Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score: How Democrats lagged with Florida Hispanic voters — A shortage of minority senior staffers for Democratic presidential hopefuls — Kennedy skips Louisiana governor run to stay in Senate
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
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Date: Tue, 04 Dec 2018 09:02:16 -0600
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12/04/2018 10:00 AM EDT
        
By ZACH MONTELLARO ([email-masked]; @ZachMontellaro)

        
Editor's Note: This edition of Morning Score is published weekdays at 10 a.m. POLITICO Campaign Pro subscribers hold exclusive early access to the newsletter each morning at 6 a.m. To learn more about POLITICO Pro's comprehensive policy intelligence coverage, policy tools and services, click here. 
          THE TOPLINES         
WHAT HAPPENED? - In a very strong year for Democrats, one area of disappointment came in Florida, where they narrowly lost two statewide elections thanks in part to lagging turnout among Hispanic voters. Is it time to worry? Michael Grunwald and Marc Caputo in POLITICO Magazine: "Woody Allen said that 80 percent of life is showing up, and operatives from both parties agreed that Florida Democrats have been remarkably slow to learn that lesson when it comes to Hispanic outreach. Instead of organizing year-round, they've assumed demography would be destiny. Instead of selling progressive policies aggressively on Spanish-language media, they've assumed their positions on issues like
 immigration and health care would speak for themselves. And while Democrats are starting to put in more face time in Hispanic communities, Republicans are still doing a better job of nuts-and-bolts politicking with a demographic that is now one-sixth of the state's electorate."

STAFFING UP - Potential 2020 candidates are hitting a roadblock. Campaign Pro's Daniel Strauss: "Potential 2020 Democratic presidential candidates in the early stages of assembling campaign staffs are running into an uncomfortable truth: Among the already small pool of capable operatives, there's an even smaller pool of non-white campaign managers and senior advisers.

"The shortage could have serious repercussions given the large number of expected candidates and the diverse makeup of the Democratic electorate. ... The emerging campaigns of some would-be candidates have tried to get a jump on the problem, compiling spreadsheets of potential minority staffers and holding discussions with the candidates about the need to assemble diverse teams."

Good Tuesday morning. Giles Perkins, the architect of Democratic Sen. Doug Jones' 2017 upset in Alabama, died over the weekend after fighting pancreatic cancer. Daniel talked to Jones and some of Perkins' colleagues about his legacy. Email me at [email-masked] or DM me at @ZachMontellaro. 

Email the great Campaign Pro team at [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked] and [email-masked]. Follow them on Twitter: @PoliticoScott, @JamesArkin, @ec_schneider and @DanielStrauss4.

Days until the 2019 election: 336

Days until the 2020 election: 700
          IN THE TRENCHES         
NC-09, CONTINUED - The North Carolina state board of elections is investigating election fraud allegations revolving around the actions of Leslie McCrae Dowless, an independent contractor for Republican Mark Harris and the man at the center of the controversy over absentee ballot collecting in the district. The Washington Post's Amy Gardner and Kirk Ross reported that "the board issued a subpoena to the Harris campaign, according to campaign attorney John Branch. The board is expected to issue one soon to Red Dome Group, a GOP consulting firm based in the suburbs of Charlotte that hired Dowless, according to two people familiar with the probe.The elections board has collected information
 suggesting that high-level officials in the campaign may have been aware of Dowless' activities, according to the two people. In statements to The Washington Post, Branch and Harris's chief consultant, Andy Yates, confirmed that Dowless was hired by Red Dome to work on the campaign but denied that officials were aware of any illegal activity." 

Meanwhile, an investigation on absentee ballots in Bladen County by WSOC's Joe Bruno found "similarities" between some absentee ballots, with some witnesses signing dozens of different ballots. Also worth listening to: This 2016 "This American Life" episode, which said Dowless was "accused of paying people to obtain absentee ballots, fill them out, and cast their votes on someone else's behalf." Dowless was also once convicted of fraud, The Charlotte Observer's Brian Murphy and Ely Portillo reported. 

- Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper named Joshua Malcolm, a Democratic lawyer, to chair the state's board of elections. The previous chair resigned after discovery of his tweets criticizing President Donald Trump, via The Observer's Zachery Eanes.

