Subject: Playbook PM: Trump’s bullish, but new NAFTA faces uphill battle
From: "Anna Palmer Jake Sherman Daniel Lippman" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 30 Nov 2018 11:59:05 -0600
List-Id: <1376319.xt.local>

Presented by Better Medicare Alliance: Playbook is POLITICO's must-read briefing on what's driving the day                Nov 30, 2018 View in browser                   
 By Anna Palmer, Jake Sherman, Daniel Lippman, Eli Okun and Garrett Ross 
         
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HOT DOCS ... The NRSC has its retreat this weekend in Sea Island, Ga. Attendee list ... Agenda

THE BRO-FIVE SEEN AROUND THE WORLD ... MBS and Vladimir Putin high-five in Buenos Aires, Argentina. C-SPAN video

HEADS UP -- THE INVESTIGATIONS ... KYLE CHENEY: "Mueller could hit Manafort with retrial, new charges": "Special counsel Robert Mueller's office is considering retrying former Trump campaign chairman Paul Manafort on a slew of federal charges that resulted in a hung jury over the summer.

"At a hearing in federal court Friday morning, prosecutors said they are also weighing leveling new criminal charges for Manafort, contending that he obstructed justice and committed additional federal crimes since entering a plea agreement with the special counsel in September." POLITICO 

NORTH AMERICAN NATIONS signed the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement in Buenos Aires this morning. "This is a model agreement that changes the trade landscape forever, and this is an agreement that first and foremost benefits working people," PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP said, per pooler Peter Baker of the NYT.

-- TRUMP ON GETTING THE DEAL THROUGH CONGRESS: "It's been so well reviewed I don't expect to have very much of a problem."

FACT CHECK: It will be tough.

-- CANADIAN PRIME MINISTER JUSTIN TRUDEAU publicly pressed Trump on scrapping steel and aluminum tariffs. 

THE STEP BACK ... DOUG PALMER and MEGAN CASSELLA in Buenos Aires: "NAFTA 2.0 is signed - but it's far from finished": "Despite a push by a handful of Republican senators to vote on the agreement during the lame-duck session, procedural hurdles make it almost certain there won't be a vote until sometime next year when Democrats are controlling the House. That's jeopardizing President Donald Trump's chances of fulfilling what has been a signature pledge of his presidency.

"Trump expressed confidence Friday that the pact would sail through Congress. ... But it actually remains far from certain that the agreement would pass the two chambers, particularly in its current form. ... Chances that the Trump administration will reopen the agreement once it's signed are low. But the administration could work to appease some congressional concerns by negotiating side deals or including provisions in the implementing bill that address issues like labor and environmental standards or enforcement." POLITICO 

-- @realDonaldTrump at 9:45 a.m.: "Just signed one of the most important, and largest, Trade Deals in U.S. and World History. The United States, Mexico and Canada worked so well together in crafting this great document. The terrible NAFTA will soon be gone. The USMCA will be fantastic for all!"

MORE FROM BUENOS AIRES -- ANDREW RESTUCCIA: "In Argentina, Trump has Mueller on his mind" ... "White House, Kremlin clash on plans for Trump-Putin chat" 

-- JARED KUSHNER received the Mexican Order of the Aztec Eagle, the country's highest honor, from MEXICAN PRESIDENT ENRIQUE PENA NIETO. "While there has been a lot of tough talk, I have seen the genuine respect and care that President Trump has for Mexico and the Mexican people and I do believe we have been able to put that in the right light," Kushner said. Trump's Instapic of Jared and his prize

-- TRUMP and ARGENTINE PRESIDENT MAURICIO MACRI discussed Venezuela, trade and "predatory Chinese economic activity" over breakfast, according to Sarah Huckabee Sanders.

-- NYT'S MARK LANDLER and JANE PERLEZ: "At Stake When Xi and Trump Meet: The Possibility of a New Cold War" 

-- DOUG PALMER: "Ross left out of G-20 activities": "Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross is conspicuously absent from the U.S. delegation at the G-20 summit. Trump's decision to leave Ross back in Washington appears to be another sign of the Commerce chief's diminished role in trade negotiations, after he had taken the lead over the trade portfolio early in the administration." POLITICO 

Good Friday afternoon. SHINZO GETS IT! NBC'S JON ALLEN (@jonallendc): "PM Shinzo Abe of Japan to Trump just now at G20: 'I want to congratulate you on your historic victory in the midterm election in the United States.'"

A message from Better Medicare Alliance:
 
Seniors need Congress to act now. Delay of the 2020 Health Insurance Tax (HIT) would preserve affordable access to needed coverage and care for seniors, individuals with disabilities, and low-income beneficiaries in Medicare Advantage. Learn More.
         
