Subject: POLITICO Playbook: Shutdown standoff continues
From: "Anna Palmer Jake Sherman Daniel Lippman" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 26 Dec 2018 05:20:09 -0600
List-Id: <1376319.xt.local>

Presented by UnitedHealth Group: Playbook is POLITICO's must-read briefing on what's driving the day                Dec 26, 2018 View in browser                   
 By Jake Sherman, Anna Palmer and Daniel Lippman 
         
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                   DRIVING THE DAY      
GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN ... DAY 5. WE ANTICIPATE that talks to end the government shutdown will pick up a smidge. The White House may chat with the congressional leadership and some offers may be swapped beginning today. But PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP is not sending any blaring signals that he's interested in ending the standoff. 

WAPO'S PHIL RUCKER (@PhilipRucker): "Trump claims that 'many' federal workers want the government to stay closed: 'Many of those workers have said to me, communicated, stay out until you get the funding for the wall. These federal workers want the wall.'"

PUT ASIDE THE OBVIOUS QUESTION -- how are regular workers contacting the president? -- it does not seem as if the president is getting itchy to end this. Remember: A vote is always at least 24 hours away, since members of Congress have to get back in town after a deal is cut. The Senate is not set to come back until tomorrow, and the House has announced no votes before tomorrow. Democrats feel as if their leverage increases with each passing day as they get closer to holding the House majority.

-- AP: "Post-holiday, partial government shutdown to gain impact," by Darlene Superville: "Wednesday brings the first full business day after several government departments and agencies closed up over the weekend due to a budgetary stalemate between President Donald Trump and Congress. And there is no end in sight.

"So far, the public and federal workers have largely been spared inconvenience and hardship because government is closed on weekends and federal employees were excused from work on Christmas Eve and Christmas, a federal holiday." AP

WHITE HOUSE SENIOR ADVISERS IVANKA TRUMP AND JARED KUSHNER are on vacation during this shutdown. They are in Florida. Daily Mail

WHERE THE PRESIDENT'S HEAD IS ... WSJ'S PETER NICHOLAS, MICHAEL WURSTHORN and PAUL KIERNAN: "As Market Rout Continues, Trump Stands Firm on Fed, Border Wall": "Mr. Trump, speaking in the Oval Office on Christmas Day, said the Federal Reserve is 'raising interest rates too fast'-a practice he blames for volatile U.S. indexes. 

"With a view toward giving Mr. Trump a clearer idea of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's work and focus, administration aides have discussed setting up a private meeting between the two men early in the new year. The Treasury Department, headed by Steven Mnuchin, has looked into whether there was precedent for such a meeting, an administration official said. Presidents have met with Fed leaders in the past. ...

"'The best thing is for the president to have a conversation with his Fed chairman,' said Larry Kudlow, Mr. Trump's top economic adviser. 'Why not? It's happened all the time.' ... On Christmas Day, a former senior Republican Treasury Department official spoke to Mr. Mnuchin and told him that Mr. Trump's tweets and 'dysfunctional' governing style were causing stock indexes to plummet, the former official said. This person suggested that Mr. Mnuchin tell Mr. Trump to stop tweeting-advice the president frequently gets and seldom seems to heed." WSJ

-- "Do a 'marginal' number of 7-year-olds believe in Santa? That's what Trump told a SC girl," by The Post and Courier's Hannah Alani

BORDER TALES -- "Guatemalan boy, 8, dies in immigration custody after being diagnosed with a cold," by NBC's Daniella Silva

-- "CBP orders medical checks after second child's death," by AP's Nomaan Merchant in Houston: "U.S. Customs and Border Protection ordered medical checks on every child in its custody Tuesday after an 8-year-old boy from Guatemala died, marking the second death of an immigrant child in the agency's care this month." AP

Good Wednesday morning. 

BREAKING OVERNIGHT ... WAPO'S RUTH EGLASH and ERIN CUNNINGHAM in Jerusalem: "Israeli strikes hit arms depot in Damascus, Syria says": "Israel, which rarely acknowledges its military strikes in Syria, did not immediately confirm the raid. The military said Tuesday only that one of its aerial defense systems was activated 'in response to an anti-aircraft missile launched from Syria.' ... 

