Subject: POLITICO Playbook: Pelosi all but locks up the speakership
From: "Anna Palmer Jake Sherman Daniel Lippman" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 13 Dec 2018 05:12:27 -0600
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Presented by the National Association of Manufacturers: Playbook is POLITICO's must-read briefing on what's driving the day                Dec 13, 2018 View in browser                   
 By Anna Palmer, Jake Sherman and Daniel Lippman 
         
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              DRIVING THE DAY      
TWENTY-FOUR DAYS AGO, 16 Democrats -- 14 men and two women -- wrote a letter to their Democratic colleagues saying that they were "committed to voting for new leadership in both our Caucus meeting and on the House Floor."

LESS THAN ONE MONTH LATER, NANCY PELOSI flipped eight of them -- plus one more who signed on later -- and that put her on the brink of winning the speakership. Half of the people who vowed to never support Nancy Pelosi are now supporting her.

THE FLIPPERS: Bill Foster (Ill.), Brian Higgins (N.Y.), Seth Moulton (Mass.), Stephen Lynch (Mass.), Ed Perlmutter (Colo.), Filemon Vela (Texas), Linda S&aacute;nchez (Calif.), Tim Ryan (Ohio) and Gil Cisneros (Calif.).

THE COST: Support for term limits for the three senior members of Democratic leadership: Pelosi, 79-year-old Steny Hoyer of Maryland and 78-year-old Jim Clyburn of South Carolina. If the proposal passes -- it will come up for discussion and a vote by Feb. 15 -- Pelosi, Hoyer and Clyburn can serve in leadership only until the beginning of 2021. They could serve one more term -- until the beginning of 2023 -- if they are able to get two-thirds support of the caucus. Pelosi will be 82 at the beginning of 2023.

PELOSI SAID she was "comfortable with the proposal and it is my intention to abide by it whether it passes or not." Pelosi's full statement

THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT CHANCE that this proposal will not pass. HOYER has said he isn't for it, as have some members of the Congressional Black Caucus. BUT ... There are 63 freshmen, many of whom would like to see more churn atop the caucus.

BOTTOM LINE: Pelosi said over the summer she was going to be a transitional leader. She filled up her leadership team with new people. This now puts some weight behind that. 

Good Thursday morning. ON THE SHUTDOWN ... HOUSE REPUBLICANS are torn about whether to vote on the $5 billion border wall bill. They are afraid it might fail.

REPUBLICANS DITCH TRUMP ON HIS SHUTDOWN ... WAPO'S ERICA WERNER, SEAN SULLIVAN and SEUNG MIN KIM: "'I don't understand the strategy, but maybe he's figured it out and he'll tell us in due course,' said John Cornyn (Tex.), the No. 2 Senate Republican. 'But I don't understand it.' ... 

"[J]ohn Thune (S.D.), the third-ranking GOP senator, said there was no scenario under which he would be proud to shut down the government. 'It would not be good,' Thune said.

"Pressed on whether Trump's comments were helpful to the negotiations, Thune answered obliquely. 'The president has his own style and way of negotiating,' he said. 'The only thing I would say is, it's just simple math - that you've to got to get 60 votes in the Senate, and that's going to require Democrats.' ... 

"House GOP leaders claimed Wednesday to have the votes [to pass $5 billion in wall funding], but some questioned the wisdom of holding a vote that would face certain rejection in the Senate. And the risky proposition would come in the waning days of a lame-duck session, when it could be difficult to corral scores of defeated and retiring House Republicans who have been showing up only intermittently to vote.

"'Do we have the votes for a measure that includes $5 billion for the wall? Yes,' said Rep. Patrick T. McHenry (N.C.), a member of the House GOP leadership. 'The question of whether to do it is a question of wisdom and strategy and tactics, and it's highly debatable about whether that's the right move.'" WaPo

-- SARAH FERRIS and JOHN BRESNAHAN: "GOP leaders still lack funding plan as shutdown looms": "The House is now poised to leave town Thursday for five days without offering a clue to how it would avoid a crippling funding lapse for roughly a dozen agencies. ... Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) has cautioned members that they may need to come back Monday and Tuesday for a last-minute session on funding bills. But even Rep. Rodney Frelinghuysen of New Jersey, the House GOP's spending chief, said Wednesday he was in the dark." POLITICO

WAPO'S PAUL KANE: "Senators in both parties are finding ways to push McConnell and challenge Trump": "In its final days in session, the Senate has shaken off some parliamentary and legislative rust to force Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell into policy debates that he would have preferred to brush aside.

