Subject: Playbook PM: The theatrical shutdown
From: "Anna Palmer Jake Sherman Daniel Lippman" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 16 Jan 2019 11:52:04 -0600
List-Id: <1376319.xt.local>

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SPEAKER NANCY PELOSI sent a letter to PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP this morning asking him to delay his State of the Union address because of the government shutdown. Pelosi cited security concerns: Secret Service and DHS have been impacted by the shutdown and it could hurt planning and protection. There is massive security for the State of the Union, since much of the government is under one roof in the Capitol. The letter ... More from Heather Caygle and Rachael Bade

BUT ... THE MOVE is also a gentle reminder just how much power Pelosi has under the dome. The delay also comes with the additional political benefit of taking away away a made-for-TV moment: Trump's ability to use the speech as a platform to lambast lawmakers over border security as they sit in the audience. REPUBLICANS had hoped the president would be able to make his case about his border policies during the speech.

A FEW OTHER THOUGHTS ... PELOSI is basically uninviting him, but doing so gently. The House and Senate must jointly adopt a resolution to schedule the State of the Union. So without that, he can't come. Neither chamber has adopted the resolution yet.

... THIS IS REAL ... A PLANNING MEETING scheduled for today between White House, Capitol Hill, Secret Service and Capitol Police was canceled.

IT'S COMPLETELY POSSIBLE that Trump decides to give a speech elsewhere that night.

THE THEATRICAL SHUTDOWN ... Washington politics is always marked by silly acts of theatrics -- stacking bills on hand carts, filibusters that go nowhere, standing at press conferences with a group of people behind you. But this shutdown has gotten Broadway-esque.

CONSIDER ...

-- A GROUP OF HOUSE DEMOCRATIC FRESHMEN marched outside in the cold, to the Senate on Tuesday to confront SENATE MAJORITY LEADER MITCH MCCONNELL in his Russell office. The only thing is he doesn't work in that office. They quickly switched to go to his Capitol office. When they got to the Senate side of the building, they left McConnell's office, almost went to the Senate floor, but then quickly pivoted back to the House side of the building. If they wanted, they could've waited on the floor for him, since they have those privileges.

-- THE PROBLEM SOLVERS CAUCUS met with the president in the Situation Room this morning. That's a room reserved for meetings including information of the highest sensitivity. 

-- THE PRESIDENT is noting on repeat that he has hardly left the White House in the past month.

-- SENATE MINORITY LEADER CHUCK SCHUMER added to the spectacle, rallying House Democrats at a caucus meeting this morning. 

THE PRESIDENT'S LATEST SHUTDOWN TWEETS -- @realDonaldTrump at 7:33 a.m.: "There are now 77 major or significant Walls built around the world, with 45 countries planning or building Walls. Over 800 miles of Walls have been built in Europe since only 2015. They have all been recognized as close to 100% successful. Stop the crime at our Southern Border!"

... at 7:49 a.m.: "It is becoming more and more obvious that the Radical Democrats are a Party of open borders and crime. They want nothing to do with the major Humanitarian Crisis on our Southern Border. #2020!"

BURGESS EVERETT: "Bipartisan Senate group presses Trump to end shutdown": "Senators in both parties are racing to deliver a letter to President Donald Trump indicating that if the government reopens they are willing to work on a border security package with the president, according to multiple people familiar with the matter. ...

"The letter says the group is 'committed to resolving our current budget stalemate by strengthening border security and ending the government shutdown,' according to a draft obtained by POLITICO. It includes an assurance that the administration's $5.7 billion budget request would be taken up in the relevant congressional committees." POLITICO ... The letter

-- MOST REPUBLICANS HAVE held firm against opening the government without a wall resolution.

26 DAYS IN ... THERE IS NO SIGN of any progress to end the government shutdown.
       
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STEVEN SHEPARD: "Poll: Slight majority opposes Trump emergency declaration for wall funding": "Only 36 percent of voters say they support Trump's re-allocating money to pay for the border wall through a national emergency, while 51 percent oppose such a declaration. ...

