Subject: POLITICO Playbook: The good, and the challenges, for Pelosi
From: "Anna Palmer Jake Sherman Daniel Lippman" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 29 Nov 2018 05:03:43 -0600
List-Id: <1376319.xt.local>

Presented by Better Medicare Alliance: Playbook is POLITICO's must-read briefing on what's driving the day                Nov 29, 2018 View in browser                   
 By Anna Palmer, Jake Sherman and Daniel Lippman 
         
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              DRIVING THE DAY      
NEWS ... WAPO'S AMIE FERRIS-ROTMAN: "Kremlin says Trump, Putin have agreed to meet one on one at G-20 summit on Saturday"

NANCY PELOSI ... THE REALLY GOOD VIEW, AND THE CHALLENGES ... 

-- THE REALLY GOOD VIEW: PELOSI was able to cut her defectors in half: In 2016, 63 lawmakers voted against her. Thirty-two people voted no yesterday, and it's much easier to vote no in caucus than it is on the floor. Pelosi definitely has momentum. John Bresnahan, Rachael Bade and Heather Caygle report that she appears to have picked up the support of Massachusetts Rep. Stephen Lynch, who originally signed onto the Never-Pelosi letter. More from their story on Pelosi's momentum

PELOSI ALLIES say she is going to keep doing what she has been -- meeting with individual members, and trying to pick them off one by one. While some lawmakers have pushed her to be specific about exactly how long she plans to stay as speaker, so far she has swatted down any attempt to try and pin her down on when exactly she would step down. 

-- RACHAEL BADE, JOHN BRESNAHAN and HEATHER CAYGLE: "The rebels, led by Democratic Reps. Kathleen Rice of New York, Seth Moulton of Massachusetts and Tim Ryan of Ohio, want her to go, or at the very least commit to passing the gavel by a certain deadline. But Pelosi doesn't feel like she needs to and isn't even considering such a concession." POLITICO

LOOK FOR PELOSI SUPPORTERS to continue to raise the point that a vote against the California Democrat on the House floor is effectively a vote for a Republican speaker. 

ALSO: Washington is about to plunge into a legislative crisis -- and Pelosi can benefit from that. If she deftly navigates the wall funding fight, that could inspire serious confidence among those who haven't seen Pelosi go toe to toe with a president. 

-- THE CHALLENGES: Pelosi still needs to flip a dozen or so no votes -- and that's a lot of work. ONE THING TO WATCH: It's unclear how many members will choose to vote "present" instead of casting a vote against Pelosi on the House floor. A handful of present votes would lower the number of votes Pelosi has to flip.

WHAT'S NEXT: Lawmakers are meeting today to elect their regional representatives on the Steering and Policy Committee. This panel helps pick what members get on specific committees. Another way to think about it: Many members (including the freshmen) want many things, and getting sideways with the expected future speaker isn't likely to help their case.

WELCOME TO THE MAJORITY ... "Lobbyists use drinks, new hires to connect with House Democrats," by Theo Meyer and Marianne LeVine: "Democrats campaigned to win back the House. Now lobbyists are campaigning to win over newly elected Democrats. Lobbyists are hosting mixers with the new members. Companies and lobbying firms are looking to scoop up former Hill staffers with connections to House leadership and the Congressional Black Caucus, which is expected to be one of the most powerful blocs in the Democratic House.

"And K Street types are introducing clients to freshmen lawmakers, including those who may nab spots on powerful panels such as the Energy and Commerce, Financial Services, Ways and Means, Justice, and Oversight and Government Reform committees." POLITICO

KYLE CHENEY: "Democrats press the case for Trump-Russia 'collusion'": "'Collusion' is back. After a slowdown before the midterm elections, the Trump-Russia saga has reached a new crescendo, with Democrats pointing to what they call new evidence of collaboration between the 2016 Trump campaign and Moscow - even as President Donald Trump added legal weight to his denials. 

"A dizzying flurry of headlines, leaks and legal action over the past several days have shined new light on contacts between Trump associates and Wikileaks founder Julian Assange, who in 2016 released Hillary Clinton campaign emails that U.S. officials say were stolen by Russian operatives.

