Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score: The growing prevalence of dark money — Trump mulls Mississippi rally ahead of special election — Kim flips NJ-03, brings total to 35 Democrat pickups
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 15 Nov 2018 09:01:58 -0600
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11/15/2018 10:00 AM EDT
        
By ZACH MONTELLARO ([email-masked]; @ZachMontellaro)

        
Editor's Note: This edition of Free Morning Score is published weekdays at 10 a.m. POLITICO Pro Campaigns subscribers hold exclusive early access to the newsletter each morning at 6 a.m. To learn more about POLITICO Pro's comprehensive policy intelligence coverage, policy tools and services, click here. 

PROGRAMMING NOTE: Morning Score will not publish on Thursday, Nov. 22 and Friday, Nov. 23. Our next Morning Score newsletter will publish on Monday, Nov. 26.
          THE TOPLINES         
FOLLOW THE MONEY - This cycle alone, secret-money political groups that don't disclose donors spent at least $98 million - and that's only what was reported to the FEC so far - according to data from Anna Massoglia, a researcher at the Center for Responsive Politics. So-called dark money groups will cross the $1 billion threshold for spending during the 2020 cycle, said Michael Beckel, the manager of research, investigations and policy analysis at Issue One. He blamed the 2010 Citizens United case for opening the floodgates for this kind of spending.

And plenty of other political spending is only partially transparent, at best. Some groups that only partially disclose donors spent at least $405 million this cycle, while digital advertising has seen an increase in ads by "non-entities" - groups that have opaque disclosures for who is paying for the ad, if any disclosure at all, Massoglia said.

"Dark money is playing an increasing role," said Meredith McGehee, the executive director of nonpartisan advocacy group Issue One. "Knowing both the message and the messenger is an important part of being an American citizen."

Advocates for transparency in political spending place the blame for the spread of dark money squarely on the FEC. "All you need is action by the Federal Election Commission," said Adav Noti, a senior director at the Campaign Legal Center. "The bad news there is you need action by the Federal Election Commission. ... The FEC isn't going to fix it. The question then is who is?"

Advocates have proposed several different routes for changing dark money spending and disclosure - through the courts, agency action or Congress, where the new Democratic House majority wants to make campaign finance legislation a priority. And while a recent court decision closed one loophole that allow groups to avoid disclosure, plenty more remain. "Any moderately competent campaign finance lawyer in the current environment can drive a truck through the remaining loopholes," Noti said.

Possibly the most politically palatable solution would be to expand disclosure. "If there's going to be spending, disclose the donors behind the groups," said Tyler Cole, Issue One's legislative director. "We were in roughly 200 different congressional offices in the 115th Congress. Behind closed doors, we had a pretty common thread ... that they really don't like dark money. ... They're somewhat resigned that there's going to be outside spending, but what they hate is that a group can come in and dump millions of dollars ... and they don't even know who it is. This is a thread we're hoping to seize on and capitalize in the 116th and beyond."

Good Thursday morning. As always, email me at [email-masked] or DM me at @ZachMontellaro. 

Email the great Campaign Pro team at [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked] and [email-masked]. Follow them on Twitter: @PoliticoScott, @JamesArkin, @ec_schneider and @DanielStrauss4.

Days until the 2020 election: 719
          IN THE TRENCHES         
POTUS TO THE RESCUE? - President Donald Trump is weighing a trip to Mississippi ahead of the Nov. 27 special election runoff between Republican Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith and Democrat Mike Espy, while the NRSC is planning to spend $1 million on the race. POLITICO's Alex Isenstadt: "Party officials stressed that plans for a Trump rally weren't yet finalized, but several people involved in the talks said they expect the event to take place on the eve of the runoff. It would be Trump's first rally since his nationwide pre-midterm sprint. ... 

"The National Republican Senatorial Committee, meanwhile, has drawn up plans to spend over $1 million on a TV ad campaign buttressing Hyde-Smith. Much of the funding came from an approximately $1 million transfer supplied from the Republican National Committee last week, before Hyde-Smith's remarks [regarding a joke she made about a 'public hanging'] became public. ... Additional reinforcements could be on the way. Mississippi Victory Fund, a pro-Hyde Smith super PAC, is expected to invest another $600,000 ahead of the runoff. ... National Democrats, who've long viewed the contest as a reach, are also starting to engage. On Wednesday, the Democratic-aligned Senate Majority PAC began
 reserving TV advertising time."

ANOTHER RACE CALL - Democrat Andy Kim beat GOP Rep. Tom MacArthur in NJ-03, another flip for Democrats. Six House seats remain uncalled: CA-39, CA-45, GA-07, ME-02, TX-23 and UT-04.

- The two outstanding California races continued to trend Democratic. In CA-39, Republican Young Kim is clinging to a narrow 122 vote lead over Democrat Gil Cisneros. And in CA-45, Democrat Katie Porter expanded her lead to about 3,800 votes over GOP Rep. Mimi Walters.

- In UT-04, Democrat Ben McAdams' lead over GOP Rep. Mia Love continued to shrink. He's now up by about 870 votes. Love is also suing the Salt Lake county clerk to suspend ballot counting, The Salt Lake Tribune's Benjamin Wood reported.