"This week Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that Israel could expand its military actions to prevent the growing influence of Iran and its proxies in Syria, despite a surprise U.S. decision to withdraw all of its troops from the country." WaPo
       
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THE TRUMP SLUMP ... 

-- "World Economy Is Set to Feel the Delayed Trade War Pain in 2019," by Bloomberg's Enda Curran and Katia Dmitrieva: "While 2018 was the year trade wars broke out, 2019 will be the year the global economy feels the pain. Bloomberg's Global Trade Tracker is softening amid a fading rush to front-load export orders ahead of threatened tariffs. And volumes are tipped to slow further even as the U.S. and China seek to resolve their trade spat, with companies warning of ongoing disruption. Already there are casualties. ...

"Recent data underscore concerns that trade will be a drag on American growth next year. U.S. consumers are feeling the least optimistic about the future economy in a year, while small business optimism about economic improvement fell to a two-year low and companies expect smaller profit gains in 2019." Bloomberg

-- REUTERS: "Asian stocks retreat as U.S. political tumult adds to growth worry," by Shinichi Saoshiro in Tokyo

-- "Economic growth is slowing all around the world," by WaPo's David Lynch: "A global economy that until recently was humming has broken down, a sharp contrast to the picture just a year ago when the world was experiencing its best growth since 2010 and seemed poised to do even better. Already, builders in the United States are erecting fewer single-family homes. German factories are sputtering, and in China, retail sales are growing at their slowest pace in 15 years." WaPo

KNOWING ROBERT LIGHTHIZER -- "'Ideological soulmates': How a China skeptic sold Trump on a trade war," by Andrew Restuccia and Megan Cassella

GABBY ORR: "The campaign to confirm a diplomatic novice to America's top U.N. post": "Less than two years ago, Heather Nauert was conducting interviews on 'Fox and Friends.' Now, she's preparing to navigate the world's raging geopolitical issues as one of America's top diplomats." POLITICO

         
2020 WATCH, SHERROD BROWN EDITION -- "Brown seeks Obama meeting as he considers presidential run," by Daniel Strauss: "Sen. Sherrod Brown hasn't decided whether he's running for president - but he's checking off a lot of the boxes that come along the way. The Ohio Democrat is reaching out to fellow senators and party officials in early primary and caucus states. His team is collecting r&eacute;sum&eacute;s for potential campaign workers in those states. 

"He is airing a broad campaign theme with a concise slogan - 'the dignity of work' - in a rising number of press interviews and TV appearances, and he wants to road-test the theme in speeches or town hall-style events. And Brown's staff is looking into arranging time for him to visit with former President Barack Obama, who has met with a parade of potential 2020 candidates seeking his counsel in the past year." POLITICO

-- "Black Voters, a Force in Democratic Politics, Are Ready to Make Themselves Heard," by NYT's Astead Herndon in Baltimore: "Brown, the Ohio Democrat also considering a presidential campaign, said it's important that Democratic progressives make a distinction between President Trump's 'phony populism' and a true populist message, which does not divide on racial or religious lines. 

"In an interview, Mr. Brown said those who characterize him as a politician for the 'white working class' are missing the point, because his message on the 'dignity of work' - which is inspired by a speech from Martin Luther King Jr. - specifically acknowledges the existence of discrimination and has support throughout Ohio's minority communities.

"'I never talked about the "white working class" - I talk about workers,' Mr. Brown said. 'If we talk about the minimum wage increase, or if we fight against tax cuts for the rich or if we passed better trade policy - that will help black workers every bit as much as it will help white workers. And in many cases, it will probably help them more.' 'My message is never to segment white workers and black workers except when talking about discrimination against black workers,' he said." NYT
                 PLAYBOOK READS         

PHOTO DU JOUR: President Donald Trump video conferences with members of each of the five military branches stationed around the world on Christmas. | Jacquelyn Martin/AP Photo
   
TALKER -- NYT A1: "Did a Queens Podiatrist Help Donald Trump Avoid Vietnam?" by Steve Eder

FOR YOUR RADAR -- NYT A1, "Arms Sales to Saudis Leave American Fingerprints on Yemen's Carnage," by Declan Walsh in Cairo and Eric Schmitt: "American fingerprints are all over the air war in Yemen, where errant strikes by the Saudi-led coalition have killed more than 4,600 civilians, according to a monitoring group. ... The Pentagon and State Department have denied knowing whether American bombs were used in the war's most notorious airstrikes, which have struck weddings, mosques and funerals. However, a former senior State Department official said that the United States had access to records of every airstrike over Yemen since the early days of the war, including the warplane and munitions
 used.