"Some of these steps mark a turn in the Senate's willingness to stand up to President Trump - at least on foreign policy matters - and some are important but symbolic gestures by frustrated senators. Another could deliver Trump a key domestic policy win on bipartisan sentencing restructuring.

"Regardless of the motives, rank-and-file senators have employed a mix of unique techniques, old-fashioned threats and insider persuasion to spark debates that had been blocked or delayed. It has left McConnell (R-Ky.) with a seemingly looser hold on power, which could translate into more opportunities next year for Democrats and any GOP allies willing to oppose Trump." WaPo
       
A message from the National Association of Manufacturers:
 
End the HIT now! Americans already struggle with rising health care costs. Congress must protect Americans from the Health Insurance Tax (HIT), the Medical Device Tax and the "Cadillac" Tax. After 2019, the HIT will impact approximately 140 million Americans, increasing health care costs for manufacturers and workers. http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=919d375f39d6cb9a7e4a0206a563100085bc1a2c476ba4e0abf03594e2311515a8c030d9f98ca1be6f813a6a2146d366
         
BURGESS EVERETT: "Is Tom Cotton's winning streak about to end?"

THE COS SWEEPSTAKES -- ANDREW RESTUCCIA and DANIEL LIPPMAN: "Meadows out of the running to be Trump's chief of staff"

APPLE BUILDING IN AUSTIN ... WSJ: "Apple Inc. said on Thursday it plans to invest $1 billion to build a new campus in Austin, Texas, near its existing facilities.

"The tech giant, based in Cupertino, Calif., said it would open new offices in Seattle, San Diego and Culver City, Calif.-adding more than 1,000 employees in each place. It also plans to add hundreds of jobs in Pittsburgh, New York, Boulder, Colo., Boston and Portland, Ore., over the next three years.

"In Austin, where the iPhone maker already employs more than 6,000 people, the new 133-acre campus will initially accommodate 5,000 additional employees, with the capacity to grow to 15,000, with new jobs covering engineering, research and development, operations, finance, sales and customer support." WSJ

DRAIN THE SWAMP! -- "Sen. James Inhofe Bought Defense Stock Days After Pushing For Record Pentagon Spending-Then Dumped It When Asked About It," by The Daily Beast's Lachlan Markay: "Just days after signaling his support for unprecedented levels of U.S. defense spending, Sen. James Inhofe (R-Okla.), the chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee, reported purchasing tens of thousands of dollars of stock in one of the nation's top defense contractors. After The Daily Beast asked about the purchase, Inhofe's office said the senator had contacted his financial adviser to cancel the transaction and instructed him to avoid defense and aerospace purchases going forward." Daily Beast

FLOTUS SPEAKS -- SEAN HANNITY interviewed FIRST LADY MELANIA TRUMP on FOX NEWS: HANNITY: "Do you often weigh in on the issues of the day with the president? I know you do watch a lot of news. You're very aware of what's going on. What do you think in terms of, what insight could you give us? Maybe a better way to ask it is to how when you feel strongly about something that you would relay that to him?"

MELANIA TRUMP: "I wish to have to time to watch more news but I don't. I'm very busy with my office and traveling and doing my work. Yes, I watch you and I sometimes also tape the shows and if I have the time I watch it, but I know exactly what's going on. I follow what's going on and I give my husband advice and my honest opinion, and sometimes he listens and sometimes he doesn't." 11-min. video

RUDY INC. -- "While Working for Trump, Giuliani Courts Business Abroad," by NYT's Ken Vogel: "The special counsel's investigation was grinding relentlessly onward, with President Trump's former national security adviser pleading for leniency in his case and his former fixer about to be sentenced for his crimes. But Mr. Trump's personal lawyer, Rudolph W. Giuliani, was in Manama, Bahrain, on Tuesday, meeting with the king and the interior minister of an important United States ally in the Middle East. 

"The government-run Bahrain News Agency featured a photo of Mr. Giuliani meeting in a royal palace with King Hamad bin Isa al-Khalifa. The story said the king discussed 'Bahraini-U.S. relations' with Mr. Giuliani, who was described as leading a 'high-level U.S. delegation.' But Mr. Giuliani was not in Bahrain, a country with a record of human rights abuses, on official business. 

