Subject: POLITICO Playbook: Is this the dark before the light?
From: "Anna Palmer Jake Sherman Daniel Lippman" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 07 Jan 2019 05:11:12 -0600
List-Id: <1376319.xt.local>

Presented by Better Medicare Alliance: Playbook is POLITICO's must-read briefing on what's driving the day                Jan 07, 2019 View in browser                   
 By Anna Palmer, Jake Sherman and Daniel Lippman 
         
Presented by
                    
Listen to today's Audio Briefing
              DRIVING THE DAY      
SHUTDOWN ... DAY 17 ... The one positive element our sources took out of yesterday's meeting at the White House is that this government funding stalemate needs to get much worse before it gets solved, and that is what began happening yesterday.

DEMOCRATS were put off when, at the beginning of the meeting, the White House did not have the budgetary information ready that they had asked for. Democrats complained that it took 45 minutes for the administration to come up with it. Meanwhile, Republicans say that VP MIKE PENCE simply asked for OMB to dig up more information because Democrats were asking for it. They had to produce the information in one day. 

THE WHITE HOUSE sent a letter to the Hill, detailing what it wants as part of this funding bill. The Trump administration is asking for $5.7 billion for a "steel barrier," which is doubling down on a position that Democrats have rejected countless times already. 

SOMETHING ELSE THAT STUCK OUT: The administration is looking for $798 million more for detention beds. Democrats have been trying to slash the bed funding number for years. Republicans believe more beds are needed because more people are crossing the border illegally. The letter ... Marianne LeVine and Quint Forgey on the request

HOUSE DEMOCRATS are going to spend time this week passing individual appropriations bills in an attempt to reopen government. Republicans have said they don't intend to reopen government in a piecemeal fashion. 

IT BEARS REPEATING ... THIS IS A BIT OF A PHONY FIGHT and it is mostly a political problem at the moment, if you ask almost anyone involved. America has a physical barrier in places, and Congress has funded versions of a physical barrier for years. If you put Republicans and Democrats on truth serum and we took a step outside this political vortex we're in, lawmakers would concede that there are places that a wall-like structure is needed, and other places where technology would suffice. The wall has become a symbol for both parties. 

THERE IS NO WHITE HOUSE-HILL MEETING scheduled at the moment. 

BY THE END OF THE DAY, this will be the second-longest government shutdown in U.S. history. If it lasts to Saturday, Trump's Washington will be the owner of the longest government shutdown ever.

PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP upon landing at the White House from Camp David: "I informed my folks to say that we'll build a steel barrier. Steel. It'll be made out of steel. It'll be less obtrusive, and it'll be stronger. But it'll be less obtrusive, stronger, and we're able to use our great companies to make it, by using steel. ... They don't like concrete, so we'll give them steel. Steel is fine. Steel is actually -- steel is actually more expensive than concrete, but it will look beautiful and it's very strong. It's actually stronger."

-- TRUMP ALSO said that he's considering building the wall as part of a national emergency. He said government workers who are furloughed "want to make sure that we have a strong border."

Good Monday morning. 

AP'S CATHERINE LUCEY: "Analysis: Trump's unpredictable negotiating style faces test"

THE IMPACT ... WAPO'S BOB COSTA, JULIET EILPERIN, DAMIAN PALETTA and NICK MIROFF: "As shutdown drags on, Trump officials make new offer, seek novel ways to cope with its impacts": "The administration has also signaled it would be willing to restore some version of an Obama-era program that allowed children in Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador to apply for refugee resettlement in the United States, according to an official with knowledge of the proposal. ... 

"Treasury Department and Internal Revenue Service officials are trying to determine whether they will be able to pay tax refunds next month, despite the fact that they said last year they would be prohibited from doing so in the event of a government shutdown.

"And the National Park Service, under pressure because of deteriorating conditions at some of its most popular parks, authorized tapping entrance fees to pay for trash pickup and other operations that have halted as a result of the shutdown - a move some critics said may be illegal." WaPo

-- "U.S. towns with federal workers brace for impact as the shutdown continues," by Heather May, Annie Gowen and Joel Achenbach in WaPo
       
A message from Better Medicare Alliance:
 
Without action from Congress, 21 million seniors and individuals with disabilities will take a hit. The 2020 Health Insurance Tax (HIT) would raise premiums or reduce benefits for seniors and low-income beneficiaries on Medicare Advantage. Congress, don't let our seniors down. Delay the 2020 HIT now. Learn More.
         
BOLTON ABROAD ... ELISE LABOTT in Jerusalem: "Bolton reassures a nervous Israel about Trump's Syria plan": "National security adviser John Bolton on Sunday sought to reassure Israeli leaders who fear that President Donald Trump's plan to withdraw U.S. troops from Syria might increase the risk of war with Iran. Bolton held meetings here with top security and intelligence officials Sunday to help reassure Israel that the U.S. intends to protect it from Iranian aggression even after the 2,000 U.S. troops stationed in Syria, where Iran has a growing military presence, are gone.

