Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score: McSally appointed to Arizona Senate seat — Outside groups outspent candidates in 16 races in midterms — The CHC’s emboldened political arm
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 19 Dec 2018 09:02:03 -0600
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12/19/2018 10:00 AM EDT
        
By ZACH MONTELLARO ([email-masked]; @ZachMontellaro)

        
PROGRAMMING NOTE: Morning Score will not publish from Dec. 24-Jan 1. Our next newsletter will publish on Jan. 2.

Editor's Note: This edition of Morning Score is published weekdays at 10 a.m. POLITICO Campaign Pro subscribers hold exclusive early access to the newsletter each morning at 6 a.m. To learn more about POLITICO Pro's comprehensive policy intelligence coverage, policy tools and services, click here. 
          THE TOPLINES         
ARIZONA SENATE SEAT SHUFFLE - Democratic Rep. Kyrsten Sinema defeated GOP Rep. Martha McSally in a brutal election for the open Senate seat in Arizona that approached scorched-earth territory. But they'll both be in the Senate next year, after Gov. Doug Ducey decided to appoint McSally to the seat currently occupied by Jon Kyl (R-Ariz.), who is re-retiring from the Senate after taking over in September for the late Sen. John McCain.

Sinema will be sworn in first and be the delegation's senior senator, Ducey said. In a press conference, McSally said she is "humbled" by the appointment and praised Sinema. Behind the scenes, she has made moves to shore up support among Republicans. More from POLITICO's Alex Isenstadt and James Arkin: "Earlier this month she met privately with Ducey. And last week, she huddled with McCain's widow, Cindy. Some in the McCain orbit had been frustrated by McSally's decision to closely align herself with President Donald Trump as she campaigned for the Senate seat."

McSally will have to run in 2020 to fill the remaining two years of McCain's term - and again in 2022 if she wins the special election and wants to serve a full term of her own. With McSally's appointment, six states will have all-women delegations in the Senate next year: Arizona, California, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Nevada and Washington.

Good Wednesday morning. Want to read an interview with Sen. Sherrod Brown's (D-Ohio) barber? Of course you do, and here it is, from Cleveland.com's Andrew Tobias.  Email me at [email-masked] or DM me at @ZachMontellaro. 

Email the great Campaign Pro team at [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked], and [email-masked]. Follow them on Twitter: @PoliticoScott, @DanielStrauss4, @JamesArkin and @lbarronlopez.

Days until the 2019 election: 321

Days until the 2020 election: 685
          IN THE TRENCHES         
NC-09, CONTINUED - Democratic North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper threatened to veto a state bill that would have likely cleared a path for a new primary in NC-09 over concerns about other provisions in the bill. The News & Observer's Lynn Bonner: "Cooper said he planned to veto the bill because of a provision that would require campaign finance investigations the state elections board conducts be confidential. 'Fix it this week and I'll sign it,' Cooper said."

- And if you're wondering, there's precedent for a congressional race redo - 44 years ago. Steve Shepard looks at the two do-overs in the 1970s in POLITICO Magazine.

FIRST IN SCORE - MEGABUCKS - In 16 races this cycle, super PACs and so-called dark money groups outspent the actual candidates, according to a new report from Issue One's Michael Beckel. All told, it happened in seven races in the Senate and nine in the House. "When outside groups are spending more than candidates are on their own campaigns, we're in the danger zone," Issue One CEO Nick Penniman said in the report. "This startling development should worry Democrats, Republicans, and independents alike."

The biggest gap was in Missouri, where outside groups spent $19.9 million more than Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-Mo.) and Sen.-elect Josh Hawley (D-Mo.) did, combined. The largest gap in the House came in CA-25, which saw Rep.-elect Katie Hill (D-Calif.) and Rep. Steve Knight be outspent by $4.3 million. The 16 cases this cycle make up a third of instances for which this has happened since the Citizens United ruling in 2010.

BOLD MOVES - The political arm of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus had a banner year, raking in over $11 million and pouring $5 million in direct spending on targeted races.  "This is no longer, write a small check and pat them on the back," Rep. Pete Aguilar (D-Calif.) told me in a joint interview with Reps. Norma Torres (D-Calif.) and Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.), who all helmed CHC Bold PAC's independent expenditures operation. "This is a serious investment and helped early and often, to help diversify Congress and make Congress look like the communities in which we serve."

The group waded into several contested primaries to push Latino candidates to victory, as well as general election races like CA-39 and NY-19. The lessons learned for 2020? Texas will be a big target and Latino candidates aren't confined to majority-minority districts. "We can run anywhere, and we'll be there to support them, provided they're a really good candidate," Gallego said. However, don't expect the group to wade into primaries against sitting Democrats, like Rep.-elect Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (who is expected to join the CHC) and her allies want to do. "We're not in it to displace people, we're in it to replace people - unless we're talking about Republicans," Torres told me.

PRESIDENTIAL BIG BOARD - Sen. Kamala Harris (D-Calif.) traveled to Afghanistan last weekend as part of a congressional delegation, the San Francisco Chronicle's Tal Kopan reported. Harris also handily won a straw poll from She The People, a network of women of color in politics, BuzzFeed News' Ryan Brooks reported.

- Supporters have set up a second group to encourage Rep. Beto O'Rourke (D-Calif.) to run for president, POLITICO's Alex Thompson reported. The group will try to raise $1 million for O'Rourke's potential campaign.

WARNING SIREN - California Republicans suffered a near wipeout in 2018, losing seven House seats. And the state GOP chair is warning his fellow Republicans across the country that they could be next, thanks to demographic shifts. "All around us are signs we Republicans need to grow our party and appeal to more voters, but we have not yet found success. For all of our hard work, we have been unable to attract enough support from non-white voters to win in California," Jim Brulte wrote in The Hill. "Republicans beware: The demographic changes that have turned our state blue are coming to other states' communities too."

NEW-LOOK DEMOCRATS - The changing face of the Democratic party is perhaps most apparent in the Blue Dog Democrats. Now led by Florida Rep. Stephanie Murphy, the caucus has shed much of its old identity. The Washington Post's Paul Kane: "It's no longer conservative, or even centrist, but instead this coalition is morphing into a group of suburban and rural lawmakers from across the nation who adopt a nonpartisan, get-things-done ethos that allows them to move back and forth across the ideological spectrum."

TICK TOCK - Rep. Bruce Poliquin (R-Maine) is running out of options to try to erase his loss to Democratic Rep.-elect Jared Golden in ME-02. The Portland Press Herald's Kevin Miller: "In a brief filed Tuesday, Poliquin's lawyers asked the 1st U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals in Boston to grant an 'emergency injunction' preventing certification as they appeal a lower-court's rejection of a constitutional complaint against ranked-choice voting. While Poliquin received the most votes on Election Day, he failed to win a majority and ended up losing to Golden by more than 3,500 votes after a ranked-choice runoff."

STAFFING UP - Adam Piper was named the executive director of the Republican Attorneys General Association, per the AP's Meg Kinnard.

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "Well, that I am taller than they think. Television makes you short and fat." - Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) on what people misunderstand about him, to The Washington Post.
    
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