Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score: Democrats take back the House — Republicans expand Senate majority — Democrats net 7 governorships, including Wisconsin, but lose Florida
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
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Date: Wed, 07 Nov 2018 09:01:09 -0600
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11/07/2018 10:00 AM EDT
        
By ZACH MONTELLARO ([email-masked]; @ZachMontellaro)

        
Editor's Note: This edition of Free Morning Score is published weekdays at 10 a.m. POLITICO Pro Campaigns subscribers hold exclusive early access to the newsletter each morning at 6 a.m. To learn more about POLITICO Pro's comprehensive policy intelligence coverage, policy tools and services, click here. 
          THE TOPLINES         
THE NIGHT'S BIG HEADLINE - Democrats take control of the House, Republicans expand their hold in the Senate. Welcome to an era of divided governance. As of early Wednesday morning, Democrats have clinched 220 seats in the House, Republicans have 194 seats and 21 seats remain uncalled - including a half-dozen California battleground races that could take a while to settle. In the Senate, Republicans have clinched 51 seats while Democrats have 45 seats, with four races uncalled. Two gubernatorial races remain uncalled, and Democrats netted 7 seats so far.

The theme: Suburban voters revolted against President Donald Trump, turning House maps drawn by Republicans in 2011 and 2012 inside-out in districts around the country. But in Florida and Ohio, among a few other key battleground states, the suburban exodus from the GOP was outmatched by rural enthusiasm that boosted Gov.-elect Ron DeSantis in Florida, for example. And in key red-state Senate races, there simply wasn't a big enough suburban cushion for Democratic senators to withstand this realignment.

See all our House results here and our Senate results here.

THE HOUSE - Democrats flipped 29 Republican-held seats - about half of which were carried by Hillary Clinton in the last presidential election.

AZ-02: Former Democratic Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick beat Republican Lea Marquez Peterson.

CO-06: Democrat Jason Crow beat GOP Rep. Mike Coffman.

FL-26: Democrat Debbie Mucarsel-Powell defeated GOP Rep. Carlos Curbelo.

FL-27: Democrat Donna Shalala beat Republican Maria Elvira Salazar.

IA-01: Democrat Abby Finkenauer defeated GOP Rep. Rod Blum.

IA-03: Democrat Cindy Axne defeated GOP Rep. David Young.

IL-06: Democrat Sean Casten beat Republican GOP Rep. Peter Roskam.

IL-14: Democrat Lauren Underwood defeated GOP Rep. Randy Hultgren.

KS-03: Democrat Sharice Davids beat GOP Rep. Kevin Yoder.

MI-11: Democrat Haley Stevens beat Republican Lena Epstein.

MN-02: Democrat Angie Craig beat GOP Rep. Jason Lewis.

MN-03: Democrat Dean Phillips beat GOP Rep. Erik Paulsen.

NJ-02: Democrat Jeff Van Drew beat Republican Steve Grossman.

NJ-07: Democrat Tom Malinowski beat Republican Rep. Leonard Lance.

NJ-11: Democrat Mikie Sherrill beat Republican Jay Webber.

NY-11: Democrat Max Rose beat Republican Rep. Dan Donovan.

NY-19: Democratic Antonio Delgado beat GOP Rep. John Faso.

NY-22: Democrat Anthony Brindisi defeated GOP Rep. Claudia Tenney.

OK-05: Democrat Kendra Horn beat GOP Rep. Steve Russell.

PA-05: Democrat Mary Scanlon defeated Republican Pearl Kim.

PA-06: Democrat Chrissy Houlahan beat Republican Greg McCauley.

PA-07: Democrat Susan Wild beat Republican Marty Nothstein.

PA-17: Democratic Rep. Conor Lamb defeated GOP Rep. Keith Rothfus.

SC-01: Democrat Joe Cunningham defeated Republican Katie Arrington.

TX-07: Democrat Lizzie Fletcher defeated GOP Rep. John Culberson.

