Subject: POLITICO Playbook: OK, now what: Gov’t funding edition
From: "Anna Palmer Jake Sherman Daniel Lippman" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 12 Dec 2018 05:18:08 -0600
List-Id: <1376319.xt.local>

Presented by the National Association of Manufacturers: Playbook is POLITICO's must-read briefing on what's driving the day                Dec 12, 2018 View in browser                   
 By Anna Palmer, Jake Sherman and Daniel Lippman 
         
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              DRIVING THE DAY      
ALERT ... POLITICO EUROPE: "Theresa May to face vote of no confidence," by Annabelle Dickson in London: "British Prime Minister Theresa May will face a vote of confidence in her leadership of the Conservative party Wednesday, something she vowed to contest 'with everything I've got.'

"The challenge is to May's leadership of her party and if she lost it would not automatically trigger an election, though if she is replaced as Tory leader her successor would take over as prime minister.

"The news came after May delayed a House of Commons vote on her Brexit deal, which had been due to take place Tuesday night. Instead, she spent Tuesday touring European capitals in a bid to secure assurances over the controversial Northern Irish backstop from other EU27 leaders in the hope of winning over more Tory MPs, many of whom have said they opposed the divorce deal the prime minister negotiated with Brussels.

"Speaking outside No. 10 Downing Street, May warned a change of leadership now would 'create uncertainty when we can least afford it' and said any new prime minister would be forced to extend the Article 50 Brexit negotiating period or revoke it all together." POLITICO Europe

Happy Wednesday morning. WHAT NEEDS TO HAPPEN NOW ON GOVERNMENT FUNDING ... SO NOW THAT yesterday's show is out of the system, here's what the next few days might look like:

-- THE HOUSE is planning -- at the moment -- to take up a $5 billion wall funding bill. GOP leadership believes they'll be able to get 218 on their own -- Democrats are obviously not going to chip in to pass this. Republicans say rebuking NANCY PELOSI -- who said the House can't pass it -- is enough to snap their crowd into action. We are a bit more skeptical they'll be able to get this through. For example: 44 LAWMAKERS were out yesterday. Twenty of them are people who will not be returning next Congress. (Imagine the Republicans ending their eight-year majority by failing to pass this bill.)

-- IF THE HOUSE SOMEHOW manages to pass it, THE SENATE will then fail to get 60 votes on that bill, which could -- in theory -- reset this process by the end of this week. 

WE'RE A FEW FITS AND STARTS away from this process getting real. 

A SHUTDOWN REMAINS VERY LIKELY. It just doesn't seem like a deal is in the works, or close to being thought about. And that brings us to this: How can Congress get out of this mess?

... THE BASIC OFF-RAMP ... It doesn't seem as if the president is interested in any deal, and Democrats made clear their position yesterday. So the way out is: PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP folds and allows Congress to pass a stopgap with the current border security funding structure, which he has already touted as being effective. He could probably extract some concessions around the edges to help him sell it to himself and his base. He'll blame Democrats and he could say he's going to come back next year with a request for more border money.

-- CAN CONGRESS KEEP GOVERNMENT CLOSED FOR NEARLY TWO WEEKS? There are 13 days between the funding deadline and when Democrats take over the House. PELOSI could begin the 116th Congress by passing a stopgap to end a partial shutdown. At that point, it would fly through the Senate and Trump would have to sign it. There are plenty of Democrats and Republican who think this is the most likely scenario at this moment.

-- FOR THE RECORD ... RACHAEL BADE: "Pelosi privately disses Trump's manhood after White House meeting"

TRUMP: DISEASE COMING INTO THE U.S. ... Yesterday afternoon, per pooler Melissa Quinn of the Washington Examiner: "One of the problems that people don't talk about -- you have a tremendous medical problem coming into the country. Communicable disease, tremendous problems. People don't like to talk about it. I don't like talking about it, but these are the difficulties of what [Democrats] want to do."

-- FACT CHECK, via NBC. 

ONE MORE MEETING DETAIL ... L.A. TIMES' JEN HABERKORN: "One administration official, speaking on the condition of anonymity, said Trump appeared upset after leaving the meeting, flicking a folder and sending its papers flying out. Later in the day, Trump described the meeting with Democrats as 'very friendly' and said he didn't mind 'owning that issue.'" LAT

-- PER GABBY ORR: "Eric Bolling has a one-on-one interview with President Trump at the White House [on Wednesday]. The interview will air [this] evening across Sinclair affiliates, and some segments will be featured on The BlazeTV starting Thursday."