"He was there to seek a lucrative security consulting contract with the government. The trip was part of a concerted push Mr. Giuliani has undertaken in the last few weeks to win business from governments around the world - including in Africa and South America - for a firm he owns called Giuliani Security and Safety. ... 'I'm probably the most ethical person you ever met,' he said." NYT

THE INVESTIGATIONS -- DARREN SAMUELSOHN: "A 'loud gong': National Enquirer's surprise deal could imperil Trump": "The National Enquirer's parent company has agreed to tell prosecutors everything it knows about Donald Trump - and it might know a lot. In a court document released Wednesday, the tabloid publisher, American Media Inc., admitted to coordinating a hush-money payment with Trump's 2016 campaign, reversing two years of denials. 

"The confession came as part of an immunity agreement with the U.S. attorney's office in New York, made public shortly after Trump's former lawyer, Michael Cohen, was sentenced to three years in prison over charges of tax fraud, campaign finance violations and lying to Congress.

"But the disclosure might just be scratching the surface. Based on court documents and a plethora of media reports, Trump and his aides have worked for years with the tabloid to kill incriminating stories. AMI's CEO David Pecker also had a decades-long copacetic friendship with Trump." POLITICO

-- JUST POSTED: "Get Ready for Mueller's Phase Two: The Middle East Connection," by The Daily Beast's Erin Banco: "In court filings that are set to drop in early 2019, prosecutors will begin to unveil Middle Eastern countries' attempts to influence American politics, three sources familiar with this side of the probe told The Daily Beast. In other words, the so-called 'Russia investigation' is set to go global. ...

"Now, according to those same sources, the Special Counsel's Office is ready to outline what cooperating witnesses have told them about foreigners' plans to help Trump win the presidency. Two sources with knowledge of the probe said Mueller's team has for months discussed the possibility of issuing new charges on this side of the investigation." Daily Beast
       
A message from the National Association of Manufacturers:
 
End the HIT now! Americans already struggle with rising health care costs. Congress must protect Americans from the Health Insurance Tax (HIT), the Medical Device Tax and the "Cadillac" Tax. After 2019, the HIT will impact approximately 140 million Americans, increasing health care costs for manufacturers and workers. http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=919d375f39d6cb9a0165eda8bb0da16202addace301316101a15f75d597cd378d3617d2f2550f633b3b09a878140b714
         
ICYMI ... MICHAEL AVENATTI FIGHT PAC has just $14,753 on hand after spending $82,401 in October and November. ARI EMANUEL gave him $1,000.

ELANA SCHOR WON JEOPARDY!!! ... The AP reporter -- until recently a POLITICO -- won. Elana's epic wink

TRUMP'S THURSDAY -- The president is meeting with Secretary of State Mike Pompeo at 11:45 a.m. in the Oval Office. Trump will meet with governors-elect at 2 p.m. in the Cabinet Room. He and first lady Melania Trump will attend a Christmas reception at 5:15 p.m. and 8:30 p.m. 
                 PLAYBOOK READS         

PHOTO DU JOUR: President Donald Trump signs an executive order Wednesday creating a new council to oversee an opportunity zones program. | Alex Wong/Getty Images
   
IN NORTH CAROLINA -- "North Carolina Legislature Calls for New Primary if New Election Is Held in Disputed District," by NYT's Timothy Williams in Lumberton, N.C., and Alan Blinder in Atlanta: "The North Carolina Legislature on Wednesday approved a bill requiring new primary elections if the state elections board calls for a second vote of a congressional election. The measure opens the door for Republicans to consider replacing Mark Harris, their candidate in the disputed race in the Ninth Congressional District. 

"The bill, backed by substantial majorities among both parties, could eventually place Republicans in the awkward position of choosing whether to stick with Mr. Harris, who appeared to have narrowly won a primary and general election - both now buffeted by allegations of irregularities including tainted absentee ballots - or replace him on the ballot." NYT

2020 WATCH -- "Tom Steyer Seeks Aides for Possible 2020 Run - in Anonymous LinkedIn Ad," by NYT's Shane Goldmacher: "Tom Steyer, the Democratic billionaire who has paid for television ads calling for the impeachment of President Trump, is also considering a run for president himself. And he is taking a novel approach to staffing up a potential campaign for 2020: An anonymous LinkedIn page advertising 'state director' jobs in three of the first four states that will kick off the nominating contest. ... 