"Democrats say they strengthen the case - widely dismissed by Republicans - that the Trump campaign was aware of or even helped to coordinate the email dumps. 'It's always smelled like collusion,' Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-Calif.), a member of the House Intelligence Committee, said in an interview. But after this week's developments, he said, 'It doesn't smell less like collusion. It smells more.'" POLITICO
       
A message from Better Medicare Alliance:
 
Seniors need Congress to act now. Delay of the 2020 Health Insurance Tax (HIT) would preserve affordable access to needed coverage and care for seniors, individuals with disabilities, and low-income beneficiaries in Medicare Advantage. Learn More.
         
THE INVESTIGATIONS ... 

-- WAPO'S MANUEL ROIG-FRANZIA, CAROL LEONNIG, ROS HELDERMAN and JOSH DAWSEY: "Trump's night-owl calls to Roger Stone in 2016 draw scrutiny in Mueller probe": "The calls almost always came deep into the night. Caller ID labeled them 'unknown,' but Roger Stone said he knew to pick up quickly during those harried months of the 2016 presidential campaign. There would be a good chance that the voice on the other end of the line would belong to his decades-long friend - the restless, insomniac candidate Donald Trump - dialing from a blocked phone number.

"Those nocturnal chats and other contacts between the man who now occupies the Oval Office and an infamous political trickster have come under intensifying scrutiny as special counsel Robert S. Mueller III's investigation bores into whether Stone served as a bridge between Trump and WikiLeaks as the group was publishing hacked Democratic emails.

"Mueller's keen interest in their relationship was laid out in a draft court document revealed this week in which prosecutors drew a direct line between the two men - referring to Stone as someone understood to be in regular contact with senior Trump campaign officials, 'including with then-candidate Donald J. Trump.'" WaPo

-- "Manafort Lied About Business Dealings, Mueller's Team Believes," by WSJ's Aruna Viswanatha and Rebecca Ballhaus: "Paul Manafort's alleged misstatements to special counsel Robert Mueller's investigators include comments about his personal business dealings and about his contacts with a former associate in Ukraine, say people familiar with the matter." WSJ

-- "Trump says pardon for Paul Manafort still a possibility," by the New York Post's Marisa Schultz and Nikki Schwab: "'It was never discussed, but I wouldn't take it off the table. Why would I take it off the table?' the president said during an Oval Office interview. He ripped special counsel Robert Mueller's probe and charged that Manafort, former political adviser Roger Stone and Stone's associate Jerome Corsi were all asked to lie by the special counsel. 'If you told the truth, you go to jail,' Trump said." NYP

-- "Key Mueller witness: I lied and I'm ready to die in jail" -- MSNBC: "In a blockbuster interview, key Mueller witness and Roger Stone associate Jerome Corsi admits to MSNBC's Ari Melber that he lied to Congress, that he tried to get stolen Clinton emails back to the Trump campaign in 2016, that he 'absolutely' intended to help the Trump campaign by doing so, that he told Roger Stone about John Podesta's emails and that his lawyers are still communicating with Trump's legal team 'as if' there is a joint legal defense." MSNBC

THE SEASON PREMIERE ... STORMY VS. AVENATTI ... "Stormy Daniels: Michael Avenatti Sued Trump For Defamation Against My Wishes," by The Daily Beast's Betsy Woodruff and Kate Briquelet: "Michael Avenatti sued Donald Trump for defaming Stormy Daniels against her wishes, Daniels told The Daily Beast in a statement on Wednesday. Avenatti also started a new fundraising site to raise money for her legal defense fund without telling her, Daniels said. She said she is not sure whether or not she will keep Avenatti on as her lawyer." Daily Beast

THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION -- GABBY ORR and ELIANA JOHNSON: "U.N. ambassador hunt drags on as top candidate fades": "The hunt for a new United Nations ambassador - a job for which State Department spokeswoman Heather Nauert was once considered a lock but is now out of contention - has faced repeated delays and is running up against Nikki Haley's end-of-year departure date. Meanwhile, a raft of new candidates has emerged, but no one has grabbed the front-runner mantel, raising the possibility that President Donald Trump could tap someone at the 11th hour who has already been passed over. 

