Subject: POLITICO Huddle: WILL REPUBLICANS HOLD THE HOUSE? -- What a Dem win means for Trump -- 36M VOTE EARLY -- How Dems got free rent
From: "POLITICO Huddle" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 06 Nov 2018 07:03:11 -0600
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11/06/2018 08:01 AM EDT

By Nolan D. McCaskill ([email-masked] or @NolanDMcCaskill)
 
With an assist from Burgess Everett
 
CAN REPUBLICANS KEEP THEIR POWER? -- President Donald Trump appears to accept the polling and projections that indicate Democrats will win the House and Republicans will maintain or expand their Senate majority, as evidenced by the president's Senate and gubernatorial-focused campaign sprint in the lead-up to Election Day. Apparently resigned to losing the House, Trump told reporters "I don't care" if Democrats pursue his tax returns. "They can do whatever they want, and I can do whatever I want." 
 
"Working for President Donald Trump has never been easy, but his staffers can expect a whole new level of mayhem if Democrats win control of the House on Tuesday," Andrew Restuccia and Darren Samuelsohn warn. "Democratic control of even one chamber of Congress would unleash an onslaught of hearings, subpoenas and document demands as lawmakers investigate everything from the president's personal tax returns to his controversial policies on immigration, health care and the environment." Veterans of past White Houses say oversight "can make daily life in the White House unbearable for senior officials and their aides," they write. Much more: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=47cb7ca7f70f79b89a0a332250fe36050fc94a1dfb10796c7e033dbd3f7ed38fcd23c3628518026db1b3800c0ac8bd32 
 
Related: "What If They Blow It? Democrats Contemplate a Red Wave Abyss," by Esquire's Ryan Lizza: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=47cb7ca7f70f79b8124c398cb98f71627cfc71542d206adab402050e9ad1bc3f352a58c6166510635056df3de3d62b8b and "A Democratic Senate May Hinge on Arizona and Nevada. Could They Flip?" from The New York Times' Lisa Lerer and Jose A. Del Real: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=47cb7ca7f70f79b88437d0a16d796824e4ca0f2ea40b99042173b47e3a169229dabc5ba81fd5b6da7cdcc180cdfce93f 
 
EARLY VOTE NUMBERS -- More than 36 million ballots have already been cast, setting the stage for an unusually high turnout for a midterm year. "The high voting rates have transformed expectations about who will show up in the midterms -- and they could inspire results that diverge from any pre-election polls that did not reckon with this year's unusually high enthusiasm," Zach Montellaro reports. "Analysts cautioned against drawing broad conclusions about which party could gain an advantage from the high early vote totals. But they did note that pre-election polls make built-in assumptions about how many people will vote, and pollsters who leaned too heavily on past midterm turnout may have
 misfired." Much more: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=47cb7ca7f70f79b8d539fa077ff12af191d1e39cd4154b7254a35c79c90e60d1e0356dff5130a6962bcb675d8a686528 
 
Related read: "Am I Registered to Vote? Answers to Common Questions on Election Day," via The New York Times' Julia Jacobs: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=47cb7ca7f70f79b81adf764937465cd07db464784b9e40390bf56738d0fe285849a1a1c2bd166fc6adf10ffc2bcc587e 
 
NO EVIDENCE, NO PROBLEM -- The president floated his own evidence-free claim that voter fraud may threaten the results of the midterm elections, tweeting that law enforcement will "closely" monitor any illegal voting. Attorney General Jeff Sessions also announced that DOJ's Civil Rights Division will look out for compliance with federal voting rights laws by dispatching officials to jurisdictions in 19 states. Fraud, Sessions said, "corrupts the integrity of the ballot" and "will not be tolerated." Trump told reporters that, based on his opinion and "proof," a lot of people succeed in voting illegally. 
 
