Subject: POLITICO Playbook: 4 days until a shutdown
From: "Anna Palmer Jake Sherman Daniel Lippman" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 17 Dec 2018 05:05:01 -0600
List-Id: <1376319.xt.local>

Presented by the Stop The HIT Coalition: Playbook is POLITICO's must-read briefing on what's driving the day                Dec 17, 2018 View in browser                   
 By Jake Sherman, Anna Palmer and Daniel Lippman 
         
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Listen to today's Audio Briefing
              DRIVING THE DAY      
BULLETIN ... "JOHANNESBURG (AP) -- U.S. military carries out 6 airstrikes in Somalia against al-Shabab extremist rebels, 62 killed."

NEW ... SPEAKER PAUL RYAN'S office has cut a six-part series about his career-long goal of enacting tax reform. The full video will be released Tuesday. Here is a minute-long trailer ... RYAN'S farewell address is Wednesday.

SPEAKING OF SPEAKERS ... ELIANA JOHNSON and JAKE SHERMAN: "It's Boehner's turn: Inside D.C. memoir on the way": "The next big political memoir isn't coming from inside the Trump White House. But it is likely to offer eye-popping tales from inside another important D.C. institution.

"Former House Speaker John Boehner is at work on a memoir about his time in Washington, which stretched nearly two and a half decades, from 1991 to 2015. Then he was chased out of office by the right flank of his party.

"The tentative title, 'Notes From a Smoke-Filled Room,' suggests that Boehner intends to portray himself as an anachronism, a creature from a bygone era when bipartisan deals were negotiated by party leaders behind closed doors rather than in front of the cameras and on Twitter - and when a politician's habit for enjoying one too many glasses of expensive Merlot was indulged not excoriated." POLITICO

FOUR DAYS TILL SHUTDOWN ... NYT'S JULIE HIRSCHFELD DAVIS and EMILY COCHRANE on A1: "A Shutdown Looms. Can the G.O.P. Get Lawmakers to Show Up to Vote?": "Just days before a deadline to avert a partial government shutdown, President Trump, Democratic leaders and the Republican-controlled Congress are at a stalemate over the president's treasured border wall. But House Republican leaders are also confronting a more mundane and awkward problem: Their vanquished and retiring members are sick and tired of Washington and don't want to show up anymore to vote.

"Call it the revenge of the lame ducks. Many lawmakers, relegated to cubicles as incoming members take their offices, have been skipping votes in the weeks since House Republicans were swept from power in the midterm elections, and Republican leaders are unsure whether they will ever return.

"It is perhaps a fitting end to a Congress that has showcased the untidy politics of the Trump era: Even if the president ultimately embraces a solution that avoids a shutdown, House Republican leaders do not know whether they will have the votes to pass it.

"The uncertainty does not end there. With funding for parts of the government like the Department of Homeland Security set to lapse at midnight on Friday, Mr. Trump and top Republicans appear to have no definite plan to keep the doors open. It is clear that as Democrats uniformly oppose the president's demand for $5 billion for his border wall, any bill that includes that funding cannot pass the Senate, and might face defeat in the House, too." NYT

-- WHERE THE WHITE HOUSE IS ... AP'S HOPE YEN: "'We're going to do whatever is necessary to build the border wall to stop this ongoing crisis of illegal immigration,' White House senior adviser Stephen Miller said Sunday. Asked if that meant having a government shutdown, he said: 'If it comes to it, absolutely.'" AP

Good Monday morning. BOMBSHELL REPORT: WAPO'S CRAIG TIMBERG and TONY ROMM: "New report on Russian disinformation, prepared for the Senate, shows the operation's scale and sweep": "A report prepared for the Senate that provides the most sweeping analysis yet of Russia's disinformation campaign around the 2016 election found the operation used every major social media platform to deliver words, images and videos tailored to voters' interests to help elect President Trump - and worked even harder to support him while in office.

"The report, a draft of which was obtained by The Washington Post, is the first to study the millions of posts provided by major technology firms to the Senate Intelligence Committee, led by Sen. Richard Burr (R-N.C.), its chairman, and Sen. Mark Warner (Va.), its ranking Democrat. The bipartisan panel hasn't said whether it endorses the findings. It plans to release it publicly along with another study later this week.

"The research - by Oxford University's Computational Propaganda Project and Graphika, a network analysis firm - offers new details of how Russians working at the Internet Research Agency, which U.S. officials have charged with criminal offenses for interfering in the 2016 campaign, sliced Americans into key interest groups for targeted messaging. These efforts shifted over time, peaking at key political moments, such as presidential debates or party conventions, the report found." WaPo

FOR YOUR RADAR -- REUTERS: "Saudi Arabia denounces U.S. Senate resolutions on Khashoggi, Yemen"
       
A message from the Stop The HIT Coalition:
 
Small business employees and their families will pay, on average, nearly $500 more for their health care in 2020 if Congress allows the Health Insurance Tax (HIT) to return early next year. Congress can't let this $16 billion tax hit millions of hardworking Americans. It's time to Stop the HIT. Learn more.
         