THIS WILL CAUSE DRAMA TODAY ... THE FARM BILL has to clear a procedural hurdle today, which includes unrelated language on U.S. involvement in Yemen. Detail: "Section 2 provides the provisions of section 7 of the War Powers Resolution (50 U.S.C. 1546) shall not apply during the remainder of the One Hundred Fifteenth Congress to a concurrent resolution introduced pursuant to section 5 of the War Powers Resolution (50 U.S.C. 1544) with respect to Yemen."
       
A message from the National Association of Manufacturers:
 
End the HIT now! Americans already struggle with rising health care costs. Congress must protect Americans from the Health Insurance Tax (HIT), the Medical Device Tax and the "Cadillac" Tax. After 2019, the HIT will impact approximately 140 million Americans, increasing health care costs for manufacturers and workers. http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=175e68870b70b540f2fbd96cb6a76b96e3430be4cbe57a6e8331c0652cc7a6367eabc63b27c8d6f30ce53a5725f6af0d
         
HUGE NEWS ... HEATHER CAYGLE, RACHAEL BADE and JOHN BRESNAHAN: "Pelosi on verge of deal with rebels to reclaim speakership": "The California Democrat and some of her fiercest party critics have tentatively agreed to limit her speakership to four years at most, these sources said. In return, several lawmakers who had vowed publicly to vote against Pelosi on the House floor in a critical Jan. 3 roll call will instead back her ascent to the position she held eight years ago. ... 

"Under the tentative terms of the deal, the top Democratic leaders would be allowed to serve for only three terms. If any leader wanted to exceed that limit by one term, he or she would need a two-thirds majority in the Democratic Caucus. They currently need only a simple majority to do so. After this time frame, the lawmaker would need to run for another position or vacate leadership altogether.

"Most important, Pelosi's agreement with rebels, the deal would be retroactive. That means Pelosi, House Minority Whip Steny Hoyer (D-Md.) and Assistant Democratic Leader Jim Clyburn (D-S.C.) would already be entering their third term in leadership during the next Congress. They would need two-thirds approval from the caucus to serve beyond 2020 - and the longest they could remain in place in their current jobs is four years." POLITICO

-- IT WAS AMAZING to see Pelosi handle this episode. She never let anyone see her sweat -- if she ever did anyway -- and it forced her detractors to scramble and launch into negotiations. 

-- A PELOSI AIDE: "There are various conversations going on about a path forward. Progress has been made and the conversations are constructive because all involved care about the institution of the House of Representatives."

REUTERS INTERVIEWS POTUS ... "Trump says would intervene in arrest of Chinese executive," by Steve Holland, Jeff Mason and Roberta Rampton: "'If I think it's good for the country, if I think it's good for what will be certainly the largest trade deal ever made - which is a very important thing - what's good for national security - I would certainly intervene if I thought it was necessary,' Trump said in a wide-ranging interview with Reuters in the Oval Office." Reuters

EEK ... "AP: Ivanka, Kushner could profit from tax break they pushed," by Stephen Braun, Jeff Horwitz and Bernard Condon: "The Opportunity Zone program promoted by Ivanka Trump and her husband Jared Kushner - both senior White House advisers - could ... benefit them financially, an Associated Press investigation found. ... 

"Trump and Kushner jointly own a big stake in a real estate investment firm, Cadre, that recently announced it is launching a series of Opportunity Zone funds that seek to build major projects under the program from Miami to Los Angeles. Separately, the couple owns interests in at least 13 properties held by Kushner's family firm that could qualify for the tax breaks because they are in Opportunity Zones in New Jersey, New York and Maryland - all of which, a study found, were already coming back." AP

CHIEF OF STAFF TEA LEAF READING? ... U.S. AMBASSADOR TO GERMANY RIC GRENELL was at a White House Christmas party yesterday, when TRUMP noted on several occasions that Grenell was in the crowd. AXIOS' JONATHAN SWAN has noted in the past that Trump is taken with Grenell's looks.

SPOTTED at Google's holiday party last night: Former Rep. Blake Farenthold. Farenthold resigned from Congress after POLITICO reported he settled a sexual harassment claim with government money.

SPOTTED: Sens. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska), Susan Collins (R-Maine), Angus King (I-Maine) and Rob Portman (R-Ohio) walking out of a back-room dinner with Bill Gates at the Italian restaurant Lavagna last night in Eastern Market ... Justice Elena Kagan dining at the Dabney last night ... Tiffany Trump last night at the Trump Hotel.
 
THE NEXT A.G. -- "Trump has blasted Mueller's team for political donations. But attorney general nominee William P. Barr has given more than $500,000," by WaPo's Shawn Boburg and Anu Narayanswamy: "President Trump has repeatedly derided prosecutors investigating potential coordination between his presidential campaign and Russia as 'angry Democrats,' pointing to their past political donations as proof of bias.
 
