Subject: POLITICO Playbook: Understanding the Senate’s vote plan
From: "Anna Palmer Jake Sherman Daniel Lippman" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 23 Jan 2019 05:09:46 -0600
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Presented by BP: Playbook is POLITICO's must-read briefing on what's driving the day                Jan 23, 2019 View in browser                   
 By Anna Palmer, Jake Sherman and Daniel Lippman 
             
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              DRIVING THE DAY      
NEW ... POLITICO/MORNING CONSULT POLL ... "Poll: Shutdown, Russia drive Trump to all-time high disapproval," by Rebecca Morin: "Nearly 6-in-10 voters - 57 percent - disapprove of Trump's job performance, compared to the 40 percent that approve. In addition, 54 percent of voters blame Trump and Republicans on Capitol Hill for the government shutdown. Only 35 percent blame congressional Democrats." POLITICO

UNDERSTANDING THE SENATE'S VOTE PLAN ... SHUTDOWN ... DAY 33 ... ON THURSDAY, the Senate will vote on two different bills: PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP'S plan, to reopen government alongside a short-term DACA patch and other immigration changes, and a clean funding bill that would reopen government through Feb. 8.

-- BOTH OF THESE BILLS are likely to fail. Neither is expected to reach 60 votes. What this does do is it gives senators a chance to vote on government funding -- something MAJORITY LEADER MITCH MCCONNELL'S Senate has not done in a few weeks. 

-- FOR THE RECORD: There will be Republicans who vote for the clean stopgap bill -- but, as of now, not enough to reopen the government. Ending this standoff doesn't appear to be the purpose of this exercise at this point. This is a pressure-valve release, of sorts.

-- WHAT THIS WILL DO: THIS SHOWS THE PRESIDENT that neither option is workable, at the moment, and some dynamic has to change if government is going to reopen. The POLITICO ledeall

-- HOUSE REPUBLICANS used this strategy when they were in the majority. It allows frustrated lawmakers to vote. It gets members on the record about where they stand on the president's proposal, and the clean government-funding bill.

-- WHITE HOUSE aides keep telling us the president will not reopen government unless it includes a plan to build his wall.

SNEAK PEEK ... THE PRESIDENT is holding a call today "on the President's Immigration Proposal with State, Local, and Community Leaders." It's at 10:30 a.m. He will also meet with conservative leaders on his immigration proposal at 3 p.m. in the Roosevelt Room.

HEADS UP ... PEOPLE CLOSE TO TRUMP believe he will give a State of the Union outside of D.C. BENEFITS: He gets outside of D.C. DRAWBACKS: If this just turns into another campaign rally, it isn't a State of the Union. The president's rallying his base won't help get a deal to reopen the government.

THE WHITE HOUSE'S NEW TALKING POINTS ... SARAH HUCKABEE SANDERS talking with SEAN HANNITY on FOX NEWS last night: "Democrats claim to care about these people, claim to want to fix problems, yet they don't want to do anything about it. They want to ignore the problem and attack the president. And I think that is a very, very sad day and I think it shows us what a leader is and what a leader isn't. The president is the leader and Nancy Pelosi is nothing more than an obstructionist."

-- ON THE SOTU: "I don't know if there would be a place that all of those members would attend, but the president's focus is on speaking to the American people, it's something he does every single day. Nobody does it better. And if Nancy Pelosi chooses to go in that direction the president will continue to speak to the American people, and I'm sure he'll do that on that evening as well."

Good Wednesday morning. The White House press secretary has not "taken questions from the podium since Dec. 18, and she appeared just once in September, November and December." NYT

AGENDA, STALLED ... NYT'S PETER BAKER: "At the One-Issue White House, the Standoff Over a Border Wall Displaces Other Priorities": "For the last month, President Trump's public schedule has mostly been a sparse document. The one issued for Tuesday, for instance, listed only his daily intelligence briefing and lunch with the vice president. No new policy announcements. No new cabinet appointments.

"As the partial government shutdown enters its 33rd day, Democrats accuse Mr. Trump of hostage-taking tactics, but among the hostages has been his own presidency. Other than his single-minded pursuit of a border wall, Mr. Trump has all but put on hold advancing the rest of his agenda. It has become, as one administration official put it, a one-issue White House. ... 

"[I]n his inbox are a slew of important vacancies to fill, including defense secretary, interior secretary and chief of staff. His attorney general, United Nations ambassador and Environmental Protection Agency chief are all serving in an acting capacity while waiting for Senate confirmation votes of his nominees. 

