Subject: POLITICO Playbook: Warning signs for Trump’s reelection
From: "Anna Palmer Jake Sherman Daniel Lippman" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 23 Nov 2018 08:37:33 -0600
List-Id: <1376319.xt.local>

Presented by H&R Block: Playbook is POLITICO's must-read briefing on what's driving the day                Nov 23, 2018 View in browser                   
 By Jake Sherman, Anna Palmer and Daniel Lippman 
             
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                     DRIVING THE DAY      
SPOTTED: Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin taking a selfie with his wife Louise Linton at SoulCycle in Beverly Hills. Our tipster said Mnuchin spent much of the class in the saddle. Pic of the two taking a selfie

SIREN -- STEVEN SHEPARD: "Warning signs mount for Trump reelection bid": "Donald Trump insists the GOP's midterm election shellacking had nothing to do with him. Things will be different, he says, when his name is actually on the ballot in 2020.

"While it's true that most presidents who see their party suffer major losses in their first midterm election get reelected anyway, Trump isn't most presidents - and there are lots of blaring-red warning lights in this month's election results for his bid for a second term. 

"Unlike most of his predecessors, he's been persistently unpopular, with approval ratings mired in the 40-percent range - so far, he's the only president in the modern era whose job approval ratings have never been over 50 percent, according to Gallup.

"Some of Democrats' biggest gains came in the states that powered Trump's Electoral College victory in 2016: Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. And while a president's base has stayed home in previous midterm elections, leading to losses, the record turnout in this year's races suggests 2018 was more like a 2016 re-run than Trump voters standing on the sidelines. Thus far, even Trump loyalists in the party haven't seen the president expand his electoral base beyond core Republicans." POLITICO

THE PRESIDENT has no public events scheduled today. WaPo's Josh Dawsey tweeted that the president is at his golf course in Florida.

TRUMP AT MAR-A-LAGO -- "'HAPPY THANKSGIVING TO ALL!': Rhetorical bedlam erupts as President Trump speaks to the world from Mar-a-Lago," by WaPo's Josh Dawsey in Palm Beach, Fla.: "President Trump's Thanksgiving began, as his days often do, with an all-caps tweet: 'HAPPY THANKSGIVING TO ALL!' Minutes later, he tweeted of potential 'bedlam, chaos, injury and death,' a harbinger of what would be a frenetic Thanksgiving morning. 

"Over the span of a few hours, the president would mix the traditional pablum of Thanksgiving tidings with renouncing the findings of his Central Intelligence Agency, threatening Mexico, criticizing court decisions, attacking Hillary Clinton over her emails, misstating facts about the economy, floating a shutdown of the government - and per usual, jousting with the news media." WaPo

-- ALSO FROM DAWSEY ... TRUMP ON KHASHOGGI and SAUDI ARABIA: "President Trump on Thursday contradicted the CIA's assessment that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman had ordered the killing of Washington Post contributing columnist Jamal Khashoggi, insisting that the agency had 'feelings' but did not firmly place blame for the death. ... 'I hate the crime, I hate the coverup. I will tell you this: The crown prince hates it more than I do, and they have vehemently denied it,' Trump said. Mohammed has not shown remorse for the killing, which was carried out by some of his close advisers.

"Asked who should be held accountable for the death of Khashoggi, who was killed at the Saudi Consulate in Turkey on Oct. 2, Trump again refused to place blame - instead espousing a grim view of the world that he often shares with advisers. 'Maybe the world should be held accountable because the world is a very, very vicious place,' the president said." WaPo

-- POOL REPORT DU JOUR - Per NYT's Emily Cochrane: "Q: What are you thankful for? [TRUMP:] 'Great family, and for having made a tremendous difference in this country. I made a tremendous difference in this country. This country is so much stronger now than it was when I took office and you wouldn't believe it and when you see it, we've gotten so much stronger people don't even believe it. 

"When I see foreign leaders, they cannot believe the difference in strength between the United States now and the United States two years ago. We've made a lot of progress.'"

-- THE FOLLOW UP: "Sir, which world leaders have told you that?"

Happy Black Friday. The oldest Pearl Harbor survivor passed away at 106. CNN

WAPO'S SALLY JENKINS, in Arlington, Texas, takes a knife to the Washington Redskins: "The Washington Redskins were like pie crust." Bust through the first layer, and there was nothing firm underneath. In a Thanksgiving Day game that had as much import as any they have played in years, with a chance to get the NFC East title in their grasp, they turned out to be a tasty piece of dessert for the Dallas Cowboys." WaPo
       
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WHAT'S ON THE PRESIDENT'S MIND -- @realDonaldTrump at 7:41 a.m.: "Republicans and Democrats MUST come together, finally, with a major Border Security package, which will include funding for the Wall. After 40 years of talk, it is finally time for action. Fix the Border, for once and for all, NOW!" 

