Subject: Playbook PM: What the shutdown tea leaves tell us
From: "Anna Palmer Jake Sherman Daniel Lippman" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 18 Jan 2019 12:08:39 -0600
List-Id: <1376319.xt.local>

Presented by the National Retail Federation: Playbook is POLITICO's must-read briefing on what's driving the day                Jan 18, 2019 View in browser                   
 By Jake Sherman, Anna Palmer, Daniel Lippman, Garrett Ross and Eli Okun 
         
Presented by
           
NEW ... ACTING OMB DIRECTOR RUSS VOUGHT has issued official guidance about congressional travel during the shutdown. The guidance

READING THE SHUTDOWN TEA LEAVES ... VP MIKE PENCE and White House aide JARED KUSHNER met with SENATE MAJORITY LEADER MITCH MCCONNELL in the Capitol yesterday, the first such meeting in a few days. So it's clear some new effort is afoot to break the gridlock of what's now approaching a monthlong shutdown. 

-- WHAT CAN IT BE? ... We keep hearing that the administration is willing to throw some immigration concessions in the mix to get government open. What will they be? Who knows. PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP is notoriously finicky when it comes to immigration reform -- he has said, at times, that he is in favor of a bipartisan immigration reform process, but quickly retreats from that position. He's also embraced hard-line immigration policies that make his words seem meaningless.

-- THE HANG-UPS: Democrats will need the government open to negotiate. Republicans don't want government open to negotiate.

-- ONE THING WE HAVE NOT SEEN: What happens if Republicans start some process to open the government in the Senate? Will there be pressure for Democrats to go along? Democratic sources tell us no.

-- MCCONNELL to BURGESS EVERETT last night: Burgess asked if there was any progress. "We're still obviously discussing the situation and if I have any news to make I'll let you know."

THANKS, MITCH! Good Friday afternoon. PROGRAMMING NOTE -- Playbook PM will be dark on Monday in observance of Martin Luther King Jr. Day. We'll be back in your inboxes Tuesday afternoon. The AM edition will still publish Monday morning. Sign up here

CLICKER -- RUAIRI ARRIETA-KENNA and JASON GROW in POLITICO Magazine: "'We Call Ourselves the Badasses': Meet the New Women of Congress" 

HEATHER CAYGLE: "Pelosi aide accuses Trump team of security threat by leaking new Afghanistan plans": "'In light of the grave threats caused by the President's action, the delegation has decided to postpone the trip so as not to further endanger our troops and security personnel, or the other travelers on the flights,' [Pelosi's deputy chief of staff Drew] Hammill, said in a statement Friday morning.

"It would have been extraordinarily rare for the speaker - who is second in line to the presidency - to fly commercial overseas on an official congressional trip, particularly to a war zone. But Hammill said she and other senior lawmakers in the delegation were initially going to move forward with the trip until details of their revised plans were also made public." POLITICO 

-- PELOSI, speaking to reporters today: "It was kind of a funny letter -- saying seven days, going to Egypt -- somebody didn't tell him it was a quick weekend trip, but nonetheless, that served his purpose. ... The fact that they would leak that we were flying commercial is a danger not only to us but to other people flying commercially. It's very irresponsible on the part of the president."

THE PRESIDENT'S LATEST SHUTDOWN TWEETS -- @realDonaldTrump at 9 a.m.: "Why would Nancy Pelosi leave the Country with other Democrats on a seven day excursion when 800,000 great people are not getting paid. Also, could somebody please explain to Nancy & her 'big donors' in wine country that people working on farms (grapes) will have easy access in!"

... at 10:58 a.m.: "Never seen the Republican Party so unified. No 'Cave' on the issue of Border and National Security. A beautiful thing to see, especially when you hear the new rhetoric spewing from the mouths of the Democrats who talk Open Border, High Taxes and Crime. Stop Criminals & Drugs now!"
       
A message from the National Retail Federation:
 
Do tariffs help American businesses and consumers? Anyone? Anyone? No, they don't. They almost certainly make things worse. Scroll down to learn more. www.tariffsarebad.com
         
THE IMPACT -- NYT'S TOM KAPLAN: "Federal Courts, Running Out of Money, Brace for Shutdown's Pain": "Already, courts have been cutting down on expenses like travel and new hiring. Court-appointed private lawyers who represent indigent defendants have been working without pay since late December, according to the Administrative Office of the United States Courts, which provides support for the court system.

"There have been other disruptions. The Justice Department is among the executive branch agencies whose funding has lapsed, and at the department's request, some federal courts have issued orders postponing civil cases in which the Justice Department is a party while the shutdown continues, according to the administrative office." NYT 

-- BLOOMBERG'S MIKE DORNING (@MikeDorning): "BREAKING: New York Federal Reserve President John Williams says shutdown could cut U.S. economic growth by 1 percentage point".