"The meetings were part of what U.S. officials, diplomats and outside experts called a damage-control tour by the top Trump adviser - who himself disagreed with the president's December troop withdrawal decision - in part because Bolton believes the U.S. must challenge Iran's influence in the war-ravaged country." POLITICO

THE NEW HOUSE MAJORITY -- "House Democrats prepare fusillade of Trump investigations," by Adam Cancryn: "Democrats want to investigate the Trump Hotel deal and President Donald Trump's taxes. They want to haul up conflicted Cabinet officials and dig into controversial changes to the census and food stamps. They want to put Education Secretary Betsy DeVos under oath and investigate child detentions at the border.

"The threat of subpoenas, investigations and oversight hearings will dominate the new House Democratic majority agenda, targeting the White House's most controversial policies and personnel, spanning immigration, the environment, trade and of course, the biggest question of them all: Russian collusion." POLITICO

2020 WATCH -- ALEX ISENSTADT: "Trump campaign moves to stave off mayhem at 2020 convention": "President Donald Trump is tightening his iron grip on the Republican Party, launching an elaborate effort to stamp out any vestiges of GOP opposition that might embarrass him at the 2020 Republican convention.

"The president's reelection campaign is intent on avoiding the kind of circus that unfolded on the convention floor in 2016, when Never Trump Republicans loudly protested his nomination before a national TV audience. The effort comes as party elites like Utah Sen. Mitt Romney are openly questioning Trump's fitness for the job, and it's meant to to ensure that delegates to next year's Charlotte convention are presidential loyalists - not anti-Trump activists looking to create a stir.

"Shortly before the holidays, Trump political aides Bill Stepien and Justin Clark, the organizers of the project, held a national conference call with Republican state party chairs, who traditionally play an outsize role in picking delegates. Last week, the two advisers began having one-on-one calls with the state chairs to describe the campaign's mission and discuss various circumstances in each state." POLITICO

-- NYT'S JONATHAN MARTIN and ALEX BURNS: "Biden Sees Himself as Democrats' Best Hope in 2020, Allies Say": "Former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. is in the final stages of deciding whether to run for president and has told allies he is skeptical the other Democrats eyeing the White House can defeat President Trump, an assessment that foreshadows a clash between the veteran Washington insider and the more liberal and fresh-faced contenders for the party's 2020 nomination. 

"Many Democratic voters, and nearly all major Democratic donors, are keenly interested in Mr. Biden's plans because of their consuming focus on finding a candidate who can beat a president they believe represents a threat to American democracy.

"But there is also a rising demand in the party for a more progressive standard-bearer who reflects the increasingly diverse Democratic coalition. Mr. Biden would instantly be the early front-runner if he ran, but he would have to bridge divides in a primary that would test whether Democrats are willing to embrace a moderate white man in his 70s if they view him as the best bet to oust Mr. Trump." NYT

-- ELIZABETH WHO? ... BURGESS EVERETT: "Senate Dems keep distance from Warren campaign": "Even Sen. Ed Markey isn't ready to endorse his fellow Massachusetts Democrat, at least not yet. 'When she is moving forward, we're going to be talking, 'Markey said as he prepared for Warren's swearing in to another term in the Senate. 'I've just got to get today done.'

"Warren's hard-edged brand of progressive politics has annoyed some of her colleagues at times, but the lack of support from her caucus isn't personal. With a wide open Democratic primary, including perhaps a half-dozen of Warren's own colleagues set to join the race, there's no sense in getting out ahead of anyone, according to a dozen Democratic senators from across the ideological spectrum." POLITICO

SCOOP -- "Posing as Prohibitionists, 2nd Effort Used Online Fakery in Alabama Race," by NYT's Scott Shane and Alan Blinder: "The 'Dry Alabama' Facebook page, illustrated with stark images of car wrecks and videos of families ruined by drink, had a blunt message: Alcohol is the devil's work, and the state should ban it entirely. Along with a companion Twitter feed, the Facebook page appeared to be the work of Baptist teetotalers who supported the Republican, Roy S. Moore, in the 2017 Alabama Senate race. 'Pray for Roy Moore,' one tweet exhorted.

"In fact, the Dry Alabama campaign, not previously reported, was the stealth creation of progressive Democrats who were out to defeat Mr. Moore - the second such secret effort to be unmasked. In a political bank shot made in the last two weeks of the campaign, they thought associating Mr. Moore with calls for a statewide alcohol ban would hurt him with moderate, business-oriented Republicans and assist the Democrat, Doug Jones, who won the special election by a hair-thin margin. 

