Subject: POLITICO Playbook: Shutdown: Day one
From: "Anna Palmer Jake Sherman Daniel Lippman" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 22 Dec 2018 08:46:36 -0600
List-Id: <1376319.xt.local>

Presented by the Stop The HIT Coalition: Playbook is POLITICO's must-read briefing on what's driving the day                Dec 22, 2018 View in browser                   
 By Jake Sherman, Anna Palmer and Daniel Lippman 
         
Presented by
                   DRIVING THE DAY      
YOUR GOVERNMENT: Shut down. YOUR CONGRESS: Working ... We think?

THE LATEST ... At about 5:50 Friday afternoon, SENATE MAJORITY LEADER MITCH MCCONNELL (R-KY.) announced a deal to try to get a deal. Here's what happened ...

SENS. BOB CORKER (R-TENN.), JEFF FLAKE (R-ARIZ.) and DOUG JONES (D-ALA.) voted yes on the motion to proceed to the House funding bill, basically so they could gut it and create what Corker called a "global agreement" to pass the seven remaining government funding bills. They are ignoring the House bill, which has $5 billion in wall money. And they said no "show votes" between now and the ultimate deal. FLAKE said: "There is no path forward for the House bill."

MOST PEOPLE THINK that the deal will include some $1.6 billion for border security money -- the amount in a previously agreed to Senate spending deal. 

BUT ... REP. JIM JORDAN (R-OHIO), the Freedom Caucus leader, is not happy. He told Jake this Friday evening after exiting a meeting on the Senate side of the Capitol: "[$]1.6 [billion] is not going to make it. There's no way. They were there two weeks ago. It's gotta be more than that."

-- JAKE ASKED if there was a risk the president would go wobbly: "No, the president knows how important this is. He campaigned on it. The president's been fighting the whole time to get done what needs to get done." 

NEW DYNAMIC ... VP MIKE PENCE was up in the Capitol, along with Mick Mulvaney and Jared Kushner. Pence and Mulvaney, of course, were bomb throwers in the House. And Kushner has limited experience in Congress, though he did have a recent win on criminal justice reform.

BEHIND THE SCENES: BURGESS EVERETT and JOHN BRESNAHAN: "Inside the frantic negotiations that failed to avert a shutdown" ... The POLITICO ledeall on the shutdown

HOW IT'S PLAYING ... WAPO: "Shutdown begins as Congress fails to reach deal" ... NYT: "Government Shuts Down as Talks Fail to Break Impasse" ... WSJ: "U.S. Government Shuts Down Over Border Wall Funding"

THERE'S NO TELLING HOW LONG this shutdown can go. One man decides when government should open up: PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP. 

THERE IS CONCERN AMONG REPUBLICANS that Pence and Mulvaney will cut a deal that the president won't support. Trump has been completely unpredictable here.

JOINT NANCY PELOSI and CHUCK SCHUMER STATEMENT emailed at 12:23 a.m.: "Regrettably, America has now entered a Trump Shutdown. Republicans control the House, the Senate, and the White House. But instead of honoring his responsibility to the American people, President Trump threw a temper tantrum and convinced House Republicans to push our nation into a destructive Trump Shutdown in the middle of the holiday season. 

"President Trump has said more than 25 times that he wanted a shutdown and now he has gotten what he wanted. Democrats have offered Republicans multiple proposals to keep the government open, including one that already passed the Senate unanimously, and all of which include funding for strong, sensible, and effective border security - not the president's ineffective and expensive wall. If President Trump and Republicans choose to continue this Trump Shutdown, the new House Democratic majority will swiftly pass legislation to re-open government in January." 
 
-- TRUMP tweeted a 1 min. 36 second shutdown video at 9:49 p.m. 

THE SENATE and HOUSE will gavel back in today whether there is a deal, or not. The House will immediately recess and go into recess subject to the call of the chair. 

WHERE THINGS STAND: Funding for the Agriculture, Commerce, Homeland Security, Housing and Urban Development, Justice, Interior and Treasury departments and agencies like the EPA, FDA and IRS has expired. 

-- THE HOUSE is expected to pass a bill the Senate already cleared that would ensure government employees get paid once the shutdown ends.

A message from the Stop The HIT Coalition:
 
Small business employees and their families will pay, on average, nearly $500 more for their health care in 2020 if Congress allows the Health Insurance Tax (HIT) to return early next year. Congress can't let this $16 billion tax hit millions of hardworking Americans. It's time to Stop the HIT. Learn more.
         