Reality check: "There is no evidence of widespread voter fraud in the United States," The Washington Post's Amy Gardner writes. "Trump formed a commission to study the issue shortly after he took office that was disbanded without finding evidence of fraud after states refused to turn over voter data. Voting rights advocates denounced Trump's remarks as a blatant attempt to intimidate voters on the eve of Election Day -- and part of a pattern among Republicans, they said, to curtail voting access with strict rules that disproportionately affect voters of color who tend to vote Democratic." More: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=47cb7ca7f70f79b82e040515f22ac7aea8089a061e87d18129be73ff54b3c3bad0e7060cb19e560d69e72753927ccb48 
 
Related: "10 places where the 2018 midterms will be won and lost," by Charlie Mahtesian: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=47cb7ca7f70f79b8749a07efee2da494b20a2570cf1a6e3b153f9d4422dbe25d8a94c0e1ddc7028676bed9b0ba846031 
 
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GOOD MORNING! Thanks for reading Huddle, the play-by-play guide to all things Capitol Hill, on this Tuesday, Nov. 6.
 
MONDAY'S MOST CLICKED: Steven Shepard's report on POLITICO's final race ratings was the winner.
 
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HOW TRUMP WILL SPEND ELECTION DAY -- President Donald Trump has no public events on his schedule today. But White House press secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders said Trump "will spend today making phone calls, monitoring congressional, Senate and gubernatorial races across the country and meeting with his political team for real-time updates." In the evening, Sanders added, the president and first lady will have family and friends join them in the residence to watch returns. More: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=47cb7ca7f70f79b8e2d9868c40b39816c8a1e9d46e32d7f63dbc9fb81fa5bebd77e09ec7410a784f211e712e7ccdff9c 
 
Related reads: "'No idea what's going to happen': News outlets prepare for midterm surprises," from Michael Calderone and Jason Schwartz: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=47cb7ca7f70f79b88ca86df0fb59a7dab8d9c63ad72f00abd72647286aa9cc02d5f2ada4d48c85be12bb586f60f2d35c and "Trump's GOP Braces for Midwest Massacre," via Tim Alberta: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=47cb7ca7f70f79b865eba385b889a1b8f950e641829c364de965fa7ea500d3c05eaefe35e3605ff0b0e2274cf098c1ad 
 
LUJAN EYES RUN FOR ASSISTANT DEM LEADER -- DCCC Chairman Ben Ray Luj&aacute;n (D-N.M.) is preparing to run for assistant Democratic leader, with the assumption that Democrats win the House and the top three leaders become speaker, majority leader and majority whip. Reps. Cheri Bustos (D-Ill.) and David Cicilline (D-R.I.) have already announced their candidacies. "A Democratic chief of staff said Luj&aacute;n would be the favorite in that contest since Democrats would be eager to reward the New Mexico lawmaker if he shepherds the party to victory on Tuesday," The Hill's Scott Wong and Mike Lillis write. "But a Luj&aacute;n run could complicate the race, because many members have committed
 their support to Bustos or Cicilline." More: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=47cb7ca7f70f79b8557f7a3c4aaa7b1672ced3f0074e18ce726f9a6e1f14801ef7f304d0cdb78b288a37ef2119683ad7 
 
Related: "How Democrats Got to the Precipice of a House Majority," by National Journal's Ally Mutnick: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=47cb7ca7f70f79b8232025d5e5ce091ff85f85a82f6d487a531a696fbb6969b646de6b8ad0463e4a698aad3e425445dc and "'I know the ropes': Pelosi makes her case for leader as Democrats chase House majority," from The Washington Post's Mike DeBonis: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=47cb7ca7f70f79b87c228146fda1584a8fb632507891da153d50062186c5f308445793f99ffd0a7d78d58692e521b36f 
 
MURPHY'S HALF MILLION: Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) has been feeling good enough about his own reelection campaign to direct $500,000 to the DSCC to help his endangered colleagues. Murphy has transferred $180,000 from his Friends of Chris Murphy and raised $320,000 to the DSCC through donors and events. Perhaps not so coincidentally, he's been one of the most bullish Democrats on picking up seats tonight.
 