-- "Democratic governors seek unemployment benefits for shutdown workers," by Rebecca Rainey

-- JOSH GERSTEIN: "Shutdown slows court-ordered inquiry into Clinton email setup" 

THE INVESTIGATIONS ... QUINT FORGEY and REBECCA MORIN: "Democrats vow to investigate whether Trump told Cohen to lie before Congress": "Leading Democrats on Friday vowed to investigate whether President Donald Trump instructed Michael Cohen to lie before Congress about negotiations for a Trump Tower in Moscow, after a bombshell report alleged that special counsel Robert Mueller has hard evidence to back up that claim. ...

"The explosive claim further raises the stakes of Mueller's investigation, which is reportedly nearing its conclusion and has resulted in guilty pleas for multiple Trump associates. It also comes as Cohen prepares to testify publicly to the House Oversight Committee on Feb. 7, and as Democrats are flexing their new oversight powers after taking control of the House earlier this month." POLITICO 

-- REBECCA MORIN: "Trump dismisses BuzzFeed report, accuses Cohen of trying to reduce sentence" 

-- "Supreme Court to discuss Mueller-related mystery case behind closed doors Friday," by CNN's Ariane de Vogue: "The discussion is slated to occur during the justices' regularly scheduled conference where the justices will also consider pending petitions on blockbuster issues such as DACA, the ban on transgender people in the military, abortion and the Second Amendment.

"The case concerns an unnamed foreign government-owned corporation that is fighting a subpoena request from a DC-based grand jury. Lower courts have ruled that the company must turn over the information and imposed fines for every day it failed to do so." CNN 

TRADE WARS -- "China Offers Path to Eliminate U.S. Trade Imbalance, Sources Say" - Bloomberg: "China has offered to go on a six-year buying spree to ramp up imports from the U.S., in a move that would reconfigure the relationship between the world's two largest economies, according to officials familiar with the negotiations, Bloomberg News reports. 

"By increasing annual goods imports from the U.S. by a combined value of more than $1 trillion, China would seek to reduce its trade surplus -- which last year stood at $323 billion -- to zero by 2024, one of the people said. ... The offer, made during talks in Beijing earlier this month, was met with skepticism by U.S. negotiators who nonetheless asked the Chinese to do even better, demanding that the imbalance be cleared in the next two years, the people said." Bloomberg 

-- WSJ'S EMRE PEKER in Brussels: "EU's Narrow Focus for U.S. Trade Talks Risks Trans-Atlantic Clash": "The European Union made its opening bid in trade talks with the U.S., outlining a narrow goal of slashing tariffs on industrial goods, including motor vehicles, that sets the bloc on a collision course with Washington's broader agenda.

"The EU's negotiating mandate comes amid criticism from some U.S. officials that Brussels is dragging its feet on trade talks in the hope of waiting out the Trump administration. ... Aside from cars, the EU is proposing a limited pact. As part of a push to remove regulatory hurdles, the bloc also included another proposal on conformity assessments that would help trans-Atlantic exporters cut costs and red-tape on areas including testing, inspection and certification." WSJ 

ON THE WORLD STAGE -- "U.S., North Korea start talks aimed at 2nd Trump-Kim summit," by AP's Matt Lee and Deb Riechmann: "The U.S. and North Korea began highly anticipated talks Friday aimed at resuming stalled efforts to end the North's nuclear weapons program by arranging a second summit between President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un.

"Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and North Korea's former spy chief, Kim Yong Chol, did not respond to reporters' questions before their meeting at a Washington hotel. Pompeo, Kim and Steve Biegun, the special U.S. envoy for North Korea negotiations, stood silently as photographers took photos. Pompeo and Kim had plans to go to the White House later for a possible meeting with Trump." AP 

-- NAHAL TOOSI: "White House says Trump is meeting with North Korean official": "That the official, Kim Yong-chol, was in Washington at all was itself noteworthy. North Korean diplomats in the U.S. are generally barred from traveling much beyond New York City, where they have an office at the United Nations. ...

"Kim's arrival in Washington - he landed late Thursday - indicated that the Trump administration is eager to jump-start stalled nuclear negotiations with Pyongyang." POLITICO 

2020 WATCH -- NYT'S LISA LERER in Huntsville, Ala.: "Doug Jones Risks His Alabama Senate Seat Over the Shutdown and the Wall": "Mr. Jones is the only red-state Senate Democrat up for re-election in 2020. By taking on President Trump and the border wall, which are both popular in Alabama, and refusing to give ground on the shutdown, the senator may be the last "Doug Jones Democrat" to win here anytime soon.

