Subject: POLITICO Playbook: 1 step closer, with 2 days to go
From: "Anna Palmer Jake Sherman Daniel Lippman" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 20 Dec 2018 05:02:53 -0600
List-Id: <1376319.xt.local>

Presented by the Stop The HIT Coalition: Playbook is POLITICO's must-read briefing on what's driving the day                Dec 20, 2018 View in browser                   
 By Jake Sherman, Anna Palmer and Daniel Lippman 
         
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Listen to today's Audio Briefing
              DRIVING THE DAY      
LATE LAST NIGHT, the Senate passed the short-term government funding bill by a unanimous voice vote just after 10 p.m. SENATE MAJORITY LEADER MITCH MCCONNELL said, "We will still be in session tomorrow to see what the House does with what we just sent them."

HOUSE REPUBLICANS have not decided whether to pass this bill today -- they put off a decision last night. They have a party meeting at 10 a.m., but they had a rough night last night. The whip team surveyed House Republicans last night and found out that southern lawmakers were peeved the short-term spending bill included no disaster money. TO BE SURE, the stopgap spending bill would likely still pass, being carried mostly by Democrats.

CONSERVATIVES in the House Freedom Caucus are livid, and they took to the floor last night to rap Republicans for not building the wall as part of this spending bill. The topic took up the first 10 minutes of Fox News' "Hannity" last night. Expect to see Freedom Caucus folks all day today on Fox News to try to tell the president he shouldn't fold.

-- CNN'S OLIVER DARCY (@oliverdarcy) at 7:26 p.m.: "Trump's media allies are not happy w/his retreat on the border wall. Breitbart has called it a 'cave.' Drudge says 'TRUMP IN RETREAT.' Rush Limbaugh says Trump's going to 'get less than nothing.' And Fox News leading its website right now with a roundup of frustrated reactions."

NORTH CAROLINA REP. MARK MEADOWS, who certainly has the president's ear, told a group of us reporters this last night: "The last time I checked, I don't think our tactical advantage increases in February. ... It is Congress's fault [the president didn't get the wall] on his desk. But there is only one person who could fix it now. And that's the president of the United States." HOW WOULD HE FIX IT: "By vetoing this bill." AND THEN WHAT: "Renegotiating."

-- MEADOWS also said the president's "base will go crazy" if this bill passes, and said there will be "major" damage to the president's political standing.

MEANWHILE ... PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP has remained completely silent. The White House says they'd like to review the bill when they get it, but there isn't much to review. It's a straight extension of government funding until Feb. 8. 

BTW ... GUESS WHY Congress set the stopgap spending bill to Feb. 8? It's expected to be right after the State of the Union, where the president will undoubtedly make the case for his immigration policies, setting up what Republicans think will be a clear Trump-versus-Democrats fight. 

Good Thursday morning. JUST POSTED ... WAPO: "Trump administration aims to toughen work requirements for food stamps recipients"

SYRIA FALLOUT -- "Republicans rip Trump's surprise Syria withdrawal in meeting with Pence," by David Brown, Gregory Hellman and Burgess Everett: "GOP senators leveled blistering criticism at Vice President Mike Pence on Wednesday for President Donald Trump's decision to withdraw from Syria, with multiple Republican senators expressing outrage and frustration.

"Pence was dispatched to the Hill as the administration began absorbing a torrent of condemnation from hawkish Republicans, who blasted the White House announcement that the U.S. and its allies have defeated the Islamic State in Syria and that some of the 2,000 U.S. troops battling the terrorist group will begin coming home. ...

"Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) told Pence he was 'personally offended' to read about the decision in the news rather than hearing from the president or his aides. Graham has grown close to Trump and has generally praised him though he often criticized the president during the 2016 campaign." POLITICO

-- AMAZING DETAIL, via WaPo's Karen De Young: "A number of close U.S. allies who are members of the U.S.-led coalition against the Islamic State said they were not consulted and were given no prior warning. One European defense secretary put in a call Tuesday to Jim Mattis after hearing rumors of the decision and received a late-night call back from the defense secretary with confirmation. Gen. Joseph F. Dunford Jr., chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, did not participate in the meeting with Trump and was in the dark until after it took place, according to several people familiar with the situation." WaPo

-- "Mattis, once one of 'my generals,' loses his influence with Trump," by WaPo's Anne Gearan and Josh Dawsey

-- WAPO'S KAROUN DEMIRJIAN, SEUNG MIN KIM and PAUL KANE: "Trump snubs Corker, as critics and allies alike lambaste Syria decision": "'It's obviously a political decision,' Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Bob Corker (R-Tenn.) told reporters, after going to the White House for a previously scheduled meeting with Trump where he planned to ask him about the Syria decision. Instead, while he was waiting, Trump canceled on him without explanation." WaPo

MARKETS SLIDE ... 