JARED WATCH -- "Here's How The Chief Palestinian Negotiator Described His Last Meeting With Jared Kushner," by BuzzFeed's Tom Gara in Doha, Qatar: "Things continue to not look great for Senior Advisor to the President Jared Kushner's push for a Middle East peace deal. How could this be? It's not for a lack of meetings, of which there have been 37 in the almost two years since Trump took office, Palestinian chief negotiator Saeb Erekat said on Sunday at the Doha Forum in Qatar. Erekat himself has met with Kushner and others in the Trump administration 33 times, and Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas has had four summit meetings of his own.

"But Erekat's last meeting with Kushner took place more than a year ago and it did not go well, according to his account of the situation. In fact, you could fairly describe it as a disaster. Kushner revealed Trump's plan to move the U.S. embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, blowing up a long-standing agreement by U.S. presidents to hold back on such a move until the final status of Jerusalem is resolved. It didn't go well from there." BuzzFeed

WELCOME TO THE DEMOCRATIC MAJORITY ... JOHN BRESNAHAN, HEATHER CAYGLE  and LAURA BARRON-LOPEZ: "House Dems eye quick action on guns in new Congress": "House Democrats are planning to move several high-profile bills to combat gun violence soon after they take power in January, underscoring their belief that the political landscape has shifted dramatically on an issue that's plagued American society for decades.

"With backing from House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) and key chairmen, Democrats will move to require federal background checks on all gun sales, part of a broader effort by the party to advance long-stalled gun control measures. While the proposal won't get through the Republican-run Senate, much less become law, getting through the House will be a win for the gun-control movement, which has little to cheer about since President Donald Trump was sworn into office." POLITICO

-- DARREN SAMUELSOHN and KYLE CHENEY: "Pelosi's balancing act: Protecting Mueller amid impeachment fervor"

         
SEN. BOB CORKER (R-TENN.) on MSNBC'S "KASIE DC": HUNT: "Do you think that President Trump should be primaried?" CORKER: "I do think that we've got to remember what the Republican Party is." HUNT: "That's not a yes or no answer."

CORKER: "I want to get away from here and think about it, I mean this is an every day in the hallway question, right? I want to get away from here and think about that. What is happening right now is not the standard Republicanism that we've had in our country for many, many years and it's very different. So, is it important for someone to get there and at least remind people in their Republican primary what Republicans generally speaking have been about for generations? 

"I think it's important to remind people that we're going through an anomaly right now as it relates to much of the standard Republican focus that's been around for a long time. At the same time a lot of good things are happening, now as a Republican I love the fact that we have so many judges that are being confirmed. I love the fact that the animal spirits are being even more so released in the economy, I do I love all that."

THE INVESTIGATIONS ... WAPO'S ROXANNE ROBERTS: "Robert Mueller is the most unknowable man in Washington"

TRUMP'S MONDAY -- The president is having lunch with VP Mike Pence at 12:30 p.m. He is meeting with Interior Secretary Ryan Zinke at 1:45 p.m. in the Oval Office. He and first lady Melania Trump will participate in Christmas receptions at 5:15 p.m. and 8:30 p.m. in the Grand Foyer.
                 PLAYBOOK READS         

PHOTO DU JOUR: Residents attend a gathering in Strasbourg, France, on Sunday to pay homage to the victims of a gunman who killed four people and wounded a dozen more on Dec. 11. | Jean-Francois Badias/AP Photo
   
SUSAN GLASSER in her print debut in The New Yorker, "How Trump Made War on Angela Merkel and Europe: The German Chancellor and other European leaders have run out of patience with the President": "European leaders now worry that Trump's illiberal aims go well beyond his insistent demands on Merkel to pay more for NATO and stop shipping so many cars to the U.S. 'Many European leaders have told me that they are convinced that President Trump is determined to destroy the E.U.,' a former senior U.S. official told me. Trump has begun publicly calling the E.U. a 'foe,' and promoting the resurgence of nationalism, which Macron and Merkel see as a direct threat. ...

"Europe has had many fights with American Presidents over the years, but never in the seven decades since the end of the Second World War has it confronted one so openly hostile to its core institutions. Since Trump's election, Europe's leaders have feared that it would come to this, but they have disagreed about how to respond to him. Many hoped to wait Trump out. A few urged confrontation. Others, especially in nations more vulnerable to Russia, urged accommodation." New Yorker

2020 WATCH -- "'He was willing to be tough': Beto supporters brace for 2020 brawl," by David Siders in El Paso, Texas: "Beto O'Rourke says he hasn't decided yet if he will run for president. But here in his hometown, his supporters are bracing for a combative primary. And they point to a previous campaign - his 2012 run for Congress - as evidence that he can hold his own in an intraparty brawl.