"Matt Osborne, a veteran progressive activist who worked on the project, said he hoped that such deceptive tactics would someday be banned from American politics. But in the meantime, he said, he believes that Republicans are using such trickery and that Democrats cannot unilaterally give it up." NYT

-- "Secret campaign to use Russian-inspired tactics in 2017 Ala. election stirs anxiety for Democrats," by WaPo's Craig Timberg, Tony Romm, Aaron Davis and Elizabeth Dwoskin
           
A message from Better Medicare Alliance:

 
21 million seniors will face higher premiums if the 2020 Health Insurance Tax (HIT) is not delayed. Congress, delay the 2020 health insurance tax now. Learn More.
         
THE JUICE ... 

-- FIRST IN PLAYBOOK: HAZEN MARSHALL and MONICA POPP are opening a government affairs and consulting firm, Marshall & Popp. Marshall most recently worked as policy director for Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.). McConnell has said of Marshall that he "has stood squarely in the center of every consequential decision and piece of legislation that Congress has taken up" during his time in McConnell's office. 

Popp most recently served as chief of staff to then-Senate Majority Whip John Cornyn (R-Texas), where she was his chief policy strategist and was in charge of building consensus for the Senate Republican Conference's initiatives. Cornyn has described Popp as "exactly the type of person you need to have in your corner."

-- JEREMY DEUTSCH, the outgoing chief of the House GOP Conference, is starting Capitol Venture LLC, a strategic consulting and government affairs firm.

TRUMP'S MONDAY -- The president will have lunch with VP Mike Pence.
                 PLAYBOOK READS         

PHOTO DU JOUR: Waves crash into the seawall in Beirut, Lebanon, on Sunday as a strong storm battered the mountains and coast, paralyzing parts of the Mediterranean country. | Bilal Hussein/AP Photo
   
IN THE GOLDEN STATE ... CARLA MARINUCCI in San Francisco: "'More aggressive and in your face': Newsom takes power in California": "Gavin Newsom sweeps into the California governor's mansion Monday hinting that he'll take a more confrontational posture toward Donald Trump in Washington, but his biggest challenge may be dealing with a friendly Democratic supermajority in Sacramento." POLITICO

-- JOHN HARRIS in Sacramento for POLITICO Magazine: "Jerry Brown's Midnight in America": "During an interview with POLITICO at the governor's mansion here in late December, Brown was indeed serious. He is not full of warm words about the native wisdom of the people: They strike him as scared, easily prone to distraction and cynical manipulation. He is not more optimistic than ever: He is worried the planet is hurtling toward catastrophe. How does he see the world in 2019? 'Dangerous-and we're lucky to be alive,' Brown said, his voice rising. ...

"[A]s he sees it, America's entire political culture-elected officials, the news media, intellectuals-seems blithely disengaged from the magnitude of the peril, endlessly distracted by trivia. On climate change, nuclear proliferation and the new awareness that technology can be an instrument of oppression as well as individual empowerment, he continued: 'The threat is huge; the response is puny; and the consciousness, the awareness is pathetically small.'" POLITICO

FOR YOUR RADAR -- American ISIS Member Caught on Syrian Battlefield, Militia Says," by NYT's Rukmini Callimachi: "A 34-year-old man from Houston who is said to have sent a r&eacute;sum&eacute; and cover letter seeking a job with the Islamic State has been seized on a battlefield in Syria, an American-backed militia fighting the militants said Sunday." NYT

-- "Germany Reportedly Seeks U.S. Assistance After Hacking Breach," by Bloomberg's Patrick Donahue: "German authorities sought help from the U.S. National Security Agency after discovering that hackers had released private data linked to Chancellor Angela Merkel and hundreds of other German politicians, Bild newspaper reported. 

"Responding to the biggest data dump of its kind in the country, German investigators wanted the U.S. intelligence agency to lean on Twitter Inc. to shut down profiles with links to the data, Bild said, citing unidentified security officials. German authorities argued that U.S. citizens were among thousands of people exposed by the data dump." Bloomberg 
           
A message from Better Medicare Alliance:

 
Congress can protect seniors from increased costs. Act NOW. Stop the 2020 Health Insurance Tax. Learn More.
         
MEDIAWATCH -- "Susan Zirinsky will replace David Rhodes as CBS News president, becoming first woman to lead division," by L.A. Times' Stephen Battaglio: "Zirinsky had been a leading candidate to become the executive producer of the network's newsmagazine '60 Minutes,' replacing the program's ousted leader, Jeff Fager. 