"The White House on Tuesday sent 51 judicial nominations to the Senate, returning names that had gone unacted on last year. Mr. Trump expressed no urgency when asked by reporters recently about all the acting officials in the upper echelon of his administration. 'I like acting,' he said. 'It gives me more flexibility.'" NYT

-- FT'S TOM MITCHELL and YUAN YAN in Beijing and JAMES POLITI: "U.S. turns down China offer of preparatory trade talks": "The Trump administration rejected an offer by two Chinese vice-ministers to travel to the U.S. this week for preparatory trade talks because of a lack of progress on two key issues, highlighting the difficulty that Washington and Beijing will face in trying to reach an agreement by a deadline of March 1. 

"This week's planned trip by Wang Shouwen and Liao Min was intended to pave the way for a higher-level meeting in Washington on January 30 and 31 by Liu He, China vice-premier, and Robert Lighthizer, U.S. trade representative. 

"But, according to people briefed on the negotiations, U.S. officials cancelled this week's face-to-face meetings with Mr. Wang, a vice-minister of commerce, and Mr. Liao, a vice-minister of finance, because of a lack of progress on 'forced' technology transfers and potentially far-reaching 'structural' reforms to China's economy." FT

         
THE IMPACT ...

-- CNN'S MICHELLE KOSINSKI (@MichLKosinski): "NEW: The State Department has just had to cancel its big international conference on BORDER SECURITY and preventing WMD across borders... due to the shutdown over...yes, BORDER SECURITY." CNN story

-- KATY O'DONNELL: "Emergency plan for federal workers: Credit cards, pawnshops, second jobs": "Many of the 800,000 federal government employees forced to go on unpaid leave or work without wages are running up credit card debt, taking out loans and even flocking to pawn shops." POLITICO

-- WAPO'S DANIELLE PAQUETTE, LISA REIN, JEFF STEIN and KIMBERLY KINDY: "Hundreds of IRS employees are skipping work. That could delay tax refunds": "Hundreds of Internal Revenue Service employees have received permission to skip work during the partial government shutdown due to financial hardship, and union leaders said Tuesday that they expected absences to surge as part of a coordinated protest that could hamper the government's ability to process taxpayer refunds on time." WaPo

-- "Furloughed Workers On the Hook for Work Expenses They Can't Get Reimbursed," by Bloomberg's Alan Levin

BULLETIN ... PETE BUTTIGIEG, the mayor of South Bend, Ind., is launching an exploratory committee to run for president in 2020. Video

SCOOP -- ELIANA JOHNSON and NANCY COOK: "Trump's liaison to Congress eyeing exit": "Shahira Knight, the president's legislative affairs director and a central figure in the White House's shutdown negotiations with Congress, is planning to leave the White House in the coming months, according to four sources familiar with her plans. 

"Knight's talk of exiting a job she took less than seven months ago comes as she plays what some call a thankless role in talks between President Donald Trump and Capitol Hill lawmakers skeptical of cutting a deal with her erratic boss. In recent weeks, she has taken a back seat to the stepped-up efforts of Vice President Mike Pence and Trump's son-in-law and senior adviser, Jared Kushner. ...

"The White House pushed back on the notion that Knight was set to depart. 'There is no truth to this rumor. Shahira is focused on being the director of the Office of Legislative Affairs,' said deputy White House press secretary Lindsay Walters." POLITICO

-- "White House to name Grogan top policy aide," by Adam Cancryn and Dan Diamond

ANDREW DESIDERIO and HEATHER CAYGLE: "Ocasio-Cortez and liberal freshmen join Oversight Committee": "Reps. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.), Rashida Tlaib (D-Mich.), Ayanna Pressley (D-Mass.) and Ro Khanna (D-Calif.) won spots on the high-profile committee on Tuesday, two sources told POLITICO.

"The new members, all of whom are freshmen except Khanna, have been critical of President Donald Trump, and their addition to the committee comes as Democrats have pledged to launch wide-ranging investigations into the president and his administration. ... 

"'If I based the choices going on the committee based on what people said or their reputations or whatever, I probably wouldn't have a committee,' Cummings told POLITICO. 'I am excited - there were a lot of people that wanted to come on our committee.'" POLITICO

-- OGR usually isn't a huge get. But with Trump in the White House and Democrats in control of the House, it's a hot assignment. ... 

