Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score: Sinema expands lead in Arizona Senate race — Recount underway in Florida Senate, gubernatorial election — 3 more House races called, Democrats push gains up to 33 seats
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 12 Nov 2018 09:01:56 -0600
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11/12/2018 10:00 AM EDT
        
By ZACH MONTELLARO ([email-masked]; @ZachMontellaro)

        
Editor's Note: This edition of Free Morning Score is published weekdays at 10 a.m. POLITICO Pro Campaigns subscribers hold exclusive early access to the newsletter each morning at 6 a.m. To learn more about POLITICO Pro's comprehensive policy intelligence coverage, policy tools and services, click here. 
          THE TOPLINES         
SINEMA STEAMS AHEAD - Democratic Rep. Kyrsten Sinema expanded her lead over GOP Rep. Martha McSally in the Arizona Senate race with votes tallied over the weekend. My Campaign Pro colleague James Arkin: "Sinema lead McSally by 32,640 votes as of Sunday evening, and now has 49.6 percent of the vote compared to 48.1 percent for McSally. There are still more than 200,000 votes left in the state to count, a process that could continue into the middle of the coming week. ...

"Sinema has expanded her lead each day as new ballots have been counted. Republicans had hoped that later vote tallies would shift and begin to benefit McSally as the state began counting early ballots dropped at polling places on Election Day, rather than late-arriving early votes, which had leaned toward Sinema. But Sinema continued to increase her lead Sunday night."

RECOUNT UNDERWAY - Down in Florida, a recount for the Senate and gubernatorial races are underway (Democrat Andrew Gillum rescinded his concession to former GOP Rep. Ron DeSantis in the governor's race). From the president to outgoing Gov. Rick Scott, various members of the Republican party have been alleging some sort of widespread fraud to "steal" the close elections away from the GOP. But crucially, election monitors from Scott's administration have seen "no evidence of criminal activity at this time" in Broward County, where much of the late Democratic vote has come in, and no Republican has offered up evidence that shows anything contrary to that. (Broward County hasn't been without
 its problems: the local elections supervisor has a history of controversy, and this cycle she included 22 void ballots in the county and saw a delayed start to the recount.) Both Scott and DeSantis had narrow leads in their respective races before the recount began on Saturday. POLITICO Florida's Marc Caputo and Matt Dixon wrote how this year's recount conjures the ghosts of the 2000 recount.

- The deadline for the recount is on Thursday, but some worry that all the votes will not be retabulated by that time. Palm Beach County Supervisor of Elections Susan Bucher told CNN it would be "impossible" to finish a recount in time.

Good Monday morning. You've probably already seen it, but if you haven't, check out Rep.-elect Dan Crenshaw's (R-Texas) appearance on "Saturday Night Live". As always, email me at [email-masked] or DM me at @ZachMontellaro. 

Email the great Campaign Pro team at [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked] and [email-masked]. Follow them on Twitter: @PoliticoScott @ec_schneider, @JamesArkin and @DanielStrauss4.

Days until the 2020 election: 722

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          IN THE TRENCHES         
WEEKEND CALLS - Three more House races were called over the weekend, pushing Democratic gains to a net 33 districts. Eight seats remain uncalled, and the balance of power currently sits at 228-199.

CA-25: Democrat Katie Hill defeated GOP Rep. Steve Knight (Democratic flip).

CA-48: Democrat Mike Levin beat Republican Diane Harkey (Democratic flip).

NC-09: Republican Mark Harris beat Democrat Dan McCready.

- The uncalled California races have gotten closer as more votes have come in. In CA-10, Democrat Josh Harder has passed GOP Rep. Jeff Denham, and Republican Young Kim in CA-39 and GOP Rep. Mimi Walters in CA-45 have seen their leads shrink to 1.5 percent over Democrat Gil Cisneros and 1 percent over Democrat Katie Porter, respectively. 

DOWN IN GEORGIA - The race between Republican Brian Kemp and Democrat Stacey Abrams has gotten tighter, but Kemp still remains poised to avoid a runoff and win the governorship. "Abrams prepared litigation to force the counting of more provisional ballots, while ... Kemp's campaign said her refusal to concede was 'a disgrace to democracy,'" the Atlanta Journal-Constitution's Greg Bluestein reported. "[S]he still needs to net about 22,000 votes to force a Dec. 4 runoff, and there aren't many votes that have yet to be reported. It's unclear, however, just how many votes are still outstanding."