"The White House Counsel's office has not yet been asked to vet anyone for the role, further indicating the president may not have settled on a finalist. 'It seems like this has been the position they could never quite find someone to fill,' said a Republican close to the White House, who added that Trump has mostly struggled to find someone who shares his disruptive foreign policy impulses." POLITICO
           
A message from Better Medicare Alliance:

 
Seniors will face increased costs. Congress, delay the Health Insurance Tax and protect our seniors. Learn More.
         
POLITICO ADDS REPORTING FIREPOWER: Executive Editor Paul Volpe and Deputy Managing Editor Mike Zapler announced a trio of additions to the 2020 politics team this morning. ELENA SCHNEIDER, LAURA BARRON-LOPEZ and HOLLY OTTERBEIN will be national political reporters. Schneider most recently was a POLITICO Campaign Pro reporter. Barr&oacute;n-L&oacute;pez joins from the Washington Examiner and Otterbein comes on board from the Philadelphia Inquirer. 

TRUMP'S THURSDAY -- The president and first lady Melania Trump will leave the White House at 10 a.m. to travel to Buenos Aires, Argentina, for the G-20.

-- POLITICO'S ADAM BEHSUDI and SOUTH CHINA MORNING POST'S HE HUIFENG: "How U.S. and Chinese firms are outmaneuvering Trump in trade war" 
                 PLAYBOOK READS         

PHOTO DU JOUR: The National Christmas Tree is lit at the White House on Wednesday in the 96th annual lighting ceremony. | Mark Wilson/Getty Images
   
THE NEW MINORITY ... TEXAS REP. MIKE MCCAUL, who has reached his term limit as chairman of the Homeland Security Committee, is running for his party's top spot on the Foreign Affairs Committee. He has nabbed the endorsement of Ed Royce of California, the outgoing chairman. Royce's endorsement letter

2020 WATCH -- "AP Exclusive: Mormons support GOP, but Trump approval lags," by Hannah Fingerhut and Brady McCombs: "About two-thirds of Mormon voters nationwide favored Republicans in the midterm elections, but President Donald Trump's approval rating among members of the faith lagged behind, according to a nationwide survey of midterm voters.

"And as Republican Sen. Mitt Romney prepares to join the new Congress in January, most voters in the predominantly Mormon state of Utah - 64 percent - would like to see the senator confront the president, AP VoteCast found. About half of Romney's supporters - including his Mormon supporters - said they would like to see the former Massachusetts governor stand up to Trump, while about as many indicated the senator should support Trump if elected." AP

SCOTT BLAND: "Pro-Bernie group hacked in quarter-million dollar email scam": "The political nonprofit [Our Revolution] launched by Sen. Bernie Sanders in 2016 lost nearly a quarter-million dollars to an email scam that year, according to new tax documents obtained by POLITICO." POLITICO

VALLEY TALK -- "Facebook Considered Charging for Access to User Data," by WSJ's Deepa Seetharaman and Kirsten Grind: "Internal emails show Facebook Inc. considered charging companies for continued access to user data several years ago, a step that would have marked a dramatic shift away from the social-media giant's policy of not selling that information, according to an unredacted court document viewed by The Wall Street Journal. ... At a congressional hearing in April, Facebook Chief Executive Mark Zuckerberg said, 'I can't be clearer on this topic: We don't sell data.'" WSJ
           
A message from Better Medicare Alliance:

 
The 2020 Health Insurance Tax will raise costs for seniors. Congressional action is needed now. Learn More.
         
DEEP DIVE -- "'If Bobbie Talks, I'm Finished': How Les Moonves Tried to Silence an Accuser," by NYT's James Stewart, Rachel Abrams and Ellen Gabler: "A trove of text messages details a plan by Mr. Moonves and a faded Hollywood manager to bury a sexual assault allegation. Instead, the scheme helped sink the CBS chief, and may cost him $120 million." NYT

MEDIAWATCH -- "Fox News will not tweet this story," by Jason Schwartz: "Fox News hasn't tweeted since Nov. 8, when it began a silent protest against Twitter after a group of demonstrators posted star host Tucker Carlson's home address on the social network. With the apparent boycott - which also includes the Fox Business Network Twitter feed, as well as a few other official Fox News feeds - set to enter its third week, Fox News has remained all but mum on why it's avoiding the platform or what it hopes to accomplish.