"Alabama has one of the largest groups of federal workers in the country, and the economic pain of those who are out of work because of the shutdown is rippling through local businesses across the state." NYT 

-- HOLLY OTTERBEIN: "Embattled GOP chief in Pennsylvania presents plan to save Trump in 2020": "Val DiGiorgio, chairman of Pennsylvania's GOP, said his 2020 strategy includes 'bringing Trump volunteers who were active in 2016 into the party proper,' using text messaging to recruit party activists, and identifying issues that motivate the state's swing voters. ...

"Trump's reelection team expects to huddle with other state party chairs in the weeks ahead to sketch out their 2020 plans. Thursday's summit with the Pennsylvania GOP was the first such meeting this year, underscoring the importance of the state to Trump's reelection efforts." POLITICO 

-- ALEX ISENSTADT: "New Trump campaign hires to focus on convention delegates, party organization": "The new hires will help run the campaign's delegate and party organization arm, which is waging an elaborate nationwide campaign to ensure the delegates selected to attend the nominating convention are staunch White House allies - not Never Trump Republicans. 

"The group will be focused on delving into the granular state-by-state battles that will ensue in the coming months and which will determine the composition of the convention delegation. ... Joining the campaign will be former White House official Nick Trainer and David Huguenel, who most recently worked at the Republican consulting firm Jamestown Associates. Former RNC officials Josh Findlay and Ashley Walukevich will also be coming aboard." POLITICO 

OH! ... "Bob Casey passes on 2020 presidential bid," by Caitlin Oprysko

REBECCA MORIN: "DNC: Target of Russia cyberattack after 2018 midterms" 

CLIMATE WATCH -- "Pentagon Warns of Dire Risk to Bases, Troops From Climate Change," by Bloomberg's Anthony Capaccio, Jennifer Dlouhy and Ari Natter: "The 22-page assessment delivered to Congress on Thursday says about two-thirds of 79 mission-essential military installations in the U.S. that were reviewed are vulnerable to current or future flooding, with more than half vulnerable to current or future drought. About half also are at risk from wildfires, including the threat of mudslides and erosion from rains following the blazes." Bloomberg 

COMING ATTRACTIONS -- Davos Playbook will be at the World Economic Forum Annual Summit in Switzerland, providing insight into one of the most exclusive global forums kicking off tomorrow. Sign up 

MEDIAWATCH -- Naftali Bendavid is joining WaPo as deputy campaign editor on Jan. 28. He previously was an editor in the Wall Street Journal's Washington bureau. 

SPOTTED: Sen. Ben Sasse (R-Neb.), speaking on a cellphone without a coat, outside the south gate of Nationals Park on Thursday around noon. The Senate GOP had its retreat there yesterday.

TRANSITIONS -- BUSH ALUMNI: Don Evans will be chairman of the Permian Strategic Partnership. He was Commerce secretary under President George W. Bush. ... Alisha Morris will be VP of operations at BlueLabs. She spent nearly ten years at LEVICK.
           
A message from the National Retail Federation:

                        
Follow us on Twitter
      
Anna Palmer @apalmerdc
 
Jake Sherman @JakeSherman
 
Daniel Lippman @dlippman
 
Eli Okun @eliokun
 
Garrett Ross @garrett_ross
              
Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family
 
 Playbook  |  Playbook PM  |  California Playbook  |  Florida Playbook  |  Illinois Playbook  |  Massachusetts Playbook  |  New Jersey Playbook  |  New York Playbook  |  Brussels Playbook  |  London Playbook 
 
View all our politics and policy newsletters
      
Follow us
                To change your alert settings, please go to http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=b975d3267c020fc9ef326e1068bb8643802130c939401491fce0c4aa9cf367e837f720e174c40e74210d6beee9514c97 or http://click.politicoemail.com/profile_center.aspx?qs=c1c81b2ef644fde1dd3c1f6178ef6a8ea3ee660992025bd4091cebaf0a90b2fb6ecf5db275754d82e19cf466493079fe5694af04019136224ec41154ed1d384a
This email was sent to [email-masked] by: POLITICO, LLC 1000 Wilson Blvd. Arlington, VA, 22209, USA

To unsubscribe,https://www.politico.com/_unsubscribe?e=00000168-6224-de11-af7d-ee368fcd0000&u=0000014e-f0fe-dd93-ad7f-f8fffbc40000&s=648df8bd4468946f0e73ec9ee7c820b895d934aaa13d85b8a209ec7dfdd562c015562dd50d053693c52205c30c18eabfe37039379db647622d32462b5b117e91