"But CBS Corp. acting Chief Executive Joseph Ianniello wanted to put Zirinsky in a larger role as Rhodes, who has been president of CBS News since 2011, is nearing the end of his contract and indicated he was ready to make an exit. He had been brought in by former CBS CEO Les Moonves, who was recently stripped of his $120-million severance over allegations of sexual misconduct after a four-month investigation." LAT

-- NICK NIEDZWIADEK will be the co-author of POLITICO's New York Playbook with Laura Nahmias. He is currently the Albany health care reporter.
                 PLAYBOOKERS      
SPOTTED at the Golden Globes HBO party: Jon Favreau and Emily Black, Jon Lovett, Tommy Vietor, Hanna Koch, Jeremy Bernard, Kara Swisher, Amanda Katz, Dana Bash and Spencer Garrett, Marc Adelman, DeeDee Myers and Todd Purdum, Lawrence O'Donnell and Tammy Haddad. Pic of Bash and Adelman on the red carpet

TRANSITIONS ... Brandon Gassaway is joining the DNC as national press secretary. He most recently served as press secretary for Virginia Sen. Tim Kaine's 2018 re-election campaign. ... House GOP Conference staff: Kara Ahern will be chief of staff, Jeremy Adler communications director, Caroline Boothe member services director and Ali Pardo press secretary. ... 

... Rachel Hoff starts today as policy director at the Ronald Reagan Institute. She is the former communications director and policy adviser for the late Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.).

ENGAGED -- Carol Lee got engaged over the holidays to Ryan Harmon. The two were introduced by their friends, Fernando Lujan and Brianna Keilar, at a barbecue. Ryan is an Army officer. Carol is a national political reporter for NBC and previously covered the White House for the WSJ and is also a POLITICO alum. The wedding is set for June.

BIRTHWEEK (was Saturday): German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier turned 63

BIRTHDAY OF THE DAY: Katie Couric. How she got her start in journalism: "My father covered politics for the Atlanta Constitution after working for the Macon Telegraph and editing the newspaper at Mercer University. He saw that I was a good writer from an early age and a master procrastinator who worked well under pressure. ... He encouraged me to get internships at local radio stations during the summer while I attended UVA. I earned extra money working at Gifford's ice cream parlor and Pizza Hut but discovered the hospitality industry wasn't for me. (Especially after getting fired from Pizza Hut.)" Playbook Plus Q&A

BIRTHDAYS: Jordan Karem ... Dave Banks, EVP at American Council for Capital Formation and adjunct research scholar at Columbia (hat tip: Chrissy Harbin) ... Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) is 56. He's "celebrating with family, friends and staff. A dinner in Kentucky, followed by cake in D.C." (h/t Sergio Gor) ... Sen. John Thune (R-S.D.) is 58 ... John Reiss, EP of NBC's "Meet the Press" ... Jann Wenner is 73 ... Monument Policy Group founder and partner Stewart Verdery is 52. He's celebrating by rooting with his two brothers for their Clemson Tigers at the National Championship game in Santa Clara (h/t Ed Cash) ... The Atlantic's Conor Friedersdorf, founding editor of the Best of Journalism
 newsletter, is 39 ... POLITICO's Jonathan Clark ... Taylor Gee ... Holly Shulman of the Center for Global Development ... Max Mallory, alum of Hamilton Place Strategies ... 

... Megan Clarke, VP of guest booking at Fox News (h/t Lauren Fritts) ... Rep. Jeff Duncan (R-S.C.) is 53 ... former Rep. Loretta Sanchez (D-Calif.) is 6-0 ... Adam Entous, staff writer at The New Yorker ... Yohannes Abraham ... Ashley Callen ... Conor Skelding ... Britta Ritter-Armour of WeWork ... Monica Lee ... Maura Keefe, COS for Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.) (h/t Jon Haber) ... CMS' Ernie Tai is 65 ... Peter Vaghi ... Rishi Sahgal ... APCO's Tim Kraus ... Alex Pazuchanics ... Meghan Cline ... Cory Crowley ... Garth Spencer ... Michael Longo is 26 ... Chris McCreight ... Matt McKinney ... Andrea Elizabeth Hailey ... Kelly Rodr&iacute;guez ... Eric Pfeiffer ... Axios' Ben Geman ...
 Facebook's Nick Clegg is 52 ... Brianna Labuskes ... Andrea Elizabeth Hailey ... Jim Bohannon ... Jeff Gulko ... William Flynn ... Brett Shogren ... Brian Summers ... Neal Osborne is 3-0 ... Yvonne Conza ... Bill Shoehigh (h/ts Teresa Vilmain)
       
A message from Better Medicare Alliance:
 
21 million beneficiaries receive quality, affordable health coverage from Medicare Advantage. The 2020 Health Insurance Tax (HIT) will make beneficiaries pay more for their coverage, which they simply cannot afford. For 2019, the tax was delayed, resulting in lower costs for seniors, individuals with disabilities, and low-income Medicare beneficiaries. Without delay of the tax for 2020, these beneficiaries will pay the price. Congress, time is running out. Delay the 2020 health insurance tax now and preserve seniors' access to Medicare Advantage. Learn More.
                        
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