"But owner Rupert Murdoch has long expressed frustration with social media platforms like Twitter, which he believes benefit greatly from news publishers' content without offering enough in return. ... 'It's weird that a news organization would do a silent boycott,' said one former Fox News executive, who pointed out that, if there is a dispute with Twitter, the usual response would be to report on it. 'It's like having a protest inside of your bedroom and not telling anybody.'" POLITICO
                 PLAYBOOKERS      
SPOTTED: Sens. Dick Durbin (D-Ill.), Jon Tester (D-Mont.), Heidi Heitkamp (D-N.D.) and Joe Donnelly (D-Ind.) having dinner last night at Boxcar Tavern in Eastern Market.

BIRTHWEEK (was yesterday): Ryan Hedgepeth, COS for Rep. Brenda Lawrence (D-Mich.) (hat tip: Mitchell Rivard) ... Erik Noble ... Courtney DeBower

BIRTHDAY OF THE DAY: Margaret Carlson, columnist at The Daily Beast. How she got her start in journalism: "After passing the bar exam, I realized I'd made a terrible mistake. I found a halfway house writing for the Legal Times. Then the New Republic's great editor Michael Kinsley called. Eventually I made my way to TIME where I became the first woman columnist there, novel enough in the 90s that it was a story in the NY Times." Playbook Plus Q&A

BIRTHDAYS: Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel is 59 ... Janet Napolitano, president of the UC system, is 61 ... L.A. Times' Mark Barabak ... Vin Scully is 91 ... Emily Lenzner, SVP of global comms for Atlantic Media (h/t Benji) ... Joan Sass ... Maggie Delahoyde of the White House ... Hayley Dierker, COS of the National Democratic Redistricting Committee ... Matt Hall, co-founder and partner at Harbinger, is 36 (h/t Leah Malone) ... Tom Doheny, director of media relations for General Dynamics Information Technology (h/t wife Danielle) ... Joe Sternlieb ... CNN's Pamela Brown ... Ceara Flake (h/t Brian Sansoni) ... William Turner is 29 ... Reuters' Alissa de Carbonnel ... Facebook's Tom&aacute;
 Beczak ... POLITICO's Christina Lee ... Reuters' Alexandra Ulmer is 3-0 ... former French President Jacques Chirac is 86 ... Madeline Ryan ... Cliff Hurst ... Trent Spiner, executive editor of the New Hampshire Union Leader, is 33 ... 

... Shalom Lipner, nonresident senior fellow at Brookings ... Chris Frates, founder of Storyline and a SiriusXM host and a POLITICO and CNN alum (h/t Mark Preston) ... former Indiana state Sen. Amanda Banks is 39. She celebrated with family at Cafe Milano (hubby tip: Jim) ... Jemma York, deputy director of the Democratic Policy and Communications Committee (h/t Grant Dubler) ... former Rep. Jean Schmidt (R-Ohio) is 67 ... Robert Hedden ... Ian Magruder ... Louise Rothschild ... Anastasia Szold (hubby tip: Charlie) ... Geoffrey Ogunlesi ... Liza Acevedo ... Jen Samawat ... Sydelle Moore ... Jonathan Hirshon ... Cliff Wilkes ... Gregory Ferenstein ... Juri Jacoby ... Sarah Venuto ... Ryan
 Leavitt ... Doug Wilson ... Josh Stinn ... Emily Hawkins ... Ann Fishman ... Mike Fitzgerald (h/ts Teresa Vilmain)
       
A message from Better Medicare Alliance:
 
Medicare Advantage premiums went down for 2019 in part because the Health Insurance Tax was suspended. The return of the Health Insurance Tax (HIT) in 2020 would force 21 million beneficiaries to pay more for their Medicare Advantage coverage when they simply cannot afford it. Congressional action is needed now to delay the 2020 HIT Tax to protect seniors. Learn More.
                        
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