"Six years before the high-minded Texas Senate run that lifted his national star, O'Rourke felled an eight-term incumbent House Democrat, Silvestre Reyes, casting him as ineffectual and unethical in a bruising primary campaign. The race pit O'Rourke not only against Reyes, but then-President Barack Obama, who endorsed the sitting congressman, and former President Bill Clinton, who campaigned for Reyes in the West Texas border district. In a stunning result, O'Rourke went to Congress, while Reyes became the only Texas incumbent to fail to win re-nomination that election year." POLITICO

-- "Here's What A Juli&aacute;n Castro Presidential Run Could Look Like," by BuzzFeed's Ryan Brooks

         
IAN KULLGREN -- "Want to run an agency? It helps to know Mitch McConnell": "The Trump administration, staring down a $54 billion pension crisis, is placing its faith in a man who is a stranger to most of Washington but for one big connection: His brother-in-law is Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and his sister-in-law is Transportation Secretary Elaine Chao.

"Gordon Hartogensis has little professional paper trail, and has largely just managed his family's sprawling investment portfolio after striking gold in a '90s startup and retiring by the time he was 29. But he is expected to gain Senate confirmation before the end of the year to run the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation, the troubled government backstop for people whose pension plans have become insolvent." POLITICO

WHAT WALL STREET IS READING -- "Malaysia Files Criminal Charges Against Goldman Sachs," by WSJ's Tom Wright: "Malaysian authorities on Monday filed criminal charges against Goldman Sachs Group Inc. units and a former partner of the bank in connection with the 1MDB financial scandal, the country's attorney general said in a statement. 

"Goldman Sachs International and two Asian subsidiaries of the Wall Street bank were charged under securities laws for the omission of material information and publishing of untrue statements in offering documents in 2012 and 2013 for the sale of international bonds by state investment fund 1Malaysia Development Bhd., or 1MDB. ... Malaysia's attorney general also filed charges against Tim Leissner, a former Goldman partner, under securities laws." WSJ
                 PLAYBOOKERS      
THE UNIVERSITY OF CHICAGO INSTITUTE OF POLITICS is announcing its winter quarter fellows: Illinois Attorney General Lisa Madigan; Missouri Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill; Rep. Peter Roskam (D-Ill.); Laura Washington, a Chicago Sun-Times columnist and ABC-7 political analyst; Sue Dvorsky, former chair of the Iowa Democratic Party; and Matt Strawn, former chair of the Iowa Republican Party. 

SPOTTED at a holiday brunch yesterday hosted by Patrick Steel and Lee Satterfield: Robert and Dr. Elena Allbritton, Terry McAuliffe, John Harris and Ann O'Hanlon, Melissa Moss and Jonathan Silver, Bruce Mehlman, Lorraine Voles, Stuart Holliday, Jeremy and Robyn Bash, Bobby Moran, Molly Levinson, Linda Douglass and John Phillips, Nate Tibbits, Dan and Aviva Rosenthal, Patrick Mellody, Adrienne Elrod, April Mellody, Evan Ryan, Stephanie Cutter, Don Baer and Andrew Schwartz.

BIRTHWEEK (was yesterday): Romanian Prime Minister Viorica Dăncilă turned 55 ... (was Saturday): former Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff turned 71.

BIRTHDAY OF THE DAY: Patrick Paolini, general manager of WTTG FOX 5 DC. Playbook Plus Q&A

BIRTHDAYS: Pope Francis is 82 ... Eli Pariser, co-founder of Upworthy and founder of MoveOn ... Sarah Doolin Roy ... Randall Gerard, managing director at Cogent Strategies ... Carol Thompson O'Connell ... Elaine Povich ... Scott Sadler ... Rep. Steve Knight (R-Calif.) is 52 ... Rep. Rick Nolan (D-Minn.) is 75 ... Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.) is 45 ... Chris Matthews is 73 ... Noah Rothman, associate editor at Commentary, is 37 ... Cyrus Krohn ... POLITICO's Sabrina Rodr&iacute;guez ... Erin Taylor ... Jessica Stone ... Carlson Teboh ... Daniel Ensign is 28 ... Rep. Donald Payne Jr. (D-N.J.) is 6-0 ... Tom Quinn of Venable ... Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari is 76 ...

... Kelli Arena, chief of strategic communications at NSA and a CNN alum ... Emma Vaughn ... Olivia Hnat ... Shannon Russell, lobbyist for AARP ... Aryeh Bourkoff is 46 ... Kevin Wardally ... Sheppie and Mike Abramowitz (hat tip: Dan Weiss) ... Michelle Morgan ... Edwena Johnson ... Judy Weiss ... Maja Suslin ... Jeff Cleary ... Doug Landry ... Taylor Foy ... Bob Witeck ... Chelsea Manning is 31 ... Debra Patterson ... Clare Gannon ... Wisconsin Supreme Court Justice Shirley Abrahamson is 85 ... Bailey Childers ... Katie Pakenham (h/ts Teresa Vilmain)
       
A message from the Stop The HIT Coalition:
 
Congress must act now to stop the 2020 Health Insurance Tax (HIT) before it drives up the cost of coverage for millions of Americans. This costly, unfair and hidden tax increases the cost of health insurance for small businesses and millions of seniors, forcing our country's hardest working families to pay even more for their health care. Working families will pay $480 on average in additional premium costs for 2020 alone and senior couples enrolled in Medicare Advantage are expected to pay more than $480 in additional premium costs. It's time for Congress to act and protect Americans from the HIT. Learn more.
                        
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