TX-32: Democrat Colin Allred defeated GOP Rep. Pete Sessions.

VA-02: Democrat Elaine Luria defeated Republican Rep. Scott Taylor.

VA-07: Democrat Abigail Spanberger defeated GOP Rep. Dave Brat.

VA-10: Democrat Jennifer Wexton beat GOP Rep. Barbara Comstock.

Republicans flipped two Democratic seats:

MN-08: Republican Pete Stauber beat Democrat Joe Radinovich.

PA-14: Republican Guy Reschenthaler defeated Democrat Bibiana Boerio. (This seat is nominally the one Lamb gave up after redistricting to run against Rothfus.)

And the GOP held five races we rated as toss-ups:

KS-02: Republican Steve Watkins defeated Democrat Paul Davis.

KY-06: GOP Rep. Andy Barr defeated Democrat Amy McGrath.

NC-02: GOP Rep. George Holding defeated Democrat Linda Coleman.

OH-12: GOP Rep. Troy Balderson defeated Democrat Danny O'Connor.

PA-01: GOP Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick defeated Democrat Scott Wallace.

The 21 House races that remain uncalled (19 GOP-held seats and 2 Democratic ones):

AZ-01: Democratic Rep. Tom O'Halleran vs. Republican Wendy Rogers.

CA-10: GOP Rep. Jeff Denham vs. Democrat Josh Harder.

CA-25: GOP Rep. Steve Knight vs. Democrat Katie Hill.

CA-39: Republican Young Kim vs. Democrat Gil Cisneros.

CA-45: GOP Rep. Mimi Walters vs. Democrat Katie Porter.

CA-48: GOP Rep. Dana Rohrabacher vs. Democrat Harley Rouda.

CA-49: Republican Diane Harkey vs. Democrat Mike Levin.

CA-50: GOP Rep. Duncan Hunter vs. Democrat Ammar Campa-Najjar.

GA-06: GOP Rep. Karen Handel vs. Democrat Lucy McBath.

GA-07: GOP Rep. Rob Woodall vs. Democrat Carolyn Bourdeaux.

ME-02: GOP Rep. Bruce Poliquin vs. Democrat Jared Golden.

MI-08: GOP Rep. Mike Bishop vs. Democrat Elissa Slotkin (Bishop has conceded, however).

MN-01: Democrat Dan Feehan vs. Republican Jim Hagedorn.

MT-AL: GOP Rep. Greg Gianforte vs. Democrat Kathleen Williams.

NJ-03: GOP Rep. Tom MacArthur vs. Democrat Andy Kim.

NM-02: Republican Yvette Herrell vs. Democrat Xochitl Torres Small.

NC-09: Republican Mark Harris vs. Democrat Dan McCready.

TX-23: GOP Rep. Will Hurd vs. Democrat Gina Ortiz Jones.

UT-04: GOP Rep. Mia Love vs. Democrat Ben McAdams.

WA-03: GOP Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler vs. Democrat Carolyn Long.

WA-08: Republican Dino Rossi vs. Democrat Kim Schrier.

THE SENATE - Republicans flipped North Dakota (GOP Rep. Kevin Cramer beat Democratic Sen. Heidi Heitkamp), Indiana (Republican Mike Braun beat Democratic Sen. Joe Donnelly) and Missouri (Republican Josh Hawley beat Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill).

Democrats flipped Nevada (Democratic Rep. Jacky Rosen beat GOP Sen. Dean Heller.)

Democrat-held Florida and Montana remain uncalled, as does GOP-held Arizona. Democratic Sens. Debbie Stabenow (Michigan), Sherrod Brown (Ohio), Bob Casey (Pennsylvania) and Tammy Baldwin (Wisconsin) won reelection, while Rep. Marsha Blackburn kept Tennessee for the GOP and Sen. Ted Cruz won reelection in Texas. And GOP Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith is favored in her runoff against Democrat Mike Espy in Mississippi.

THE GOVERNORS - Connecticut: The race between Republican Bob Stefanowski and Democrat Ned Lamont remains uncalled.