"Nowhere is Mr. Steyer's name mentioned in the posting. But the language and structure matches verbatim those of job opportunities listed with one of Mr. Steyer's other political efforts, NextGen America. Both seek, for instance, 'prior training in anti-oppression, equity and inclusion organizing.'" NYT

VALLEY TALK -- "Google CEO Sundar Pichai: Fears about artificial intelligence are 'very legitimate,' he says in Post interview," by WaPo's Tony Romm, Drew Harwell and Craig Timberg: "Google chief executive Sundar Pichai, head of one of the world's leading artificial intelligence companies, said in an interview this week that concerns about harmful applications of the technology are 'very legitimate' - but the tech industry should be trusted to responsibly regulate its use." WaPo

         
FOR YOUR RADAR -- "Southern Baptist Seminary Acknowledges Past Ties to White Supremacy," by WSJ's Ian Lovett: "Southern Baptist Theological Seminary, one of oldest and most influential evangelical Christian seminaries in the U.S., released a report Wednesday detailing the school's extensive historical ties to slavery, the Confederacy and white supremacy. The report is the most thorough investigation yet of how white supremacist ideology helped shape the Southern Baptist Convention and, by extension, evangelical Christianity in America.

"Among the report's findings are that all four founders of Southern Seminary, which was established in 1859, owned slaves and early faculty and trustees defended the practice as 'righteous'; during the Civil War, the seminary supported the Confederacy; and, once the War was over, the seminary opposed racial equality well into the 20th century. School officials said they believed it was the first time a U.S. seminary had made such an investigation into its past." WSJ

MEDIAWATCH -- "Tribune, Tronc And Beyond: A Slur, A Secret Payout And A Looming Sale," by NPR's David Folkenflik: "Several months after taking control of the troubled Tribune Publishing Co. in 2016, Chicago investor Michael Ferro convened a session of corporate leaders from within his own news empire, including chief news executives from such storied papers as the Los Angeles Times, the Chicago Tribune and The Baltimore Sun. ... At the dinner, as at other moments, [Michael] Ferro railed against those who he felt were impeding him - including perceived rivals and competitors.

"Among them: the Southern California billionaire and civic leader Eli Broad, whom Ferro called part of a 'Jewish cabal' that ran Los Angeles. This account of the evening is based on interviews with two attendees who separately say they heard Ferro make those remarks. A spokesman for Ferro denied the incident occurred and called the claim 'reckless allegations.' 

"Early this year, however, Tribune Publishing made the first in a series of secret payments to total more than $2.5 million to avert a threatened lawsuit filed by a fired newspaper executive [Davan Maharaj], according to three people with knowledge of the deal. That had the effect of keeping Ferro's anti-Semitic slur out of the public spotlight. ... At moments of frustration, Ferro also urged his editors to devote negative coverage to people he saw as obstacles in business, including competitors and even fellow investors, according to four former colleagues who say they witnessed him do so." NPR
                 PLAYBOOKERS      
SPOTTED: Sen. Rob Portman (R-Ohio) and Ed Gillespie at dinner at Oyamel last night.

SPOTTED in the Trump hotel lobby last night: Rick Santorum and his longtime consultant Jessica Colon, Matt Mackowiak, Brad Parscale, Jason Osborne, Dennis Lennox, Matt Jones, Oklahoma Republican Chair Pam Pollard and Steve Curry.

HOLIDAY PARTY CIRCUIT -- SPOTTED at the MPAA holiday party last night at the St. Regis hosted by Charles Rivkin: the ambassadors of Jordan, Monaco, Switzerland and Azerbaijan, Sen. Roy Blunt (R-Mo.), Rep. Jimmy Panetta (D-Calif.), Rep. Jim Costa (D-Calif.), Marie Royce and Rep. Ed Royce (R-Calif.), Rep. Mark Sanford (R-S.C.), Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-Fla.), Bret and Amy Baier, Bob Barnett and Rita Braver, Kathleen Biden, Lyndon Boozer, Kevin Chaffee, Steve Clemons, Nelson Cunningham, Gloria Dittus, Paula Dobriansky, Robert Duvall and Luciana Pedraza, Susan Eisenhower, Eric Fanning, Evelyn Farkas, Anthony Fauci, Mandy Grunwald, Chris Ortman, Shane Harris ...

... Natalie Jones, Jamie Kirchick, Elise Labott, Ryan Lizza and Olivia Nuzzi, Jonathan Martin and Betsy Fischer Martin, Francesca Craig, Stuart Holliday, Nick Johnston, Bernadette Meehan and Evan Medeiros, Tara Palmeri, Josh Dawsey, Daniel Poneman, Sally Quinn, Doug and Heidi Rediker, Matt Rivera and Kasie Hunt, Jonathan Silver and Melissa Moss, Alex Slater, Anne Marie Slaughter, Patrick Steel and Lee Satterfield, Tammy Haddad, Ken Weinstein, Ryan Williams and Margaret Carlson.

