Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score: Some more late calls — Florida Senate barrels towards a recount — A wrapup of the legislative battle
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
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Date: Thu, 08 Nov 2018 09:00:51 -0600
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11/08/2018 10:00 AM EDT
        
By ZACH MONTELLARO ([email-masked]; @ZachMontellaro)

        
Editor's Note: This edition of Free Morning Score is published weekdays at 10 a.m. POLITICO Pro Campaigns subscribers hold exclusive early access to the newsletter each morning at 6 a.m. To learn more about POLITICO Pro's comprehensive policy intelligence coverage, policy tools and services, click here. 
          THE TOPLINES         
SOME MORE CALLS - A running list of races that have been called since yesterday's Score (here's the full list of races that were uncalled on Election Day). One race I neglected to mention Wednesday - Alaska's gubernatorial race. 

- AZ-01: Democratic Rep. Tom O'Halleran defeated Republican Wendy Rogers.

- CA-49: Democrat Mike Levin beat Republican Diane Harkey (Democratic flip). 

- CA-50: GOP Rep. Duncan Hunter defeated Democrat Ammar Campa-Najjar.

- MI-08: Democrat Elissa Slotkin defeated GOP Rep. Mike Bishop (Democratic flip).

- MN-01: Republican Jim Hagedorn defeated Democrat Dan Feehan (Republican flip).

- MT-AL: GOP Rep. Greg Gianforte defeated Democrat Kathleen Williams.

- MT-Sen: Democratic Sen. Jon Tester defeated Republican Matt Rosendale.

- AK-Gov: Republican Mike Dunleavy beat former Democratic Sen. Mark Begich (GOP pickup, from independent).

- CT-Gov: Democrat Ned Lamont defeated Republican Bob Stefanowski.

See all our House results here and our Senate results here.

Happy Thursday. Let's all collectively agree to take the next month off, OK? As always, email me at [email-masked] or DM me at @ZachMontellaro. 

Email the great Campaign Pro team at [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked] and [email-masked]. Follow them on Twitter: @PoliticoScott @ec_schneider, @JamesArkin and @DanielStrauss4.

Days until the 2020 election: 726

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          IN THE TRENCHES         
THE ELECTION TAKEAWAYS - What's to make of Tuesday night's results? Our own Steve Shepard has seven takeaways: "Suburban Republicans were swept away. ... How big is the wave? Wait for California. ... Democrats may have lost the Senate until 2022. ... Republicans held some big governorships. ... Democrats patched the Blue Wall, but it's still vulnerable. ... Women won in record numbers. ... Beto didn't win, but other Texas Democrats did."

HEADED FOR A RECOUNT IN FLORIDA - Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson is not conceding the Florida Senate race to GOP Gov. Rick Scott. POLITICO Florida's Matt Dixon: "In a followup statement at 10 a.m. Wednesday, Nelson's campaign announced that overnight the lead shrunk to a 0.4 percent lead for Scott, which is within the one-half percent margin to trigger a recount under state law. ... Scott spokesman Chris Hartline hammered the move. 'This race is over. It's a sad way for Bill Nelson to end his career,' Hartline said in an email. ... The campaign is already working with well-known Democratic attorney Marc Elias with the firm Perkins Coie."

- Democrats are already worried they're starting off any potential recount on the wrong foot, POLITICO Florida's Alexandra Glorioso reported.

THE NEXT COMMITTEE CHAIRS - The jockeying to succeed Rep. Ben Ray Lujan (D-N.M.) at the DCCC has begun (Lujan announced he was running for assistant majority leader, per The Hill's Scott Wong). BuzzFeed News' Lissandra Villa: "Washington Rep. Suzan DelBene announced on Wednesday she will run to be the chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee for the 2020 cycle. ... DelBene, who is little-known nationally, currently serves as a DCCC finance cochair."

- GOP Rep. Steve Stivers (R-Ohio) announced that he won't run for another term as NRCC chief, per POLITICO's Jake Sherman. Wong reported on a handful of Republicans in the mix to succeed him.

THE MISSISSIPPI RUNOFF - The runoff between Republican Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith and Democrat Mike Espy in Mississippi is on the calendar for Nov. 27. Hyde-Smith isn't waiting around, going up with a new ad for the special election. "Right now, I know everyone is getting ready for Thanksgiving and thinking about family, food and football, not politics," she says in the ad, before reminding voters about the upcoming election. "There's so much at stake for our country and you now have a clear choice."'