-- YESTERDAY ... WSJ'S AMRITH RAMKUMAR: "The Dow Jones Industrial Average swung nearly 900 points Wednesday, slumping after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the fourth time in 2018 and signaled a milder path of increases over the next year. Major indexes turned negative following the Fed's decision, then tumbled anew during Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's remarks, falling alongside long-term Treasury yields as investors worried about the outlook for the economy." WSJ

-- TODAY ... FT'S ADAM SAMSON in London: "Global stocks rattled by Fed forecast on rates": "Global stock markets came under pressure on Thursday after Wall Street suffered its worst reaction to a Federal Reserve rate rise in more than two decades on worries that the US central bank was not slowing its plan to end an era of cheap money fast enough. 

"However, investors were expecting a more soothing tone from the Fed and its chairman Jay Powell. In a press conference, Mr Powell unnerved markets by saying that he did not see the central bank changing its 'autopilot' policy of reducing the size of the Fed's balance sheet. Asian and European equities on Thursday followed the lead of Wall St where the S&P 500, the main US stock barometer, declined 1.5 per cent in the latest in a string a tumultuous trading sessions. It was the worst drop following a Federal Reserve increase since 1994." FT

OBSERVATIONS FROM A PLAYBOOKER ON WALL STREET ... "Since the September Fed meeting, oil prices are down 40%. Since September, the S&P is down 15%. Jay Powell said the balance sheet runoff is going very smoothly and inflation is a 'touch' below where they expected. But 2018 is the first year on record in which every asset market on earth (corporate bonds, treasuries, commodities, equities globally) are all down for the year.

"POWELL SPOKE DOWN a 15% stock correction and a meltdown in the corporate bond market. To say they are hawkish is arguably the biggest understatement of all time, this fed is on a mission to push assets down with zero regard for the increase in risks ... in fact they said that since September the risk to their outlook is largely unchanged! I would hate to know what risky feels like to them."
       
A message from the Stop The HIT Coalition:
 
Small business employees and their families will pay, on average, nearly $500 more for their health care in 2020 if Congress allows the Health Insurance Tax (HIT) to return early next year. Congress can't let this $16 billion tax hit millions of hardworking Americans. It's time to Stop the HIT. Learn more.
         
THE MULVANEY ERA ... NANCY COOK: "Outgoing White House chief of staff John Kelly tried and failed to bring a military discipline to the West Wing. Mick Mulvaney doesn't plan to try. Mulvaney will approach the job far differently than Kelly, according to six sources close to the Trump aide and Republicans close to the White House. Most notably, he intends to give Trump more leeway to act as he chooses - a recognition that trying to control Trump is a futile approach.

"Mulvaney will adopt a much larger role in politics and messaging, and plans to take a more laissez faire approach to some quirks of the Trump White House that irked Kelly - like non-essential staffers attending meetings, or the president frequently reaching out to longtime friends, Republican lawmakers and advisers for advice or dinners in the White House residence. At one point, Mulvaney told to an ally he thought Kelly did a disservice to the president by constantly saying 'no.' ... The result could be an even more freewheeling White House." POLITICO

THE INVESTIGATIONS ... 

-- WAPO'S CAROL LEONNIG, ELLEN NAKASHIMA, ROZ HELDERMAN and MANUEL ROIG-FRANZIA: "Mueller seeks Roger Stone's testimony to House intelligence panel, suggesting special counsel is near end of probe of Trump adviser": "Special counsel Robert S. Mueller III asked the House Intelligence Committee on Friday for an official transcript of Trump adviser Roger Stone's testimony, according to people familiar with the request, a sign that prosecutors could be moving to charge him with a crime. 

