuking the conventional wisdom that voters will punish them for their Obamacare attacks - they might be emboldened to mount another repeal push without risking reprisals at the polls next time around. ... Still, there's little appetite among lawmakers to jump right back into the all-consuming brawl that dealt them their most embarrassing loss of the Trump era and energized Democratic opposition." POLITICO 

DEPT. OF THINGS THAT WILL PROBABLY NOT HAPPEN ... THE HILL: "Pence says Trump to push infrastructure package during lame duck" 

QUOTE DU JOUR -- "The Demise of the Moderate Republican: Ryan Costello, a centrist wonk, ran for Congress to solve problems-but his colleagues fell in line with Trump's parade of resentment," by The New Yorker's George Packer: "'It's f----- up,' Costello said. 'I think the far left and the far right look at people like me, and they say we're the problem. And I actually think, No, we're the answer. But what you hear and what you get is just ugliness toward you.'" The New Yorker 

AFTERNOON READ -- WAPO'S PAUL KANE and PROPUBLICA'S DEREK WILLIS: "Laws and disorder: Today's Congress is dominated by party leaders and functions as a junior partner to the executive, an analysis by The Post and ProPublica finds": "For more than 200 years, Congress operated largely as the country's founders envisioned - forging compromises on the biggest issues of the day while asserting its authority to declare war, spend taxpayer money and keep the presidency in check.

"Today, on the eve of a closely fought election that will determine who runs Capitol Hill, that model is effectively dead. It has been replaced by a weakened legislative branch in which debate is strictly curtailed, party leaders dictate the agenda, most elected representatives rarely get a say, and government shutdowns are a regular threat because of chronic failures to agree on budgets, according to a new analysis of congressional data and documents by The Washington Post and ProPublica." WaPo 

MEDIAWATCH -- Viviana Hurtado is now an on-air reporter at Bloomberg covering global business, finance, and economic news. 

-- The Washington Post is launching the Press Freedom Partnership, a new initiative advocating for a free press and journalists' rights around the world. The announcement

TRANSITION -- Paul Reagan will be SVP and director of federal government affairs at McGuireWoods starting in December. He previously was chief of staff for former Virginia Gov. Terry McAuliffe and former Sen. Jim Webb (D-Va.).

SPOTTED: Al Franken at the Wisconsin Avenue Whole Foods.

ENGAGED -- Carly Shanahan, VP of PR at Fox News, got engaged to Brenden Bailey, who works in the finance industry. The couple met four years ago at an Easter pig roast in New York City. Pic

WEEKEND WEDDINGS -- OBAMA ALUMNI: Astri Kimball, a senior policy counsel at Google and former deputy counsel to former VP Joe Biden, married Hugo Van Dyke, a statistics professor at American University. The outdoor ceremony took place on Tilghman Island on Maryland's Eastern Shore. Rep. Don Beyer (D-Va.) and his wife, Megan, officiated. Pic

SPOTTED: Charlie Anderson, Nikki Buffa, Damian Bednarz, Laura Gins, Jake Heller, Missy Owens, Rod O'Connor, Katie Oyama, Josh Pollack, Shilpa Phadke, Kate Shaw and Chris Hayes.

-- Sarah Muntzing, director of strategic operations at 2U and a POLITICO alum, married Zach Riggle, director of operations at the U.S. Soccer Foundation, this weekend at Meridian House in D.C. Pic ... Another pic

-- Neil Shenai, senior adviser to the undersecretary for international affairs at Treasury, married Daphne Morrison, Latin America regional manager for ethics and compliance at Goldcorp. With a pic: NYT
               
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