"Nearly half of voters, 49 percent, say Trump is mostly to blame for the shutdown, up slightly from 47 percent last week ... Only a third, 33 percent, blame Democrats in Congress, and 5 percent blame congressional Republicans ... Fully 44 percent of voters support construction of a border wall, slightly fewer than the 47 percent who oppose it." POLITICO

-- FIVETHIRTYEIGHT'S tracker has TRUMP'S disapproval rating at 54.8 percent -- his highest since February 2018. The calculation

Good Wednesday afternoon. SPOTTED at the Trump Hotel last night: U.S. Ambassador to Germany Ric Grenell, Eric and Lara Trump, Kelly Love, Shaylyn Hynes, Cliff Sims, Rep. Lee Zeldin (R-N.Y.), Georgette Mosbacher and Ed McMullen. 

HEADS UP -- WSJ'S THOMAS GROVE in Moscow: "U.S.-Russia Nuclear-Arms Pact Moves Closer to Collapse"

WAR REPORT -- ISIS ISN'T GONE YET ... CBS: "U.S. troops killed in Syria suicide attack claimed by ISIS": "U.S. troops were among those killed in an attack in northern Syria Wednesday -- the same day that Vice President Mike Pence claimed ISIS, which claimed responsibility for the attack, 'has been defeated.' ... A U.S. military official also confirmed to CBS News senior national defense correspondent David Martin reports by Kurdish media outlets that at least two Americans were among the dead in the city of Manbij, not far from the Turkish border, after an explosion hit a coalition convoy.

"The U.S. military has not said how many Americans were among the bombing victims, but at least one report said as many as four U.S. service members were killed. If true, Martin notes that it would be the single largest loss of U.S. life in Syria since American forces were deployed there in 2015." CBS

THE SHUTDOWN IMPACT ... LIZ CRAMPTON: "USDA reopens many field offices for 3 days to help farmers amid shutdown": "USDA Secretary Sonny Perdue announced today that 2,500 employees will be called back to work amid the partial government shutdown to provide limited services for farmers and ranchers.

"Certain offices of USDA's Farm Service Agency across the country will be open on Jan. 17, 22 and 28 to help farmers with existing loans and tax paperwork, the department said. The furloughed employees will temporarily return to also help farmers process payments made before the end of 2018, continue expired financing statements and open mail to 'identify priority items.'" POLITICO 

-- WSJ'S ANDREW DUEHREN: "Shutdown Forces Federal Contractors to Take Drastic Steps": "Low- and middle-wage employees are looking for other work and applying for unemployment insurance. Small- and medium-size firms have stopped paying employees and may have to fire some people, while the financial institutions that support those companies are assuming greater risk. Even large, publicly-funded and multinational firms are weighing the possibility of sending workers home without pay as they face cash flow shortages.

"Defense and military contracting, the largest part of the industry, has been shielded from much of the shutdown's impact because Congress has funded the Defense Department. But for contractors working with the dozens of other agencies affected by the shutdown, the prospect of a continued funding impasse is bleak." WSJ 

-- "A Typical Federal Worker Has Missed $5,000 in Pay From the Shutdown So Far," by NYT's Jugal Patel: NYT 

THE INVESTIGATIONS ... THE NEW MAJORITY -- ANDREW DESIDERIO and HEATHER CAYGLE: "New Dems join Intelligence Committee as Russia probe restarts": "The newest Democratic members on the select committee are Reps. Sean Patrick Maloney (D-N.Y.), Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-Ill.), Val Demings (D-Fla.), and Peter Welch (D-Vt.), multiple sources confirmed to POLITICO." POLITICO 

HMM ... TRUMP INC.: WAPO'S JONATHAN O'CONNELL and DAVID FAHRENTHOLD: "T-Mobile announced a merger needing Trump administration approval. The next day, 9 executives had reservations at Trump's hotel": "These visits highlight a stark reality in Washington, unprecedented in modern American history. Trump the president works at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue. Trump the businessman owns a hotel at 1100 Pennsylvania.