"It is the first time Mueller has formally asked the committee to turn over material the panel has gathered in its investigation of Russian interference of the 2016 campaign, according to the people. The move suggests that the special counsel is moving to finalize his months-long investigation of Stone - a key part of Mueller's inquiry into whether anyone in President Trump's orbit coordinated with the Russians." WaPo

-- "Trump's Attorney General Pick Criticized an Aspect of Mueller Probe in Memo to Justice Department," by WSJ's Sadie Gurman and Aruna Viswanatha: "William Barr, President Trump's choice for attorney general, sent an unsolicited memo earlier this year to the Justice Department that excoriated special counsel Robert Mueller's inquiry into potential obstruction of justice by Mr. Trump, saying it is based on a 'fatally misconceived' theory that would cause lasting damage to the presidency and the executive branch. The 20-page document, which was reviewed by The Wall Street Journal, provides the first in-depth look at Mr. Barr's views on the special counsel's Russia investigation, which he
 would likely oversee if confirmed." WSJ

WHY MARYLAND'S ATTORNEY GENERAL IS SUING TRUMP -- Maryland Attorney General Brian Frosh tells POLITICO why he's fighting to defend Obamacare in court - and why he's arguing that acting AG Matthew Whitaker should be removed from his job. Listen to the podcast

         
THE JUICE ... 

-- NEARLY 20 LIBERAL GROUPS are sending a letter to NANCY PELOSI asking that she "limit the membership on key committees" of lawmakers who have "records of working in the service of the corporations and industries these committees are meant to regulate." They singled out the Problem Solvers Caucus. The signatories include the Working Families Party, Communications Workers of America and Daily Kos. The letter

-- Democratic fundraiser MARCUS SWITZER has signed on as national finance consultant for PETE BUTTIGIEG. Switzer, who has his own fundraising firm, was deputy national finance director for Hillary for America. 

-- SEN. JOHN CORNYN raised more than $20 million during the 2018 election cycle, according to a source familiar with the Texas Republican's fundraising efforts. Cornyn, who is stepping down as Senate GOP whip, raised more than $70 million during the last three election cycles.

TRUMP'S THURSDAY -- The president will sign the "Agriculture Improvement Act of 2018" at 2:30 p.m. at the South Court Auditorium. 

CLICKER -- "Barack Obama dons a Santa hat and hands out gifts in surprise visit to D.C. children's hospital," by WaPo's Helena Andrews-Dyer
                 PLAYBOOK READS         

PHOTO DU JOUR: Shaima Swileh, the Yemeni mother who won a waiver from the travel ban that allowed her to see her dying 2-year-old son in California, stands with her husband Ali Hassan after arriving in San Francisco, on Wednesday. | Jeff Chiu/AP Photo
   
2020 WATCH -- "Population boom could remake 2020 map," by Marc Caputo, Steve Shepard and Scott Bland: "Those population shifts are poised to have a tangible impact in 2020 - with demographic shifts cementing Florida's premier swing-state status, vaulting Arizona onto the list of 2020 swing states and perhaps putting Nevada further out of reach for President Donald Trump's reelection campaign." POLITICO

HMM -- "Wilbur Ross Said He Divested a Stock Holding - But He Didn't," by CPI's Carrie Levine: "U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross twice submitted sworn statements to ethics officials saying he had divested stock that he in fact still owned, a new document obtained by the Center for Public Integrity reveals. The disclosure, in a new filing by Ross, represents the latest in a series of inaccurate statements and omissions in Ross' personal financial statements since President Donald Trump tapped him as Commerce secretary in late 2016.

"Ross was supposed to sell his BankUnited, Inc. stock, valued at up to $15,000, within 90 days of his Senate confirmation, according to his federal ethics agreement - in other words, by the end of May 2017. ... But in October, Ross filed another transaction report with ethics officials acknowledging he had had not divested the BankUnited stock when he said he did - and continued to own it until October 1, 2018. The Office of Government Ethics has not yet certified this latest transaction report, but released the document in response to a request from the Center for Public Integrity." CPI

         
VALLEY TALK -- "Lawmakers fed up with Zuckerberg," by Steven Overly, Ashley Gold and John Hendel: "Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg is in hot water with Congress following new revelations about his company's data-sharing practices, with some senators saying he may have misled Congress when he testified this year about protecting the privacy of users. 'Mr. Zuckerberg told us that this kind of nonsense would end and it didn't,' Sen. John Neely Kennedy (R-La.) said Wednesday. ...