-- SPOTTED at the 4th Annual "Cocktails and Candy Canes" holiday event hosted by the Senate Press Secretaries Association and National Confectioners Association at Kirwan's on the Wharf: Chris Gindlesperger, Megan Whittemore and Gary Nuzzi, Michael Inacay, Kristin Lynch, J.P. Freire, Jennifer Shutt, Matt Wolking, Caroline Vanvick, Brian Walsh, Paul Kane, Ali Rogin, Eli Yokley, Niels Lesniewski, Nihal Krishan, Al Weaver, Tamar Hallerman, Tony Sayegh, Alex Thompson and Garrett Haake.

BIRTHDAY OF THE DAY: Mo Elleithee, executive director of Georgetown University's Institute of Politics and Public Service at the McCourt School and a Fox News contributor, is 46. How he got his start in politics: "I was politically interested in high school, but it wasn't until I was a student at Georgetown during Bill Clinton's 1992 campaign that I became politically inspired. But I still didn't think of it as a career. Then, right out of college, I took a job as a paralegal at a Wall Street law firm while waiting to take the Foreign Service exam. I hated every single minute of it. 

"After one particularly terrible day at the office, I came home, popped open a beer, made a sandwich and turned on the TV. It was Election Day 1994, and I watched as my party got decimated. When I saw political heroes of mine like Mario Cuomo and Ann Richards lose, I said to myself, 'This is what I need to do with my life.' Six weeks later I was back in D.C., enrolled in the political management master's program at GW, and on my way to my first campaign job in 1996." Playbook Plus Q&A

BIRTHDAYS: Todd S. Purdum ... Interior's Tara Rigler (hat tip: Lauren Ehrsam) ... Michael D. Smith, executive director of the My Brother's Keeper Alliance and youth opportunities programs at the Obama Foundation ... Jeffrey Schneider, principal at The Lead PR ... former Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack, now president and CEO of the U.S. Dairy Export Council, is 68 ... Trish Regan, host of "Trish Regan Primetime" on Fox Business Network ... Ben Bernanke is 65 ... former Secretary of State George Shultz is 98 ... Herman Cain is 73 ... Allan Blutstein, SVP at Definers Public Affairs, is 51 ... Brian Baenig, president of the U.S. Beet Sugar Association ... Kelly Gleeson ... NBC's Haley Talbot
 ... Amy Mitchell ... Stephenie Foster (h/t Jon Haber) ... 

... Rep. Anna Eshoo (D-Calif.) is 76 ... Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-Md.) is 56 ... Rep. Donald Norcross (D-N.J.) is 6-0 ... DoD's Alexandra Seymour ... Treasury's David F. Eisner ... Stephanie Valdes ... Nancy Fitzpatrick ... India Goodman ... Penguin Random House's Rebecca Welbourn ... Morgan Williams ... Riva Sciuto, manager of global comms and public affairs at Google ... Bharat Krishnan ... Rajeev Chopra ... Nick Payton ... Education Dept. alum Gillum Ferguson ... Google's Conor Chrisom ... Peter Ogburn is 39 ... Karen Hicks ... Joe Rozek ... Martin Whitmer ... William Todd ... Ruth Wedgwood ... Viviana Hurtado ... Elizabeth Dial Pinkerton ... Leighann Lenti ... Jill Latham ... Vera Jordan
 ... Alec Zender ... George Fishman ... Alan Julson (h/t Teresa Vilmain)
       
A message from the National Association of Manufacturers:
 
Manufacturers have a message for Congress: deal with the returning harmful taxes that raise health care costs for employers and workers. The Health Insurance Tax (HIT) is an unfair and unneeded sales tax on the health care of American families, including American manufacturing workers. The HIT is delayed for 2019, but action is needed now to ensure families don't get saddled with hundreds of dollars of added health care costs in 2020 and beyond. On average, it costs families $500 a year and individuals $200 to $300. The tax primarily hits small businesses' employees and their dependents, Medicare beneficiaries and those buying individual plans. Instead of making life harder for these 140
 million Americans, Congress should act now to ensure Americans have relief from the HIT and that small businesses, including manufacturers, can continue providing quality health care coverage for their employees. Learn more about why manufacturers oppose the HIT at http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=919d375f39d6cb9aa92424213e96fb3653dd81ba47b84982a248f950c120059608ab987be73810a7aae7606671aacff7
                        
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