... THINK OF THIS: OGR has a monster, headline-grabbing lineup: GOP: Jim Jordan (Ohio) and Mark Meadows (N.C.). DEM: Elijah Cummings (Md.), Gerry Connolly (Va.), Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (N.Y.), Rashida Tlaib (Mich.) and Ayanna Pressley (Mass.).

         
ELIANA JOHNSON and DARREN SAMUELSOHN: "Trump exasperated by gaffe-prone Giuliani": "Rudy Giuliani has a growing list of enemies in the White House - which now includes his boss, President Donald Trump. 

"Trump was apoplectic after a pair of weekend media interviews by his personal lawyer, in which Giuliani said that the president had been involved in discussions to build a Trump Tower Moscow through the end of the 2016 campaign - a statement that enraged Trump because it contradicted his own public position, according to two sources close to the president.

"Giuliani's statement was the latest in a series of remarks over several months that have required walk-backs or reversals, and Trump spent much of Sunday and Monday fuming to aides and friends about his lawyer's missteps. Most of those people share Trump's frustration, noting that the former New York City mayor often appears to lack a mastery of the facts of Trump's legal headaches." POLITICO

BUZZFEED'S AZEEN GHORAYSHI: "Trump's Lawyer Said There Were 'No Plans' For Trump Tower Moscow. Here They Are": "Rudy Giuliani claims the Moscow tower was barely more than a notion. 'There were no drafts. Nothing in the file.' Documents obtained by BuzzFeed News tell a different story."

TRUMP'S WEDNESDAY -- In addition to holding a phone call in the morning and meeting with conservative leaders this afternoon on his immigration proposal, Trump will host a roundtable on drug pricing at 2 p.m. in the Roosevelt Room. 
                 PLAYBOOK READS         

PHOTO DU JOUR: Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) greets furloughed federal workers at the World Central Kitchen alongside celebrity chef Jos&eacute; Andr&eacute;s on Tuesday, Jan. 22. | M. Scott Mahaskey/POLITICO
   
2020 WATCH -- NOLAN MCCASKILL in Columbia, S.C.: "Kamala Harris' hidden army": "When Kamala Harris makes her first trip this year to South Carolina on Friday, she'll be surrounded by thousands of potential voters at a fundraiser hosted by a group of the state's most powerful voting bloc: black women. The California senator won't have to make a hard sell at the annual 'Pink Ice Gala'- as a member of the Alpha Kappa Alpha Sorority, she's already got a powerful connection to the organizers.

"Harris pledged the sorority - the oldest Greek-letter organization established by African-American college-educated women - as a student at Howard University. Now, more than three decades later, she is leaning on the group's influential network to advance her prospects in the 2020 Democratic presidential primary." POLITICO

ZACH WARMBRODT: "Waters to call Equifax to testify as new era of oversight begins": "House Financial Services Chairwoman Maxine Waters is planning to have the CEOs of the three major credit reporting firms appear before her committee next month, people familiar with the matter said, one of her first big moves to ramp up oversight of the finance industry. Top executives from Equifax, Experian and TransUnion are expected to appear at a hearing anticipated for Feb. 26." POLITICO

FOR YOUR RADAR -- "Around the globe, Trump's style is inspiring imitators and unleashing dark impulses," by WaPo's Griff Witte, Carol Morello, Shibani Mahtani and Anthony Faiola: "They make a show of putting their own countries first and breezily dismiss concerns about international law or human rights. They seek to bend the rules to their will, excoriating 'the deep state' for getting in their way. And when they are challenged by the press or other critics, they have a two-word rejoinder: fake news. 

"In countries around the globe - from Brazil to the Philippines, and in many less prominent places in between - a generation of leaders who resemble President Trump in both style and substance is rising, consolidating power and growing bolder in its willingness to flout democratic principles and norms.

"The strongman style of leadership is not new, of course, and it is not always obvious who is inspiring whom. ... But in interviews on four continents, diplomats, rights activists and foreign officials said that after two years of Trump using the world's most powerful megaphone to cheer authoritarians, bully democratic allies and denigrate traditional American values, the impact on how others govern is becoming clear." WaPo

WSJ: "Executives in Davos Put Brave Face on Jittery Mood," by Alex Frangos and Deborah Ball in Davos, Switzerland: "Political paralysis in major developed economies, frayed trading links and concerns about concentration of corporate power created a jittery mood among business executives at the annual World Economic Forum.