- The balance of power currently sits at 230 Democrats to 199 Republicans, with the Democratic net gain at 35 so far.

- For those following ME-02: The state's secretary of state office announced that it will resume processing ballots today at 9 a.m., per the Portland Press Herald's Kevin Miller.

THE COMMITTEE CHAIRS - No muss, no fuss on the Republican side to lead both party committees. Minnesota Rep. Tom Emmer was named the NRCC chair, and Sen. Todd Young of Indiana will head up the NRSC. Democratic senators did not select a DSCC leader, but our own Burgess Everett reported that Minority Leader Chuck Schumer talked to Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-Nev.) about heading it up (although no final decision has been made). The House Democratic leadership vote is later this month.

THE FLORIDA RECOUNT - Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson faces long odds to keep his Senate seat. POLITICO Florida's Marc Caputo: "Nelson has two major problems, experts say: Nelson's lawsuits were filed so late and courts generally frown on last-minute post-election changes, and the margin he trails Scott by is so big that even expanding the pool of available ballots to count makes it highly unlikely that Nelson could make up enough ground.

"'A royal flush is right on the money. Nelson would have to have a perfect hand,' said Michael Morley, a Florida State University election law professor, echoing two other experts who spoke to POLITICO. 'He would have to win in every case. And even then, it would not seem to be enough to change the outcome,' Morley said."

- State officials asked federal prosecutors to investigate state election documents whose dates were changed. POLITICO Florida' Matt Dixon: "The concerns, which the department says can be tied to the Florida Democratic Party, center around date changes on forms used to fix vote-by-mail ballots sent with incorrect or missing information. Known as 'cure affidavits,' those documents used to fix mail ballots were due no later than 5 p.m. on Nov. 5 - the day before the election. But affidavits released on Tuesday by the [Florida Department of State] show that documents from four different counties said the ballots could be returned by 5 p.m. on Thursday, which is not accurate. Audio of a Florida
 Democratic Party caller leaving a voicemail message asking a Palm Beach County voter to fix their vote by mail ballot after Election Day, which is not allowed, was also sent to POLITICO separately." 

An important note from Matt (read his whole thread): "It's first thing that has been flagged as far a law enforcement issue in Florida. But it's not fraud/ballot stuffing/staff secretly filling out ballots, or any other thing that has been alleged public[ly]."

- The president continues to spread lies and conspiracy theories about massive voter fraud, in an interview with The Daily Caller's Saagar Enjeti and Benny Johnson. The latest round includes saying you need an ID to buy cereal and that people go to their car to "put on a different hat, put on a different shirt," and go vote again.

GEORGIA ON MY MIND - The slow march to a resolution in the Georgia gubernatorial race between Republican Brian Kemp and Democrat Stacey Abrams continues. The Atlanta Journal-Constitution's Greg Bluestein and Tia Mitchell: "The bitter feud escalated as federal judges considered several ongoing legal challenges that could trigger the counting of more ballots, even after Tuesday's deadline for counties to certify their votes. The only county that has yet to certify is Gwinnett, which is set to do so on Thursday."

SPEEDBUMP FOR PELOSI - Ohio Democratic Rep. Marcia Fudge is mulling a challenge to House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi's bid for speaker. "I need to give it some thought and see if I have an interest. I am at the very beginning of this process. It is just in discussion at this point," she told the Cleveland Plain Dealer's Sabrina Eaton. Our own Rachael Bade and Nolan McCaskill have more on the battle over the gavel.

THE MAN BEHIND THE CURTAIN - Marc Elias, the Democratic lawyer heading up Nelson's recount efforts, got profile treatment from The New York Times' Kenneth P. Vogel and Patricia Mazzei: "[H]e has also worked mostly behind the scenes for the past decade shaping the laws and regulations governing American politics, from voting access to redistricting to campaign fund-raising and spending. The work has yielded tens of millions of dollars in legal fees for his firm, Perkins Coie, from corporations, campaigns and political committees. In the process, Mr. Elias has earned a reputation as one of the most formidable election lawyers in the country, and arguably one of the most influential of
 unelected Democrats in Washington."

PARTY INFIGHTING - The Congressional Black Caucus passed a vote of no confidence against DNC Chairman Tom Perez. Nolan and John Bresnahan reported that the vote stems from the party's decision to strip superdelegates of much of their power.

TEA LEAVES - Democrat Mike Johnston, who lost to incoming Gov. Jared Polis in the Colorado Democratic gubernatorial primary, told National Journal's Zach Cohen that he is "thinking seriously about" running against Sen. Cory Gardner (R-Colo.) in 2020. Meanwhile, Louisiana Attorney General Jeff Landry, a Republican, said he would seek re-election and not run for governor, per the AP's Melinda Deslatte.

THE DEMOCRATIC FIELD - Michael Avenatti, who has floated a 2020 run as a Democrat, was arrested on suspicion of domestic violence, POLITICO's Natasha Korecki reported. Through his law firm, he issued a statement vehemently denying the allegations.

CODA - GROAN-INDUCING HEADLINE OF THE DAY: "DC Finally Gets a Mueller-Themed Ice Cream Truck," by the Washingtonian's Brittany Shepherd. 
    
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