"But William P. Barr, Trump's nominee to lead the Justice Department and oversee the Russia investigation, would be by far the most prolific political donor to step into the country's top law enforcement post in at least a quarter-century, according to a Washington Post analysis. 

"Barr has donated more than $567,000 in the past two decades, nearly all to GOP candidates and groups, federal records show. His wife, Christine Barr, gave more than $220,000 over that time, records show. Before he was nominated to be attorney general, Barr criticized past donations by prosecutors working for special counsel Robert S. Mueller III." WaPo
       
A message from the National Association of Manufacturers:
 
End the HIT now! Americans already struggle with rising health care costs. Congress must protect Americans from the Health Insurance Tax (HIT), the Medical Device Tax and the "Cadillac" Tax. After 2019, the HIT will impact approximately 140 million Americans, increasing health care costs for manufacturers and workers. http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=175e68870b70b540a3ffc63df7cc5bcb0ab77588aef2084a4bd8aafa714bb605b016d45563aa6549854d43116a8622e4
         
BUZZ: AP'S ELANA SCHOR will be on "Jeopardy!" tonight!

TRUMP'S WEDNESDAY ... Just one event: A 2 p.m. "signing event for an Executive Order establishing the White House Opportunity and Revitalization Council."
                 PLAYBOOK READS         

PHOTO DU JOUR: Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and House Democratic leader Nancy Pelosi stand outside the West Wing after a contentious meeting Tuesday with President Donald Trump. | Andrew Harnik/AP Photo
   
FOR YOUR RADAR -- "French police hunt Strasbourg Christmas market attacker," by Reuters' Gilbert Reilhac and Christian Hartmann in Strasbourg: "Security forces were searching across northeastern France on Wednesday for a gunman who killed two people and wounded 12 others at a Christmas market in the eastern city of Strasbourg. France raised its security threat to the highest alert level, strengthened border controls and asked people around Strasbourg to stay put as and police searched for the suspect." Reuters

NATASHA KORECKI: "Sprawling 2020 field creates wild early-state scramble"

         
THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION -- "Trump loyalist at VA forced out after collecting pay but doing little work," by WaPo's Lisa Rein and Josh Dawsey: "The Trump administration has forced out a senior White House political appointee at the Department of Veterans Affairs who spent months on the federal payroll doing little to no work. 

"Peter O'Rourke's departure marks an unceremonious fall for a Trump loyalist once seen as a rising star at VA, where he nonetheless had a rocky tenure, first leading a high-profile office handling whistleblower complaints, next as chief of staff and then, for two months, as the agency's acting secretary. 

"Since August he has held the nebulous role of senior adviser, with an uncertain portfolio and a senior executive salary as high as $161,000. VA Secretary Robert Wilkie asked for his resignation Friday, O'Rourke said. ... Asked why he was getting paid not to work, O'Rourke said he was 'available for anything the secretary asked me to do" and acknowledged that 'there were times I didn't have a lot to do.' ... 'I don't think he has any actual responsibilities at work,' one senior administration official said of O'Rourke days before he left." WaPo

JOSH GERSTEIN: "Senate Intelligence Chairman Richard Burr (R-N.C.), Vice Chairman Mark Warner (D-Va.) and former Chairman Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.) are encouraging a federal judge not to put the committee's former security director, James Wolfe, behind bars for a series of false statements he admitted giving to the FBI during the leak investigation.

"'Jim has already lost much through these events, to include his career and reputation, and we do not believe there is any public utility in depriving him of his freedom,' Burr, Warner and Feinstein wrote in a letter Wolfe's defense attorneys submitted Tuesday to U.S. District Court Judge Ketanji Brown Jackson." POLITICO

VALLEY TALK -- FUTURECAST: "Facebook Filed A Patent To Calculate Your Future Location," by BuzzFeed's Nicole Nguyen: "Facebook has filed several patent applications with the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office for technology that uses your location data to predict where you're going and when you're going to be offline. ... 

"A May 30, 2017, Facebook application titled 'Offline Trajectories' describes a method to predict where you'll go next based on your location data. The technology described in the patent would calculate a 'transition probability based at least in part on previously logged location data associated with a plurality of users who were at the current location.' In other words, the technology could also use the data of other people you know, as well as that of strangers, to make predictions." BuzzFeed
                 PLAYBOOKERS      
SPOTTED at Google's "20 Years of Big Moments" holiday party at the Anthem last night: Reps. Darrell Issa (R-Calif.) and Jimmy Gomez (D-Calif.), Liz Johnson, Alex Skatell, Christina Sevilla, Allie Brandenburger, Bennett Richardson, Francesca Chambers and Michael Moroney, Charmaine and Jack Yoest, Hannah Yoest, Juana Summers, Sarah Badawi, Becca Glover, Caitlin Carroll, Kelley Hudak, Becca Rutkoff, Tim Cameron, Steve Johnston, Jonathan Kott, Annie Clark, Jeff Zeleny, Sam Feist, Lauren Pratapas, Craig Gordon, Jim Acosta and Liz Landers, Zeke Miller, Phil Rucker, Meridith McGraw and Josh Dawsey. 