... at 7:57 a.m.: "Really good Criminal Justice Reform has a true shot at major bipartisan support. @senatemajldr Mitch McConnell and @senchuckschumer have a real chance to do something so badly needed in our country. Already past, with big vote, in House. Would be a major victory for ALL!"

-- "Already passed," is what the president meant. Also, this issue deeply divides Senate Republicans -- many of the president's staunchest allies are opposed -- which is one of the reasons McConnell has been skeptical.

THE TRUMP SLUMP?. ... 

-- WSJ'S DAVID HODARI: "U.S. Stocks Set to Fall Amid Fresh Trade Tensions With China": "Wall Street futures put both the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average on course for falls, of 0.4% on their return to trading after the Thanksgiving holiday. Trading volumes were expected to be thin during an abridged post holiday trading session, with volumes in Asia-Pacific markets were also thin due to the Japanese public holiday.

"Oil-exposed stocks were due to lead indexes lower, with TechnipFMC and Marathon Oil Corp. down 3.9% and 3.7%, respectively, in premarket trade. That came as a fall in oil prices accelerated, with Brent crude oil plumbing depths not seen since 2017, dropping 2.5% to $61 a barrel as light trading volumes amplified ongoing concerns about rising supply. West Texas Intermediate futures were down 4.4% at $52.51 a barrel, their lowest price since late October 2017." WSJ

BEHIND THE SCENES ... 

-- ELIANA JOHNSON, "Fiery West Wing meeting led to more power for military at U.S.-Mexico border": "President Donald Trump this week presided over an explosive meeting on a new Cabinet order granting the troops deployed at the southern border the right to use lethal force to defend border patrol agents. 

"Several White House aides and external advisers who have supported the president's hawkish immigration agenda attended the Monday meeting, which devolved into a melee pitting two of Trump's embattled aides, White House chief of staff John Kelly and Department of Homeland Security Secretary Kirstjen Nielsen, against other attendees, according to three people briefed on the exchange.

"Kelly and Nielsen initially argued against signing the declaration, which granted the military broad authority at the border, telling the president that the move was beyond his constitutional powers. They were vocally opposed by, among others, senior policy adviser Stephen Miller; Chris Crane, president of the National Immigration and Customs Enforcement Council; and Brandon Judd, president of the border patrol union. Also present was Vice President Mike Pence, who did not take a stand on the issue, according to one of the people briefed on the debate.

"Kelly and Nielsen eventually came around to the president's position, and the bitter dispute ended Tuesday evening when Kelly, on Trump's orders, signed a Cabinet declaration granting the military the disputed authority. The move ran afoul of the guidance offered by the White House counsel, Emmet Flood, who cautioned that it was likely to run into constitutional roadblocks, according to a second source familiar with the conversations." POLITICO

         
-- WAPO'S JOSH ROGIN: "When Mike Pence met Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping": "When the plenary ended, [Vladimir Putin and VP Mike Pence] huddled in the corner for about 15 minutes as staff, security and translators swarmed around them. Pence decided to confront Putin about Russia's interference in U.S. democracy.

"'So I looked at him and I said, 'We know what happened in 2016,'' Pence told me in an interview. 'And I said, 'As the president has told you, we're not having it.'' Putin denied that Russia had done anything wrong, but Pence stuck to his guns. 'And I said, 'Mr. President, I'm very aware of what you've said about that, but I'm telling you we're not having it,' " Pence said. "I wanted to reiterate what the president has said. I thought it was important he hear that from the vice president, too.'" WaPo

AND TRUMP SMILES ... KYLE CHENEY: "House Republicans subpoena Comey, Lynch for closed-door testimony": "House Republicans served up some subpoenas with their Thanksgiving turkey this week, issuing last-minute demands for former FBI Director James Comey and former Attorney General Loretta Lynch to appear for closed-door testimony on Dec. 3 and Dec. 4, respectively. 

"The subpoenas, issued Wednesday but revealed publicly Thanksgiving morning, completed the threats issued by GOP committee chairman Bob Goodlatte earlier in the week. Comey had rejected an earlier invitation from the committee to testify privately and instead asked for a public hearing. Democrats say they prefer the hearing to be public as well." POLITICO

CYBERWARS ... "Washington Asks Allies to Drop Huawei," by WSJ's Stu Woo in London and Kate O'Keeffe in Washington: "The U.S. government has initiated an extraordinary outreach campaign to foreign allies, trying to persuade wireless and internet providers in these countries to avoid telecommunications equipment from China's Huawei Technologies Co., according to people familiar with the situation. 