SIREN ... GOP SPLITS WITH TRUMP -- ELIANA JOHNSON and BURGESS EVERETT: "Trump sees dangerous cracks in Hill GOP support": "President Donald Trump faces a dangerous erosion of support among rank-and-file Republicans thanks to a series of jarring recent moves that have alienated even some close GOP allies.

"From his defense of Saudi Arabia's crown prince over the murder of a dissident journalist to his abrupt decision to pull American troops out of Syria to his demand for a government shutdown, Trump has been angering friendly lawmakers, leading some who typically kept their disagreements to themselves to speak up.

-- KEY POINT: "The trend could prove perilous for the president after Democrats assume control of the House in January. Should the House vote to impeach Trump, he will have to rely on an increasingly exasperated Senate GOP conference to prevent him from being thrown out of office." POLITICO

-- "GOP breaks with Trump over Syria, Afghanistan and Mattis - but lacks power to stop him," by WaPo's Karoun Demirjian

THE TRUMP SLUMP ... 

-- WSJ: "Stock Rout Puts Nasdaq in Bear Market," by Michael Wursthorn: "U.S. stocks ended a brutal week on track for their worst month since the financial crisis, the culmination of a rout that threatens to halt the longest-ever bull market. The Nasdaq Composite became the first domino to fall Friday, sliding into a bear market as trading volumes surged to the highest daily level in more than seven years." WSJ

-- FT: "Wall Street set for worst December since 1930s as global stocks retreat"

SCOOP -- MORE TRUMP CHURN? -- "Trump Said to Discuss Firing Fed's Powell After Latest Rate Hike," by Jennifer Jacobs, Margaret Talev and Saleha Mohsin: "President Donald Trump has discussed firing Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell as his frustration with the central bank chief intensified following this week's interest-rate increase and months of stock-market losses, according to four people familiar with the matter.

 "Advisers close to Trump aren't convinced he would move against Powell and are hoping that the president's latest bout of anger will dissipate over the holidays, the people said on condition of anonymity. Some of Trump's advisers have warned him that firing Powell would be a disastrous move.

 "Yet the president has talked privately about firing Powell many times in the past few days, said two of the people." Bloomberg

ON THE WORLD STAGE -- "Reliable Allies Refuse to Defend a President Content With Chaos," by NYT's Katie Rogers and Maggie Haberman: "As he lost the public support of those once willing to step forward on his behalf, Mr. Trump grew angry over his news coverage and told people close to him that he would be fine without Mr. Mattis. He rebuffed them for even expressing concern. Mr. Trump also privately groused about having to postpone departure plans for his 16-day trip to Mar-a-Lago, his Florida resort. On Friday, Melania Trump, the first lady, had already made plans to leave town with the couple's son Barron, according to her spokeswoman.

"Mr. Kushner and his wife, Ivanka Trump, the president's daughter, who are also planning to go to Mar-a-Lago, were preparing to stay with Mr. Trump in Washington, an administration official said. Outside the family, a litany of staffing problems loomed as the shutdown deadline drew nearer. Mr. Trump privately complained that Mr. Mulvaney, who stepped into the vacancy left by John F. Kelly after others turned down the chief of staff position, had given him few options for averting the shutdown." NYT

HOW WE GOT HERE -- "A tumultuous week began with a phone call between Trump and the Turkish president," by WaPo's Karen DeYoung, Missy Ryan, Josh Dawsey and Greg Jaffe: "The Islamic State, according to Trump himself, had been defeated, Erdogan said. Turkey's military was strong and could take on any remaining militant pockets. Why did some 2,000 U.S. troops still need to be there? 'You know what? It's yours,' Trump said of Syria. 'I'm leaving.' 

"The call, shorthanded in more or less the same words by several senior administration officials, set off events that, even by the whirlwind standards of Washington in the Trump years, have been cataclysmic. They ended, for the moment at least, with Thursday's resignation of Defense Secretary Jim Mattis." WaPo

-- THE DAILY BEAST'S SPENCER ACKERMAN and KIM DOZIER, "Bolton's Hawkish Syria Plan Backfired, Pushing Trump to Get Out: The national security adviser expanded U.S. goals in Syria to challenge Iran. But Trump wasn't on board, senior officials say, and Turkey took an opportunity to push the U.S. out."