OUT AND ABOUT ... A tipster sends in: The "VP hosted most of the 168 RNC members at his official residence [last night]. Notables included RNC chairman Ronna McDaniel and RNC co-chairman Bob Paduchik but also mega-donor Todd Ricketts. Pence went out of his way to thank the RNC members and ask for their support the next two years ... Guests drank a white and red wine and ate from a bottomless buffet of seared tuna, beef, and other food plus countless types of Christmas cookies and dessert. Each RNC member and their spouse or partner got a picture with VP and Mrs. Pence." Pic

TRANSITION -- Michael Steel has been promoted to partner at Hamilton Place Strategies. He most recently has been managing director at the firm.

BIRTHWEEK (was yesterday): POLITICO Europe's Lili Bayer and Philip Kaleta

BIRTHDAY OF THE DAY: Jesse Ferguson, a Democratic strategist and Hillary alum, is 38. A fun fact about Jesse: "I think it's safe to say that I'm pretty partisan Democrat having run the DCCC IE and worked for Hillary Clinton, etc. That all said, I started out thinking I was a Republican. (Gasp.) I'm not sure if it was fueled by my Rockefeller Republican grandfather in upstate New York who once took on Joseph McCarthy in a libel suit or my moderate Republican father. The last Republican event I attended was for 'Maverick' John McCain's 2000 primary for President. 

"I was there in Virginia Beach when he gave a speech blasting Pat Robertson and Jerry Falwell as 'Agents of Intolerance.' I still gravitate towards that type of maverick, straight-talking type of politics, but not the ideology of the Trump Republican Party. Over the years, I've certainly changed some and the GOP has changed bigly." Playbook Plus Q&A

BIRTHDAYS: Lanny Davis is 73 ... Targeted Victory's David Pasch is 3-0 (hat tips: Brian Jack and Zac Moffatt) ... Maggie Rodriguez ... Broderick Johnson, Bryan Cave partner, University of Michigan law school adjunct and Obama alum (h/t Jon Haber) ... Portuguese President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa is 7-0 ... Jeff Goldstein (h/t Katie Glueck) ... POLITICO's Taylor Miller Thomas ... Andrew Platt ... Katy Bachman ... Becky Perlow ... Nora Boustany ... Peter Fenn ... former Rep. Joe Sestak (D-Pa.) is 67 ... former Rep. Steve Kagen (D-Wis.) is 69 ... AP science writer Seth Borenstein ... Bret Wincup ... Allan Karl (h/t brother Jonathan) ... Jeff Burton is 44 ... Liz Brim is 3-0 ... Alexander Levine
 ... Jenna Kruse, VP of research at EMILY's List ... BBC's Reeta Chakrabarti ... Christian Martinez, war room deputy director at America Rising ...

... Sarah Horowitz of Lewis Global Communications ... POLITICO Europe's Esther King ... Nick Pearson of Google (h/t Riva Sciuto) ... David Mays ... Rebecca Neale ... Jamie Brown Hantman ... Danny Russel ... Dwight Fettig ... Jen Richer ... Kartik Das (h/t Nihal Krishan) ... Bob Wood ... Ed Espinoza ... Caroline Whitehouse ... Carolyn Castore ... Dawn Laguens ... Tina Henry ... Tanner Hishta ... Angela Hernandez ... Kelly O'Brien ... Maren Hesla ... Peter Bock ... Diane Welsh ... David Sandretti ... Dan Schooff ... Madeline Sasse ... Tony Winnicker (h/ts Teresa Vilmain)
       
A message from the National Association of Manufacturers:
 
Manufacturers have a message for Congress: deal with the returning harmful taxes that raise health care costs for employers and workers. The Health Insurance Tax (HIT) is an unfair and unneeded sales tax on the health care of American families, including American manufacturing workers. The HIT is delayed for 2019, but action is needed now to ensure families don't get saddled with hundreds of dollars of added health care costs in 2020 and beyond. On average, it costs families $500 a year and individuals $200 to $300. The tax primarily hits small businesses' employees and their dependents, Medicare beneficiaries and those buying individual plans. Instead of making life harder for these 140
 million Americans, Congress should act now to ensure Americans have relief from the HIT and that small businesses, including manufacturers, can continue providing quality health care coverage for their employees. Learn more about why manufacturers oppose the HIT at http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=175e68870b70b5407feab5667e7ecf382f136d049ad6626c2cecc3000b8d61eab9c531bd5d75df640221e70f6126d550
                        
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