"American officials have briefed their government counterparts and telecom executives in friendly countries where Huawei equipment is already in wide use, including Germany, Italy and Japan, about what they see as cybersecurity risks ... The U.S. is also considering increasing financial aid for telecommunications development in countries that shun Chinese-made equipment." WSJ

WSJ'S BYRON TAU and JOSHUA JAMERSON: "Clock Ticks on Trump Intel Picks Stalled by Republicans": "Joseph Maguire was nominated by Mr. Trump in June to head the National Counterterrorism Center, overseeing the government's efforts to prevent terrorism, a position that has been vacant for nearly a year. Kentucky Republican Rand Paul has put a hold on the nomination in an effort to get more information from the administration on how metadata collected by spy agencies is used by the government, a longstanding concern of the libertarian-leaning senator.

"Separately, Sen. Chuck Grassley, an Iowa Republican, has placed a hold on William Evanina, the president's pick to head the National Counterintelligence and Security Center over a long-running fight with the intelligence community over access to highly classified documents. Mr. Grassley wants information about what Mr. Evanina told Vice President Mike Pence regarding the Russia investigation early in the Trump administration, and other documents about surveillance. Mr. Evanina has begun looking for other jobs, in part because of the extensive Senate delay, according to a person familiar with the matter." WSJ

CLICKER - "This Is What The World Looks Like For Kids Traveling In The Caravan," by BuzzFeed's Kate Bubacz and Adolfo Flores: "BuzzFeed News gave six kids cameras to show what the world looks like to them. Our reporter Adolfo Flores, who has reported extensively on the caravans from Central America, taught them how to use the cameras and asked them to document their journey." BuzzFeed

LAME DUCK WATCH ... WSJ'S RICH RUBIN: "Leftover Tax Provisions Sit on Congress's Post-Thanksgiving Plate"

TV TONIGHT - PBS' "Washington Week" with Bob Costa: Jake Sherman, Lisa Desjardins, Manu Raju and Erica Werner
                 PLAYBOOK READS         

PHOTO DU JOUR: A migrant man pushes a child in a stroller amid riot police as they join a small group of migrants trying to cross the border together at the Chaparral border crossing in Tijuana, Mexico, on Thursday. | AP Photo/Ramon Espinosa
   
2020 WATCH -- ELANA SCHOR: "Sherrod Brown sets his sights on Trump in 2020": "Democrat Sherrod Brown just won reelection resoundingly in a Trump state running on Trump's issues - taking a hard line on trade and helping blue-collar workers. Now the Ohio senator is talking increasingly like he's prepared to take on the president himself.

"In an expansive interview that began in his Senate office, Brown sketched the outlines of a potential presidential campaign that connects with the working-class, particularly Rust Belt voters who've fled the Democratic Party for Trump - but with a less divisive message.

"'I don't play off American workers against Mexican workers,' Brown told POLITICO, even as he touted his ability to draw support from 'a lot of Trump voters.' 'I don't inject race in it,' he added. 'I don't inject anti-foreigner sentiment in it.'" POLITICO

KNOWING CORTEZ MASTO: "Senate Dems' guide back to the majority: A trailblazing freshman," by Burgess Everett and Elana Schor: "Catherine Cortez Masto has already made history: She's the first woman elected to the Senate from Nevada, and the first Latina senator, ever.

"Now she's ready to add another honorific: Majority maker. The former state attorney general is preparing to lead the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee into its third consecutive attempt to wrest the majority from Mitch McConnell's Republicans. And Democrats hope that this time, they'll find success by replicating the party's strategy in Nevada on a national scale." POLITICO

         
ATTN. BANNON ... -- "Hillary Clinton: Europe must curb immigration to stop rightwing populists," by the Guardian's Patrick Wintour: "Europe must get a handle on immigration to combat a growing threat from rightwing populists, Hillary Clinton has said, calling on the continent's leaders to send out a stronger signal showing they are 'not going to be able to continue to provide refuge and support'. In an interview with the Guardian, the former Democratic presidential candidate praised the generosity shown by the German chancellor, Angela Merkel, but suggested immigration was inflaming voters and contributed to the election of Donald Trump and Britain's vote to leave the EU.

"'I think Europe needs to get a handle on migration because that is what lit the flame,' Clinton said, speaking as part of a series of interviews with senior centrist political figures about the rise of populists, particularly on the right, in Europe and the Americas." The Guardian

WASHINGTON INC. -- "Inside a corporate giant's fight to thwart a massive pollution tab," by Annie Snider: "Chemical industry giant 3M is waging an aggressive campaign to stave off new regulations and potentially billions of dollars in damages stemming from a contamination crisis that has fouled tens of millions of Americans' drinking water." POLITICO

NYT'S DAVID SANGER and WILLIAM BROAD: "Saudis Want a U.S. Nuclear Deal. Can They Be Trusted Not to Build a Bomb?": "Before Saudi Arabia's crown prince, Mohammed bin Salman, was implicated by the C.I.A. in the killing of Jamal Khashoggi, American intelligence agencies were trying to solve a separate mystery: Was the prince laying the groundwork for building an atomic bomb? 

