Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score: Early clues to the future of the House — North Carolina Board of Elections releases report on 2016 election complaints — Iowa Democrats considering major changes to caucus
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 20 Dec 2018 09:03:02 -0600
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12/20/2018 10:00 AM EDT
        
By ZACH MONTELLARO ([email-masked]; @ZachMontellaro)

        
PROGRAMMING NOTE: Morning Score will not publish from Dec. 24-Jan 1. Our next newsletter will publish on Jan. 2.

Editor's Note: This edition of Morning Score is published weekdays at 10 a.m. POLITICO Pro Campaigns subscribers hold exclusive early access to the newsletter each morning at 6 a.m. To learn more about POLITICO Pro's comprehensive policy intelligence coverage, policy tools and services, click here. 
          THE TOPLINES         
AN EARLY REAPPORTIONMENT LOOK - The census released its latest state population estimates Wednesday, which could provide a preview of House reapportionment after the 2020 elections. Campaign Pro's chief number-cruncher Scott Bland calculated that under the new population estimates, seven states would lose a district: Illinois, Michigan, Minnesota, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island and West Virginia. 

Their losses would flow south and west, benefitting Arizona, Colorado, Florida, North Carolina and Oregon - which would each gain one seat - and Texas, which would gain two seats. 

But we still have two years to go until the final numbers for the new House map are tabulated. The last five seats went to Colorado, Arizona, Ohio, Alabama and California - while Montana, Minnesota, Rhode Island, Florida and Texas were "seats 436-440," just missing out on picking up an additional district under POLITICO's calculation. 

- The population estimates can also give us hints to what states will be battlegrounds in the 2020 presidential election. POLITICO's Marc Caputo, Steve Shepard and Scott: "[P]opulation shifts are poised to have a tangible impact in 2020 - with demographic shifts cementing Florida's premier swing-state status, vaulting Arizona onto the list of 2020 swing states and perhaps putting Nevada further out of reach for President Donald Trump's reelection campaign. ...

The estimates "report Nevada is roughly tied for first for the greatest population growth by percentage over the past year (with Idaho, at 2.1 percent). But right behind were Arizona - where Democrats won a Senate election last month for the first time since 1988 - at 1.7 percent, and Florida, which is already the nation's largest swing state and grew at a 1.5-percent clip over the past year."

Good Thursday morning. Joe Biden has a very good dog. Email me at [email-masked] or DM me at @ZachMontellaro. 

Email the great Campaign Pro team at [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked], and [email-masked]. Follow them on Twitter: @PoliticoScott, @DanielStrauss4, @JamesArkin and @lbarronlopez.

Days until the 2019 election: 320

Days until the 2020 election: 684
          IN THE TRENCHES         
NC-09, CONTINUED - The North Carolina state board of elections released an investigation from the 2016 election focused on the much-maligned Bladen County, the focus of allegations of election fraud in the midterms. The report homes in on McCrae Dowless, the independent contractor who worked for Republican Mark Harris' campaign in 2018. '[I]nterviews led to information strongly suggesting that [Dowless] ... was paying certain individuals to solicit absentee request forms and to collect absentee ballots from Bladen County voters. In doing so, workers employed by Dowless were required to hand-carry the ballots to Dowless in order to be paid," the report said. "Dowless allegedly instructed his
 workers to 'push' votes for certain candidates while meeting with voters."

DATA WARS - DNC and state party officials are seeking to cool tempers and resolve the fight over control of voter data files. POLITICO's Alex Thompson: "After a roughly six-hour meeting between top DNC officials and officers from at least seven state parties at national party headquarters in Washington, DNC advisor Mary Beth Cahill and Ken Martin, the president of the Association of State Democratic Committees, released a conciliatory joint statement ... . The statement masked the simmering tensions that have marked ongoing discussions over the DNC's advocacy of a plan modeled on the Republican Party's data effort, and the resistance of many state party leaders to the idea."

A NEW TWIST ON THE INVISIBLE PRIMARY - South Carolina Republicans are considering axing their presidential primary entirely "in a move to protect President Trump from any primary challengers," the Washington Examiner's David Drucker writes. "Drew McKissick, chairman of the South Carolina GOP, said he doesn't anticipate Trump would face a primary challenge and emphasized that the state party executive committee hasn't held any formal discussions about the contest, dubbed 'first in the South' and usually third on the presidential nominating calendar. But McKissick would pointedly not rule out canceling the primary, indicating that that would be his preference."

- Iowa's GOP still committed to holding its caucus open to Republican challengers, Drucker reports.

- And speaking of potential primary challengers: A bid from outgoing Ohio Gov. John Kasich is looking slim. "I don't get into things that I don't think I can win," Kasich said at a forum, per Cleveland.com's Jeremy Pelzer. "And I think right now, today, inside the Republican Party, I can't beat [Trump] in a primary."