NYT'S MARK LEIBOVICH: "On the Trump-Mood Beat - But Why?"

YIKES -- 2018 AIN'T OVER YET ... "'Tangled web' in Bladen County has questions swirling about votes in the 9th District," by The Charlotte Observer's Jim Morrill: "Allegations of voting irregularities in and around Bladen County swirled on Thursday, with the North Carolina Democratic Party calling for an official hearing and a flurry of affidavits surfacing involving absentee ballots. The allegations are apparently behind this week's decision by the State Board of Elections and Ethics Reform to not certify the results of the congressional race ... 

"The man at the center of speculation about the alleged activities, McCrae Dowless, was paid by the [Mark] Harris campaign as a contractor for the candidate's top consultant. ... Bladen County had the highest percentage of absentee ballot requests in the state. There, 7.5 percent of registered voters requested absentee ballots. In most counties it was less than 3 percent. ... [Dan] McCready won a lopsided majority of the mailed-in absentee ballots. But not in Bladen County. There, Republican Mark Harris won 61 percent even though registered Republicans accounted for only 19 percent of the county's accepted absentee ballots." The Charlotte Observer

WHITAKER WATCH -- WAPO'S CAROL LEONNIG, ROSALIND HELDERMAN and TOM HAMBURGER: "Acting attorney general Whitaker fielded early fraud complaints from customers at patent company yet promoted it for years, records show" ... BLOOMBERG'S GREG FARRELL, ANDREW MARTIN and DAVID VOREACOS: "Acting AG Appears to Have Misled FTC Over Actions at Miami Firm"

COMING ATTRACTIONS -- "First bill for new House Democratic majority: Campaign finance, ethics reform," by Maggie Severns: "The bill will receive the designation of H.R.1 in the next Congress, a sign of its importance to House leaders and to newly elected members ... It would create national automatic voter registration, call to 'end partisan gerrymandering,' require 'all political organizations' to disclose donors and overhaul the Federal Election Commission. It would also revamp federal ethics laws, including mandating the disclosure of the president's tax returns ...

"[T]hey are expected to have trouble passing the package in the Republican-controlled Senate. Some advocates hope that, after the House passes the bill, pieces of it could be broken off and negotiated with the Senate or included as policy riders." POLITICO

IMMIGRATION FILES -- "Job One for Mexico's New Leader: Fix Migrant Crisis," by WSJ's Juan Montes in Mexico City: "The issue will top the agenda when incoming Foreign Minister Marcelo Ebrard holds a working dinner on Sunday with U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo in Washington. Mr. Ebrard and U.S. officials have been discussing a plan in recent weeks that would require migrants seeking asylum in the U.S. to wait in Mexico while their claims are processed, say members of Mr. L&oacute;pez Obrador's team.

"In exchange, Mr. L&oacute;pez Obrador wants the U.S. to significantly raise the number of asylum requests it processes and provide funds to help shelter and assist migrants." WSJ 

-- REUTERS' TOM HALS: "Trump demand that asylum seekers wait in Mexico may turn on legal clause": "Legal experts said the proposal, if adopted, is expected to be challenged in court and could come down to the legality of a 'contiguous territory' provision in U.S. immigration law. It allows for the return to Mexico of migrants who are in deportation proceedings while their asylum claim is reviewed. The little-known provision has rarely if ever been used, in part because it would require a deal with Mexico to accept the migrants." Reuters

TELL US HOW YOU REALLY FEEL! -- NPR'S STEVE INSKEEP (@NPRinskeep): "Great talk with defeated D Sen. @clairecmc: tells @rachelnpr Tom Cotton is 'kinda rude;' Ted Cruz is trying to be nicer; moderates have 'black armbands' because 'we feel like we've lost Lindsay Graham.' It's 'rude' to name names, she admits, 'but what the hell?' @MorningEdition" ... The interview

UH OH ... ERIC GELLER: "Marriott says hackers compromised 500 million guests' data": "The compromised data included detailed information - including names, mailing addresses, phone numbers, passport numbers and dates of birth - for 327 million people, Marriott said, as well as payment information for some of those people, although the company said that data was encrypted.

"The intrusion began in 2014 and was discovered on Nov. 19, the company said. ... The company, which is working with law enforcement to investigate the breach, said it would begin emailing affected guests today. It is also offering victims free access to a service that monitors the internet for their personal information." POLITICO 

WSJ'S NICK TIMIRAOS: "President Trump Bashes the Fed. This Is How the Fed Chief Responds": Fed Chairman Jerome "Powell has told others that he knows the president's criticism could make his life unpleasant, but that he wouldn't respond to political pressure. People close to Mr. Powell said he understood that history would judge him on policy decisions made over his four-year term.