Florida: Former GOP Rep. Ron DeSantis beat Democrat Andrew Gillum.

Georgia: The race between Republican Brian Kemp and Democrat Stacey Abrams remains uncalled.

Iowa: GOP Gov. Kim Reynolds beat Democrat Fred Hubbell.

Kansas Democrat Laura Kelly defeated Republican Kris Kobach.

Maine: Democrat Janet Mills beat Republican Shawn Moody.

Nevada: Democrat Steve Sisolak beat Republican Adam Laxalt.

Ohio: Republican Mike DeWine beat Democrat Richard Cordray.

South Dakota: GOP Rep. Kristi Noem beat Democrat Billie Sutton.

Wisconsin: Democrat Tony Evers beat Republican Gov. Scott Walker.

Good Wednesday morning. That was quite a cycle, wasn't it? We'll follow all the races through the end. As always, email me at [email-masked] or DM me at @ZachMontellaro.

Email the great Campaign Pro team at [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked] and [email-masked]. Follow them on Twitter: @PoliticoScott @ec_schneider, @JamesArkin and @DanielStrauss4.

Days until the 2020 election: 727

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          IN THE TRENCHES         
HOW IT HAPPENED - Here's the inside track on how the Democrats took the House, from my great colleagues Tim Alberta and Elena Schneider: "After two years of rollercoaster news cycles driven by a president who thrives on turmoil and governs with a showman's attention to shiny objects, Democrats stormed back into the House majority by following a simple rule: Don't take the president's bait.

"Voter participation was high across ideological and demographic lines, with both parties effectively nationalizing local and statewide races. But whereas Trump sought to make the election all about himself, Democratic candidates were remarkably disciplined in focusing the electorate's energy on the alleged failures of his party: Republican tax reform that exploded the deficit and disproportionately benefited the wealthy; Republican efforts to take away health care access from millions of people; and Republican politicians whose acquiescence to Trump deepened the country's partisan divide and further diminished its faith in government.

"Winning the House represented the culmination of a master plan that was simple and straightforward. With Trump and his fellow Republicans expecting a full-frontal assault on the president himself, leading Democrats-from House leader Nancy Pelosi, to Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee chairman Ben Ray Luj&aacute;n, to the party's biggest donors and elder statesmen-advised House candidates to run hyper-local, non-hysterical campaigns that made little mention of the president."

- And here's how Republicans expanded their majority in the Senate, from my equally great colleagues Burgess Everett and James Arkin: "Across the country Democrats [like Missouri Sen. Claire McCaskill] outraised their Republican opponents and built field operations that they hoped would weather a brutal Senate map that tilted heavily in Republicans' favor. But this time, it wasn't enough: Opponent Josh Hawley won by 6 points, exorcising the party's demons in Missouri, and probably three other Democratic incumbents went down alongside her despite battle-hardened campaigns and big financial advantages.

"Trump's popularity and swaggering campaign presence was simply too much for even the best-run campaigns. Republicans avoided the kind of devastating gaffes that boosted McCaskill and Sen. Joe Donnelly (D-Ind.) in 2012, and unlike that year, there was no presidential campaign to boost Democratic turnout. ...

"The suburbs may have gone for House Democrats, but the Senate map was so bad that sweeping Democratic enthusiasm did nothing to dent the Republican majority. In fact, its majority grew. ... Trump's personal investment in the Senate sealed the deal. He crisscrossed the country, hitting some states multiple times - all the while delivering sound bites that Republican hopefuls used to promote themselves and bash their opponents."

THE SPIN - President Donald Trump is celebrating the night as a success, despite the new reality of split governance in Washington. POLITICO's Christopher Cadelago and Andrew Restuccia: "The Trump White House seized on the GOP's defense of the Senate and what it suggested would be limited House GOP losses to portray Democrats as falling flat amid sky-high expectations. 'Tremendous success tonight,' Trump wrote in a tweet. 'Thank you to all!' ... The night's results did bring good news for Trump. The president's gut-level gamble to make himself an argument for retaining Republican control of that chamber paid off, completing his transformation from bombastic interloper to his party's titular
 head, and giving the White House a major consolation prize. ...