THE LOOMING SENATE BRAWL - The Senate may be the launching point for a number of presidential campaigns. POLITICO's Burgess Everett and Elena Schor: "From household names like Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren to lesser-known progressives such as Jeff Merkley, Democratic senators eyeing the White House will spend the next two years doing everything they can to market themselves as the party's best hope for salvation from Donald Trump.

"Prominent liberals this year have mostly refrained from theatrics on the Senate floor against legislative compromises or Trump nominees - grandstanding that might have won kudos from the base but put red-state Democrats on the spot. But with the election over now, some senators already worry that the chamber will get bogged down as it becomes a proving ground for the 2020 Democratic primary."

NEVER TOO EARLY FOR 2021 - redistricting, that is. Several gubernatorial races and ballot measures affected who will draw the lines after the census. More from me: "Democrats flipped governorships in seven states Tuesday, installing governors poised to play key roles in the next redistricting process in 2021 and 2022 - but Republicans held onto several major states, giving no party a clear leg up two years ahead of the census. ...

"Colorado and Michigan also passed ballot measures, supported by the [National Democratic Redistricting Committee], that transferred redistricting power from legislators and governors to independent commissions. (Democrats also elected new governors in both states, ending unified GOP control over Michigan's state government.) The results represent progress for Democrats since 2010, when Michigan and Wisconsin - along with Pennsylvania, where Democratic Gov. Tom Wolf was reelected - were three states where GOP-controlled redistricting after the 2010 census hit Democrats especially hard, but Tuesday's results guaranteed Republicans won't have unified control in those states this time."

- Speaking of redistricting: Federal judges tossed Maryland's map. More from Steve: "The judges unanimously ordered Maryland to redraw two of its House districts before the 2020 election, saying Democratic leaders improperly broke up a Republican-leaning seat in Western Maryland when they crafted the map after the 2010 Census."

SMALL CASH - Democrats will look to quickly return to the small-donor well ahead of the 2020 elections. POLITICO's Maggie Severns: "Small-dollar donors reached by POLITICO on Wednesday showed no sign of regret [after backing some losing candidates], and Democratic fundraisers are betting they can keep them giving into 2020, when they'll have congressional and presidential races to support. And Republicans are increasingly discussing how to counter ActBlue, which accounted for approximately $1.6 billion of the $2.5 billion that Democrats spent during this election cycle."

IT'S MITT! - Two new filings with the FEC related to Sen.-elect Mitt Romney (R-Utah): Believe in America PAC (a leadership PAC) and Team Mitt (a joint fundraising committee between his campaign and leadership PAC) (h/t to Maggie).

WAY DOWNBALLOT - A wrapup of the state legislative battle, courtesy of the National Conference of State Legislatures: Eight chambers flipped, seven toward Democrats and one toward Republicans. The New York state Senate, which went to Democrats, and the Alaska House, which moved to Republicans, were previously two coalition-controlled bodies led by the minority party. At the end of the night Republicans control 61 chambers around the country and Democrats control 37. "Hey," you scream into the void. "That's only 98!" That's true! Nebraska has a unicameral state legislature that is also technically nonpartisan, bringing it up to 99 (the NCSL told me that it is commonly understood to be a
 Republican-leaning chamber, however).

Only one state has a split legislature now: Minnesota, where Republicans control the state House and Democrats have the state Senate. Thirteen states have split control - where each party has at least one state legislative chamber or the governorship.The group noted that "compared to past midterms, the [Democratic] gains were modest with Republicans maintaining a robust position in state legislatures."

HANGIN' ON - Sen. Joe Manchin (D-Va.) defied the odds and cruised to reelection in one of President Donald Trump's biggest footholds. POLITICO Magazine's Michael Kruse breaks it down: "He won because of his singular combination of longevity, familiarity and conviviality, according to aides and advisers, critics and advocates, local political experts and voters across the ideological spectrum. In addition to the benefit of a flawed opponent in Patrick Morrisey, they told me, Manchin brought to the race what he always does - an uncommon face-to-face skill set, an uncanny knack at reading public sentiment, and a keen and exacting political calculus."

CODA - FACTOID OF THE DAY: "A sobering fact for Ohio Democrats: Richard Cordray won more votes (2,020,128) than John Kasich did to win a 2-1 landslide in 2014 (1,922,436). Trump-era Ohio Republicans simply smashed through the model with rural voters," via The Washington Post's Dave Weigel.
    
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