"His political headaches may swell faster than the economy next year as Mr. Trump prepares to run for re-election. The central bank anticipates growth in the economy to slow, while rates are expected to continue rising." WSJ 

ALEX GUILLEN: "EPA watchdog couldn't find Pruitt travel records leaker" ... WAPO'S JULIET EILPERIN: "EPA watchdog clears former policy chief Samantha Dravis of charges she skipped work"

NBC'S JULIA AINSLEY: "Inside Trump's Guantanamo, where military waits for funding for 'enduring mission'": "The Obama administration's stated goal was to close Guantanamo Bay Prison, or Gitmo. Under President Donald Trump, the detention camp for alleged terrorists is now an 'enduring mission.' There are 40 detainees left at Gitmo. Detainees who arrived as young men are growing old. Their average age is 46, and one is now 71.

"The controversial interrogation techniques that were once synonymous with Gitmo would provide no battlefield intelligence today, [Rear Adm. John] Ring said, because the last detainee was transferred here in 2008. Instead he worries about cell doors that aren't wide enough for wheel chairs and hospital beds, what it would look like to build something resembling a nursing home at Guantanamo, and one detention camp that is on the verge of falling into disrepair." NBC 

KNOWING ELIZABETH WARREN -- MICHAEL KRUSE in POLITICO MAGAZINE: "The Making of Elizabeth Warren: In 2004, she was a well-respected but little-known academic with an obscure specialty. Then Dr. Phil called": POLITICO Magazine 

THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION -- "Trump administration approves seismic tests that could harm many thousands of Atlantic dolphins and whales," by WaPo's Darryl Fears: "The Trump administration is preparing to take an important step toward future oil and natural gas drilling off the Atlantic shore ... According to one model prediction ... nearly 2.5 million dolphins would be harassed or possibly killed by acoustic sound blasts each year in the middle and southern Atlantic, and nearly half a million pilot whales would be impacted." WaPo

TV TONIGHT -- Bob Costa sits down with NYT's Mike Schmidt, The Atlantic's Natasha Bertrand and WaPo's Matea Gold on PBS' "Washington Week" at 8 p.m.

OUT AND ABOUT -- SPOTTED at the Trump hotel Thursday night for a book party for Corey Lewandowski and David Bossie and their new book "Trump's Enemies: How the Deep State Is Undermining the Presidency" ($18.88 on Amazon): Interior Secretary Ryan Zinke, Kellyanne Conway, Reps. Lee Zeldin (R-N.Y.) and Kevin Yoder (R-Kan.), Josh Green, Alex Nazaryan, Dave Urban, Andy Surabian, Annie Linskey, Andrew Peek, Todd Ricketts, Brian Baker, Amanda House, Ali Dukakis, Mike Isikoff, Tom Bossert, Boris Epshteyn, Hogan Gidley, Saagar Enjeti, Vince Haley, Tony Sayegh, Alexandra Preate, Steven Cheung, Heather Swift, Cliff Sims and Matt Mowers.

-- SPOTTED at Vox founder Jim Bankoff's Palisades home last night in honor of Kara Swisher, co-founder of his latest acquisition Recode: Maureen Dowd, Jay Carney, Don Graham and Amanda Bennett, Susan Rice and Ian Cameron, Nick Johnston, Margaret Carlson, Evan Ryan, David Gregory and Beth Wilkerson, Meridith Webster, Walt Mossberg, Don Baer, Ruth Marcus, Mike Allen, Hilary Rosen, Carol Melton, Tammy Haddad, Olivia Nuzzi and Ryan Lizza, Jay Newton Small, Jay Carney, Joel Benenson and Matt Yglesias.

-- SPOTTED at Subject Matter's holiday party Thursday night: House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), Nick Calio, Sally Veith, Will Kinzel and Heather Podesta. Pic 

TRANSITIONS -- Ian Koski will be principal at Quorom Creative. He is currently senior director of communications for North America at the ONE Campaign. ... Ian Jannetta is starting next week as media relations manager at WMATA. He previously was press secretary for Sen. Heidi Heitkamp (D-N.D.). ... Nora Benavidez will be director of U.S. free expression programs at PEN America. She was previously a civil and human rights lawyer in Atlanta.

BONUS BIRTHDAY OF THE DAY: Lauren Pratapas, senior director of communications at CNN. A fun fact about Lauren: "I lived in Canada for 6 years. My dad was a U.S. diplomat posted to the United States Embassy in Ottawa. If you haven't tried poutine, you are really missing out." Playbook Plus Q&A
           
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