MORE CA-21 VOTES - Democrat TJ Cox's lead over GOP Rep. David Valadao inched up to 843 votes in a Monday update in the district.

STICKING AROUND - GOP Sen. John Kennedy is staying in the Senate, opting not to challenge Louisiana Democratic Gov. John Bel Edwards in 2019. "I love being in the United States Senate. I will not be a candidate for Governor in 2019," Kennedy said in a statement, per POLITICO's Burgess Everett. "I hope someone runs for governor who understands that Louisiana state government does not have to be a big, slow, dumb, wasteful, sometimes corrupt, spend-money-like-it-was-ditchwater, anti-taxpayer, top-down institution."

THE PRESIDENTIAL BIG BOARD - Former staffers of Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) are launching a bid to draft him to run for president in 2020. Rolling Stone's Matt Taibbi reports that the effort is spearheaded by his former deputy campaign manager, Rich Pelletier, and a constellation of Colorado staffers.

- Washington Gov. Jay Inslee said he wasn't "ruling out anything in 2020." He added that fighting climate change would be a winning issue in an interview with Rolling Stone's Andy Kroll.

CAMPAIGN FINANCE WATCH - A top political strategist to outgoing Rep. Robert Brady (D-Pa.) was found guilty of several finance violations. The Philadelphia Inquirer's Jeremy Roebuck and Andrew Seidman: Ken Smukler, "who has helped dozens of Democrats win public office over the last 30 years, was convicted of coordinating multiple unlawful contributions and falsifying finance reports for candidates in back-to-back congressional races. One of those campaigns - Brady's 2012 primary bid for reelection - ended with the abrupt withdrawal of his opponent after he was promised a $90,000 payoff, which jurors concluded Smukler helped to pay."

NEXT UP - Supporters of Democrat Amy McGrath, who lost to GOP Rep. Andy Barr in KY-06, are pushing her to run for governor. But there's concern among some Democrats that she may not qualify to run. The Louisville Courier Journal's Philip Bailey: "Democratic strategist Matt Erwin said McGrath's political future in the state is a bright one, but there is festering concern about whether she would qualify to be the nominee taking on Republican Gov. Matt Bevin next year. ... [T]he Kentucky Constitution says a person must be a resident of the state for at least six years before the gubernatorial election."

- Democrat Stacey Abrams, who lost the Georgia gubernatorial election, is considering running for office again. She told POLITICO's David Siders that she's "thinking about both" the 2020 Senate and 2022 gubernatorial elections.

MONEY MONEY MONEY - No Labels, a group that says it promotes bipartisanship, has sought funding for its super PAC from some big-name political donors from both sides of the political spectrum, including David Koch, Peter Thiel and Reid Hoffman. The Daily Beast's Sam Stein and Lachlan Markay: "Most of those targeted for financial support didn't end up donating to No Labels super PACs. ... The attempt to recruit these financiers was, according to sources, part of a concerted effort by No Labels to steer emphasis away from its nonprofit arm and toward campaign operations designed to boost preferred political candidates and target those deemed too extreme or impediments to its policy agenda."

RECOUNT WATCH - A recount in ME-02, which GOP Rep. Bruce Poliquin requested after losing to Democrat Jared Golden, will begin Thursday, via the Portland Press Herald's Kevin Miller.

THE EARLY STATES - Black women will be one of the most important voting blocs in the 2020 Democratic primary, which could help boost three potential candidates: Sens. Kamala Harris and Cory Booker and former Gov. Deval Patrick. BuzzFeed News' Ben Smith: "'The system favors minority candidates,' [political scientist Seth] McKee followed up in an email, noting also that in the Deep South, 'there is a vast gender gap favoring the participation of black women over black men."

- There's little consensus among Iowa Democrats about what issue a nominee should support. But party leaders want someone young. The Wall Street Journal's Reid Epstein and Janet Hook: "Of the 76 Democratic county party leaders who responded to the survey, 43 said they would prefer a young candidate. They said they want a fresh face and expressed interest in potential candidates who haven't run for president before."

CODA - STAT OF THE DAY: When George H.W. Bush ran for president in 1988, he spent $30.6 million ($65.5 million adjusted for inflation) compared to Trump's $398 million and Clinton's $768 million in 2016, per the National Institute on Money in Politics.
    
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