PAYING THE PRESIDENT - Campaigns and PACs poured at least $3.2 million into the president's coffers by spending at Trump properties during the cycle, according to an analysis from CNN's David Wright and Aaron Kessler. The total spending is down from the 2016 cycle, and the single largest spender was the RNC.

THE NEXT SPEAKER - The Democratic forces aligning against House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi's bid to regain the Speaker's gavel are missing one critical component: a leader. POLITICO's Rachael Bade and John Bresnahan: "The naysayers claim they have the 15 to 20 votes it would take to block Pelosi on the House floor. But so far, no one's stepped up as an alternative, and it's unclear who might. Also unknown is whether that person would have a prayer against the experienced Pelosi, as controversial and flawed as she might be."

THE COMMITTEE CHAIR CHASE - Two more candidates are entering the race to lead the DCCC: Rep. Cheri Bustos (D-Ill.) (per The Washington Post's Mike DeBonis) and Rep. Sean Maloney (D-N.Y.) (per NBC News' Alex Moe). The pair joins Washington Democratic Reps. Denny Heck and Suzan DelBene in the race to defend their majority.

- Meanwhile, Walters has dropped her bid to chair the NRCC, our own Alex Isenstadt reported, and is instead backing GOP Rep. Tom Emmer (R-Minn.).

THE CASH DASH - Republicans are desperate to match the influx of small donors that Democrats harnessed this cycle. More from Alex: "Mitch McConnell stood before a roomful of Republican donors on Wednesday night to thank them for their help in the midterms. But the Senate leader also issued a dire warning: Democrats had just thumped them in the all-important online donor game, and the GOP badly needs to catch up. The heart of the problem, McConnell said at the event at party headquarters on Capitol Hill, is ActBlue. ...

"With the next campaign already on the horizon, Republicans view their online donor deficit - particularly acute in House races, but significant in Senate contests, too - as a primary obstacle. Josh Holmes, a top McConnell political adviser, has begun making calls to senior Republicans and a group of party figures are expected to convene after Thanksgiving. An ActBlue counterweight, he said, would require buy-in across the splintered Republican Party apparatus."

THE WIDENING PRESIDENTIAL FIELD - Add another name to the list of potential 2020 Democratic presidential hopefuls making moves: Former Starbucks CEO Howard Schultz. CNBC's Brian Schultz reported that Schultz is building "an elite public relations team as he prepares to release a civic-minded new book and considers running for president in 2020." Schultz' team includes Steve Schmidt, who managed the late Sen. John McCain's 2008 presidential campaign. Another name for the big board is Democratic Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, who hinted at it last week, per The New York Times' Shane Goldmacher.

- One challenge many Democratic hopefuls will face is a lack of qualified staffers, POLITICO's Natasha Korecki reported. "That explains why, with the midterm elections not even a week in the history books, Democratic hopefuls have been scrambling to fill out their 2020 teams," she writes.

- Outgoing Sen. Jeff Flake (R-Ariz.) also says someone needs to challenge Trump in the Republican party, and that someone could be him. "I've not ruled it out. I've not ruled it in. Just, somebody needs to run on the Republican side," he told POLITICO's Burgess Everett. Flake ruled out running for the Senate in Arizona in 2020.

PROBABLY WANT THAT BACK - Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith (R-Miss.), who is running against Democrat Mike Espy (who is black), joked how close she was to a supporter by saying "If he invited me to a public hanging, I'd be on the front row." A spokesperson for Espy's campaign called her comments "reprehensible," while Hyde-Smith's called it "exaggerated expression of regard" in a statement and said "any attempt to turn this into a negative connotation is ridiculous," James reported.

SUPER PAC IN ACTION - Priorities USA, one of the biggest Democratic super PACs, is already laying the 2020 groundwork. NBC News' Mike Memoli: "In the closing months of the midterm campaign, a team within Priorities began laying the groundwork for 2020, identifying structural deficiencies in the party and making plans to address them. Priorities plans to launch a new coordination hub to provide partner organizations with modeling, targeting and opinion research for its digital, mail and field programs. It is also building a Trump-focused research and press operation that will be deployed in swing states."

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "I should have known better. I should have kept walking," former Speaker John Boehner reacting to being surrounded by reporters, in a profile about Rep. John Delaney (D-Md.) in The New York Times.
    
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