"While many corporate bigwigs in Davos put on a brave face and said the economy has overcome the short-term challenges that manifested in a major market selloff at the end of 2018, there was a brooding sense that major risks lie ahead." WSJ

-- Follow what's happening at one of the most exclusive global forums through our free Davos Playbook newsletter. Sign up here ... POLITICO Europe also has a live blog. The latest

COMING ATTRACTIONS -- Get "Freezin' for a Reason" on Saturday, Feb. 2 with Special Olympics DC. POLITICO is proud to support the "Polar Plunge," an annual benefit to raise funds for more than 1,600 Special Olympics DC athletes. Proceeds provide sports, health and inclusion programs that benefit both children and adults with intellectual disabilities in the District. To register as an individual or a team, or join an existing team: Click here

REMEMBERING RUSSELL BAKER -- NYT's Robert McFadden: "Russell Baker, the two-time Pulitzer Prize-winning author whose whimsical, irreverent 'Observer' column appeared in The New York Times and hundreds of other newspapers for 36 years and turned a backwoods-born Virginian into one of America's most celebrated writers, died on Monday at his home in Leesburg, Va. He was 93. ... Mr. Baker, along with the syndicated columnist Art Buchwald (who died in 2007), was one of the best-known newspaper humorists of his time." NYT
                 PLAYBOOKERS      
SPOTTED: Mick Mulvaney shopping at Streets on 13th and Mass on Tuesday night at around 8 p.m. ... Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) and Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart (R-Fla.) in business class on AA1989 from Miami to DCA.

TRANSITIONS -- Mike Gottlieb, former Obama White House lawyer, has joined Willkie Farr. He will head the law firm's crisis management practice. Gottlieb was most recently at Boies Schiller. ... Sarah Swinehart is heading to the ONE Campaign to work as communications director for North America. She most recently was a VP at Edelman on the media services and strategy team.

BIRTHDAY OF THE DAY: Eric Koch, managing principal at Precision Strategies. What he's read recently: "I finished 'To Hell and Back' by Ian Kershaw a few years [ago], but I keep coming back to it because the central themes are so relevant today. Where most books look at just Germany and Italy, Kershaw zooms out to understand fascism from a wider perspective: how and why fascist movements grew across Europe, why they were appealing and what prevented governments and movements from stopping them. It's very haunting but topical." Playbook Plus Q&A

BIRTHDAYS: POLITICO is 12 ... Norah O'Donnell (hat tip: Samantha Graham) ... John Heilemann is 53 (h/t T.J. Ducklo) ... Sen. Tom Carper (D-Del.) is 72 ... POLITICO's Scott Mahaskey and Annie Snider ... WaPo's Patrick Reis (h/t Kristin Roberts) ... Annie Shuppy ... Mercury co-chairman Antonio Villaraigosa is 66 ... Alexander Castellanos is 35 ... Aliyah Frumin ... Christina Lonigro ... Rep. Lloyd Smucker (R-Pa.) is 55 ... former Rep. Bud Shuster (R-Pa.) is 87 ... former Rep. Joe Baca (D-Calif.) is 72 ... Mariska Hargitay ... Brian Cooke, a DoD program officer at the Institute of International Education and a NAM alum, is 36 ... Seth Wickersham, senior writer at ESPN The Magazine ... DoD's
 Bryn Woollacott ... HUD's Barbara Gruson ... Lesa Dietrick of Ice Miller Strategies ... Isabella Ulloa of Urban Alliance and an Obama DHS alum (h/ts Erin Waters and Todd Breasseale) ... 

... ESA alum Mike Gallagher ... Missy Foxman, ESA's director of federal gov't affairs ... Adweek's Kelsey Sutton ... Gavin Barwell is 47 ... Aretae Wyler ... Erik Olson ... Laura Keiter, comms director for Media Matters for America (h/t Bradley Beychok) ... Matthew Hoppler ... Mark Tullis ... Alex Parker ... Harvard Institute of Politics' Amy Howell (h/t Jeff Solnet) ... Katherine Grainger ... Marygrace Galston ... Suzanne Kennedy ... Adam Parker ... Peter Rosenstein ... Edelman's Daniel Workman ... Sarah West ... Michelle Cangelosi ... Jay Riestenberg of Common Cause ... Jessica Binzoni ... Erika Gudmundson ... Hayden Pruett Wilson ... Princess Caroline of Monaco is 62 (h/t AP)
               
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