"In his congressional testimony in April, Zuckerberg assured lawmakers that 'we don't sell data to anyone.' But The New York Times reported Tuesday night that Facebook has long had financially beneficial agreements with companies such as Amazon, Microsoft, Google, Netflix and Spotify that allowed it to gain access to people's timelines, friend lists, private messages and other data - at times without the users' knowledge or expressed consent." POLITICO

MEDIAWATCH -- "BuzzFeed News Has Won A Lawsuit Over Its Decision To Publish The Trump Dossier," by BuzzFeed's Zoe Tillman: "A federal judge on Wednesday dismissed a defamation lawsuit against BuzzFeed News over the publication of a dossier in January 2017 that alleged several years of links between Russia and then-president-elect Donald Trump. A Cypriot businessman, Aleksej Gubarev, was named in the dossier, and his name wasn't redacted in the version originally published by BuzzFeed.

"Gubarev sued shortly after the article came out, claiming he was defamed by having his name included. U.S. District Judge Ursula Ungaro in Florida found that BuzzFeed News was shielded against defamation claims because the dossier was the subject of official proceedings - both Trump and then-president Barack Obama had been briefed on it, according to reporting at the time, and the FBI investigated allegations in the documents." BuzzFeed

-- WESA: "David Shribman, Top Editor At Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, Will Retire At The End Of The Year"
                 PLAYBOOKERS         

SPOTTED: Texas Rep. Beto O'Rourke at Medium Rare on Capitol Hill Wednesday evening. He took at least two photos with fans ... Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) at Art & Soul last night ... Bill O'Reilly on Capitol Hill yesterday. He was also spotted at the White House - pic (h/t Alex Thomas) ... 

... Joe and Jill Biden (and their granddaughters) yesterday at the Broadway show, "To Kill A Mockingbird," Aaron Sorkin's adaptation of Harper Lee's novel. Per our tipster: "Biden received a huge ovation when he took his seats and a bigger ovation from the cast when he came backstage after the show. Photos, selfies and even a voice mail message left for a cast member's mother, Biden was the highlight of the performance, especially for star Jeff Daniels (who handed Biden a pen with the logo that read 'ATTICUS FINCH IN 2020!') ... Outside the Shubert Theatre on W 44th Street, the Bidens waded through a sea of selfies until they reached safer ground at Carmine's Restaurant."

BIRTHDAY OF THE DAY: Alison Williams, COS to Ark. Gov. Asa Hutchinson. Playbook Plus Q&A 

BIRTHDAYS: Ag. Secretary Sonny Perdue is 72 ... Jen Bendery, senior politics reporter for HuffPost (hat tip: Ben Chang) ... journalist Murray Waas is 5-0 ... Joshua New of the Center for Data Innovation (h/t the ITIF team) ... Susan Neely, president/CEO of the American Council of Life Insurers (h/t Ed Cash) ... Tom Tancredo ... AP's Mary Clare Jalonick ... Scott Feinberg of the Hollywood Reporter ... Megan Nathan ... Mandi Rogers Thorpe ... Bo Creason ... Henry Hanna ... Campbell Massie, senior PR manager at AT&T ... David Pollak ... Donald Lathbury ... Patrick Sims, founder and CSO at Legend, is 34 ... Reid Kellam ... Alex DeParde (h/ts Dick Keil, Hillary DeParde and Susan Kellam) ...
 Wesley Merritt ...

... Tamer El-Ghobashy, WaPo Baghdad bureau chief (h/t Fareed Yasseen) ... photographer Jordan Emont ... former Sen. Jean Carnahan (D-Mo.) is 85 ... William Benedict ... Hannah Thoburn of House Armed Services ... Michelle Brooks ... Bill Kloiber ... Marisa Mills ... Marilisa Palumbo ... Mary Pat Moore ... Stephen Crockett ... John Herr ... Bob McDaniel (h/t Teresa Vilmain)
       
A message from the Stop The HIT Coalition:
 
Congress must act now to stop the 2020 Health Insurance Tax (HIT) before it drives up the cost of coverage for millions of Americans. This costly, unfair and hidden tax increases the cost of health insurance for small businesses and millions of seniors, forcing our country's hardest working families to pay even more for their health care. Working families will pay $480 on average in additional premium costs for 2020 alone and senior couples enrolled in Medicare Advantage are expected to pay more than $480 in additional premium costs. It's time for Congress to act and protect Americans from the HIT. Learn more.
                        
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