Subject: 2018 Election: Isolationist or internationalist wave?
From: "Liz Schrayer, USGLC" <[email-masked]>
To: "Hunter Biden" <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 07 Nov 2018 20:29:56 -0600

As Washington scrambles to interpret the 2018 midterm election
results, one thing is certain: there are two narratives about who won,
a likely precursor to more gridlock in our soon-to-be divided
government.

For the USGLC, this election was never about a blue or red wave, but
rather a critical question: Would the midterms bring an isolationist
or internationalist wave? We set out 18 months ago to meet with more
than 300 candidates and campaigns for the House and Senate - an
unprecedented volume of engagement - to discuss America's
global leadership and its importance for advancing U.S. economic and
security interests.

Based on hundreds of these face-to-face conversations - led by
local business, veteran, faith, and community leaders -
candidates embraced the importance of America's role in the
world, rejected isolationism, and most are heading to Washington with
an appreciation for diplomacy and foreign assistance.
 
Read on below for our top election takeaways including the
complexities of the election - and its implications on foreign
policy.

Click Here for the Full Report:
http://action.usglc.org/site/R?i=0D25ETEMls8dpLFZhwvzjA

Best,
 
Liz
Liz Schrayer, USGLC

After Tumultuous Midterm Cycle, Strong Signals for Internationalist
Congress
November 2018

>> Get the USGLC's Complete 2018 Election Analysis -
including details on the House and Senate and freshmen profiles
http://action.usglc.org/site/R?i=zqqD1DoYMCMHbmE9AQp0ZA

1. Foreign Policy Not a Driver, But Still Matters

BY THE NUMBERS. Foreign policy rarely drives voter priorities in
midterm elections, and this cycle was no different with less than 1 in
5 voters citing "foreign policy" or "terrorism" as
one of their most important issues. This contrasts against the 2016
presidential cycle, when exit polls found that foreign policy was
either "extremely" or "very" important to 4
out of 5 voters.

CAMPAIGN ADS. While hot button international issues - including
increasing competition with China, trade, and tensions with North
Korea, Iran, and Russia - certainly made headlines over the past
year, these issues rarely took center stage on the campaign trail.

*  An analysis by the USGLC of television campaign ads through the
end of October 2018 found that only 2% of more than 2.3 million
ad runs had an "international affairs" theme.

FOREIGN POLICY MATTERS. Voters rated health care and the economy as
their top issues. An exception in the closing weeks of the race on
foreign policy was the heightened attention to the caravan from
Central America along with calls for nationalism.

*  Yet despite the prioritization of the domestic agenda, voter
sentiment about America's global engagement remained
extremely high. In a recent survey by the Chicago Council of
Global Affairs, 70% of Americans want the U.S. to play an
"active role" in the world, the highest level since
1974, with the exception of immediately after the 9/11 attacks.

2. Candidates Embrace U.S. Global Engagement

STRONG INSTINCTS. In the more than 300 face-to-face meetings that
USGLC leaders held with House and Senate candidates and their senior
campaign advisors in some of the most competitive races across the
country, candidates showed no signs of isolationism - even in an
election defined by domestic issues and in an "America
First" era.

*  Instead, candidates displayed strong instincts that America must
be engaged on the global stage. One Senate candidate from a
traditional red state opened our meeting stating, "I am
not an isolationist!" Another Senate candidate said,
"I haven't traveled very much, only to 48
countries."

BLANK SLATE. While several incoming members of the House have strong
foreign policy experience - as veterans or with former
government service - most candidates showed up to our meetings
with limited foreign policy experience and expertise. However, they
consistently arrived highly eager to learn and engage - taking
time from the campaign trail to discuss foreign policy.

*  In meeting after meeting with local business, veteran, faith and
community leaders, the return on investment for global
engagement for their state and district resonated with
candidates - and they were keen to learn more specifics.
 