    
         
THE IMPACT: NYT'S DAVID SANGER -- "With the Generals Gone, Trump's 'America First' Could Fully Emerge": "Pulling completely out of Afghanistan is entirely within the realm of possibility, foreign diplomats and Pentagon officials say - and Mr. Trump appears to be halfway there with the planned troop reduction. But that may be only a start. Mr. Trump has often threatened to pull back forces from the Pacific, wondering why he should be paying to defend Japan and South Korea, especially given the fact that the United States has trade deficits with both. ...

"Chafing at the limits imposed by arms control treaties signed by predecessors back to Ronald Reagan, he could decide to resume a nuclear arms race - one aimed more at China than Russia - if the administration goes ahead with its threat to suspend the Intermediate Nuclear Forces treaty in early February." NYT

-- "Senators want a 'Mattis clone': Both parties say the next Pentagon chief must check Trump's isolationist impulses," by Gregory Hellman and Marianne Levine.

WHITAKER WATCH -- "Trump lashed out at Whitaker after explosive Cohen revelations," by CNN's Laura Jarrett and Pamela Brown: "President Donald Trump has at least twice in the past few weeks vented to his acting attorney general, angered by federal prosecutors who referenced the President's actions in crimes his former lawyer Michael Cohen pleaded guilty to, according to multiple sources familiar with the matter. 

"Trump was frustrated, the sources said, that prosecutors Matt Whitaker oversees filed charges that made Trump look bad. None of the sources suggested that the President directed Whitaker to stop the investigation, but rather lashed out at what he felt was an unfair situation." CNN

-- "Senior Justice Dept. officials told Whitaker signing gun regulation might prompt successful challenge to his appointment," by WaPo's Devlin Barrett: "Senior Justice Department lawyers advised acting attorney general Matthew G. Whitaker not to sign a gun regulation change earlier this week, warning him that doing so could lead to a successful legal challenge to his appointment as the nation's top law enforcement official, according to officials familiar with the discussions." WaPo

CLICKER - "The nation's cartoonists on the week in politics," edited by Matt Wuerker - 10 keepers

                 PLAYBOOK READS         

PHOTO DU JOUR: The U.S. Capitol dome is seen past the base of the Washington Monument just before sunrise in Washington on Saturday. | Carolyn Kaster/AP Photo
   
K-FILE - "Mick Mulvaney in 2015: Trump's views on border wall 'simplistic,' 'absurd and almost childish,'" by CNN's Andrew Kaczynski: "[I]n the August 25, 2015, interview on WRHI radio in South Carolina ... Mulvaney [said:] 'The fence doesn't solve the problem. Is it necessary to have one, sure? Would it help? Sure. But to just say build the darn fence and have that be the end of an immigration discussion is absurd and almost childish for someone running for president to take that simplistic of [a] view,' Mulvaney added, without making a distinction between a fence or wall." CNN

DANIEL STRAUSS: "2019 governors races feature endangered species: conservative Dems"

PAUL DEMKO in Jackson, Miss.: "Mississippi's Republican governor quietly considering Medicaid expansion": "Mississippi's Republican governor is considering Medicaid expansion, the first sign that long-held GOP opposition could be wilting in the Deep South after an election that was a big winner for the Obamacare program.

"Republican Gov. Phil Bryant, entering his final year in office, has been engaged in quiet talks about adopting expansion after resisting for years, according to two sources familiar with the discussions." POLITICO

         
MEDIAWATCH -- "Is 'Fox & Friends' getting feistier with its Friend in Chief?" by WaPo's Paul Farhi and Sarah Ellison

GREAT WEEKEND READS, curated by Daniel Lippman, filing from Bernal, Mexico:

-- "Johnson & Johnson knew for decades that asbestos lurked in its Baby Powder," by Reuters' Lisa Girion: "Facing thousands of lawsuits alleging that its talc caused cancer, J&J insists on the safety and purity of its iconic product. But internal documents examined by Reuters show that the company's powder was sometimes tainted with carcinogenic asbestos and that J&J kept that information from regulators and the public." Reuters 

-- "What Caf&eacute;s Did for Liberalism," by the New Yorker's Adam Gopnik - per ALDaily.com's description: "Ornate chandeliers, marble tables, waiters dressed like dignitaries: How the caf&eacute;s of Europe became the gilded birthplace of cosmopolitanism." New Yorker

-- "When Your Body Says No," by Christopher Solomon in Outside Magazine - per Longreads.com's description: "In this poignant piece, longtime runner Christopher Solomon considers loss and the body's inevitable decline as he recounts how his father helped him fall in love with running, what running has meant to him over the decades, and the injury that stands between him, daily roadwork, and the peace and joy that it can bring." Outside