"The 33-year-old heir to the Saudi throne had been overseeing a negotiation with the Energy Department and the State Department to get the United States to sell designs for nuclear power plants to the kingdom. The deal was worth upward of $80 billion, depending on how many plants Saudi Arabia decided to build.

"But there is a hitch: Saudi Arabia insists on producing its own nuclear fuel, even though it could buy it more cheaply abroad, according to American and Saudi officials familiar with the negotiations. That raised concerns in Washington that the Saudis could divert their fuel into a covert weapons project - exactly what the United States and its allies feared Iran was doing before it reached the 2015 nuclear accord, which President Trump has since abandoned.

"Prince Mohammed set off alarms when he declared earlier this year, in the midst of the negotiation, that if Iran, Saudi Arabia's fiercest rival, 'developed a nuclear bomb, we will follow suit as soon as possible.' His negotiators stirred more worries by telling the Trump administration that Saudi Arabia would refuse to sign an agreement that would allow United Nations inspectors to look anywhere in the country for signs that the Saudis might be working on a bomb, American officials said." NYT

SUNDAY SO FAR - CBS' "Face the Nation": Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) ... Sen. Angus King (I-Maine) ... Rep. Trey Gowdy (R-S.C.)

-- "Fox News Sunday": Corey Lewandowski and David Bossie. Panel: Jonah Goldberg, Adrienne Elrod, Matthew Continetti and Mo Elleithee

-- NBC's "Meet the Press": Rep. Elijah Cummings (D-Md.) ... Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah) ... Tom Steyer. Panel: Helene Cooper, Elise Jordan, Doris Kearns Goodwin and Danielle Pletka

-- CNN's "State of the Union": Sen. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa) ... Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.). Panel: Rick Santorum, Symone Sanders, Jen Psaki and Bill Kristol (guest host: Dana Bash)

-- CNN's Inside Politics": Margaret Talev, Karoun Demirjian, Michael Warren and Catherine Lucey (guest host: Nia-Malika Henderson)

                 PLAYBOOKERS      
BIRTHWEEK (was yesterday): Tim Cameron of FlexPoint Media (h/t Steve Johnston)

BIRTHDAY OF THE DAY: Sheria Clarke, staff director for House Oversight and Government Reform Committee -- Playbook Plus Q&A

BIRTHDAYS: Geoff Morrell, group head of communications and external affairs at BP ... Carolyn Ryan, NYT assistant managing editor ... Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) is 68 ... Rep. Debbie Dingell (D-Mich.) is 65 ... Robin Roberts is 58 ... former Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-La.) is 63 ... Rep. Bobby Rush (D-Ill.) is 72 ... Yashar Ali is 39 ... former Labor Secretary William Brock is 88 ... Amy Schatz, director of Glen Echo Group ... Emily Zoda ... Joey Francilus ... Geoff Mackler is 43 ... Dan Snyder is 53 ... Consumer Bankers Association president and CEO Richard Hunt ... Andrea Lavin Solow ... Matt Farrauto ... Patrick Pfingsten ... Politico Europe's Virginie Dandoy ... RNC's Rick Gorka (h/t Ryan
 Mahoney) ... Adam Belmar ... Matt Dennis is 38 ... Kyunghan Kim ... Alex Gansa, co-creator and showrunner of "Homeland" ...Josh Levitt ... Meghan Womack ...

... BBC's Suzanne Kianpour ... Amir Afkhami, whose new book "A Modern Contagion: Imperialism and Public Health in Iran's Age of Cholera," will be released in February (h/t wife Hastie) ... AFP's Bill Riggs (h/ts Mark Holden and James Davis) ... Yashar Hedayat ... HuffPost overnight editor Jade Walker ... Nancy Ortmeyer Kuhn ... Rep.-elect Sean Casten (D-Ill.) is 47 ... Mary Jennings, WeWork public affairs and a Hillary alum, is 3-5 (h/t Jack) ... CAP's Jeremy Slevin ... Julia Gill Woodward ... Will Glasscock ... Austin Shafran ... Colby Nelson ... John Marshall ... Charlie Goodyear ... Chelsea Bollinger ... Sheara Braun, producer for MSNBC's "All In" ... Laura Chavez ... Emily Jansen ...
 Google's Brittany Griffin ... Melissa Pardue ... James Griffin ... Mari Eder ... Chris Carter ... Chris Dovi is 47 ... Liz Victorin ... former Wisconsin Gov. Jim Doyle is 73 ... Diane Begala ... Joe Shanahan (h/ts Teresa Vilmain) 
       
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