"But the GOP's failure to hold the House was an undeniable blow, despite some Trump allies musing privately that Trump might benefit from having a newly empowered enemy to vilify. Divided government effectively quashes Trump's hopes for an active legislative agenda in the next two years. And Democrats armed with subpoenas will likely demand everything from Trump's tax returns to more information about his 2016 campaign's contacts with Russia."

WHAT COMES NEXT - Democrats were jubilant after taking the House. POLITICO's John Bresnahan and Rachael Bade: "The Democratic triumph could also propel Nancy Pelosi back to the speaker's chair after eight years in the minority, a historic comeback that would add to the California Democrat's already legendary career. It would make her the most important Democrat in the country - and favorite foil for Trump - until Democrats pick their 2020 presidential nominee. Pelosi has not formally announced that she will run for speaker but is expected to do so on Wednesday. Pelosi will have to win over 218 Democrats to win the speaker's gavel, which may not be easy since a cluster of Democratic
 candidates who won Tuesday night have said they will not back her. ...

"Trump called Pelosi Tuesday night to congratulate her on the Democratic victory and the two talked bipartisanship, but the conflicts ahead will be heated. And Pelosi hinted at the clash to come in her speech to Democrats after the House flipped. 'Today is about... restoring the Constitution and checks and balance to the Trump administration,' Pelosi told the crowd."

THE PAIN POINT - Despite their good night in the House, Democrats lost the gubernatorial race in Florida and are trailing in the Senate race. POLITICO Florida's Marc Caputo: "Tuesday night brought home two truths: Florida is Trump Country, and the Florida Democratic Party is lost from what one activist called 'soul crushing' defeats. ... For the third straight general election in a row, the Florida Democratic Party's top candidates got shellacked. But unlike in past election losses, there are no easy scapegoats, no simple answers to what happened to Gillum and Nelson, who has not conceded the race. ...

"The party did have some wins. It flipped two Republican-held congressional seats in Miami-Dade County and flipped a net of six Florida House seats. However the Florida Legislature remains firmly controlled by the GOP. Florida Senate Democrats also won none of their targeted races, but one of the contests is headed to a recount."

YEAR OF THE WOMAN - A record number of women are headed to Capitol Hill. POLITICO's Elana Schor: "The women winning House seats also marked several milestones for diverse representation beyond the gender divide, including the first Native American women in Congress and the first Muslim women in Congress. Their victories mark an undeniable leap forward toward representation on Capitol Hill that more closely resembles the divide among the U.S. population, although women still have a long way to go before reaching parity in both the House and Senate.

"Wins for female candidates on Tuesday night weren't limited to Congress, with Maine and South Dakota electing their first female governors. Nor were they confined to Democrats, even though they far outpaced the GOP in terms of fielding female candidates. Republican Rep. Marsha Blackburn handily won her race to become Tennessee's first female senator".

727 DAYS - That's how many days we have left until the 2020 elections... And if you're in denial, they've already kicked off. POLITICO's Eliana Johnson, Alex Isenstadt and Alex Thompson: "As president Donald Trump absorbed Tuesday night's mixed election returns, two key allies were by his side in the White House: one of his 2016 campaign managers, Corey Lewandowski, and the man who will run his 2020 re-election bid, Brad Parscale.

"The two men attended what the White House billed as a midterm watch party. But the presence of Lewandowski and Parscale underscored that it may have more accurately been described as the unofficial kickoff of Trump's 2020 campaign. As guests snacked on hamburgers and hot dogs, the president was surrounded not just the political aides who will orchestrate the effort but also by some of the donors expected to underwrite it, including Las Vegas casino magnate Sheldon Adelson, Marvel Entertainment CEO Ike Perlmutter, and fracking billionaire Harold Hamm."
    
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