-- "How Do You Recover After Millions Have Watched You Overdose?" by NYT's Katharine Q. Seelye, Julie Turkewitz, Jack Healy and Alan Blinder: "Amid an opioid crisis, police and strangers with cameras are posting raw images of drug users passed out. For those whose bleakest moments now live online, life is never the same." NYT

-- "Jamal Khashoggi's final months as an exile in the long shadow of Saudi Arabia," by WaPo's Souad Mekhennet and Greg Miller: "Khashoggi, a contributing columnist for The Washington Post, was a writer of modest influence beyond the Middle East when he was alive. In death, he has become a symbol of a broader struggle for human rights, as well as a chilling example of the savagery with which autocratic regimes silence voices of dissent." WaPo

-- "'Oh, no': The day Trump learned to tweet," by Ben Schreckinger: "'The moment I found out Trump could tweet himself was comparable to the moment in 'Jurassic Park' when Dr. Grant realized that velociraptors could open doors,' recalled [Justin] McConney, who was the Trump Organization's director of social media from 2011 to 2017. 'I was like, "Oh no."' POLITICO

-- "A Parting of Ways," by Liam Hoare in Tablet Magazine - per ALDaily.com's description: "'What would Hitchens say?' The question is asked when a new crisis emerges. But it's the wrong question. Better to think for yourself." Tablet

-- "The Dallas Mavericks' New CEO Is Cleaning Up a #MeToo Mess," by Mary Pilon on the cover of Bloomberg Businessweek: "When Mark Cuban needed help, he turned to Cynthia Marshall." Bloomberg

-- "I read 1,182 emergency room bills this year. Here's what I learned," by Vox's Sarah Kliff: "A $5,571 bill to sit in a waiting room, $238 eyedrops, and a $60 ibuprofen tell the story of how emergency room visits are squeezing patients." Vox (h/t TheBrowser.com)

-- "Bankruptcy on the Table as Boy Scouts Confront Sex Abuse Claims," by Bloomberg's Dune Lawrence: "Plaintiffs say the Boy Scouts didn't do enough to protect them. Now the organization is taking measures to protect itself." Bloomberg

-- "The indispensable man," by Conrad Black in the New Criterion, reviewing "Churchill: Walking with Destiny," by Andrew Roberts: Churchill "served a total of sixty-three years in Parliament, forty-two years in government or as the leader of the opposition; engaged personally in five wars, sustaining many injuries and a few wounds; wrote thirty-nine books, countless articles, and five thousand major speeches. To say it was a monumental career would be, even by British standards, an understatement." New Criterion ... $24 on Amazon (h/t TheBrowser.com) 

                 PLAYBOOKERS      
SPOTTED -- Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) this morning at the DCA Admirals Club before his 6 a.m. flight to Miami ... Steve and Jean Case yesterday seated near the front window of Georgetown's iconic J.Paul's having dinner on the last weekend before it closes ... Muriel Bowser at Ghibellina last night

BIRTHDAYS: Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) is 48 ... Mike Needham, COS for Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), is 37 (hat tips: Olivia Perez-Cubas and Chris Tucker) ... Jamie Kirchick is 35 ... DJ Nordquist ... EEI's Rich Ward is 38 ... Matt Manda ... Diane Sawyer ... Hank Sheinkopf ... Paul Wolfowitz is 75 ... Maeve Coyle of EMILY's List ... Adam Verdugo (h/t Rachel Adler) ... CNN Politics' Daniella Diaz ... Mary Baskerville ... Libby Rosenbaum, CEO of the American Council of Young Political Leaders ... Rep. Barry Loudermilk (R-Ga.) is 55 ... POLITICO's Kristin Longe ... Cherylyn Harley LeBon ... former Rep. Bill Lipinski (D-Ill.) is 81 ... Matt Kaplan (h/t Tom Hill) ... Colin Jones ... Mary Waters,
 assistant secretary of state for legislative affairs (h/t Matt Mowers) ... Jake Perry (h/t Josh Alcorn) ... Maria Thorbourne of FP1 Strategies ... former Energy Sec. Ernie Moniz, now the CEO of the Nuclear Threat Initiative (h/t Cathy Gwin) ... Beau Phillips ... Marc Raimondi (h/ts Tim Burger) ...