GRAHAM SIGNALS SESSIONS' RESIGNATION -- Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) told conservative radio host Hugh Hewitt that Attorney General Jeff Sessions will "probably" resign and predicted a new nominee will be confirmed "most likely early next year." Graham could oversee the process for replacing Sessions if Senate Republicans keep their majority and Judiciary Committee Chairman Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) chairs the Senate Finance Committee, opening the door for Graham to lead the judiciary panel. "Graham, whose fiery, nationally televised defense of Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh amid accusations of sexual misconduct drew widespread attention, said that Democrats' 'complete destruction' of
 Kavanaugh during his confirmation process would begin a new chapter for the Judiciary Committee," Caitlin Oprysko writes. More: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=47cb7ca7f70f79b88be9c807ec37e1bf8246b10fa237390492a33d050c3ccca54ed92f5ce4a1b1ef159f296521fc28a8 
 
Related read: "Trump prepares to remake his Cabinet," per CNN's Jeff Zeleny, Kevin Liptak, Laura Jarrett and Barbara Starr: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=47cb7ca7f70f79b8ef0cf14d89f47946c93be532f2e166cd01bfdb96479d5d845253d9060032ba0ac611c44aa3a34323 
 
LAW AND DISORDER -- Gone are the days when Congress compromised on the day's biggest issues and exercised its authority to declare war, spend taxpayer funds and provide a check on the presidency. "It has been replaced by a weakened legislative branch in which debate is strictly curtailed, party leaders dictate the agenda, most elected representatives rarely get a say, and government shutdowns are a regular threat because of chronic failures to agree on budgets," The Washington Post's Paul Kane and ProPublica's Derek Willis report based off an analysis of congressional data and documents. 
 
Since Barack Obama was elected president, the analysis found, "the political center has largely evaporated [and] party leaders have adhered to the demands of their bases, while rules and traditions that long encouraged deliberative dealmaking have given way to partisan gridlock," they write. "While few of these changes made headlines, taken together they have fundamentally altered the way Congress operates -- and morphed this equally powerful branch of government into one that functions more as a junior partner to the executive, or doesn't function at all when it comes to the country's pressing priorities." Much more: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=47cb7ca7f70f79b8e3b0e1ce099ebc307fc8e8398e553d23753b0701c2fead66e341d2108a425f42a1c1d922904a73d1 
 
PROBLEM SOLVERS? -- Republican members of the bipartisan 48-person Problem Solvers Caucus have touted their involvement in the group in debates, interviews and ads. "But to some critics in both parties, the Problem Solvers offer little more than a thin veneer of bipartisanship that clouds rather than clarifies the stakes of the 2018 midterm elections -- an election-year talking point that vulnerable incumbents can tout without accomplishing much," The Washington Post's Jeff Stein writes. On average, the group's GOP members have voted in line with the White House 93 percent of the time. "Everyone I talked to said, 'This group has done almost nothing,'" said Andrew Grant, the Republican
 candidate challenging Rep. Ami Bera (D-Calif.). More: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=47cb7ca7f70f79b8e35edc219b984baad0fab209036f3979ee80cbdb7aa25bbdb39a652ff69d922d544156e992e00965 
 
Related: "The Demise of the Moderate Republican," by The New Yorker's George Packer: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=47cb7ca7f70f79b8b049d0d7f6f3e5969596fcbd6a9a52b20fb0d3101b3ab3fc60b95f95c6cfb6922a7bd1896fc074b7 
 
FREE RENT -- House Democrats have exploited campaign finance law to pay rent for dozens of candidates' campaign offices this year. According to FEC records, some Democrats have paid zero rent for their campaign headquarters, while others who rented space this year abruptly stopped some or all of their payments after their primaries. The DCCC has picked up the tab, spending more than $1 million in rent in 22 states this cycle. "The spending ... comes from a special fund established under a 2014 law that the DCCC can use only to maintain party headquarters buildings -- not for other conventional campaign activities," Scott Bland reports. House Republicans, who don't have a similar program,
 are crying foul. More: http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=47cb7ca7f70f79b872f4130f8d73fedf7ca758afe5814d09471f9fd176bc35aa99aafd55c4495a5eda23dbffe9587d9d 
 
TODAY IN CONGRESS -- The House and Senate are out.
 
MONDAY'S TRIVIA WINNER -- Brian Smith was first to correctly guess that 1996 is the last time a presidential election fell on Nov. 5. Bill Clinton and Bob Dole were the Democratic and Republican nominees, respectively. 
 
TODAY'S TRIVIA -- From Brian: In what year was the last presidential election held on Nov. 1, who were the two candidates and who won the election? The first person to correctly guess gets a mention in the next edition of Huddle. Send your best guess my way: [email-masked].
 
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