PRESIDENTIAL BIG BOARD - Another name: Sen. Michael Bennet (D-Colo.) told Yahoo News' Jon Ward that he's "thinking about" a run for the White House.

- California Democratic Sen. Kamala Harris' potential candidacy is drawing excitement among the Indian-American community, McClatchy's Katie Glueck reported.

A NEW IOWA - Iowa Democrats are considering fundamental changes to their famed caucuses. The Washington Post's Matt Viser: "The details are still being worked out - and would need to be adopted by a state committee and approved by the DNC - but it would be a fundamental shift in how the caucuses have been conducted for decades. One idea is to use a ranked ballot, another is to allow a proxy vote by a trusted friend or relative. Other ideas include having one dedicated precinct for all absentee ballots, or conducting a caucus over the telephone, the way it is done for military members serving overseas. ... State party officials plan to finalize their proposal by early May, but they are
 conscious of any change that would make the caucus seem more like a primary. "

THE 2019 ELECTIONS - Democrats are turning to "one-of-a-kind" candidates in three 2019 gubernatorial elections in Kentucky, Louisiana and Mississippi. Campaign Pro's Daniel Strauss reports: "Louisiana Gov. John Bel Edwards, a Democrat elected in 2015, is avowedly anti-abortion, a disappearing position in today's Democratic Party. Mississippi Attorney General Jim Hood has called himself a 'poster child' for gun rights. And like them, Kentucky Attorney General Andy Beshear - the son of popular former Democratic Gov. Steve Beshear - is portraying himself as a common-sense technocrat disinterested in partisan politics. ... 'When you're a poor state like Kentucky then you have real problems to
 address, and none of them are even ideological,' Beshear said in an interview."

PUMPING THE BRAKES - A plan by Michigan Republicans to strip campaign finance enforcement powers from the incoming Democratic secretary of state appears to have stalled, the Detroit Free Press' Paul Egan reported.

VOTING RIGHTS WATCH - New York is one of the most reliably blue states in the nation, but it has some of the most restrictive voter laws - something Democratic Gov. Andrew Cuomo wants to tackle now with his party in control of the Legislature. The New York Times' Vivian Wang: "But even the most ardent backers acknowledged political and logistical obstacles. Not only Republicans are to blame for the inertia of voting reform in New York, according to Wendy Weiser, the director of the Democracy Program at New York University's Brennan Center for Justice. Machine politics and the advantages of incumbency make many politicians wary of changing the system."

- Republican lawmakers in North Carolina overrode a veto from Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper on Wednesday to make voter ID required in the state, The News & Observer's Lynn Bonner reported. A previous voter ID law in the state was tossed in 2016.

DISINFORMATION WARS - A small group of Democrats launched a secret experiment in the 2017 Alabama Senate race that mirrored tactics used by the Russians in 2016. The New York Times' Scott Shane and Alan Blinder: "The secret project, carried out on Facebook and Twitter, was likely too small to have a significant effect on the race, in which the Democratic candidate it was designed to help, Doug Jones, edged out the Republican, Roy S. Moore. But it was a sign that American political operatives of both parties have paid close attention to the Russian methods, which some fear may come to taint elections in the United States. ... There is no evidence that [now Sen. Doug] Jones sanctioned or was
 even aware of the social media project."

POLLS POLLS POLLS - What are all these early Democratic presidential polls really about? Name recognition, of course! A new national Quinnipiac poll found Biden leading the pack with the highest approval rating, 53 percent positive to 33 percent negative. But for many, many other candidates - including Rep. Beto O'Rourke, Sens. Cory Booker (D-N.J.), Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.), Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) and Harris - a majority of voters didn't know enough about the candidate to draw an opinion. Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) had a negative approval rating, 30 percent to 37 percent. So did former New York City Mayor Mike Bloomberg, 22 percent to 32 percent (1,147 voters, Dec. 12-17).

- In an early 2020 Senate poll, Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.) is looking strong. The Mason-Dixon Virginia poll found that 55 percent of Virginia voters would vote to re-elect Warner if the election was held today, and 37 percent would vote to replace him (625 registered voters, Dec. 14-18).

WHAT'S NEXT? - Sen. Dean Heller (R-Nev.) could find a soft landing as the next Interior secretary following his exit from the Senate next year. The Nevada Independent's Humberto Sanchez reports that Heller wants the gig, and many of his current colleagues support him.

- Former Georgia Democratic gubernatorial nominee Stacey Abrams is joining the Center for American Progress' board of directors, the liberal think tank announced Wednesday.

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "I've been called every name in the book by Claire McCaskill, ... but I didn't mind it." - Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, via POLITICO's Burgess Everett.
    
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