"At the same time, American efforts to advise the Saudis on how to protect civilians often came to naught. The Saudis ... often ignored a voluminous no-strike list. ... 'In the end, we concluded that they were just not willing to listen,' said Tom Malinowski, a former assistant secretary of state and an incoming member of Congress from New Jersey. 'They were given specific coordinates of targets that should not be struck and they continued to strike them. That struck me as a willful disregard of advice they were getting.' Yet American military support for the airstrikes continued." NYT

         
PETER CANELLOS in POLITICO Magazine, "Why We Should Worry about the Cult of RBG: The new Ruth Bader Ginsburg biopic ["On the Basis of Sex"] will galvanize her fans. They should consider whether that makes them part of the problem." Trailer

CLICKER -- ZACK STANTON and DEREK ROBERTSON in POLITICO Magazine, "The Worst Political Predictions of 2018: Spoiler alert: Everyone was wrong-again."
                 PLAYBOOKERS      
TRANSITION -- Katie Patru is leaving as deputy staff director for member services, outreach and communications for the House Administration Committee. Patru, an Eric Cantor and House Republican Conference alum, will be a VP at government affairs firm Van Scoyoc Associates.

BIRTHDAY OF THE DAY: Joe Maloney, partner at Locust Street Group, is 39. What he's read recently: "The best book I read this past year is 'The Immortal Irishman' by Timothy Egan. It's an incredible story about Thomas Meagher, an Irish revolutionary who led a failed uprising against the British. He was exiled to a Tasmanian penal colony for over two years, escaped, and made his way here to America where he became a Civil War hero. Another example of an immigrant to this country, fleeing tyranny and persecution, only to make a remarkable impact in his adopted homeland." Playbook Plus Q&A

BIRTHDAYS: Jonathan Hoffman, DHS assistant secretary of public affairs (hat tips: Lauren Claffey and Tyler Houlton) ... DOJ's Mary Blanche Hankey ... Katie Fallon, Hilton's global head of corporate affairs ... Candy Crowley ... Mike Hammer, U.S. ambassador to the Democratic Republic of the Congo, celebrating as the country enters electoral season (h/t Ben Chang) ... Jared Bernstein, senior fellow at the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities ... Noelle Clemente (h/t Amos Snead) ... Eloy Martinez, senior director of gov't relations at the American Gaming Association ... Natasha Walsh ... Andrew Weber ... Noa Meyer ... former Sen. Evan Bayh (D-Ind.) is 63 ... David Sedaris is 62 ... Kristin
 Davison ... Scott Shepard ... former California Gov. Gray Davis is 76 ... Alex Zuckerman, associate producer at CBSN ... Alison Moore ... Edelman's Peter Segall and William Gordon ... 

... Bishop Garrison, interim executive director at Truman National Security Project ... Matthew Verghese, deputy COS to Rep. Anthony Brown (D-Md.) (h/t sister Anne Verghese) ... Definers Public Affairs' Alex Angel (h/t Jeff Bechdel) ... Emily Cyr, producer for "Firing Line with Margaret Hoover," celebrating in Bryn Mawr, Pa. (h/t Eileen Dombrowski) ... Nate Baker ... Amelia Colton ... Sally Fox ... Jeff Quinton ... Matt Neufeld is 57 ... Jeremy Broggi ... Synim Rivers ... Cole Henry is 32 ... Charlie Summers is 59 ... POLITICO Europe's Cl&eacute;mence Vatier ... Rob Pyron ... Joe Mosby ... Jane Song ... Ellen Field ... Will Heyniger is 56 ... Dave Nieuwstraten ... Jennifer Duck ... Sarada
 Peri ... Scott Lear ... Joe Deoudes ... Jill Cooper Udall ... Holly Shannon ... Jon Henke ... Dillan Siegler ... Courtney Williams ... Georgiana Cavendish (h/t Teresa Vilmain)
       
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