... Michele Kelemen, NPR diplomatic correspondent ... Chris Austin ... Patrick Lee (h/t Blake Waggoner) ... Simone Friedman ... Michael Huttner ... Tamara Fuhrman Spilka ... Eugene Steuerle is 72 ... Scott Pellegrino is 53 ... Mary Elizabeth ... Andrew Egger ... Poolhouse's Matthew Mazzone, who celebrated by going to the Drake concert in ATL last month (h/t Will Ritter) ... Justin Duckham ... Mark Bowles of McGuireWoods ... Michael Corbett ... Sam Harper is 36 ... WaPo's Valerie Strauss ... AEI's Rachel Manfredi ... Sonya Medina ... AP's Matt Small ... Valeria Carranza ... Nick Thomas ... Nick Moore ... David Jackson of Rep. Jeff Duncan's office ... Shonna Smith ... Dave Stegmaier ...
 Roxanne Stachowski ... John Kiely ... Sally Probasco ... Linda Sinoway ... Karen Defilippi (h/ts Teresa Vilmain)

THE SHOWS, by @MattMackowiak, filing from Munich, Germany:

NBC
 
"Meet the Press": Senate Minority Whip Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) ... Sen. Pat Toomey (R-Pa.) ... Juli&aacute;n Castro. Panel: Yamiche Alcindor, Hugh Hewitt, Joshua Johnson and Amy Walter
   
CNN
 
"State of the Union": Sen. Bob Corker (R-Tenn.) ... Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) ... Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.). Panel: Rick Santorum, Nina Turner, Paul Begala and Mary Katharine Ham
   
ABC
 
"This Week": Guests to be announced. Panel: Chris Christie, Donna Brazile, Rich Lowry and Elisabeth Bumiller
   
CBS
 
"Face the Nation": Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) ... Sen. Chris Coons (D-Del.) ... Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.). Panel: Major Garrett, David Martin, Jeff Pegues and Paula Reid
   
Fox
 
"Fox News Sunday": Ohio Gov. John Kasich ... Leon Panetta. Panel: Katie Pavlich, Gillian Turner, Susan Page and Mo Elleithee ... "Power Player of the Week" segment with Wreaths Across America founder Morrill Worcester (re-aired piece)
   
Fox News
 
"Sunday Morning Futures": Rep. Mark Meadows (R-N.C.) ... Rep. John Ratcliffe (R-Texas) ... Rep. David Cicilline (D-R.I.) ... Ret. Gen. Jack Keane ... Archbishop of New York Cardinal Timothy Dolan. Panel: Ed Rollins and Brad Blakeman
   
Fox News
 
"MediaBuzz": Mollie Hemingway ... Sarah Fischer ... Philippe Reines ... Bill Bennett ... Gillian Turner ... technology analyst Shana Glenzer.
   
CNN
 
"Inside Politics": Panel: Michael Shear, Jonathan Martin, Elana Schor and Manu Raju
   
CNN
 
"Fareed Zakaria GPS": Richard Haass ... Niall Ferguson and Steven Pinker ... teen climate activist Greta Thunberg
   
CNN
 
"Reliable Sources": Panel: Carl Bernstein, Sarah Ellison, Ben Smith and Douglas Brinkley ... Dara Lind ... David Zurawik ... Rebecca Keegan and Brian Lowry
   
Univision
 
"Al Punto": Lin-Manuel Miranda ... Nicaraguan journalist and director Carlos Fernando Chamorro ... Argentinian actress Thelma Fardin ... Guatemalan consul in Del Rio, Texas Tekandi Paniagua ... actress Yalitza Aparicio
   
C-SPAN
 
"The Communicators": author Byron Reese ("The Fourth Age") ... "Newsmakers": Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) and Sen. James Inhofe (R-Okla.) ... "Q&A": Holman Jenkins
   
Washington Times
 
"Mack on Politics" weekly politics podcast with Matt Mackowiak (download on iTunes, Google Play, or Stitcher or listen at MackOnPolitics.com): South Texas College of Law professor Josh Blackman.
               
A message from the Stop The HIT Coalition:
 
Congress must act now to stop the 2020 Health Insurance Tax (HIT) before it drives up the cost of coverage for millions of Americans. This costly, unfair and hidden tax increases the cost of health insurance for small businesses and millions of seniors, forcing our country's hardest working families to pay even more for their health care. Working families will pay $480 on average in additional premium costs for 2020 alone and senior couples enrolled in Medicare Advantage are expected to pay more than $480 in additional premium costs. It's time for Congress to act and protect Americans from the HIT. Learn more.
                        
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