"Countries, interest groups and companies like T-Mobile - whose future will be shaped by the administration's choices - are free to stop at both and pay the president's company while also meeting with officials in his government. Such visits raise questions about whether patronizing Trump's private business is viewed as a way to influence public policy, critics said." WaPo 

THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION -- "At confirmation hearing, Trump's EPA pick vows to advance a deregulatory agenda," by WaPo's Brady Dennis and Juliet Eilperin

-- ANTHONY ADRAGNA: "Wheeler: Climate change a 'huge issue' but not a crisis"

ON THE WORLD STAGE -- "Russia's Lavrov Mocks Suggestion That Trump Worked for the Kremlin," by Bloomberg's Ilya Arkhipov and Henry Meyer: "'That's stupid,' President Vladimir Putin's foreign policy aide, Yuri Ushakov, told reporters in Moscow on Wednesday. 'How can the president of the United States be an agent of another country? Just think about that.' ... 

"[Foreign Minister Sergei] Lavrov accused American media of 'lowering their journalistic standards' in coverage of the issue and denounced U.S. lawmakers for challenging Trump's right to conduct foreign policy. 'This right is under attack from Congress and this doesn't make these attacks constitutional or less illegal.'" Bloomberg 

-- "North Korean Negotiator Expected to Visit U.S. as Relations Thaw," by WSJ's Dasl Yoon and Andrew Jeong in Seoul: "North Korea and the U.S. appeared to be moving toward a rekindling of denuclearization talks, setting the stage for a widely expected second summit between the two [countries'] leaders." WSJ

TRADE WARS -- WSJ'S JOANNA SUGDEN in London: "Trade War Tops Global Risks for Business Leaders": "The threat of a full-blown global trade war and rising political tensions between world powers are the dominant global risks, according to a report by the World Economic Forum ahead of its annual gathering in Davos, Switzerland, next week. ...

"The report, which analyzed global risks and trends over a 10-year horizon, said that the rate of global growth appeared to have peaked and the slowdown in China's economy was of particular concern." WSJ 

2020 WATCH -- ELENA SCHNEIDER and NICK NIEDZWIADEK in Brunswick, N.Y.: "Gillibrand rejects super PAC support": "The New York Democrat joins a handful of other likely presidential candidates who have made the same commitment, as Democratic activists place increasing importance on how candidates finance their campaigns. ...

"Speaking at a diner near where she'll headquarter her campaign, Gillibrand said she has the 'fearless determination' to take on President Donald Trump and addressed two potential stumbling blocks for her presidential bid: her demand in 2017 that Minnesota Sen. Al Franken resign following accusations of sexual misconduct, and her promise to serve out her current term in the Senate, where she was just reelected in 2018." POLITICO 

MEDIAWATCH -- Aram Roston is joining Reuters as a national security reporter. He previously was an investigative reporter at BuzzFeed.

-- Per Morning Media: "EXAMINER EXODUS: Three reporters have recently left or are leaving the Washington Examiner to go to other news organizations or into communications. Travis Tritten, who was a defense and national security reporter at the Examiner, has joined Bloomberg Government to expand their defense and national security coverage at the Pentagon. 

"Robert Donachie, who was a White House correspondent for the Examiner, went to Capitol Hill to become communications director for Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas). Business reporter Joe Williams is joining Fox Business to cover corporate America and the financial markets."

SPOTTED: Sens. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) and Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) dining at Capital Grille on Tuesday. Pic ... Air Force Secretary Heather Wilson entering the Rayburn Building on Tuesday. Pic

SPOTTED at the New Ambassadors Reception at Meridian International Center on Tuesday night: John Negroponte, Ray Washburne, Air Force Secretary Heather Wilson, Rep. Mark Meadows (R-N.C.) and Debbie Meadows, Tom Shannon, John Phillips and Linda Douglass, Megan Beyer, Ed Luce, Josh Rogin, Kevin Sullivan, Drew Maloney, Michelle Fenty, Ann Stock, Capricia Marshall, James Jones, Tod Sedgwick, Mark Gilbert, Christina Sevilla, Clara Brillembourg, Missy Owens, Will Bohlen, Nathan Daschle, Alphonso Jackson, Danielle Burr, Robb Watters, Conrad Cafritz and Sasha Johnson.

TRANSITIONS -- Courtney Alexander will be political director for Republican Louisiana gubernatorial candidate Rep. Ralph Abraham's campaign. She previously was communications director for American Action Network and the Congressional Leadership Fund. ... Nancy Fox is now a principal at Winning Strategies Washington. She was previously staff director of the House Appropriations Committee.
           
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