*  Indicative of the meetings, one Senate candidate in a tight race
said, "I couldn't agree more with your positions. It
is better to spend resources upfront and save lives than spend
more money later and lose lives. You will not have to worry
about my vote."

3. Foreign Aid Not An Issue, Candidates Receptive
 
NON-ISSUE. Following the trend of most election cycles, foreign
assistance largely remained out of the spotlight and was rarely
mentioned throughout the vast majority of the 2018 campaign. In
reviewing thousands of campaign ads, only one candidate - who
lost in the primary - specifically mentioned cutting foreign
assistance

CARAVAN FOCUS. As the migration debate surged in October on the
campaign trail, the president called for cutting foreign assistance to
Central America. While this was quickly countered by leading Members
of Congress - like Senator Marco Rubio (R-FL) -
congressional candidates were surprised to learn that only 0.00035% of
our federal budget addresses the Northern Triangle.

CANDIDATES RECEPTIVE. Despite some candidates' limited knowledge
of global development, we encountered a broad openness to how
effective U.S. foreign assistance can be an important tool in
advancing America's interests, especially given the global
competition from China and their growing investments in the developing
world.

*  As one Republican Senate candidate said in a meeting,
"These are issues which align with my core beliefs...
both a strong military and engagement on humanitarian needs are
critical parts of an American global leadership strategy."

POLICY PLATFORMS. The USGLC also analyzed the web sites of candidates
in the open and most competitive races this cycle and found that just
about half of major party candidates featured a formal foreign policy
or national security platform as an issue section. None advocated for
foreign assistance cuts and close to a dozen House candidates
mentioned America's civilian toolkit including diplomacy and
global development programs.

*  Senator-elect Mitt Romney (R-UT), who has said he wants to join
the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and speak out on the
importance of America's role abroad, stated in his
campaign platform: "We must promote our values of freedom
and free enterprise through our diplomacy, economic ties,
alliances and other soft power tools."
Representative-elect Mikie Sherrill (D-NJ), a former Navy
fighter pilot, stated "cuts to the State Department
prevent us from dealing with developing international
crises."

4. Committee Leadership Shifts with Key Retirements, Returning Friends

DEPARTING CHAMPIONS. As the 115th Congress comes to a close, key
foreign policy luminaries - including Chairmen Bob Corker (R-TN)
and Ed Royce (R-CA) - are retiring and leaving big shoes to
fill. Others champions leaving Congress include Senator Jeff Flake
(R-AZ), House Appropriations Chairman Rodney Frelinghuysen (R-NJ),
Reps. Peter Roskam (R-IL) and Tim Walz (D-MN), and many others.

MUSICAL CHAIRS. With leadership and committee contests now on the
horizon, there will be plenty of drama in the House. Long-time
champion State-Foreign Operations Appropriations leader Nita Lowey
(D-NY) is expected to take the gavel of the full Committee, and
Ranking Member Elliot Engel (D-NY) will lead the way on Foreign
Affairs.

*  Familiar faces are also in the mix vying for the ranking member
seats on House Appropriations and Foreign Affairs, and the
biggest upper chamber move - at the moment - is
Senator Jim Risch (R-ID), who is expected to take the helm of
the Foreign Relations Committee.

For more on retirements, losses, returning friends, and committee
shifts, see the full report.

5. New Faces, Freshmen Veterans Set to Reshape Hill
 
VETERAN VOICES. With more than 400 veterans having run this cycle
- twice as many as past elections - engagement with these
candidates underscored how veterans are consistently some of the most
powerful champions for resources for America's civilian overseas
toolkit. The election now ushers into the House at least 17 new
freshman veterans along with several former national security
officials.

NATIONAL SECURITY STANDOUTS. A number of winning House candidates will
bring impressive backgrounds that can help drive support for
international engagement:

*  Dan Crenshaw (R-TX-2) - Former Navy SEAL and has expressed
support for civilian diplomatic and development agencies in
partnership with Department of Defense
*  Young Kim (R-CA-39) - Former staffer for House Foreign
Affairs Committee Chairman Ed Royce
*  Tom Malinowski (D-NJ-7) - Former diplomat who served as
Assistant Secretary of State for Democracy, Human Rights, and
Labor
*  Mikie Sherrill (D-NJ-11) - Former Navy fighter pilot, has
called for "fully-staffed State Department to carry out
the hard, necessary work of strategic diplomacy"
*  Elissa Slotkin (D-MI-8) - Former CIA officer, who worked
in the intelligence community during Bush and Obama
Administrations
*  Abigail Spanberger (D-VA-7) - Former CIA officer, has
called for supporting diplomats as part of U.S. national
security strategy
*  Mike Waltz (R-FL-6) - Former Army Green Beret veteran, who
authored the book Warrior Diplomat

CHAMBER JUMP. Also of note, soon-to-be former House members headed to
the Senate have shown real leadership, including Senators-elect Kevin
Cramer (R-ND) and Jacky Rosen (D-NV) - along with both Arizona
candidates, Reps. Martha McSally (R-AZ) and Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ)
currently in a race that is too close to call. See Senate section
below for more details.

6. Opportunities for Bipartisanship Despite Expected Gridlock

NEXT MOVES. With a divided government, the tension is expected to run
high as House Democrats increase their oversight authority over the
executive branch - with most pundits predicting that not a lot
will get done on Capitol Hill. Yet, in addition to infrastructure,
perhaps global development could once again be a unifying agenda for
Republicans and Democrats.
 
BIPARTISANSHIP? In recent years, lawmakers built a strong legacy,
having passed close to a dozen pieces of bipartisan legislation to
strengthen America's global development investments around the
world - from food security to energy to development finance to
women and girls. This could be a bright spot to watch.
 
BUDGET DEAL? Another area where policymakers could look to find the
art of the deal is the ticking clock on next year's spending levels.
In the last Congress, Democrats and Republicans worked together to
pass a two-year budget deal that lifted the 2011 spending caps, which
will expire at the end of Fiscal Year 2019. Without a new deal to
replace it, defense and non-defense programs will see deep cuts from
sequestration.

7. Long-Term Impact of Nationalism Debate in Closing Days: Unclear
 
RHETORICAL WINDS. Themes from the "America First" 2016
campaign trail returned in the final weeks of the midterm, with the
president focusing his closing arguments on nationalism, citing fears
of the caravan and immigration issues. Pundits are still sorting
through the data to decipher the impact of how these themes motivated
voters in deep red states while turning off voters in swing suburban
districts.

*  The fresh campaign rhetoric will continue to generate debate and
impact our fabric as a nation - but how much this division
will ultimately translate into policy or legislation remains to
be seen.

8. Countdown to 2020: 730 Days

WHEELS UP. Campaign 2020 began in earnest this morning, as President
Trump prepares to head overseas to mark the centennial anniversary of
the end of World War I - followed by the G20 at the end of the
month. This pace of international travel and continued engagements
with leaders from Russia and North Korea, means foreign policy and
national security will be thrust into the spotlight. As Democrats
prepare their legislative agenda for the next Congress, nearly two
dozen Democratic candidates are already testing the waters for their
party's presidential nomination.

COMMANDER-IN-CHIEF. Inevitably, no presidential election can avoid a
robust discussion of national security. While the diplomacy and
development agenda in Congress has remained fiercely bipartisan, the
highly polarized nature of current political environment will put that
tradition to the test. Against the backdrop of immense challenges and
opportunities on the global stage, the 2020 campaign will showcase how
it is more important than ever for America's interests and
values that we remain actively engaged and a leader in the world.

>> Get the USGLC's Complete 2018 Election Analysis -
including details on the House and Senate and freshmen profiles
http://action.usglc.org/site/R?i=2idJliwekOgyGUNJYCMfwQ

The U.S. Global Leadership Coalition
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